SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Recent Posts
|
Post by sdiaz1 on Aug 11, 2013 23:29:05 GMT -5
Obviously when discussing Cuban ball players, how they scout weighs much more heavily than their stats. And all of the big ticket offensive Cuban IFAs of last years class are all incredibly physically impressive, while Abreu does not have athleticism that they (Cespedes, Puig, Soler) have. However with that said, you don't slug .938 in any league just by taking advantage of hanging curves. Anyone who signs him should temper expectations, he might just* be a good offensive first basemen. I really really hope we get him.
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on Jul 3, 2013 19:03:22 GMT -5
Jose Iglesias is at 148 PAs as of today. Will Middlebrooks thought his first 148 Red Sox PAs: .319/.358/.558 Yeah, still not sold. Seeing as that is your position, this article about sample size and how long it takes for peripheral stats to normalize should be of interest to you. It shows that all of the things that occured last year to make WMB successful ie:elevated SLG, ISO, and HR/FB rates, take 500, 550 and 300 PA's to normalize. Conversely Iglesias has been primarily successful because he has been drawing walks at a health clip and has limited the number of times that he strikes out. Stats that normalize after 200 and 150 PA's. If he really is a guy who walks 6% of the time and only strikes out 13% (which there is no reason to not believe) then he will be more than adequate offensively as a shortstop. www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10231&position=3B/SS
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on Jun 25, 2013 12:46:27 GMT -5
I am curious to see how much it will take to sign Gonzalez. I tend to completely ignore anything mentioned in a Yahoo article but I do think the bidding may get out of hand, with the eventual signing team have to put down in excess of 25 million. I am really intrigued, but that is a lot of money for a guy who is already 26 and not only has to adjust to a new culture and the modern professional game but who also has barely pitched these past two seasons for being flagged as a possibly defector.
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on Jun 22, 2013 21:49:17 GMT -5
Speaking of Cubans, and I realize it likely doesn't mean much, but I found it of at least mild interest; 27 year old outfielder Alfredo Despaigne, former home run champion of the Cuban league and arguably the top player in the nation, is currently playing in Mexico. Please tell me there is something that can be done to bring this man across the border asap Sadly he is being leased out by the Cuban Governmnet in a "cultural exchange" with Mexico. It is kind of like how Cuba sends boatloads of doctors to Venezuela in return for oil subsidies. So while he may be more able to defect, if the government decided to do this it would indicate that he is a pretty firm member of the party/ likes his family a lot. I would love to see him and Abreu actually play against legit competition.
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on Jun 19, 2013 12:07:19 GMT -5
Using Fangraphs, I selected 2013+2012 (to create a sample size), of shortstops with 500 PA. 13 SS came up. Sorted by their fielding rating, the three SS in the middle of that pack, are Escobar (8.0), Aviles (5.0), and Aybar (-.5). With this method I am assuming these players are average defensive SS's. Iglesias blows these guys out of the water defensively. I think Iglesias could cover more ground at SS than 2 Aybars. What I am getting at is if Iglesias could hit around league average for a SS, he would be one of the better ones in the league. His value would also be less tied to hot/cold streaks. No I don't think he is an allstar, an MVP, but I do think he can by these standards be a top 5-10 SS. He is also young and cheap, which I think is understated. SS really is a defense first position. I just do see the problem with having Iglesias at short long term, and using your resources to fill other holes. This, a thousand times this. The entire Iglesias debate here and elsewhere has gotten so silly in that people are now distorting the bars of offensive competence for shortstop. Stephen Drew and his .300 bop and .370 slg has the 12th highest WRC for MLB shortstops. All that Iglesias has to do to be an above average MLB shortstop is to have an OBP of .300.
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on Jun 18, 2013 13:46:16 GMT -5
Jim Callis ?@jimcallisba #RedSox sign 12th-rder Jake Drehoff for $175k. Southern Mississippi LHP works w/87-91 mph fastball & slider. #mlbdraft Didn't expect him to get overslot. Is anybody else mildly annoyed with the overslot spending on the post 10 round flotsam and jetsam? Yeah its only 75k here but that adds up and could be thrown at a better player. Um, so far the only two guys to receive over slot bonuses post round ten are this guy and Speier. I will admit that I do not know a single thing about Mr. Drehoff (and that it does seem odd that he given so much when he was unbanked by PG) but Speier is absolutely the type of guy that any franchise would want to add. BA ranked him 265, and is about as good of prospect that you can hope to sign for a reasonable overslot deal.
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on Jun 15, 2013 22:04:35 GMT -5
I hope everyone knows that Social Security taxes are paid only on the first $113,700 of income. Yup. But that's not the point. The point was more that life changing money can have different definitions to different people. I did not know that we drafted Scrooge McDuck.
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on Jun 7, 2013 15:51:04 GMT -5
He has LOOGY written all over him. The Sox have a history of drafting soft throwing pitchers, how many have panned out? The question is why? What do they say the definition of insanity is? Well, I am pretty confident that this guy is going to sign for way way below slot. So if we are able to sign Denney, Adams will have already been useful.
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on Jun 5, 2013 21:27:50 GMT -5
I think he has enough to hit .230/.330/.400 if he gets to play a full season of MLB ball - full season being 500 plate appearance or more in a single season. I absolutely believe he can slash and bunt his way to .250. Toughest get in there would be the .330 given his career walk rate, so it might be closer to .250/.290/.400 but yeah, he'd be in the ballpark with WAR when you add in the plus D at SS. So sure, I'd wage twenty whole dollars donated to Sox Prospects on that if he ever got the 500 PAs in a season on Jose Iglesias producing .230/.330/.400 line. And I'd up the ante by starting every response to one of your posts with "fenwaythehardway is always right..." for a year if I lost. I am as big of a Iglesias booster as there is, but your projection for his OBP and SLG seem really really optimistic. And there is no way that he ever posts an OBP 100 points better than his AVG. I could see him maybe having a season where his OBP is north of .320 and his AVG is more like .280. I see his average season being something along the lines of a .265/.305/.375 (.680) which would be good for a WRC+ around 80. By the way that still is a very valuable player, the WAR calculator that JMEI linked says that line with plus plus defense and plus base running would be worth 3.6 WAR. The guy you described is almost worth 5 wines.
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on Jun 3, 2013 23:33:37 GMT -5
I have seem a lot of stupid things done with parents naming thier children, but the whoever named the Basabe twins tops them all.
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on Jun 2, 2013 11:50:50 GMT -5
I think I'm going to have to pump the brakes a little bit here. Iglesias has hit really well, but there's no chance in hell he sustains anywhere close to his current .524 BABIP. Remember, he's had only 55 PAs in the major leagues, and in a sample that small, his BABIP and BA (which are driving his current triple-slash of .431/.455/.529 )have almost zero predictive value. It may be instructive to compare the peripherals of Iglesias, Ciriaco, and Drew so far in 2013: Name | PAs | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | Jose Iglesias | 55 | 1.8% | 18.2% | .098 | .524 | Pedro Ciriaco | 53 | 11.3% | 18.9% | .152 | .278 | Stephen Drew | 171 | 13.5% | 25.1% | .163 | .277 |
Note that Iglesias is worse than Ciriaco in pretty much every offensive peripheral aside from an insignificantly better strikeout rate. And while Iglesias strikes out less than Drew, Drew's far superior plate discipline and power is more than enough to bridge the gap and make him the better offensive player. Granted, Iglesias' defense is obviously magical, but we shouldn't assume that Iglesias' offensive has suddenly improved enough to even sniff Drew's offensive production. I think Iglesias' career marks to date (.256/.309/.336, .320 BABIP) represent an optimistic projection for him going forward. I'm fairly happy to have him replace Ciriaco as the utility infielder if Iglesias can sustain that triple-slash, but that's not good enough for me to confidently trade away Drew, especially considering Iglesias' injury history. Sure, Ben should take any inquiring calls and if someone wants to overpay for Drew, I would consider it, but I certainly wouldn't go out and shop what is, by a fair margin, the best SS on the roster just because he's a FA at year's end. While I do agree with your general premise (that 55 plate appearance have no predictive value and that if you took away .200 points from his BABIP we would still expect some regression) I would like to point out that in his 130 PA's in AAA (still a small sample but much better than 55) he had shown very good discipline 6.8% BB and 13.5 K% and a respectable ISO of .118. His slash line however was pretty awful, but unlike his miracle BABIP so far in the Majors, his AAA BABIP was barley .200. I will admit, that I do not know how long it takes for ISO to mormalize and that his .118 mark may have been sample size noise, but his K and BB rates follow a trend that he started last season in 370 PA where he posted a 6.8 BB % and a 11.5 K%. Additionaly I would note that a +10-15 run short stop with .256/.309/.336 slash line is a 2-2.5 Win player (aka Brendan Ryan).
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on May 31, 2013 0:11:29 GMT -5
Re: a guy like Manaea falling, he's not going to get picked in the second round if he falls. With the current slot structure, it doesn't make sense to take a signability guy until rounds 3 or 4 so that you don't lose all of that slot money if you fail to sign the guy. That's why a guy like Buttrey lasted until the 4th last year. Yes, the pick isn't protected, but you're not screwed if you lose the slot bonus money by failing to sign the guy. This is why I think Manaea will almost certainly not sign. Teams aren't going to take him early enough, and Boras is going to put him on the phone with Appel to find out what can happen if you come back for your senior year. I mentioned the idea yesterday as a pipe dream scenario, but since then, I have been thinking more on it and could see it actaully happening (just not with the sox). If the Astros really do take Moran 1-1 (or heck they could do any one of Byrant/Stewart/Fraizer) there would be no way that they pay them the full amount alloted to the slot. So if they were to take Moran or Bryant 1-1 and offer them 5.7 million they would have saved over 2.5 million to add to the 1.4 million dollars alloted to their second pick and they could theoretically go ahead and pick Manea. In this scenario, I see it highly improbable that either Moran/ Bryant turn down almost six million dollars, and just as unlikely for Manea to turn down almost 4 million. That would be one hell of a coup for them and really jump start their farm system.
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on May 29, 2013 0:41:47 GMT -5
Is it of of the realm of possibility that the Sox would select Manea with the 45 pick? I see little downside from the Sox perspective in that the pick is protected and if we fail to sign him, we will recieve a simmilar pick 2014 and it is not like there are that many high caliber prospects projected to last into the second round.
And from Manea's point of view, though it will certainly be a dissapointment only to recieve a one million dollar pay day as oppossed to what he could have gotten if he did not get injured, it would be a huge gamble to leave that money on the table only to return as a senior for next years draft and risk either further injury or poor perfomance.
I posted this in amfox's Mock Draft thread, only to then realize that this would be a more appropiate place to post the thought.
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on May 29, 2013 0:39:00 GMT -5
Is it of of the realm of possibility that the Sox would select Manea with the 45 pick? I see little downside from the Sox perspective in that the pick is protected and if we fail to sign him, we will recieve a simmilar pick 2014 and it is not like there are that many high caliber prospects projected to last into the second round.
And from Manea's point of view, though it will certainly be a dissapointment only to recieve a one million dollar pay day as oppossed to what he could have gotten if he did not get injured, it would be a huge gamble to leave that money on the table only to return as a senior for next years draft and risk either further injury or poor perfomance.
Right after posting this, I realized that the discussion thread was a more appropiate place to post this. Please feel free to delete - Sorry.
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on May 28, 2013 17:22:00 GMT -5
Michael Yaz at #251. We drafted him once before. I know it puts a lot of pressure on him but I hope they draft him again. Around 8th round or so. You never know. It might be just what he needs. Yaz was a real hard worker. It would certainly be cool to follow Yaz's grandson on a daily basis, and also along the same lines; does anyone know where MAN RAM JR is expected to be drafted? I was suprissed not to see him in the top 500 and would simmilarily be excited to follow his MILB career.
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on May 27, 2013 21:11:09 GMT -5
I am still hopeful we could take Cliff Lee's contract at the deadline. If the Phillies are sucking they may want to rebuild for the future. The Red Sox are the only team who could take every dollar of the contract, which might save us on the prospects we would have to give up, unless Phillies would choose to eat his salary and look for a big haul back. The rumors as of now are the Phillies do not want to move Lee, I am just hopeful of a playoff rotation of Buch, Lee, and Lester. While Lee would certainly make our team much better this year, I am not terribly sure that I would want to add a 34 year old pitcher with declining K rates (under 7/9 for the first time since 2007) for what would be a 3 year 78 million dollar deal for his age 35-37 seasons. Lee does still have the incredible control and command that made him awesome (1.6 BB/ 9 ) but he does carry a lot of risk. I guess it may come down to which prospects they would want in return, If the deal could be something like Brentz & Britton + some low level live arm then sure, but anything more would likely be too much*. *Assuming that we take on the majority of the remaining contract.
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on May 26, 2013 22:39:30 GMT -5
Sorry to hear about Queens Park (well not like I just found out, they have had one foot in League One since prarctically Easter) but I was hoping that they would do well, especially after they added one of my favorite canteros in la pirata.
Anyhow, the last week of in La Liga is shaping up to be a fascinating one. Only a mere two points seperate Mallorca at 20 and Super Depor at 17. And each team; Mallorca, last year's second half miracle team Real Zarragoza, and the Gallego rivals all play at home. I have been rooting for Depor to survive, primarily because Juan Carlos Valeron was a part of the great generation of Spanish midfielder of the early 2000's that actually attacked with the ball unlike more current iterations, and I would hate to see him finish of a truly tragic and beautiful career going down to La Liga Adelante on the final match day of the season.
Sadly, they are the only team of the bunch playing against competition that has any realy motivation of showing up and playing. As they face a la Real squad (Sociedad) that has had a wonderful season that could finish with them earning a spot into the UCL if they win next Sunday and if Valencia loses. Hopefully Valeron can roll back the years against the players of Sociedad, some of whom are young enough to be his children, and ride out in glory (kind of).
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on May 26, 2013 12:59:53 GMT -5
Come on Fenway, it is silly to rightfully bring up the fact he has a .556 BABIP in his 24 PA MLB line and then just dismisively state that he has not hit at all in AAA while not mentioning anything about his .211 BABIP, .120 ISO or solid K and BB rates in a much larger sample in Pawtucket.
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on May 26, 2013 0:32:00 GMT -5
If we look pass his surface stats this season in AAA we see that Iglesias’ has made gradual improvement in regards to his walk and k rates (following a trend started last season – granted his k rate is slightly higher this season). Additionaly this season he was sporting a respectable .120 ISO. The odd thing is that despite showing improved patience and power with above average speed he only had a minuscule BABIP of .210. I know that without accurate batted ball data that it is hard to speculate why his BABIP was so low, but I honestly see that with any regression he should see at least a .020 to .040 spike in batting average that would push his OBP over that magical .300 mark, which would make him a good everday shortstop (based of course primarily on his glove)
Though it is funny that the opposite is the case with his MLB line (SSS of course). His current MLB BAPIP is .556 with a .087 ISO and no walks, but again in 24 plate appearances funny things happen.
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on May 24, 2013 16:22:04 GMT -5
I don't agree. But arguing with Temple and his supporters who think that Mark Appel isn't a top 100 draft prospect is like arguing with a dinning room table. I have no interest. I remember earlier in this thread around March (well before Appel dominated this college season), arguing against Temple's suggestion that he would be upset if the Sox took Appel at 7. But I am pretty sure that though his opinion on him was laughably misguided, your assertion above is a gross mischaracterization of Temple's pre-collegiate season views.
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on May 24, 2013 16:13:17 GMT -5
I don't believe that Iglesias playing at third is anything other than the Sox coaching staff truly thinking that his skills defensively at short should translate better at third than Drew's. For instance they may view Iglesias as having the better arm and quicker reflexes of the two, which will make up for any unfamiliarty with the position.
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on May 24, 2013 0:58:27 GMT -5
How do we know that they sit at round table? I mean maybe Ben Cherington is more of a rectangle kind of guy? Also why again are we comparing a guy who was signed to a 2 year 26 million dollar deal to a guy who was signed to a 6 year 80 million dollar deal?
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on May 18, 2013 14:44:08 GMT -5
Mookie is certainly an interesting prospect, who If I remember was viewed as someone in the top 150-200 in last years draft, and has shown an excellent approach that has led to him putting up an insane walk rate (21&%) and a very low k rate (10%). Additionally, it appears that luck has been against him so far as his BABIP of .252 is very low.
However with that said, I am not going to hop on his bandwagon until someone, somehere can give a satisfactorily explained reason why his ISO is five times higher than it was over 300 plate appearance last season. His whole stat line while fun to look at and intiguing, simply reeks of SSS.
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on May 16, 2013 12:11:29 GMT -5
I am going to once again plug Mark Anderson's site Baseball Prospect Nation. Over the past week he has begun posting reports on many of the prospects projected to go early in the first round.
Here are some quotes of what he had to say about Fraizer: "Exceptional power prospect. Absolutely elite bat speed and top-of-the-scale raw power. Hit tool has to develop.... Potential average hit that should allow 80 raw to play in games. .270-.280 hitter with 40+ home runs at peak. Athletic enough and runs well enough for CF assignment but instincts are not there ....may fit better in RF where plus speed will play just as well. Ultra-aggressive player with high energy and good makeup. Potential star-level player with power as the standout tool.
And Arguably the top player available in the draft. Easily the top position player for me. Excellent talent that is too much to pass up in the top two or three picks."
I still won't quite pitch my tent with Frazier, I would still be happy with Shippley, but I think that despite his possibly pitfalls, he is the guy I like the most.
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on May 16, 2013 11:58:55 GMT -5
Any reason why we are calling Henry Ownes "Hank"? I have seen it a few times and assume that it not an accident.
|
|
|