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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 27, 2012 11:50:57 GMT -5
First: He is talking about Justin Upton, you know the guy who just turned 25 and the season before was a 6.5 win player.
Second : Though I think Bowden says some really dumb things, That is not in any way or shape a bad deal. Hell, the D-Backs may want even more than that. I am not advocating that we make that kind of deal, or even that I would personally like it (like many people here, I have never been more excited about a prospect than Xander) but aquiring a 25 year old quasi-superstar for a top 15 prospect, a top 50ish prospect, and a guy who is like a top 150 prospect in MLB is actually a underpay.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 23, 2012 21:02:21 GMT -5
And as it turned out giving Victorino $39 million compared to the $25 million for Ross hardly seems like a bargain either. Maybe Shane Victorino is a much more valubale player than Cody Ross? And the difference in guaranteed money between the two is "only" 13 million over 3 years. Cody Ross had his second best season last year and was worth 2.4 FWAR. Shane Victorino was a bum and put up 3.3 FWAR. They are also the same age. If you don't like WAR and stats that try to quantify defense we can also just look at their offensive outputs; Ross: .324 OBP .338 WOBA 106 WRC+ 30 SB Victorino: .341 OPB .338 WOBA 105 WRC+ 200 SB So they are more or less the same hitter, but Victorino is a good centerfielder who is very valuable on the bases while Ross is a pretty good corner outfielder who brings no additional value on the bases.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 22, 2012 12:49:18 GMT -5
I get that people really want to see a LHH of the bench, but how is a first basemen with a carreer WRC+ 112 and negative defense all that much better than either Jerry Sands or Mauro Gomez? Is a season worth of a pinch hitter worth trading away 6 years of a guy with an 80 glove? We should be able to find guys simmilar to Jones. He is a completely fungible asset.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 19, 2012 13:43:30 GMT -5
..but the Myers trade (understanding that KC might have preferred Shields, so we would have had to throw some more into the deal) or even a lesser prospect more equal to JBJ/Barnes would be a better long-term fit. This can not be stressed enough. James Shields was simply a much more attractive option to KC than Jon Lester. Lester is under contract for only one season more at 11.5 million and his 13 million 2014 club option is voided in case of a trade. Shields is under contract for both 13 & 14 for 9 and 12 million each. And much more imporatnatly Shields is comming off two seasons where he has posted XFIPs of 3.25 while having his surface ERA more of less align with his peripherals. Lester has meanwhile seen his surface stats go to hell, though his XFIP has been remained under 4 and his FIP is only slightly above. So yeah, to assume that Boston could have gotten Myers for Lester straight may not be entirely accurate.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 18, 2012 17:16:58 GMT -5
The Mets got John Buck too, not great, but decent enough to keep the spot warm for d'Arnaud Ahh, I forgot that Buck was part of that deal. Then I guess we need need to find a different suitor for Salty.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 18, 2012 13:01:38 GMT -5
Just spitballing; but how about Salty and Aceves to the pitching heavy Mets for Michael Fulmer and Jeurys Familia. Obviously they just landed D'Arnaud but maybe having Salty for one year would still be intersting as it would allow them to start D'Arnaud in AAA and also ensure that he is not overworked in is first taste of MLB.
Of course that is a luxury and maybe the Mets would rather not part with legitimate prospects for a non-vital commodity.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 15, 2012 12:46:35 GMT -5
Wow, really. Did you not even read past the first sentence?
How many players in the first 3 rounds in last years draft got deals signifigantly lower than their slot? How did the Red Sox draft show that strategy?
To repeat, we would lose the second round pick and maybe $200,000 that could be spread around. That is not a sufficient reason to not sign a guy.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 15, 2012 12:39:45 GMT -5
So far this ofseason the Red Sox have added six guys who who over the past three years have averaged for 14.6 WAR combined. They have done this with out signing anyone for more than 3 years, giving over 13 million to any single player per year, approaching anywhere near the luxury cap, or trading any important minor league pieces.
I can see how some can be mildly dissapointed, I can understand how many people don't see us in the playoffs in the fall, but I can not for the life of me understand how anyone can say that this team has failed to improve signifigantly or how this team has bankrupted the future to be mediocore in 2013.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 15, 2012 12:19:53 GMT -5
I don't see why people are are getting soo hung up on the possibility of losing a draft pick if we sign Swisher. A fiftieth overall pick is valuable, and so is the 1 million dollors of slot resources, but if we look at how the Sox drafted last year and how the league in general did as well we see that very few players recieved offers substantially lower than their slot.
All that is to say that if we sign Swisher we are at worst losing a second round pick and maybe $200,000. We are not losing both the pick and a whole million more to sign other draftees.
And lastly, if we sign Swisher, Damon is likely out of here. After seeing the prospects traded for Choo and Span as well as the contracts given to Upton, Victorino, and Bourne I think it is safe to say that he nets us a return worth much more than the fiftieth overall pick in a weak draft year.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 14, 2012 13:42:47 GMT -5
Honestly just based on the little inormation that I could find, which was little more than what was already posted, I would say that Diaz is likely the better of the two. Having exposure to internatinal competition at the National Team Level means that he has had some exposure to more advanced pitching as well is an obvious indicator as to how his talent is viewed in Cuba. Also his being two years younger is a huge deal as it will allow him more time to adjust to "American" baseball. The Cuban league is notorious for having large strike-zones which leads to over-agressive approaches at the plate as hitters try to attack the pitcher rather than the other way around. For instance, if you think back to Jose Contreras, he had a huge beautiful curve. However, after a few months here, the league realized that it was a ball almost 50% of the time. They then stopped swinging and he became much less effective, but in Cuba that pitch is often times a strike. Here are a few videos that a re not a lot of help; Diaz Homerun: Diaz not so impressive range to the left: A more imprssive play: Hitting a double of a ball at his eyes:
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 13, 2012 14:45:28 GMT -5
For the price the Angels have paid to secure 5 years of Jash Hamilton, Ben Cheington has bassically acquired; 3 years of Mike Napoli, 3 years of Shane Victorino, 2 years of Johny Gomes, 2 years of David Ross, and 1 year of Koji Uehra.
I think he is doing all right.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 13, 2012 14:05:49 GMT -5
Let me get this right, you think that Ryan Dempster is destined to be an abject failure in large part to his stuff. Meanwhile you think that Brandon MacCarthy would be a slam dunk success in the fens. Yet both pitchers sit at 90 MPH.
How about you look things up before you post.
2012 Pitch types: Brandon McCarthy: Fastball (cutter) 90MPH Sinker: 90.3 Curveball: 79.4 Ryan Dempster: Fastball (four Seamer) 89.6 MPH Slider: 85 Fatball (2 Seamer): 89.5 and Dempster actually has a fourth pitch unlike McCarthy Splitfinger: 81.5
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 13, 2012 13:14:57 GMT -5
I have to say that I am in two camps about how well I expect Dempster to do in the AL East.
At first glance,my gut tells me that guys with his profile rarley fair well with the NL to AL transition. However as Dave Cameron points out on fangraphs that is not always the case, and it is also possible that the AL East is no longer as dominant offensively as it once was and that rest of the league has caught up.
Meanwhile after looking at his stats for a second time, I have to say that I am getting more comfortable with idea. For the past five seasons he has averaged a little less than 200 innings, maintained FIPs and XFIPS under 4 for each season and has been a consistent 3 win pitcher.
At only two years at < 30 million, this looks like a really solid move.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 12, 2012 12:38:58 GMT -5
Sox could of swung a Ells for Bauer trade im sure. They could of played the role of the Indians. Bauer would of gave us the ready ML player Cher wants an a potentiel ace. Dont no why he didnt get in on that. We could of then signed Hamilton. It is impossible to play this game of counterfactuals. We do not know if Cincinatti preferred Ellsburry to Choo, that Dayton Moore was willing to offer a package Myers, Ordiorizzi, and Montgomery to Boston for Lester and Morales and so forth. Lets try to judge the Red Sox by what they actually do, not based on trades that we have very little knowledge about how they came about. And though I can't know for sure as I have no experience in a MLB front office, I doubt teams working on trades openly broadcast to the rest of the league in hopes that they recieve a better offer. If they did, I imagine that they would be viewed unfavorably in the league and that they would never get anything done.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 12, 2012 12:06:42 GMT -5
"I think it's worth noting that Choo was not traded for Bauer as Arizona did not end up with him. It seems the real question should be could the Sox have moved Iglesias in a package for him?"
There were several moving parts to this deal, and I must admit that I do not know much about Gregorious. However from Cleavland's perspective they dealt Choo, the remains of Lars Anderson, and utility infielder for Bauer and a decent very toolsy but flawed outfielder.
A Package starting with Iglesias would not have been enough (and I am rather bullish on Iglesias)
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 12, 2012 1:01:57 GMT -5
As someone who really wanted to see the Sox make a serious push to aquiring Choo, I have to say that at that price, I am very happy that we did not. Alarming walk rates and possible bad attitude be damned, Bauer is an excellent get by the Indians.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 11, 2012 12:39:51 GMT -5
Salty straight up for a 38 year old Dickey doesn't do it for me either. I'd rather roll the dice with Salty one more year. Jarrod Saltalamacchia 2008-2012 WAR: 2.5 RA Dickey 2012 WAR: 5.6
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 10, 2012 0:24:39 GMT -5
"Now market aside, do you really think these are great signings - I mean is Upton a good deal for Atlanta? Do you think Victorino is a good deal for the Sox? "
How can you possibly answer wheter or not the price for any commodity is a good value without considering the market from which the commodity exists?
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 10, 2012 0:05:59 GMT -5
Im confused is Ben Cherrington the GM of the Royals now? If so, I understand why everyone is so angry at him....
But come on this board used to be one of, if not the most interesting and informative prospect boards out there. However lateley it has become a festering cesspool of bullshit.
I have nothing but respect and appreciation for Contributors, Mods, and staff of this site as well as several other posters here, but lately it seems that for every single informative and intellegent post there are ten posts about how dumb BC is, that LL is ruining the Sox, that we will never ever be able to compete ever again, that all of our prospects will reach thier cielings, that RBI's are a useful stat, and so forth.
I hate saying this because SoxProspects is the first site I visit for new about \all things Red Sox, the write ups and reports from the staff here are simply the best and most detailed of any website (including pay for content sites) and those writers are even passionate enought to be active particapants on the forms. But lately reading the forums here feel like reading the comments section below an article on ESPN.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 20, 2012 13:50:53 GMT -5
I am an avid reader of fangraphs, and I am fan of their prospect team of Hulet, Cistulli, and Newman. I felt like Newman did a good job in his evaluation about Cecchinni and why prospect watchers of the Red Sox should keep their expectations in check when it comes to Garin. However I would agree that he waded unnecessarily into murky territory when he tried to expand his call for pessimism throughout the system.
First, in the real world of creating and running organizations, having three or four guys with huge ceilings is nice but not necessarily better than having 6 guys with good ceilings and lowers floors. On average a typical good ceiling - low floor prospect (Jackie Bradley) will produce much much more value over their career than a super talented-toolsy prospect in the low minors (Jorge Soler). Yes if all things fall right the Red Sox only get an occasional all-Star in center, while the Cubs may have the next Vladimir Guerrerro, but the odds are much higher in the Sox's favor.
Boston has a ton of guys who without too much luck, projection or development should be starting players in the MLB.
Second, I would argue that Boston does in fact have some really high upside guys who can truly be impact players (Read 5 or more WAR types). Xander, Barnes, De La Rosa (Newman agrees, but mentions that he is no longer a prosepect - which is technically true), Webster ( I disagree with Newman's fears here), Lin, Swihart, Owens, Callahan)
Third, he repeatedly used the 2006 crop as his benchmark. I did not follow the system too much back then, but I seem to remember that we offered both Lester and Papelbon for Reed Johnson (who yes, was a highly rated post prospect) and that no one really expected Pedoria to ever be much more than David Eckstein 2.0.
With all that said, he is an awesome writer, I typically agree with his evaluations (I think he is spot on with Cecchinni) and to question his validity is a ridiculous overstatement and reeks of homerism.
Edited: To make it clear that I felt like his pessimism on Cecchinni is valid, while his overall impression on the organization is inaccurate.
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Salty
Nov 11, 2012 16:21:59 GMT -5
Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 11, 2012 16:21:59 GMT -5
If most scouts and industry sources believed that Lavarnway is likely to become a .380 OBP hitter with 25-30 home runs a season, then it would not matter if he was bad bodied DH, he would be one of the most coveted and talked about prospects in baseball.
I like Lavarnway's bat a lot, but I would be thrilled if he ever becomes a .340 OBP hitter with 15-20 home run power. Lets keep our expectations somewhat tied to reality.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 30, 2012 16:45:26 GMT -5
1) What do you do to shore up the rotation? Who would you go after, how much would you offer, etc.? Would you try to go after someone in a trade? Does the club need an ace? A #3? Just help on the back end?
Sign Jake Peavey for 2 years @ 13 million AAV with third year club option and a 4 million dollar buyout
2) What do you do at first base? Go with an internal option? FA? Trade? Trade: Jarrod Saltalamachia, Alfredo Aceves & Bryce Brentz To the Mets for Ike Davis
3) What do you do at shortstop? Do you stick with Iglesias? Do you make him compete with Ciriaco and De Jesus? Trade for someone? Stick with Iglesias
4) What do you do in the outfield? Do you re-sign Cody Ross? What do you do with Ellsbury? Who's in left? Resign Cody Ross for 2 years @ 8 million AAV w/ third year club option and 2 million buyout Keep Ellsburry and let him walk at the end of the season Trade: Ryan Kalis &, Garin Cecchinni To the Indians for Shin Soo Choo (Sign to a limited extension)
5) After all that, give us your ideal 25-man entering the year (you can copy and paste the following to make sure you get everyone):
C – Ryan Lavarnway 1B – Ike Davis 2B – Dustin Pedroia 3B – Will Middlebrooks SS - Jose Iglesias LF – Cody Ross CF - Jacoby Ellsbury RF – Shin Soo Choo DH – David Ortiz
B – Ivan De Jesus B – Juan Carlos Linares B – Dan Buttler B – Jerry Sands
SP – Jake Peavey SP – Jon Lester SP – Clay Bucholz SP – Felix Doubront SP – John Lackey (Start both Franklin Morales and Rubby in AAA and stretch them out. I believe Morales could be a useful ¾ Starter and should be given a shot to do so before returning to the pen.)
RP - Andrew Bailey RP – Mark Melancon RP – Andrew Miller RP – Junichi Tazawa RP- Daniel Bard (Cross Fingers) RP – Rich Hill RP – Scott
6) Oh, and while you're at it, who would you protect from the Rule 5 Draft? Christian Vazquez, Allen Webster, Alex Wilson, and Josh Fields
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Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 28, 2012 13:41:53 GMT -5
The Indians are coming of a 68 win season (their pythag was 64 wins and was their fourth consecutive losing season) their rotation is a disaster, and they do not have a third basemen, first basemen, or left fielder. They will not be trading an above average player who is cost controlled for 5 seasons and one of the top prospects in baseball for a guy who will be a FA well before they are ever competitive again.
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Brentz
Oct 21, 2012 1:19:20 GMT -5
Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 21, 2012 1:19:20 GMT -5
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Brentz
Oct 18, 2012 17:41:50 GMT -5
Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 18, 2012 17:41:50 GMT -5
Is it me our has the general quality of posts made have gotten much worse since the 2011 collapse.
I see people using RBI's as a significant player evaluating tool, others simply taking taking the position that being pessimistic is equal to being realistic, arguing that Delmon Young is an above player, arguing that Bryce Brentz is somehow a blue-chip prospect, that Ellsburry could net us Andrus straight up, ans so forth.
It all makes me miss the days when the most irrational posts had to do with arguing intangible characteristics of Ryan Lavarnway.
And to casually compare Brentz to Jensen.. WTF. Over his carreer Jensen walked at a higher clip than he he struck out. I can not think of a worse comp.
Edited: I posted this quickly and sloppily at work
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