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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 8, 2013 14:34:57 GMT -5
Yeah I am an idiot - sorry.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 8, 2013 14:15:24 GMT -5
My personal offseason plan: (Mods please feel free to delete/move/or burn) -Let Napoli and Drew walk with no real attempt to do otherwise. -Offer Ellsbury a 5 year / 110 million contract. Which he will probably refuse. At that point you let him sign his 7 year deal elsewhere. -Non-tender Bailey -Trade Jake Peavey (16.5 million) and Bryce Brentz ? to the Arizona Diamonbacks for Martin Prado (10 million). The DBacks have very little starting pitching, but a very solid second basemen in Hill and a better version of WMB in AAA (less pop more OBP) who is ready for the majors. Prado may not be necessary. We would need to sweeten the pot, I am just not quite sure with what. - Trade the Reds for Ryan Hannigan (Should come cheap) or sign Carlos Ruiz for 2/16. -Sign Curtis Granderson to play Left Field and platoon him with Jonny Gomes. 3/39 + loss of pick. -Dump Dempster for salary relief - let say we eat 4.4 million (savings - 9 million). -Trade Daniel Nava and Will Middlebrooks to the Kansas City Royals for Sam Selman and Jason Adam. -Post for and Sign Masahiro Tanaka (Post fee of 55 Million plus 6 year 90 million dollar contract) - Make RDLR a reliever and sign one of Balfour, Mujica, Valverde, Dotel, et all who ever is cheap.
We would lose our first round pick, but gain the three from Drew, Ells, Napoli. While only adding 13.5 million in payroll (not including the relievers- to me that is secondary). And our 2014 Sox would look like this: Shane Victorino - RF Dustin Pedroia - 2B Matin Prado - 3B David Ortiz - DH Curtis Granderson - LF Xander - SS Mike Carp - 1B Jackie Bradley - CF Ryan Hannigan - Cather
1) Lester 2) Bucholz 3) Tanaka 4) Lackey 5) Doubrount (Webster and Ranaudo as depth)
Koji Taz Mujica? Workman Morales Britton Miller
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 5, 2013 16:46:52 GMT -5
What would be everyone's thoughts on a Granderson/Gomes platoon in Left while going cheap at first with Nava/Carp? It may not be better than resigning Napoli, but I am terrified that he may just fall off a cliff.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 4, 2013 1:40:43 GMT -5
Corey Hart would be an obvious candidate if Napoli walks. I don't see why they'd enter a season with Carp/Nava/Hassan/Gomes for 1B & LF with all that payroll flexibility. Hart could replace most of Napoli's production and it would be a short term low risk deal. quote]. I was thinking this same thing until I decided to take a peak at Hart's defensive stats at first base. He has only one season worth of data (which is small sample, but all we got) and UZR had him as a minus 11 runs. Maybe there is some sample size noise to that number, but with him missing a full season and entering his age 32 season, I am rather skeptical of his ability to not be a liability in the field. He, like Beltran may now be best suited as a DH. Which of course we do not need. Of course Napoli's sky-high k rate and heavily inflated BABIP could be more of a problem than a guy who gives back half of his value with poor defense.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 3, 2013 12:51:45 GMT -5
Probably because am bigger at picking out big flaws in a players game JMEI and some of the advanced metrics just don't allow that. Massive amount of K's, advanced metrics don't allow that, which don't put balls into play and take into account the chance of fielders possibly booting balls, advancing runners etc.. Truly spoken by someone who has no idea what they are talking about. Statistics have their limitations in baseball analysis (especially in regards to milb) however sabemetrics quite clearly allow us to have a better understanding of player's worth and production. Do some people over-rely on them? Sure, Manny Machado +30 defense at third is probably a mirage (defensive stats need a large sample to normalize), are relievers sometimes over penalized for pitching too few innings possibly? - possibly, are league average starters rewarded too much for staying healthy? - maybe. Should you ever evaluate minor league players on stats more heavily than scouting profile/projection/age scale? - Hell no. But your position stated above is simply ridiculous. Salty is by every conceivable measure an above average hitter for his position. Maybe your eyes just have not seen enough John Buck? Because not every team has a Yadier Molina.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 1, 2013 13:47:32 GMT -5
It's now official.. Oakland has declined their 8m option on Suzuki. He underperformed for both Washington and oakland last year, but his glove is better than Salty's and imagine his RHbat would return at a place like fenway. Another viable option and platoon partner with Ross, both righties regardless. Catcher platoons do not work. Especially when one of your guys is a 37 year old with a history of concussions. Starting pitchers typically like to consistently work with the same guy throughout the season. Yes, most are not like Tim Wakefield who needed his own caddie flown in from San Diego, but the comfort of you starter is worth much more than the offensive upgrade you get batting Suzuki vs. Righties and Ross vs. Lefties.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 1, 2013 13:36:46 GMT -5
You all realize that it is very possible that the reason why the Red Sox may not be offering Salty the QO is because they are attempting to just re-sign him during the quite period for a 2 or 3 year deal at a lower AAV? What I can tell you, is that we are not just holding the door open for Salty as he leaves so that we can massively overpay a guy like McCann with a ton of questions or only to go dumpster diving.
Over the past three years Salty has averaged about 3 WAR/150. Obviously this last year and his elevated BABIP unfairly inflate that total, so lets say he that he has been really a 2.5 WAR player. He is 28 years old and entering his prime, he has some defensive deficits, but knows our staff well and is not a liability behind the dish. We have no other ready internal options, with our two best options at least 2 years away from being able to start. Ross is fantastic but can only play on a limited basis, so attempting to find a platoon guy for him would be pointless - not to mention I'd rather pick my catchers based on my pitchers comfort level and their health rather than anything else.
Simply put Salty is by and far our best and most practical option. The FO will be trying to re-sign him.
*Also you know how I know that Lavrnway is not a catcher. Not only do the Red Sox brass not believe in his ability to stick there, neither does any team in baseball. Lavarnway is the type of guy who on day one could probably post a WRC+ between 100 and 110. If any FO saw him as a catcher, they would have made offers for his services that exceed how much the Red Sox value him. It is pretty simple.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 30, 2013 23:45:55 GMT -5
In April, I was mocked for saying that I thought that the 2013 Sox were an 87 win team, whom with luck could squeak into the playoffs via the wild card. I am happy to say that I was very very wrong.
Thanks to every member of the 2013 Red Sox, who made baseball fun again. It had been awhile.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 11, 2013 15:29:27 GMT -5
Has Jon Heyman written any pieces about Abreu? Is Abreu a Boras Client? (These are rhetorical)
The reason why Heyman is criticized so much is because there are not too many writers who debase themselves like he does. It is also important to note that he and Buster Olney are reporters; not columnists or analysts. So all that he does is offer news w/o any particular insight or opinion. I know that it was a throw away comment, but it was utterly baseless.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 11, 2013 14:51:08 GMT -5
If anything, these leaked scouting reports are more likely exaggerated positively by Abreu's agents to generate hype. How so? The "leaked scouting reports" that we have seen have typically have came from writers for large national outlets (ESPN, BA, BP) who have been in the industry for years and have over time developed contacts with sources throughout the league. I don't see a columnist like that with any sort of credibility would just be lapping up propaganda from the guys agent and then report it as substantial unbiased information.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 8, 2013 14:36:48 GMT -5
[/quote]The Cuban thing is the only reason that the Marlins are regularly attached to defectors. But it's never actually been a reality and one thinks that it's a way to generate cheap press when the local papers run a story about the team being interested in the latest Cuban sensation... [/quote]
Yeah, with the exception of Cespedes, the Marlins have never really pursued any of the big name Cuban IFA over the past ten years. And even the Cubans and Cuban Americans that they have drafted have almost all been relatively easy signs. If it costs significant investment money, Loria will pass. The only reason why they even selected Fernandez at 13 was because he was kid who had a great combination of talent, youth, and a lack of any serious college commitment.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 24, 2013 17:31:25 GMT -5
The Marlins want young guys who can play now, which is why I think Hazelbaker or Brentz would need to be included. You do realize that Fernandez is younger than both of those guys. He has only burned just one season of club control, and just had possibly the second best age 20/21 seasons of any pitcher in modern baseball. There is practically no other pitcher in baseball who is more valuable and not making a kings ransom (with the exception of Matt Harvey who is hurt and 3 years older). Hell, he probably would make Stephen Strasburg cheap to acquire in comparison. I'm not trying to be rude, but there is absolutely no conceivable way for the Red Sox to get Miami to trade him.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 18, 2013 23:40:41 GMT -5
This entire Abreu saga has reinforced every negative perception I have of mainstream baseball outlets. Slightly more than a month ago people used Davenport translations* to make ridiculous comps to guys like Miguel Cabrera and Manny Ramirez. Then three weeks ago Jerry Crasnick cites some un-named talent evaluator who said that the scouting community was not sold on his hit tool and bat speed (never mind the fact that at the time he had no formal showcases and scouts had not even yet actually seen him) and therefore he is now somewhere between Dayan Viciedo and Kendrys Morales?
Is he a bad body first basemen? Yes. Does that put significant pressure on his bat? Of Course. Do we have nearly enough information to make a reasonable guess as to how good his bat actually is? No, not even close.
Lets give this a few weeks people. And can we stop making comps based on race and ethnicity while we are at it. - To get things started I'll say that Mike Trout reminds me a lot of a young pre-roid Barry Bonds.
*I like Davenport Translations they are fun and can help give some insight to a players potential based on their age and level of completion. I would never advocate using them as way to project future performance in the show.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 18, 2013 11:34:55 GMT -5
I wonder if some players will consider taking a little less than the QO in exchange for the team agreeing not to make the QO after the following season. I know they do this in football. . The new CBA does not allow players and teams to add such language to contracts, though it was an allowed practice in the old system. There could be some unwritten "gentleman's" agreement between parties, but I am of the belief that such agreements are bullshit fantasies of sports fans and writers.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 16, 2013 20:41:43 GMT -5
Salty has been very valuable this season, and I really do hope that we retain him going forward. Which is why I hope we extend him a QO, as it will effectively kill his chances at receiving a multi-year deal. Catchers simply do not receive the contacts that other position players because a) they typically play only about 120 games a season and b) their workload carries a lot of inherent risk. The following (imperfect) list was taken from Cot's: (FWAR season before contract extension/free agency) The highest-paid catchers, by average annual value: 1. Joe Mauer, $23,000,000 (2011-18)(5.3) 2. Buster Posey, $18,555,555 (2013-21)(7.7) 3. Yadier Molina, $15,000,000 (2013-17) (6.2) 4. Jorge Posada, $13,100,000 (2008-11)(5.7) . . . Mike Napoli, $13,000,000 (2013-15)Voided (2.1) 7. Miguel Montero, $12,000,000 (2013-17) (4.6) 8. Jason Varitek, $10,000,000 (2005-08) (4.1) . . . Russell Martin, $8,500,000 (2013-14)(2.0) 15. Kenji Johjima, $8,000,000 (2009-11) . . . A.J. Pierzynski, $7,500,000 (2013)(3.3) 19. Ramon Hernandez, $6,875,000 (2006-09)(2.4) 20. A.J. Pierzynski, $6,250,000 (2009-10)(1.) 21. John Buck, $6,000,000 (2011-13)(2.7) 24. Benji Molina, $5,333,333 (2007-09)(1.0) 25. Chris Iannetta, $5,183,333 (2013-15)(1.2) 27. Chris Snyder, $4,750,000 (2009-11)(2.0) 28. Brian McCann, $4,666,667 (2007-12) Most of the names listed are of guy who were more valuable at the time their contract was offered, and none of them cost their signing team draft compensation. I would guess that Salty's value is somewhere between Martin and Montero before this past season, which would mean that on the open market he would get somewhere in the vicinity of 3/30. However, that is without draft compensation. It is hard to see a team paying more than 2/25 and giving up a pick. (This list is imperfect for obvious reasons (some of these deals were renegotiated contracts that bought out club controlled seasons, etc..etc.) but I think it does a solid job illustrating how catchers are not likely recipients of expensive multi-year contacts. )edit:I decided to take out all contracts prior to 2005 (A year i picked arbitrarily/ I graduated High School in)
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Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 16, 2013 12:41:15 GMT -5
Salty is a 100 wRC+ player with limited defensive skills. That is pretty good for a catcher - I wrote this elsewhere, but basically it is at most a touch better than Russell Martin prior to 2013. Without a QO, Martin signed for 2/17. I suspect that Salty would be 3/27ish, maybe 4/36 ish without a QO. With a QO, I don't think he'll be able to sign a long term deal with the Sox or anyone else. I suspect he accepts the QO, which is a pretty fine outcome for the Sox. This, he would likely sign for a year more at a slightly higher AAV than Martin, but no team is going to sacrifice a first round pick to sign him. My bet is that he signs a two year deal with Sox for an AAV slightly less than the QO (Lets say 2/24). That would be perfect for us as it would allow either Vazquez (who still does need more time in AAA) or Swihart (at least 2 years away) to develop.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 8, 2013 18:19:19 GMT -5
Anyone here having different thoughts regarding Ellsbury after his 3rd "freak" accident? Some really talented players are just plagued that way. Look no further than Grady Sizemore, Drew (JD) though Sizemore is still suffering from lower extremity issues. The guy (Ells) is brittle. 3 major injuries within 3 seasons. Am having a really hard time seeing the more conservative Sox FO going over 4Y now. Just too brittle and Ellsbury has earned that title. I am a pretty big proponent of the idea that staying healthy is a skill set, and that players who miss time because of nagging injuries and muscle problems may just not have the ability to stay fit the whole 162 (Lord knows I could not). However, in the case of Ellsburry we have a guy who suffered from three pretty examples of impact related injuries (collision w/ Beltre, having a second basemen fall on his wrist, and to foul a ball off his foot). There is no predictive value in any of those incidents and to suggest that the Sox should or should not offer him a long term deal on that basis is silly. I'll also not that I am firmly in the let Ellsburry walk and get 7/130+ from someone else.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 3, 2013 0:10:59 GMT -5
A few quick thoughts: First and foremost prospect evaluation is never simple and nothing is ever absolute. This holds true when we discuss the importance of milb stats, age advancement, ceiling's, etc. etc. This entire debate whether the Sox's good fortune in developing players is superior scouting or luck falls into this category. The Red Sox are a well run organization, one that is reputedly ran better than most. However luck certainly plays a part in that yeah Xander may have had some neat tools as a 16 year old in Aruba, but there is no fracking way anyone anywhere would have said yeah that kid will be the second best prospect in baseball four years from now. Conversely teams get unlucky and scout and draft players aggressively who fail because of injuries or illness (eg Westmorland or possibly Dylan Bundy)
Second: most of the guys who we are discussing (in regards to the actual topic of the thread) will be resigned well before next November. Making plans on who "might" be available over a year from now is almost always a fools errand.
Thirdly: Really Eric, Clay Buccholz is an ace because of the fact he posted a 5.6 BWAR (3.5FWAR) in 2010? Ervin Santana posted a 5.0 BWAR (6.0) FWAR in 2008 and John Burkett posted a 4.8 BWAR 5.2 (FWAR) in 2001. Yearly performance fluctuations of that sort are not entirely rare (uncommon yes).
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Post by sdiaz1 on Aug 28, 2013 18:35:12 GMT -5
I think Bradley hasn't made a strong case to be a starting OF for the Sox next year. I hope the Sox re-sign Ellsbury. I have seen this said several times and I have to wonder what exactly are people hoping to see? As a 23 year old in AAA Bradley has posted a .276/.376/.478 triple slash with an excellent walk rate, a decent k rate, plus plus defense in center field, and above average speed.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Aug 27, 2013 0:39:19 GMT -5
Though the power(.529 SLG and .280 ISO- likely a mirage) and the walk rate (11%) are very very encouraging, we need to remember that this is a guy who as an appropriately aged player repeating a league is striking out over 28% of the time. We need to temper expectations. He is certainly a prospect worth watching, but he profiles more like a poor man's Mark Bellhorn than a legitimate first division starter at this point in time.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Aug 22, 2013 18:00:51 GMT -5
Not to needlessly pile on what has been mentioned before (payroll flexibility this year allowing us to get Peavey and Uerhra, flexibility going forward, Crawford and Gonzalez in decline, Dempster being slightly better and much cheaper than Beckett, a new and improved clubhouse culture, etc etc)but it is also pretty cool that we were able to sign Stephen Drew to a cushion contract and will most likely get a supplemental round pick in a strong draft as a result. If the trade was not made, our lack of cap space would have made that signing impossible.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Aug 14, 2013 12:14:31 GMT -5
Jacoby Ellsbury is the second best available free agent next winter. He will not be signed to 5 years 75 million. After doing a quick skim on Cotts, next years class is pretty much like this: Rabinson Cano (By and Far the Best) Ellsbury and Choo (Who will both get paid) McCann, Garza & Abreu? Beltran, Napoli, Morse, Morales, Hart Salty, Granderson, Drew, Ervin Santana, Michael Young, Nate McClouth
I think you let both Ells and Drew walk, and redirect the money saved to first base, catcher, and left field. Obviously it is hard to know which teams at this point will offer QO's to their players though I have to imagine that McCann and Garza are almost locks. Maybe the best bet is to resign Salty (though I would love McCann) and sign two of Abreu, Beltran, Hart, and Mclouth?
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Post by sdiaz1 on Aug 13, 2013 17:01:46 GMT -5
Well, my understanding is that the Cuban League is roughly equivalent to AA. So in AA, you could expect to face some guys with crud stuff, but you will also face guys with great fastballs and secondary pitches. Unlike AA, he will also have faced guys who are established and are no longer in need of seasoning. I am not a big fan of trying to find an equivalent minor league level for the Cuban league. Yes there are a lot of players in Cuba that would max out in the high minors, but there are also a ton of players that would not even sniff A ball while there a few that could be star level guys on the biggest stage. There is just too much variation to throw out - its equivalent to AA or high A (which I hear more often).
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Post by sdiaz1 on Aug 13, 2013 15:53:24 GMT -5
This 90 MPH fastball thing is getting over played here. The Cuban League has an insane variety of quality, from rather established guys who if in the MLB would be solid to above average players (Cespedes, Puig, Martin, Chapman) to super talented kids who would be top prospects in the states (Soler, Jose Fernandez, Iglesias, Grandal) guys who are or depth (JCL, Leslie Anderson, Urrutia, Viciedo, Maya) all the way to guys who may or may not have been even drafted out of college. Does Abreu likely feast on some shitty pitchers? Absolutely. Does the average pitcher in the Cuban league have fringe stuff? Yes no doubt. Does no one on the island have MLB quality fastballs? I think we have seen enough Cuban pitchers to know that is not the case. Also we have seen the guy on the international stage against some good, bad, and plain ugly opposition.
The guy is not going to be the best hitter in baseball. But he is not going to come stateside and see a 93 MPH fastball on the inner third and be all "Ay dios mio".
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Post by sdiaz1 on Aug 13, 2013 12:29:58 GMT -5
To answer the question posed up thread as to why so many people are down on Marrero; I'd say that it is quite simple as fans (even savvy ones) often fail to look over offensive short comings of prospects, even if they provide excess value defensively or on the base paths. We saw this ad-nauseum with Iglesias. Though I should point out that Igelesias is all of six months older than Marrero - I don't like beating a dead horse, and I am very happy with the Peavey trade, but I do think a lot of sox fans in six years will be saying man we used to have that guy. mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2013_08_12_detmlb_chamlb_1&mode=video&content_id=29653669&tcid=vpp_copy_29653669
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