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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 20, 2013 16:19:20 GMT -5
Not that I have any interest in reigniting previous debates on this board, but it should also be noted that the 2012 class was uninspiring. My guess is there are a lot of teams who had not so stellar 2012 drafts. Heck we at least 2 guys who project to be league average contributors within 2-3 years. That is a whole lot more than most teams can say.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 17, 2013 15:21:43 GMT -5
I mentioned the risk of Tanaka transitioning from the NPB to the Majors in my first post and then I again hinted towards the difficulty of projecting Tanaka in my second post. I am labeling Tanaka as either a #2or#3 based on what talent evaluators and scouts have said and that earlier tidbit from Spier. That is only information we have to go on, unless you are inclined to trust davenport translations - which show Tanaka as legitimate #2.
So yeah, the fact that most evaluators have him pegged as a #2 or #3 starter and because the Davenport translations support those claims, that is the assumption that I am working with. Is there risk? Of course. Could the transition be more difficult to him than say Darvish or Kuroda? Possibly. But is there any really compelling reason to not trust the scouts ? Not really.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 17, 2013 14:55:09 GMT -5
The ability to better project Lester is definitely a huge plus, I was just remarking on how posters are negatively responding to the idea that Tanaka may only be a #2 or #3, while not realizing that Lester is certainly no better than a #2 at this point and going forward is much more likely to be a #3. There seems to be a disconnect, that is all.
Again, I am in favor of extending Lester, and with our depth I do not see Tanaka as a good fit for our team. But a 6 year 100 million dollar contract for a 25 year old who profiles as a #2 or #3 is not outlandish at all.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 17, 2013 14:11:58 GMT -5
It is kind of funny to see posters respond to rumors of 6/100 for Tanaka so negatively based on some talent evaluator labeling him more as a number 3 than an ace, then only to immediately say that we should extend Lester to that very same deal.
This is by no means me predicting that Tanaka will be a better pitcher than Lester over the next six seasons, nor is it me dismissing the risk inerrant to a guy switching from the Japanese League to the Majors. Actually, I am in lest try to extend Lester to a 6/100 type deal myself, it is just a matter that fully realize that Lester will be much more like a number three than an actual ace over the life of that extension.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 13, 2013 13:38:29 GMT -5
Mainesox: I'm always curious when somebody cherry picks numbers. Hmm, you conveniently start in 2011. What you are doing is taking one bad season Lester had in 2012 (the only one of his career) and using it to skew the numbers. Rest assured, neither Lester's agent or the other MLB teams will follow such a formula. The market considers career numbers and a players most recent season far more than any other formula. You do realize that almost every projection system weighs a players most recent three years more heavily (almost exclusively) when projecting future performance. The fact that Grienke has been a much better pitcher for 2011,2012,and 2013 means a whole whole lot more than the fact that Lester was better in 2010 and 2008. Lester career win percentage better (not an important consideration really). Actually not a consideration at all. Winning percentage, really. Rck Hellings 1998 season is better using winning percentage than Felix Hernandez's 2011.ERA .10 less than Greinke. Greinke pitched to National League last three years, while Lester has AL in Fenway Park. Only the ignorant wouldn't give Lester the edge here. Lester fewer career innings by 300. FIP would indicate that Lester has actually pitched in a more forgiving environment than Greinke over the past three years. Which would make sense if you think about some of the great defensive players the Sox have had in recent seasonsStrikeouts to innings Lester is a little better. Too bad Greinke has been better in not allowing hits and walksBB/SO Greinke is a little better. Greinke has been pitching against pitcher and #8 batter in NL lineup last three years, while Lester has pitched to D.H. Lester strikeout and bb/so numbers will be viewed as better than Greinke's. Lester has won HUGE post season games in a tough market. Greinke is a question in the post season and has a history of anxiety problems. Yes lets ignore a three year sample in favor of 5 (admittedly awesome) post season starts.Greinke won a cy young in 2009. That's the only thing he has over Lester, and it happened four years ago. Well besides having been better each of the past three seasonsLester has two all star games, while Greinke has one. Scott Cooper was also a two time All StarWhen Greinke got his huge contract he was coming off a year where his ERA was 3.48 in the NL. Lester is coming off a 3.75 ERA in the AL and post season domination (which has not been factored into his ERA for 2013). The ERA adjustment between NL and AL is anywhere from .25 to .50 (I think its .50 but I defer to some our moderator on this issue). So Lester had a better season in 2013 than Greinke had in the year leading up to his contract when considering post season domination. Mainesox, the problem is you didn't really do your homework before making your silly admonition of my opinion. He did, he is factually right in everything he stated. You are the one using bogus stats, awful samples, and silly pseudo sports psychology.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 12, 2013 2:01:27 GMT -5
I was going to disagree with you, but your expert use of capital letters really swayed me.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 12, 2013 0:56:11 GMT -5
The thing about Colon is that he probably knows he has to use PEDs to produce at this point. If he gets caught, he gets caught, but I doubt he is going to put himself in a situation where he goes out there and gets bombed every start. No one wants to subject themselves to that. He'd rather get caught again for PED use than that ( pure speculation on my part OK ). You do realize how ridiculous this statement is. Is he possibly more likely to use PEDs than a guy with no history of using? Sure he probably is. But to brazenly say "soo while I have not a single shred of evidence to support what I am about to say, I am going to just go out there and say it - Bartolo Colon is going to use PED's again - because he is a narcissistic megalomaniac who only cares about his performance and believes that he can outsmart the system so much so that he is willing to risk the 20 million dollar contact he signed, any possible legal ramifications, and his reputation." does nothing to add to the discussion on this thread and just reeks of a personal bias against the player. Look, this is a baseball forum. We all expect and tolerate a certain level of baseless speculation. But this is the type of speculation that is toxic and unnecessary.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 9, 2013 21:55:46 GMT -5
Well the upcoming draft is really deep and if they draft well then maybe...... Oh yeah .... whoops.
At least they will be good enough to maybe win the wild card, if their pitching does not kill them.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 9, 2013 0:06:59 GMT -5
Lets just point out a few facts: 1) Shin Soo Choo is an excellent baseball player who is coming off a fantastic season where he put up an FWAR of 5.2. 2) However, he has only produced more than 5 WAR once and that was in 2010. In between those years he posted 3.7 WAR over 240 games in 2011 & 2012. 3) His defense is now below average, even in right field. 4) Steamer projects him to post 3.2 WAR in 2014, while Oliver predicts 4.8. Lets split the difference and say that he is projected to be a 4 win player in 2014. 5) The Sox currently have 4 outfielders. The two who are slotted to play left field next season posted WRC+ last season of 129 and 109 respectively, are suitable platoon mates, and are paid very little. They are however poor defenders. 7) Most insiders are expecting Shoo to sign a seven year deal for upwards to 140 million dollars- that means he would be under contract through the age of 39.
Are really telling me, that the best option is to sign Choo for maybe one or two more "prime" seasons, and then continue to pay him through his decline all the way to the point where he likely will be completely useless, while we have a cheap in house option that will replicate at least 70% of his production?
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 8, 2013 23:12:21 GMT -5
As a fan of Spain, I would like to point out just how stupid these groups are. La Furia pretty comfortably won their qualifying group (the simple fact that the previous cup winner needs to qualify is a separate BS matter) and yet we get stuck with possibly the worst draw possible, while France who finished 5 points behind us in qualifying get a rather easy group that if they win get to play the second place nation from Group F (The best of the rest in that group is Nigeria?).
Meanwhile, Spain get stuck playing in a group that features Holland and the very dangerous Chile. Obviously, you all know about Holland (Really a rematch of the 2010 final is our fricking first match)but it is Chile that really scare me. They have a wonderful attacking side that scored the second most goals in the CONENMBOL qualifiers, they are used to the heat (more on that latter), and they should have a really good showing of support. I really believe that one of Spain and or Holland will not make it to the round of 16.
Further, Spain got picked in the lot that plays their games in the tropical north of the country. It is going to be humid and hot, conditions that played against us mightily in the CONFED Cup semi-final in Forteleza. I really do not think it was merely a coincidence that when Brasil kicked our culos that we looked like a team made up of geriatric retired players.
Finally, with the draw as it is, Spain will be under immense pressure to win the group. Second place gets to play Brazil in the round of 16. So yeah, this draw is complete and utter bull-shit. I was under no assumptions that Spain was going to do the impossible, but the deck is significantly stacked against them.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 7, 2013 12:43:10 GMT -5
I am huge fan of Kuroda, but the guy will be 39 years old on opening day and he just signed a 1 year 16 million dollar contract to stay with New York. Even if we pretend that he was actively listening to offers from teams other than the Yankees or those either in Japan or the West Coast, Boston would have at minimum have had to offer him a 2 year deal worth 25-30 million to entice him. Are you really arguing that the Red Sox should have signed Kuroda to that deal for his age 39 and 40 seasons, and give up a draft pick in order to upgrade from Peavey whose is projected by Streamer to have a 3.74 FIP and by Oliver to have a 3.93 FIP next season. By the way Kuroda's projections are 3.37 and 3.94.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 7, 2013 12:26:20 GMT -5
As good a place as any to make this observation ... You can project pretty far into the future at five of the nine positions: SS: Bogaerts C: Swihart or Vazquez 2B: Pedroia CF: Bradley 3B: Cecchini The other four positions are far less obvious. This is the freaking defensive spectrum. We're looking golden at this end, and then you've got RF: Ages 33 and 34; no top prospect anywhere in sight LF: Ages 31 through 34, no top prospect in sight 1B: Ages 32 and 33, no top prospect in sight DH: Age 38; possible alternative ages 28-30; no top prospect in sight The team has pursued a philosophy of drafting guys at the other end of the spectum, because they can always move this way. Is it biting them in the ass? If you look at everyone under 30 in the organization and go down as far as SP's top 30: 2 SS 5 C 3 2B (plus Pedey) 2 CF 4 3B 1 RF 1 LF 0 1B 1 DH Even if you move Almanzar from 3B to 1B, this is incredibly imbalanced. This is silly. How many teams in baseball have quality prospects or players under the age of 26 at every position? How many quality first base prospects are there in all of baseball? Are you telling me that guys like Betts and Cecchini are so offensively limited that not one of them could project to stick at any three of those positions (I'm not counting DH) based on their solid offensive tools and above average defense? What about the young guys who though are under 20 have plus power tools and look like prototypical first base types: Longhi and Denney. Or how about Margot and Rafael Devers, two guys who are raw and far far away but who profile as above average offensive players.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 5, 2013 1:45:59 GMT -5
Does anyone have a semi-accurate estimate to where the Yankees' current payroll stands. From piecing together the guaranteed contacts from Cot's and Baseball Refernece's estimations of Arbitration awards, I have them pegged somewhere around 166 Million dollars. That figure does include A-Rod's 25 million, so based from my math (which I expect to be incorrect) they have anywhere from 23 million to 48 million dollars to remain under the cap (Dependent on the entire A-Rod parody). Regardless, they still could still be real players in either the Tanaka market.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 3, 2013 14:03:10 GMT -5
I guess we are all wishing that we gave Salty that QO. Just for kicks here are the streamer projections for AJP, Salty, and Hanigan. AJ P: .265 BA .302 OBP .411 SLG .713 OPS .310 wOBA 88 WRC+ 2.1 WAR *Really rosy defensive projection. (447 PA) Salty: .230 BA .301 OBP .412 SLG .715 OPS .312 wOBA 96 WRC+ 2.9 WAR (599 PA) Hanigan: .250 BA .340 OBP .341 SLG .681 OPS .300 wOBA 86 WRC+ 2.2 WAR (380 PA)
Yes AJ has a significant advantage over Hanigan in the power department, but Hanigan's vastly superior on base skills actually makes him almost as valuable at the plate as AJ. That is before you consider defense, where there is no competition and Hanigan is miles better than either AJ or Salty.
And great, it looks like the Rays just picked him up. So this entire catcher saga has been a pretty ugly mess. 1) We undervalued the catching market initially and did not offer a QO to Salty and forefitted a pick.. 2) The best catcher available is now a Yankee. 3) We are stuck with a guy who is the very definition of minimally acceptable, who also happens to be a high risk candidate for injury or decline. 4) The best undervalue catcher in the market is headed to Tampa, who I am sure traded no one of consequence.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 3, 2013 0:44:54 GMT -5
So it appears that the NY Mets have non-tendered Jordany Valdespin. He did post a dreadful 60 WRC+ this past season in a small sample of only 144 plate appearances, but he will be only 26 this upcoming season and has success as recently as last 2012 (95 WRC+ in over 200 MLB PA's and a 107 mark in 160 PA's in AAA). He has not played much short since entering the bigs, but did log as many as 146 games at short plus a further 243 at second. Could he possibly be an adequate option as our backup middle infielder? His defensive stats in the bigs are such small samples (NY played him mostly in the outfield and second) that they are almost meaningless.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 17, 2013 16:39:02 GMT -5
Yeah Texas does not make a whole ton of sense as a potential landing place for Ells. They have a cheap incumbent who easily profiles as a league average hitter and plus defender and plus base runner signed for two more years. Granted he is a disaster against lefties (52 WRC+ in 150 PA's) but that is hardly a reason to invest so much into a replacement when the team could use more help at first base, catcher, DH, or rightfield.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 17, 2013 2:00:59 GMT -5
Yeah. Howard is on that list of 1b with contracts you couldn't give away. Himself, Pujols, Fielder, probably Tex also and maybe even Votto. Probably the only one that wasn't stinky when given out was the AGone one. Not that I would necessarily be comfortable in committing 10 years and 225 million to the guy, but Joey Votto should not be on that list. He is signed until he is 40 and he will obviously see a severe decline in performance over that stretch, but the man is a 6 win player just on the basis of his bat. To be "worth" his contract he has to be worth 45 Wins in today's dollars. If you regress based on a normal ageing curve he will provide about 32 Wins over the next 6-7 years. The seasons that follow will most likely be ugly, but after adjusting for the rate of inflation in baseball contracts, they could break even. Of course a contact like that has a shit-ton of risk; rapid decline, injury, etc and I totally understand not being a fan of it.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 16, 2013 12:31:54 GMT -5
A quick question in regards to your above theory ,coming from someone who likes Hannigan as a secondary option. I know that the overwhelming evidence is that the notion of lineup "protection" is a myth. If has been stated by so many reputable saber based outlets so often that I will not even bother to cite it. I know that you have read that information probably much more thoroughly than I have. So my question is this: do any of the multiple studies on lineup protection find sufficient enough data to support your claim in this one particular instance (High BB% guys struggling ahead of the pitcher?). Because though it seems intuitive enough, the entire protection belief in of itself makes intuitive sense as well yet is hardly provable.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 15, 2013 13:52:13 GMT -5
Totheights,
First: You have been presented with a ton of data and information that suggests that Salty is an above average offensive catcher. To respond by simply saying well I disagree with that data and to not offer any reason greatly undermines any possible point you may have. (Not that I think that you really have one)
Second: Mauer, Molina, and Montero all signed contract extensions before reaching free-agency. You simply can not compare what they are paid to what Salty will get paid in FA. Robinson Cano is not much more valuable than Pedey, but he will get paid a whole lot more.
Third: On the open market teams spend more or less 5.5-6.5 million dollars per win. Paying a player 30 million over three years means that you are paying them to produce 5 -6 WAR over three seasons. That is not elite, hell that is not even first division starter money. Salty at 3/30 is a good deal. And I would be very very comfortable with that outcome.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 12, 2013 0:28:20 GMT -5
My personal offseason plan: (Mods please feel free to delete/move/or burn) 1) The D-backs are loaded with near-ready MLB starting pitching 2) The 33-year old Hanigan hit .198 last year 3) 13 million a year to a platoon player? 4) Why trade a .300 hitter and a guy with 30 HR power, who ARE IN the major leagues, for two A-ball starters who aren't in the Royals top-15 prospects? 5) Did we learn anything from the mistake with Dice-k? plus, we are already loaded with experienced and young pitching. . 1) The Diamonbacks fancy themselves as contenders in the NL West. This past season they gave significant time to two guys who posted negative WAR (Ian Kennedy -1.5 and Brandon McCarthy -.02) and also had Randal Delgado (.1 WAR) and Trevor Cahill (.7WAR). Next season they will be entering the season with a rotation of Miley, Corbin, McCarthy, Cahill, and Delgado. Yes, they have Archie Bradley who will start the season in AAA who could be ready by mid-season to help and Tyler Skaggs who should be ready in the Spring to supplant Delgado/McCarthy, but Peavey is a superior pitcher than 3 of the five guys they have penciled in. Maybe they would not have any strong interest in Peavey, but lets not pretend that he is not an upgrade to McCarthy/Cahill/Delgado. (I just compared McCarthy's FWAR to the BWAR that I used, and it may be possible that the number I cited above is too harsh on him. Fangraphs had him pegged at 1.9 WAR last season with a league average FIP. Still Peavy has superior K and walk rates in the AL to McCarthy so I still stick to my over arching premise - also just to note that both he and McCarthy will be FA's after 2014, so Arizona will not be facing a possible logjam in the rotation in the event of the trade that I proposed as Archie Bradley is barley 21 and Skaggs is 22.) 2) Steamer Projects Hanigan to post .250/.340/.341 slash for next season. That is not great, but a decent defensive catcher who can get base at a .340 clip is valuable. I'll also not that my main goal here is to not spend big and risk losing big on a older FA catcher like McCaan and possibly Ruiz (there may be more of a market for him than we all assume) while also leaving a clear path for either Swihart or Vazquez to develop and become our future catcher. 3) This is 2013, adjust your expectations as to what 13 million on the FA market can buy you. It is not even that Granderson needs a platoon partner (career 86 WRC+ vs lhp is not pretty, but is far from crippling) it is just that to maximize his value you would want him to face mainly righties. 4) Uhm yeah, I am pretty sure Selman and Adam are top 15 prospects in the Royals system... Though I will concede that I was likely under-valuing Nava. However, who cares if WMB can theoretically hit 30 home runs in a full seasons worth of plate appearances. He may as well also strike out almost 200 times and get on base at a sub-Trumbo level. To label him a 30 HR guy and leave it at that is more than a tad disingenuous. 5) Did we not learn anything from Yu Darvish? I mean that is just a silly statement to make. Tanaka is not Dice K (nor is he Darvish for that matter) please try to evaluate players based on there talents and skills, not their place of birth. 5-B) You do realize that pitching prospects fail more times than not? I am super excited about Owens, Barnes, Ranaudo, Webster. But the reality is that we will be lucky if 2 of them become number 3 starters. Anything more than that and we would have hit a jackpot. Also, my plan would allow them opportunities to start in the near future as Buch will likely miss time, its possible we let Lester walk, and if they really push our hand either lackey or Doubie could be traded as well. Why would you want to limit the number of assets that the team controls?
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 11, 2013 1:05:30 GMT -5
I get where you are coming from but I'd argue that the Marlins would likely not want both Barnes and Ranaudo and that WMB would be redundant if we packaged Cecchini as neither guy has the offensive profile for first and their outfield seems set. Maybe they would bite at a package centered on WMB (I may be focusing too much on what he does poorly rather than what he does well), Swihart, Barnes, and Betts. But I think that may be a stretch. Honestly, what their system is missing are impact guys in the infield and left handed pitching. There is no way we get around that. And while Doubie certainly has value, he too will soon be arb eligible and I doubt that Loria wants more than one guy who already has 2 years of service of time.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 10, 2013 23:11:17 GMT -5
Yeah I have to say that I agree with Guidas. I doubt that the Rays FO would turn down what they think is the best offer even if it happens to come from a division rival, as they simply can not afford that luxury. Their situation dictates that they must continually acquire or develop premium young cost-controlled talent that they can either keep around for a few years and trade for the next gen, or extend to a club friendly deal. If Price is to enter the market and the only teams ponying up bids are the Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, and Rangers then it will come down to the team that has most talent that they are willing to give.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 10, 2013 23:00:52 GMT -5
Sorry, I Mike Trout was just getting ready to jump in bed with Megan Fox and saw this.....(Odds are about the same) Trying to bring a realistic scenario into this discussion Mike could do a whole lot better. Also though it is far from a perfect tool, and something that I suspect exists mostly for entertainment purposes. Fangraphs Dollars of value "metric" shows that Trout alone provided more value (52.1 million) than the cost of his and both of Pujos' and Hamilton's contracts combined (48.6 million AAV). To put it this way: paying 50 million dollars for 14 WAR is actually not a bad deal. It just so happens that in this case 11 of Wins are coming from one guy making the league min, while the other 3 Wins are coming from the guys making 10/240 and 5/123.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 10, 2013 22:48:34 GMT -5
If we are really going to have a serious discussion about getting Stanton, we must look at the Marlins system and consider what they need.
OF: Jackie Bradley is a very good prospect, but with the Marlins already having Yellich, Ozuna, and Marisnick in the high minors almost ready to contribute, they likely would not be content with JBJ being one of the integral pieces coming back.
Starting Pitching: Obviously every team could use more arms in the system, as the attrition rates for top pitching prospects can be even more cruel than those of position prospects. However with that said the Marlins have Fernadez (bona-fide stud), Jacob Turner (maybe he will someday be good), Nathan Eovaldi (3.59 FIP as 23 yr old) , and Henderson Alvarez (3.13 FIP as 23 yr old) in the majors. Then in the minors they have Andrew Heaney (3.41 FIP as a 22 yr old in AA), Justin Nicolino (3.03 FIP as a 22 yr old in A+), and Jose Urena (3.17 FIP as a 21 year old in A+). I have to admit that I do not know much about any of these guys outside of their stat lines (all of their k rates are underwhelming though) but it is likely that the Marlins would not really want a pitching heavy package, especially all righties.
Honestly I think they would want at the minimum of Cecchini, Swihart, Owens and Webster. Sure they may also ask for some lower level lottery ticket guys as well, but I think those four would need to be involved to get them to table.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 9, 2013 2:44:16 GMT -5
I know that this is more of "In my fantasy world the Sox would do this..." type of thread, but some of these proposals are just epically bad. Mike Stanton will not be traded for Doubront (mid rotation guy) Webster (very likely will never have the command to be anything special), Betts (still a rather unknown quantity), and spare change. The Marlins still have him for dirt cheap for 2 more seasons and he is only 23 years old. Think about that for a moment. Ike Davis has had a very bumpy and disappointing three seasons. He will likely never become a first division starter. But Chris Hernandez is a guy who if all things break right may become Chris Breslow. The Marlins do not need any more help in the outfield. They would have zero interest in Nava. Plus Yelich is one of the best outfield prospects in baseball, and if the Marlins value anything, it is young cost controlled players- so yeah not going to happen. Jhonny Peralta - First Basemen? ![???](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/huh.png) Really. Yes he posted an impressive WRC+ of 123 in 2013 and a 122 WRC+ in 2012. But for his career that number is 102. Do you think at 34 that he is going to continue to perform better than he has for his entire career?
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