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Post by sdiaz1 on Jun 23, 2014 12:25:04 GMT -5
Entering this morning Justin Upton is 7 for his last 41, Chris Davis is 7 for his last 47, Shin Soo Choo is 8 for his last 46, Josh Donaldson is 8 for his last 50, Matt Carpernter is 6 for his last 38, Jayson Werth is 8 for his last 51, etc etc. I don't see how a 21 year old rookie (even one as insanely talented as Xander) going 4 for 47 is all that shocking.
This is a really tiny tiny sample.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jun 21, 2014 2:16:21 GMT -5
This guy on OTM says he lives in Cuba and comps him more to ViciedoHe also compared him to Juan Carlos Linares which would certainly be damning someone with faint praise. For every Puig or Abreau coming from Cuba there are many more busts like Linares, Hinojosa, Viciedo, etc. it is even worse now that agents like Borass, Jay z, etc driving up the prices for even mediocre international players. How did the evaluate compare him to both Linares and Viciedo? They are very different players. If you were to mash up the two players and get Viciedo's offensive profile and Linares' defensive profile you would basically get Josh Reddick, who is a 3 win player. (This is not me implying any type of ceiling or projection for the guy, it is just an honest question.)
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jun 4, 2014 11:46:11 GMT -5
With the loss of Pollock, Arizona currently has an outfield of Parra and two journeymen who if are lucky will produce at something like replacement level. Obviously they are not a team that is in contention, but I still have a hard time seeing them rolling out an entire AAA outfield intentionally.
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Post by sdiaz1 on May 22, 2014 0:10:19 GMT -5
Arguing that the Red Sox are unwilling to splash money on players from Cuba or Japan on the basis of 6 specific cases (Puig, Cespedes, Abreu, Darvish, Tanaka, and Soler)seems really silly. Even more so when Boston was the second or third highest bidder on one of those players and were also the highest bidders on Jose Iglesias.
Yes in hindsight,it would have been awesome to have any of those players. But the fact is that the success that they have had was far from guaranteed*. Committing north of 30 million dollars** and a roster space to guy who you have only scouted against amateur competition is a risky proposition, regardless of how young or physically gifted the player may be. The front office has spent money in the draft, in the IFA market, and on Free agency. Maybe they can be afforded some moderation in this particular market.
* Some of these players still have some lingering questions. A)Abreu's plate discipline has been much worse than initially expected, and as of right now his monster season is being propped up by an unsustainable HR/FB% of 37.5%. It is certainly possible that he does have a specific skill there that will result in a high HR rate, but there is now way that he will be able to sustain anything north of 25% for a season. Though I will also say that it is possible that Abreu will improve his BB%. We have seen a lot of really good hitters see a decrease in walk rate when they are on fire like he has been. B) While I love me some Jorge Soler, and that I am convinced that he has the highest ceiling of anyone in the milb other than Buxton, he has not been able to stay healthy for more than a few weeks at a time. Oh and yes he is going to DL again.
**The secret is out. Cespedes and Puig are bargains. But neither Abreu or Tanaka (I bet he is happy about that opt out) were signed to deals that give any extra value. Abreu is being paid like a 3 win player and with his limited defensive value he will have to hit like Manny circa 2004-2007 be worth any more than 3 wins a season (yes look it up, despite WRC+ of over 150 for that three year stretch he was worth 9.4 WAR - granted he was laughably bad in the field). Meanwhile Tanaka is being paid like a front end of the rotation starter- and while he has been a legitimate ace, even if he puts up six wins he is not providing that much extra value.
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Post by sdiaz1 on May 13, 2014 22:52:54 GMT -5
He is not defecting, he is there due to an agreement between Cuban baseball and the Mexican League. He is using a Dominican passport due to the embargo because the Mexican League has some sort of affiliation with MiLB which could cause problems with the US government. I wonder how he got a Domican passport when even some people born in the Dominican can't get it. You have to love how all things seem possible when money and political capital are exchanging hands. Anyways, while not in this case (as The Mexican League is not a huge step up in quality compared to Cuba's) it will be interesting to see how Cuban players will perform playing freely* in professional leagues for actual money. Frederich Cepeda agreed to a million and half dollar contract with Sancti Spiritus in Japan and apparently Yuliesky Gourriel is following suit. I imagine that there will be quite a queue of peloteros at every party event and revolutionary parade trying to earn points with those that that can grant them such visas.
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Post by sdiaz1 on May 9, 2014 13:23:00 GMT -5
As you already hinted both players are old for their league (Asauje is 22 in Low A and Gragnai is 23 in High A), however as again I am sure that you are aware, both players profile best as second base/utility types. The system is stacked with players up the middle and the truth is that even despite how well the play a promotion may be difficult as Portland will not be moving either Betts or Marrerro soon because it is clear that Pawtucket's infield is more or less designed to primarily carry shuttle guys in case of emergency for the Sox (Roberts & Holt).
So while we should take note of their age when evaluating their performance against inferior competition, I would be wary of jumping to negative conclusions about these two based on the lack of promotions (and honestly, they only seem to be one level down the curve right now).
In regards to the specific players, I can't say that I have ever heard or read any piece of substance on Gragnai, but I do seem to remember that Asauje was the first guy that we took after the 10th round of last year, where teams can spend more freely. He was a modest over-slot sign, according to his bio here he signed for 100K. So he is definitely a guy to at least know.
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Post by sdiaz1 on May 7, 2014 1:30:00 GMT -5
I know that we all like to poke fun at Jesus Montero, but he was the centerpiece of a deal that brought his initial team a 21 year old starter coming off a 3.2 WAR season where he posted a 3.52 XFIP in 170 IP. If we can do that with any of the guys we sign or draft this year, I will be rather happy.
Obviously, injuries likely robbed the Yankees of the young cost controlled front end of the rotation starter that they thought they had acquired, but at that time it looked like that big bonus they gave to Montero was definitely worth it.
EDIT: I would also like to add, that I think we would all be content having a 24yr old first base prospect in AAA posting a WRC+ of 125. Yes, he is a bad bodied first basemen, who has defensive limitations and yes it is the PCL, but to write him off entirely at this point would be foolish
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Post by sdiaz1 on May 6, 2014 12:53:04 GMT -5
I am really excited about the prospect of attaining Espinoza, he is the type of high ceiling amateur prospect that competitive teams only have rare opportunities to acquire. He alone would likely put us at our max for the season, and with other very intriguing prospects out there you have to at least consider rolling the dice.
Also it is not like the punishment is that bad. Only having a $300,000 cap per player certainly excludes a team from bidding on the highest prized talents, but in the IFA market there are always players signed at that range that go on and become legitimate milb prospects. So yeah lets go crazy this year, and next summer we can be creative and sign the most intriguing lottery pick guys for around 250,000.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Apr 4, 2014 14:53:47 GMT -5
Not that it was representative of his true talent level, but last season Gomez was worth 26.3 runs in the field. Sure, there is a part of that which is small sample noise akin to the year Pedey was worth 20 runs, but the guy is just flat out an amazing fielder. He saved two runs there.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Mar 22, 2014 12:19:07 GMT -5
Not that is happens, but I will be dreaming of a situation where Rondon slips past the first five pick and then his bonus demands cause teams with only one first rounder to not gamble on missing out on first round pick. All resulting in Boston nabbing him at 26.
One can dream right?
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Post by sdiaz1 on Mar 21, 2014 13:06:33 GMT -5
Will he still be able to make the jump to affiliated ball this summer or will have to stay behind in XST or instructs as he sorts through the legal repercussions? Because missing this upcoming year could certainly be a major impediment to his development.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Mar 21, 2014 12:52:33 GMT -5
But I keep coming back because I am curious if anyone will possibly add something constructive to the dialogue and explain how these current legal problems will likely affect Denney's playing situation. Is he going to be stuck in XST as the charges go through the system or will he be able to play affiliated ball throughout most of the summer? How could be this entire "ordeal" impact his development - as a result of a lack of playing and getting reps not in any sort of holistic sense. I am not asking for a lot ,just baseball based discussion on a baseball prospect forum. That and a unicorn. This thread at almost six pages has an incredible lack of any actual news or baseball related posts. And no being a good person has nothing to do with developing into a solid professional ballplayer: Ugi Urbina, Jose Canseco, Brett Myers, Sydney Ponson, Milton Bradley, Scott Erickson, Kirby Puckett, Willfredo Cordero, Dante Bichete and so on.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Mar 21, 2014 1:11:12 GMT -5
I honestly could care less what type of person the kid is, and this entire five pages of back and forth filled with couch-chair psychology, moral judgments, and hyperbole does nothing for me.
But I keep coming back because I am curious if anyone will possibly add something constructive to the dialogue and explain how these current legal problems will likely affect Denney's playing situation. Is he going to be stuck in XST as the charges go through the system or will he be able to play affiliated ball throughout most of the summer? How could be this entire "ordeal" impact his development - as a result of a lack of playing and getting reps not in any sort of holistic sense.
Please don't respond with hypotheticals about how is drinking/ bad attitude/ cockiness will limit his ability to develop, or how he will drink himself into a hole. After all in many ways Mickey Mantle checked most of those boxes and though his life may have been a mess he was still a good ballplayer - and maybe I am an asshole, but to me the kid is a ballplayer, the type of man he becomes means next to nothing to me as long as he provides value to the team.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Feb 25, 2014 0:43:50 GMT -5
sdiaz: I can guarantee you if Iglesias puts up a .600 -.620 OPS Detroit will look for a replacement. Iglesias will need to be in the .680 to .720 range to make it in the american league. At best, Iglesias is a national league player. He basically has the same relative impact on an american league lineup as a pitcher in the national league. First of all, while convenient and easy to use, OPS is not a very useful stat because it a) values OBP% and SLG% equally, when in fact a point of OBP is worth over 1.5 points of SLG and b)OPS is not park adjusted. Really we should be using WRC+ for this discussion, but because you selected OPS (a stat that btw undervalues Iglesias as he is more OBP heavy than SLG heavy) I will go ahead and use it as well. Last season the following seven players got over 90 starts for American League teams and OPSed below your arbitrary magic threshold. I will also note that none of these players, with the exception of Elvis Andrus, are currently anywhere as good in the field as Jose Iglesias is. Eduardo Nunez (NYY).678 –Slugging Heavy 83 WRC+Kawasaki (TOR) - .638 – Granted he played so much as a result of Reyes being hurt 78 WRC+Alcides Escobar (KCR)- .559 49 WRC+Pedro Florimon (MIN)- .611 68 WRC+Elvis Andrus (TEX) -.659 78 WRC+Brendan Ryan (SEA & NYY)- .520 44 WRC+Johnathan Villar (HOU) -.640 80 WRC+Yeah, some of these players played for teams that in no shape had any aspirations for contention. But Andrus, Nunez, and Escobar each played for a team that were playoff contenders throughout the season. It should also be noted that the four projection systems on Fangraphs have Iglesias pegged for a WRC+ of 76,77,77, &80. If he does that, he is practically last season's version of Elvis Andrus without the speed but with slightly better defense.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Feb 24, 2014 14:14:26 GMT -5
For the hundredth million time, it does not matter that Jose Iglesias can't hit. As a shortstop with 80 defense and only league average base running he would need to put up a an OBP and SLG of only .280/.340 to worth 2.5 WAR in 650 Plate Appearances. That is a WRC significantly lower than what Oliver, Streamer, and Bill James project for him as well. If he could hit at .320/.404 clip which is league average, he would be a 5 win player, so if your bar is he can't hit at a league average rate, your bar is that he can't be a perennial 5 Win player.
As far as the Cuban Gravy Train is concerned; there are a ton of excellent Cuban ball players right now in the Majors and high minors and it is exciting (at least for me - but I am Cuban). There is Puig, Soler, Cespedes, Iglesias, Jose Fernandez, Jose Abreu, Chapman, and coming soon Carlos Rondon (ok Cuban American). But those players have nothing to do with how much we should be willing to spend on Diaz or Raciel Iglesias. You scout the player not the place of birth, and no the inefficiency here is not that these guys are Cuban. Soler, Cespedes, and Chapman all got over 28 million, Puig got over 40, Abreau got almost 70; hell LA just signed two shortstops this offseason for 25 + and neither of them are all that good. These players carry much more risk, it not an actual market it is more like black jack. Some of these guys have the skills and tools to do well here some do not, the problem is that it is hard to tell until they get here.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Feb 17, 2014 14:16:25 GMT -5
Are you talking about 5 WAR player (in just over 100 games) Yasiel Puig or a different Yasiel Puig? He was great last season. You don't keep players like that in the minors so they can learn how to hit the cut-off man. His plate recognition was poor for a starting RF. He looked foolish on advanced pitches. Yasiel Puig was a 22 year old in his first season of professional baseball and you are shocked that he had poor pitch recognition skills? His Babip was unsustainably high last season (.383) but beyond that there really is not anything to get to worried about in his statistical profile walk rate above 8%, k rate in the low 20's, an ISO over .200. He does have a high O-Swing% of 38.9% but of those pitches he made contact 53% of the time. That can be improved upon.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jan 25, 2014 2:54:10 GMT -5
It is kind of remarkable that in the same of-season we sign Mijares for a milb deal worth upwards to one million, while the Yankees go out and commit 2 years and 7 million to Matt Thonton who is 37 and now seems destined to be a Loogy. Obviously Thornton was quite good from 2009-2011, but going forward it is hard to see the difference between the two .(other than the fact that Mijares is 8 years younger)
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jan 22, 2014 22:21:14 GMT -5
I have to say that I agree with rip here. I really do not see how there is much upside in this move. His last year being either healthy or productive was during the George W Bush administration. Hell, Trey Ball was 13.
I always liked Sizemore, he was one the best players from 2005 -2008. And I am happy that he is in our organization, but I think that it is silly that he got a MLB contract. At this point he is Rocco Baldeli (another guy I liked) part 2. I think that a milb contract is more appropriate.
That, or we could have signed him to be our primary second basemen. (BRob Slam)
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jan 3, 2014 12:30:12 GMT -5
A player who I always think of as a good comp for Cecchini who has had some seasons with excellent offensive production with limited home runs is Alex Gordon. In 2012 he hit 14 Home Runs in 721 Plate Appearances (1 in every 51.5PA) and still posted a WRC+ of 125. In 2011 he hit 20 HR in 690 PA (1 in every 35 PA - So I guess just a hair above average for the league as a whole, but way below the power total generally associated with a corner outfielder) and posted a WRC+ of 140.
These guys may be the exception, but they are not as exceptional as you would initially believe.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jan 3, 2014 11:53:17 GMT -5
If I was Lord High Commissioner for a day, here's what I would do: Any SIGNIFICANT records made by "juiced" players would be erased. Aaron would still have the HR record. Maris, too. What those guys did was artificial. And now they should be rewarded? Negative. So, that said, here's my HOF .... Just thinking what Ruth and Williams would have done with a needle. 1000 HRs? Ty Cobb on 'roid rage? Not that I have any interest in rehashing the entire Performance Enhancing Drugs and the Hall of Fame argument, but I do think that it is worth noting that the Hall of Fame memorializes and records the history of baseball as a museum, not as some sort of high temple where common men worship the Devine. As such, a museum can not play counterfactuals or propose an alternate history. The players who you wish to keep out are some of the most important players in the history of baseball, they beat records, won awards, world series rings, reinvigorated America's passion for baseball, and helped make everyone rich from the owners to the beat writers who became tv personalities and national columnists. There are many dark moments in baseball, several that are darker than the widespread use of steroids. We have racists and segregationists in the hall of fame, there are anti-Semites, womanizers and wife beaters, drunkards, and overall crappy people who all did worse things than stick a needle in the arse
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jan 3, 2014 1:13:36 GMT -5
Though I do agree that McGwire should eventually make the Hall of Fame (obviously I do not really care about the steroid thing), I would have a hard time justifying picking him over some of the other guys on the ballot.
My Hall of Fame Ballot: Gregg Maddux Barry Bonds Roger Clemens Curt Schilling Jeff Bagwell Tim Raines Allan Trammell Larry Walker Frank Thomas Tom Glavine
With the following guys just missing: Mike Mussina, Rafael Palmeiro, Edgar Martinez, and Mark McGwire.
Also I really would like to see the Veterans Committee to enshrine Minnie Minoso. He Posted 50 WAR, while being frozen out by the Indians until he was 25, and was the first big Latin American Star.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jan 3, 2014 0:46:17 GMT -5
The average right fielder had a 105 WRC+ in 2013. Nava's was 128, Pedroia's was 115, and Ellsbury's was 113. 27.5% of all qualified hitters with a below average PA/HR had a wRC+ over 105. So yeah, it is harder to be an above average hitter at any position when you have below average power, but it is certainly possible that a player with below average power can be an above average offensive right fielder. With that said, I don't think RF is the right spot for Betts. His arm isn't great and his defensive skill set profiles better up the middle, where he is more valuable anyways. I still think he has an outside shot to play SS and he could work in CF as well. “A lot of good arguments are spoiled by some fool who knows what he is talking about.” - Miguel De Unamuno
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jan 2, 2014 0:30:35 GMT -5
While I do disagree with some of these placements (specifically in regards to Britton and Mercedes) and find his bullishness on Ranaudo to be questionable, I find it entirely unfair to dismiss Sickles' opinions and to label the list as a "joke". For a free non-subscriber website, minor league ball is above most others and Sickles does pretty solid work.
Again, I agree with both Chris and jbberlo (welcome to the site), but I feel like calling the list and or Sickels a "joke" is an overreaction.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jan 1, 2014 14:20:20 GMT -5
So its that time of year again, where hack writers on their self-righteous pedestals decide who should be considered important enough to baseball history to be included in the Baseball Hall of Fame. Of course almost all of these sports writers are rich, old, white dudes who wax poetically about a time when baseball was pure when and honest (you know, back before they let black and brown people play, when players were poorly paid with owners pocketing insane profits, or when much more destructive drugs like amphetamines and cocaine were prevalent in clubhouses) and will decide to ignore some of the greatest players of all time because they used substances that everyone involved in baseball at any level knew were being used.
Anyways, this years ballot is ridiculous. This is in large part because the BBWAA decided to not elect anyone last year in an effort to demonstrate their complete hypocrisy and idiocy. The names include: Barry Bonds Roger Clemens Gregg Maddux Mike Mussina Tom Glavine Jeff Bagwell Curt Schilling Frank Thomas Larry Walker Allan Trammel Rafael Palmeiro Tim Raines Edgar Martinez Craig Biggio Mark McGwire Mike Piazza Sammy Sosa Jeff Kent and for some reason Jack Morris
So who do you pick?
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 30, 2013 12:53:27 GMT -5
Then again, if you told me if I could get 6 years of a Wil Myers type for Felix Doubront I make that deal right now. What if I told you we could trade him Robbie Ray, Ian Kroll, and Steve Lombardozzi? Seriously, we need to stop using the Shields for Myers trade as any kind of barometer for trade discussions, because George Springer is not coming through that door for any of our number three starters.
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