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To Whom Should the Red Sox Make a Qualifying Offer?
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Post by sibbysisti on Aug 5, 2013 8:26:17 GMT -5
I'd go with all four Ells-obviously (As a side note, I'd love to keep Ellsbury at something similar to the 4/$48 that Bourn got. That might not be realistic when dealing with Boras, though Drew-he probably wouldn't accept it, and if he did, Xander could play 3B. (If WMB is doing well, there would be a bit of a logjam. But we could always trade Drew) Napoli-I think that Napoli is underrated here. He strikes out a lot, sure, but he's also leading the majors in pitches/PA, something that bodes well for the red sox team. (To be fair, P/PA is related to strikeouts, but strikeouts aren't really much worse than any other out.) Salty-Unless we can trade for a catcher like Mauer, I'm not comfortable with a Lavarnway/Vasquez stopgap until Swihart is ready, which could be years. How can you say "strikeouts aren't really much worse than any other outs", when the record proves otherwise? There are countless examples of a batter advancing a runner or scoring a run by either a ground out or fly out. A strikeout does absolutely nothing to help a team. There is a difference.
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Post by bluechip on Aug 5, 2013 8:37:02 GMT -5
I'd go with all four Ells-obviously (As a side note, I'd love to keep Ellsbury at something similar to the 4/$48 that Bourn got. That might not be realistic when dealing with Boras, though Drew-he probably wouldn't accept it, and if he did, Xander could play 3B. (If WMB is doing well, there would be a bit of a logjam. But we could always trade Drew) Napoli-I think that Napoli is underrated here. He strikes out a lot, sure, but he's also leading the majors in pitches/PA, something that bodes well for the red sox team. (To be fair, P/PA is related to strikeouts, but strikeouts aren't really much worse than any other out.) Salty-Unless we can trade for a catcher like Mauer, I'm not comfortable with a Lavarnway/Vasquez stopgap until Swihart is ready, which could be years. How can you say "strikeouts aren't really much worse than any other outs", when the record proves otherwise? There are countless examples of a batter advancing a runner or scoring a run by either a ground out or fly out. A strikeout does absolutely nothing to help a team. There is a difference. www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2617www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-strikeouts-stink/You also can't strikeout into a double play. If a player increases his strikeouts, he needs to either walk more, hit more home runs, or start getting more hits on balls in play. Napoli is not walking more and he he is not hitting more home runs. The problem with Napoli's strikeout rate is that it means he has less balls in play, and therefore requires a higher BABIP to maintain his OBP.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 5, 2013 9:12:46 GMT -5
There just aren't any big bats available at 1b. I'd like to keep Napoli. Would even give him 2 years. Don't see anything looming in our system that can replace him or be available in a trade. His OPS is .798 Mark Teixeira's OPS from 09-12 dropped from 948 to 846 to 835 to 807 and didn't count this year because he hasn't really played. He makes a full 10m more than Napoli even if Napoli hits all his incentives.
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Post by okin15 on Aug 5, 2013 9:13:53 GMT -5
to summarize, strikeouts are worse than other outs for two reasons: a) they cannot be productive the way a groundout or flyout can be and b) they are the result of NOT putting the ball in play, while other outs are potential hits until they hit a glove
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Post by The Goods on Aug 5, 2013 9:19:35 GMT -5
...and only a DP is worse than a K. Napoli is the only one who i'll not give the QO, because there will be many other 1Bs with his production in the next free agency.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 5, 2013 9:50:53 GMT -5
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Post by The Goods on Aug 5, 2013 10:05:19 GMT -5
Loney, Morse and Morales in free agency. Carp as internal option. Don't forget Napoli is a 115 wRC+ player in last 2 years.
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Post by elguapo on Aug 5, 2013 10:19:21 GMT -5
Player (Zips Projected fWAR, Est. Value) Napoli (2.9, $15.225M) (I used $5.25M/fWAR - not sure if someone has a better number.) And next year if Napoli regresses toward his career .309 babip, and is still striking out 33+% or worse, and if his fielding grades out at average? He's also very likely to be a year older and is probably on the down slope - and that's aside from his chronic condition. That's a substantial downside when thinking about a contract for next year, for the Sox and for potential suitors.
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Post by buffs4444 on Aug 5, 2013 10:40:49 GMT -5
Salty and Ells, with the presumption that most likely only Salty will be back.
Drew....no. Was happy when he signed but he was a bridge to X or Iglesias at the beginning of the year, and next year X should be a go.
Napoli's injury history scares me, as does his age. If both sides can realize this is the best situation for both parties on the right contract......maybe he's back.
The 1B situation may be thread worthy, given the dearth of capable free agents coming down the pike this year or next. May be the best way to fill is via trade....but then who? Finding a team with budget issues, one with a prospect coming up that is blocked, etc.....
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 10:45:41 GMT -5
I would say that's a certainty.
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Post by elguapo on Aug 5, 2013 10:49:21 GMT -5
I would say that's a certainty. Lord willin' an' the creek don't rise....
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 5, 2013 10:57:17 GMT -5
Loney, Morse and Morales in free agency. Carp as internal option. Don't forget Napoli is a 115 wRC+ player in last 2 years. We already tried Loney. Doubt we go back to him. Morales can't play 1b every day. He's played 27 games at 1b and DH'd 78. He's not even a consideration until Papi leaves. Mark Morse has a career ops of 829 and Napoli is 854. I don't consider him an upgrade. Similiar, maybe if Napoli leaves. But, not any better.
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Post by bluechip on Aug 5, 2013 10:58:58 GMT -5
Napoli is having a good year. Not a great year, a good year. His offense is good. (.347 wOBA), and his defense has been above average at first.
I am just not comfortable with predicting him to be this productive next season. His BABIP is sitting at .376, which the fifth highest among qualified MLB hitters. His career BABIP is .309, and his previous career high was .344 during that outstanding 2010 season. What if his BABIP falls to his career level, .309? What if it falls to its 2012 level, .273?
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Aug 5, 2013 10:59:21 GMT -5
I'd go with all four ... Salty-Unless we can trade for a catcher like Mauer, I'm not comfortable with a Lavarnway/Vasquez stopgap until Swihart is ready, which could be years. Ross is signed through 2014. But Salty/Ross is better than X/Ross unless X is pretty good. I make QOs to the people up the middle, who will be in high demand: C Salty, SS Drew (unless he slumps/gets hurt badly), CF Ellsbury. The supply of OK 1b types means that no one else will pay $14M plus a first-round pick for Napoli, so we only make an offer to him if we want him back.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 12:27:28 GMT -5
It's not so much that they already tried him. It's that, you just don't know if what he's doing is sustainable and he's going to want a multi-year deal. Has wRAA of -.8 since June 1. Posters are right that there aren't a lot of options. Only Napoli, Lind, and Loney are above replacement level this year for 1B FAs and I would assume that the Jays bring Lind back for $5M.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 5, 2013 12:32:56 GMT -5
It's not so much that they already tried him. It's that, you just don't know if what he's doing is sustainable and he's going to want a multi-year deal. Has wRAA of -.8 since June 1. Posters are right that there aren't a lot of options. Only Napoli, Lind, and Loney are above replacement level this year for 1B FAs and I would assume that the Jays bring Lind back for $5M. We're having a fantastic season, and part of it is team chemistry. Can't bring em all back. We're 2nd in offense. Can't be all bad. Hoping Bogaerts hits the ground running and can bat 5th behind Papi. That way you can drop Napoli to 7th and hoping WMB comes back and bats 9th. Salty 8th and Nava/Carp/Gomes 6th. One scenario where I would be more agreeable to letting Napoli walk is this. Sign Ellsbury. Go with the Roadrunner Outfield of Ells/Victorino/JBJ. Gomes is your 4th of. Play Nava/Carp at 1b.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2013 12:51:18 GMT -5
That may not turn out as well as you think. I'd rather take my chances with Napoli.
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 5, 2013 12:57:05 GMT -5
Drew....no. Was happy when he signed but he was a bridge to X or Iglesias at the beginning of the year, and next year X should be a go. They can trade Drew for a good return if he accepts the QO (and if the Sox don't want him to take away playing time from Xander). Do you not like that option or no?
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Post by jdb on Aug 5, 2013 13:15:00 GMT -5
Im starting to think Drew almost certainly gets one. He's playing very good D and has a good OBP. I saw an article last week that mentioned scouts seem to think he would have 15+ HRs if he didn't play in Fenway and looking at his hit chart its hard to argue. I think Salty gets one to basically help kill his market and increase the likelihood he resigns. With Napoli I am leaning no but if he finishes strong I could see it. Some of these guys who we talk about maybe replacing Naploi could get offered a QO to. The Mariners are dying for offense and probably give one to Morales. I could even see STL giving Beltran one. One year deals for guys that are producing aren't a bad thing for teams and if it hurts their value on the market to increase the chances he resigns oh well. Drew hit chart msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/stephen-drew/hitchart/335725?q=stephen-drew
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Aug 5, 2013 13:18:35 GMT -5
That may not turn out as well as you think. I'd rather take my chances with Napoli. Someone somewhere has suggested Hassan/Carp. Plus Carp has almost always hit LHP better than Nava, who is much better vs RHP
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alnipper
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Living the dream
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Post by alnipper on Aug 5, 2013 14:37:58 GMT -5
I'd make a QO on all four. Drew in my mind is the only one I'd hesitate on. Napoli is as we know a power hitting right-handed hitter. Power hitting righties are in high demand, so he probably will get offered a 2 year contract.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 5, 2013 15:02:41 GMT -5
Less than a year ago, no one in baseball was willing to give Napoli more than $5 mil in guaranteed money after his situation was in limbo for over a month. Now some of you think he gets a QO. I don't get that one at all. His numbers haven''t been that good this year. And realistically, many are assuming he gets a multiyear deal more attractive than a $13-$14 mil 1 year deal? This one I do not understand at all.
It turned out that Mike Carp and James Loney and other near DFA types put up comparable numbers if not better than Napoli.
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Post by bluechip on Aug 5, 2013 15:19:32 GMT -5
Less than a year ago, no one in baseball was willing to give Napoli more than $5 mil in guaranteed money after his situation was in limbo for over a month. Now some of you think he gets a QO. I don't get that one at all. His numbers haven''t been that good this year. And realistically, many are assuming he gets a multiyear deal more attractive than a $13-$14 mil 1 year deal? This one I do not understand at all. It turned out that Mike Carp and James Loney and other near DFA types put up comparable numbers if not better than Napoli. James Loney has been as good as Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder. and better than Albert Pujols. There are very few great sluggers at first base right now. I am not saying either deserves a QO right now, but if you want to use Loney's name to say Napoli has been mediocre, then you also should like at big names like Pujols, Fielder, and Gonzalez to put it in context. Napoli has been one of the ten best offensive first basemen. He has also been great defensively.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 5, 2013 15:26:07 GMT -5
There just aren't any big bats available at 1b. I'd like to keep Napoli. Would even give him 2 years. Don't see anything looming in our system that can replace him or be available in a trade. His OPS is .798 Mark Teixeira's OPS from 09-12 dropped from 948 to 846 to 835 to 807 and didn't count this year because he hasn't really played. He makes a full 10m more than Napoli even if Napoli hits all his incentives. As was brought up in posts after this. Michael Morse is also a FA, has no possible hip issue that could derail his career and probably won't cost any more than Napoli. Morse also has crushing RH power and neither is a glove 1st guy at 1b. Both should be platoon 1st guys at 1b anyway, allowing the team to utilize Carp vs RH pitchers as the team should be currently with Napoli anyway. Offering Napoli a QO is a sure fire way to get "stuck" with him at an inflated price tag for 2014 IMO, same with Salty. Martin, at Pittsburg for instance got 2/17m last year via FA and puts up the same offensive numbers and is a FAR better defensive catcher than Salty ever was. Giving Salty the option of tripling his current 4.5m salary with around 13.5m next season would be a near no brainer on his part.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Aug 5, 2013 15:26:21 GMT -5
Less than a year ago, no one in baseball was willing to give Napoli more than $5 mil in guaranteed money after his situation was in limbo for over a month. Now some of you think he gets a QO. I don't get that one at all. His numbers haven''t been that good this year. And realistically, many are assuming he gets a multiyear deal more attractive than a $13-$14 mil 1 year deal? This one I do not understand at all. It turned out that Mike Carp and James Loney and other near DFA types put up comparable numbers if not better than Napoli. I think Napoli is probably the least likely to get a QO, but you're spinning the narrative the way you framed it. You could just as easily say 9 months ago a team was willing to give him a 3 year/$39M offer coming off a relatively poor season. He had some concerns about his health, but has shown that he can play through them. He has also shown that he can play first effectively on a full time basis. His numbers have actually been quite good this year. He projects to finish the year as about a 3 WAR player. Napoli has now finished with 2 or more WAR in 6 strait seasons and 7 of 8 overall. I believe it is a safe bet that he is able to get a one year deal worth about $10 to $12 million. The question just becomes, does he turn down a qualifying offer to try and get a second year (or third?)? Or does he take the extra couple million and settle for the one year deal?
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