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Post by sdiaz1 on May 16, 2013 11:52:01 GMT -5
exactly...... what I said still stands Except for the fact that you said that for Dodger's to trade Puig, that they would want Xander+++++. That was what I believe Beasley was describing as silly. The Dogers could be convinced to move Puig, but they would want either am established, legitimately good starting pitcher, or someone they view as a major upgrade up up this middle (2B, SS, CF). They are not going to trade Puig for prospects, and I'd really like everyone to try to think of the last time two organizations made a prospect swap. There are reasons why those trades, even in the instances when they make sense (Taveras for Profar), rarely ever happen. Of course talk about how WMB or Stephen Drew, or a package of Salem players could entice LA is even more ridiculous.
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Post by sdiaz1 on May 14, 2013 23:20:12 GMT -5
It is worth noting that not every year is like 2011. Drafting a college pitcher with a ceiling of a legitimate number 2 at pick 7 is good value in most years. This is not necessarily an endorsement for Shipley, but if we do take him, I certainly will not be all that upset.
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Post by sdiaz1 on May 14, 2013 15:45:36 GMT -5
Yeah I love Xander and he may end up being better than Machado, but there is no way that I think any sane person would rather have Xander than Machado to build around. They have too similiar of cielings offensively and defensively for anyone to ignore that while at practically the same age Machado is doing what Xander is doing in AA (which is very impressive in it own right) in the Bigs. And either one of them over Harper/Trout - yeah that is just bananas. I don't care where Harper plays defensively he is a week younger than Xander and is posting a fricking 176 WRC+ with an entirely neutral BABIP. While Mike Trout has been worth slightly less than 12 WAR over his last 162 games.
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Post by sdiaz1 on May 13, 2013 23:21:40 GMT -5
[/quote]I just think its more likely they trade Eitier and eat his salary to get some talent back. [/quote]
This. Andre Ethier is a valuable player who happens to be signed for three years longer than he should. He has averaged about 3 WAR per season and is being paid around 16 million per season, which is slightly more than what a 30 year old three win player should be getting paid for a long term contract, so it is not like that he is some sort of unmovable albatross. If we really wanted to get Puig, we could offer the Dodgers Ellsburry and also eat the entirety of Ethier's contract, but I do not really see that being quite enough, the Dodgers have the finacial resources to work a deal where they A) keep their best prospect and B) possibly get a prospect or two back with some value.
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Post by sdiaz1 on May 11, 2013 0:08:53 GMT -5
Unless said player was previously available in a prior draft, what the Sox FO has done in the past is relatively unimportant. If the the scouting department is convinced that Stewart is on the same level as Gray and Appel, they will gladly pick him at 7 if they are confident that he will sign for around slot (another factor to consider ecspecially with HS kids in previous years). Sometimes we take for granted that every draft is different and often times teams asess these guys in very different ways. If they feel that Stewart is better than Shipley, and they both will sign for slot, then their age/ level won't matter.
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Post by sdiaz1 on May 5, 2013 1:58:17 GMT -5
Can someone please explain why the Dodgers included Webster in the Punto trade? This seems like it should be a different thread altogether. But to sum it up: The Dodgers made the Punto trade because it was a smart move which improved their team. The only reason why members of this forum may believe differently is because: a. We are Red Sox fans b. This is a prospect forum and we often overvalue prospects c. We have place the Red Sox (and most MLB teams) valuation of salary on this trade when the Dodger value of performance per dollar is significantly different d. The short term (as well as social) gain for the Dodgers was significant . I am not disagreeing with the thought that the trade improved the Dodgers, but at the end of the day they took on over 250 million dollars in contractual obligations for three guys who will likely not be worth 70% of the money owed to them. And to top it off they gave up a guy who looks like (and at the time looked like) a mid rotation starter plus Rubby De La Rosa, who though has a huge range of possible outcomes is more than an intriguing arm. I understand why they gave up some value in return, but this trade can not look like anything else than a gross over-valuation of the players they recieved. I want to sate plainly that I think both Crawford and Gonzalez are excellent players, but they are being paid at FA market value, and both are the wrong side of thirty. Both are under contract through their age 36 seasons and both will be paid handsomely for their declines.
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Post by sdiaz1 on May 4, 2013 1:03:35 GMT -5
Can someone please explain why the Dodgers included Webster in the Punto trade?
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Post by sdiaz1 on May 2, 2013 14:24:19 GMT -5
I don't think it's crazy to suggest that there's a systemic problem with the Mariners in their acquiring of other teams' prospects over the last few years. An even bigger problem is what they've done with their own prospects. They had a potential outfield that included Shin-Soo Choo, Adam Jones, and Ichiro. They traded the first two away and Ichiro finally decided he'd had enough. They even sent Chris Tillman with Jones to Baltimore, and they threw in George Sherrill and two other prospects for good measure, all for Eric Bedard! With some trades, you might not know what you've really got since players do blossom later (think Bautista here). But there were few who doubted that Adam Jones would be a very good player, maybe even a great one. It should be noted that Eric Bedard was a 28 year old pitcher who that season k'ed over 10/9 allowed less than three walks per 9 and had a cool XFIP of 2.90. All this following two other very solid years where he had averaged a 8 per nine K Rate and a 3 per nine BB rate during his 26 and 27 aged seasons. He had question marks ecpecially in regards to his durability, but he was a damn good pitcher entering his prime. You pay a premium for that type of player, and sadly for the Mariners that trade went about as badly as could have.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Apr 30, 2013 15:11:17 GMT -5
Not that it really matters all that much because we a talking about a 14 inning sample size, but his FIP is only 3.20. Bad results happen when you have a .551 BABIP against and a paltry 57.4 LOB%. It is certainly possible that he is allowing the hard contact especially with runners on that would lead to an inflated BABIP and low LOB %, but as far as the stats are concerned he has pitched pretty well. (Again I will note the Silly Seriously Small Sample Size of 14 innings that we are trying to evaluate)
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Post by sdiaz1 on Apr 30, 2013 15:01:58 GMT -5
Ugh, one report had Julio's wrist swelling after it was hit. Guess we need to wait for more, but any hit and then swelling to the wrist just isn't cool. Man that sucks for Julio, but has anyone heard anything regarding Jose Iglesias and his wrist?
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Post by sdiaz1 on Apr 28, 2013 1:19:26 GMT -5
Call me crazy, but I feel like that if everything goes right, Coyle could become a second basemen in the mold of Danny Espinosa. I hate direct comps, but I feel that from an offensive standpoint this one may fit, and though that is a valuable commodity to have, it is not someone to get overly excited about until it looks like that cieling is attainable.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Apr 22, 2013 23:33:30 GMT -5
Also, Almanzar has been playing mostly 3B this year, soooooooooooooo... yeah. (10 starts at 3B, 3 each at 1B and DH) I have been wondering about this, as it seems like a reversal of what we saw last season. Has he been playing predominately third base because a more established prospect (Shaw) is at first, are does it seem like the organization is serious about him developing as a third basemen? If it is the latter or there any early reports as to how he has looked? -Baegra, I'm sorry again if I contributed to you feeling jumped on, I read too much into your second post. I get a little defensive of my binkies.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Apr 22, 2013 18:51:34 GMT -5
My bad, I mistook the tone of your second post.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Apr 22, 2013 18:32:23 GMT -5
And ten strikeouts. And a .111 ISOp. Xander has been underwhelming thus far, I don't think I'm being a pessimist by saying that. Yeah but freaking out about a sample size of 70 plate appearances, especially the first 70 plate appearances of the season is silly. Then add into the fact that the kid is only 20 and should be expected to struggle in AA, then it is a rather pointless observation.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Apr 19, 2013 1:12:06 GMT -5
One thing he can do well is drawing walks. 4 BB a day. Oh shit, maybe we should skip pass Berkman and just throw out a Barry Bonds comp.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Apr 18, 2013 15:16:23 GMT -5
Berkman was .286 with avg of 15-20 Hr's per Milb season. I said Berkman "type hitter", which is a good hitter with some power. I think you should take a second look at Berkman's milb stats 1998 (22 yrs AA/AAA): 590 PA 30 HR 38 2B .422 OBP .566 SLG 1999 (23 yrs AAA): 267 PA 8 HR 20 2B .419 OBP .518 SLG 2000 (24 yrs AAA): 112 PA 6 HR 4 2B 2 3B .479 OBP .563 SLG How Travis Shaw's performance in the minors can be seriously compared to that is a legitimate question. -I will also note that I like Travis Shaw - but we should as a community should lay off from these types of comps. And JMEI beats me to it.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Apr 15, 2013 20:52:01 GMT -5
Almanzar goes yard (3rd of year). 5-2 Portland. How crazy is it to think that Almanzar may play himself into serious contention for a 40-Man slot? I know that it is really early and a rather small sample, but between the strides he made last year and what he is doing right now as a 22 year old in AA, he may be a guy to watch.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Apr 14, 2013 22:02:23 GMT -5
Fangraphs is a wondeful site for many reasons, and to add to the great work they do Dave Cameron posted an article today about Quentin's tendencey to get hit by pitches. Pretty much it states that of the 95 times that he has been plunked 30 of those pitches have been in a zone that only hits the batter .02% of the time or less. (He actually has been also "beaned" by four stikes. So yeah Quentin is a fracking duechebag, who practically cheats to get on base and steal the inner third of the strike zone from the pitcher. Then he has the balls to injure a guy who is alomst 50 pounds lighter than him. That is a puto move.
If I'm the Dodgers, I sign Julian Taveras to a minor league contract and when rosters expand call him up for a home series in August against the Padres. Heck maybe we just found a team that would be interested in aquiring the services of Aceves. (This is in jest - BTW)
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Post by sdiaz1 on Apr 13, 2013 10:56:54 GMT -5
Spending 30 million dollars on very talented, rather raw, 20 year old ball-players with no experience outside of an island nation that is stuck in a 30 year time warp ( one of whom had not played organized baseball in over a year) is an extremly risky proposition and one that likely has ramifications throughout the organization. As a die-hard Sox fan who follows the system closely and who happens to be Cuban, I'd love to have either Puig or Soler but honestly I would have had serious doubts when they signed. Lets remeber the previuos young power-hitting phenom from Cuba was Dayan Viciedo, a certainly useful guy to have but some one who is a solid second division regular.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Apr 8, 2013 12:03:01 GMT -5
I believe that Iglesias has shown us many of the things that we could have reasonably wanted to see from him so far in the brief season.
From a scouting perspective he has demonstrated that he does in fact have the much reported but little seen bat speed, that sox scouts have been telling us about for a while, this has allowed him to turn on several pitches and make solid contact. He also has shown us that while his speed is not anything special, that he has excellent accleration and quickness allowing him to get from home to first in short time. In this way he reminds me of Luis Castillo, another guy who was not conventionally fast, but would leg out 30-40 infield hits a season. Lastly Iglesias has also shown that he can in fact bunt. I know that this will make several people smirk and shake their heads, and I whole-heartedly agree with the mantra that the only productive out is made when your guy is on the mound. But his two bunts were beautiful, expertly done, and were placed with the intention of getting on base. Players with the ability to bunt for base hits without having 70-80 speed are rare, but from Iglesias' two attempts this week, I could envision him using it as a tool to sneak in an extra dozen or so hits a season.
Statistically, not much really matters at this point with the sample being soo miniscule. I would point out however that he has lowered his O-Swing% by 9% according to PitchFX (Granted BIS says the xact oppossite - so really that is SSS noise) additionaly while I initially thouht that he had been doing a better job at seeing pitches this season, he is actually seeing slightly less pitches (granted it does seem like everything in the zone he swings at he also hits) than he did last year, and his K% has plummeted 17%. Again with the SSS, I would honestly ignore the K and BB rates from both his 18PA this season and 77 PA last season and focus on the almost 400 he tallied in Pawtucket where he walked in 7% of his PA's and K'ed in 12% of the time.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Mar 21, 2013 0:26:48 GMT -5
Why on earth would we lump a kid who was drafted out high school and only has one season of professional baseball under his belt to two highly polished college prospects and a guy with 5 years of experience? Obviously of that group Owens will have the greatest range of possible outcomes.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Mar 6, 2013 0:33:23 GMT -5
Sadly, Detroit has pretty uninspiring farm system once you get past Catellanos and Rondon (two guys with pretty big flaws). I really do like Jake Thompson, but I feel like that would be a pipe dream.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Feb 17, 2013 23:33:11 GMT -5
A tidbit from the guy at Baseballprospect Nation regarding Appel and his Fastball ( A site that I admitedly am quite fond of) "Has life in the strike zone and is difficult to square up. Ball jumps out of his hand. When his arm slot dips, he can get some arm-side movement that gets in hard on right-handed hitters. Good angle to the plate compensates for lack of vertical movement. When he elevates, ball will show some “hop” and consistently miss the barrel of the bat. Consistently imparting movement as desired would be a big step forward. Grade – 60/70" baseballprospectnation.com/2012/03/12/draft-scouting-report-mark-appel-rhp/
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Post by sdiaz1 on Feb 17, 2013 12:22:48 GMT -5
Mark Appel is doing nothing to dispel the notion that he isn't worth a pick in the first three rounds. Can we trust the team who took Deven Marrero to understand that? Probably not. Awesome job of using a smple size of five innings to make a sweeping declaration about a players value. Appel is as of right now a consensus top 10 pick. He could concievably fall to the back end of the first round, but as long as he does not suffer any serious injury the dude is undoubtedly picked (justifiably - I maight add) before the end of the first round.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Jan 23, 2013 8:53:41 GMT -5
I know that a site dedicated to prospect watching is likely going to be plagued by homerism, but how any one can actually argue that any of our prospects other than Xander and maybe if you squint hard enough Bradley are untouchable is rather silly.
De La Rossa- Has phenomenal stuff no doubt and could become a top rotation guy. BUt he currently lacks the comand and control to do so and is more likely never to gain it. Additionaly he has a lengthy injury history. There is a reason why he was practically giving to us as part of a 250 million dollar gift basket from LA.
Barnes- Pitching prospects have a tendency to break your heart... or simply break. Yes he could be a number 2, but he has not yet faced high quality batters and tends to rely too heavily on his fb which on its own is enough to get guys out in A ball.
Doubront-Projects to be valuable in the way that a guy who can give you a season worth of moderatley above average innings is valuable.
WMB- Ditto on what was said on Doubront but change to guy with 20+ Home Runs and good defense at third.
Bryce Brentz- Is like Will Myers, if Myers had the cieling of Ryan Ludwick.
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