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To Whom Should the Red Sox Make a Qualifying Offer?
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 19, 2013 11:43:37 GMT -5
Definite QO
1. Ellsbury. Boras client, above-average CFer. The Red Sox are not going to pay him what he wants and he'll definitely get a multi-year contract elsewhere, so a QO is a no-brainer.
Likely QO
2. Napoli. The good news is that he has taken to first base and his hips have not been an issue. The bad news is that he hasn't really hit home runs (although he's on the verge of setting a career high in doubles) and his K-rate is astronomical. I think it's more likely than not that he gets a QO because the Red Sox have no real depth at the position in the organization, he's a good fit for the organization and the Red Sox would like him to return on a year-to-year contract. I think Napoli will shop for a multi-year deal and then give the Red Sox a shot to match it.
Possible QO
3. Drew. Boras client on a pillow contract. However, his year has been somewhat disappointing. I think his performance over the second half will help make the decision whether Drew gets an offer. I don't see Drew returning to the Red Sox next year, regardless of whether he receives a QO.
4. Saltalamacchia. Here's the most interesting decision among the four. Salty has had a good, but not great, year. But ... Lavarnway hasn't stood out, Ross has a serious concussion and the best offensive catcher in the organization (Swihart) is two years away, at best. Salty is making $4.5mm in his final arb year and he just turned 28 years old. So, I'm inclined to make him a QO, because he's likely looking for a long-term contact, even at less money, to cover his prime years. The next interesting decision is whether the Red Sox should sign Salty for multiple years (3-4, $8-9mm per year) or are they prepared for a Lavarnway/Ross tandem as an eventual bridge to Swihart/CVaz.
Discuss.
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Post by ewan25 on Jul 19, 2013 12:03:37 GMT -5
i say give them all QO except maybe Drew unless he picks it up this second half we were gonna sign Napoli for 13 mil a year originally so it wouldnt matter if he accepted seeing as that was his original contract ellsbury is a no brainer and salty because solid offense catchers with average to above average defense aren't common and some will be willing to grab him
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 19, 2013 12:13:22 GMT -5
Good thread.
-Ellsbury is obviously getting a QO. He's a better player than Michael Bourn who got a multi-year deal. The Sox would love to have him back on a one year, $15 mil commitment, so there's no danger in offering it to him. They probably don't resign him, given that CF is something of an organizational strength right now.
-I could see Napoli accepting the QO if he's offered it. His hip problem is still going to be there, so that limits his chance to get a multi-year deal. If he does, he gets what - two years, $20-$23 mil? Accepting the QO wouldn't be a bad idea. He's essentially been a league-average first baseman. .259/.343/.448 compared to .261/.336/.451 for 1B around the league. Among the 28 first baseman in the majors with enough PAs to qualify, he's 12th in OBP, 19th in SLG (but only 20 points out of 12th). He's also third among first baseman in doubles. So, as frustrating as the strikeouts are, he's probably been a positive. I'd lean toward yes.
-I don't see Drew getting one. First off, Iglesias and Bogaerts should both be ready to be every day players. While I think having a veteran backup is essential in case one of them falters, I don't think paying $15 mil for that veteran backup is a great idea. Also, I think him being a Boras client may actually be a reason he won't get one here. A lot of teams would shy away from Drew if he'd require compensation. The Red Sox, as a way of politicking with Boras, may decline the QO to keep Drew's market robust (and make Boras happy).
-Saltalamacchia is the toughest choice, for sure. He's having a good season and the catching position doesn't have any depth at all around the league. On the other hand, his high BABIP and terrible contact rate make him very likely for a regression in the second half. His line since joining the Red Sox is .236/.302/.450. There are only 18 catchers with 200 plate appearances with a .300 OBP this year, and only 12 with even a .400 slugging percentage. Given the other options, even a Saltamacchia that's closer to 2011-12 than 2013 might be worth a QO.
I can't see all three of Napoli, Drew and Saltalamacchia getting qualifying offers, though. That would put about $42-45M on the payroll of averageness and could leave them with a rather Ricciardi-era Blue Jays type of roster.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jul 19, 2013 12:14:00 GMT -5
I would give all except Drew(Because there is depth at the position and he would be likely to take it), there is not a lot of harm in a 1 year 13m deal because at worst they might accept and have them for one year or you have extra pick which will help you sign other free agents with QOs let alone the benefits for the draft.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 19, 2013 12:21:44 GMT -5
Ellsbury and Salty. If Salty signs it, we could use him anyway. What are the rules regarding the deadline for signing QO?
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Post by okin15 on Jul 19, 2013 12:22:03 GMT -5
right now, Salty, Napoli, Ells. Depends on Salty and Napoli's production going forward though of course. Drew seems unlikely just cause I really can't handle him accepting.
ADD: for the logjam reasons above... not cause of his play, which I think has been good.
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Post by TheCerebral1 on Jul 19, 2013 12:27:52 GMT -5
I believe that the only qualifying offers go to Napoli and Ellsbury. Napoli has been productive and has done what he was brought in to do. He's also played through some likely pain. Bye to Drew, and for my perspective I doubt Saltalamacchia gets one.
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Post by bluechip on Jul 19, 2013 12:35:15 GMT -5
I am thinking Ellsbury and Salty. No way for Drew, he has been hurt and would only serve to block Iglesias and Xander.
Napoli is questionable. It would depend on how the rest season goes. If the strikeout rate continues to climb, I'd probably pass (20 ks in 41 July atbats!).
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 19, 2013 12:37:54 GMT -5
I believe that the only qualifying offers go to Napoli and Ellsbury. Napoli has been productive and has done what he was brought in to do. He's also played through some likely pain. Bye to Drew, and for my perspective I doubt Saltalamacchia gets one. Napoli did most of what he's done in April. I'm souring on him quickly. This slump has gone on too long to be a slump. |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 19, 2013 12:40:45 GMT -5
I'd say all but Drew. I'm just afraid he takes it. If he does, where does he play? Xander, Iglesias, and WMB are all going to be pushing for playing time, I say just let Drew go. Unless he starts tearing it up in the second half. He is a Boras client so maybe he'd be more inclined to test the market if that were the case.
Off topic, but if a team signs, say, Ells and we extended a QO, do we get their pick slot or do they lose their pick and we get a pick at the end of the first round?
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Post by bsout2 on Jul 19, 2013 12:43:03 GMT -5
With catching the way it is (nothing in the immediate minors), I actually think the Red Sox make an effort to sign Salty for 3 or 4 years.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 19, 2013 12:46:09 GMT -5
With catching the way it is (nothing in the immediate minors), I actually think the Red Sox make an effort to sign Salty for 3 or 4 years. I would love to see a Salty/Vazquez tandem (I think Lava gets traded eventually) and then once Swihart is ready trade Salty off. |
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Post by bluechip on Jul 19, 2013 12:48:11 GMT -5
Off topic, but if a team signs, say, Ells and we extended a QO, do we get their pick slot or do they lose their pick and we get a pick at the end of the first round? They lose their first round pick and the Red Sox get a pick at the end of the first round. |
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Post by ikonos on Jul 19, 2013 12:55:15 GMT -5
I think Ells and Salty will get QO's. Napoli might get it if he picks it up and be atleast above average 1B in the second half. I think Sox might be looking at Carp to get more AB if Napoli leaves but not sure if they trust him enough as a LF yet.
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Post by onbase on Jul 19, 2013 13:02:19 GMT -5
Ellsbury: The very definition of no-brainer. I just hope he doesn't land in New York.
Napoli: See amfox's opening post.
Drew: No, because he might accept. I like him, but I like Jose and the depth behind him better.
Salty: Yes, because there's no risk. We either get a draft pick or a known quantity for a year. I'm OK with the Lavarnway / Ross bridge and would not offer him a longer term deal.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 19, 2013 13:11:45 GMT -5
Ellsbury: Obviously. The Sox will get a pick when he leaves. Hope they make it a great one. To me the bigger question is where he goes, not if he gets a qualifying offer. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Yankees go after him, but we'll see.
Napoli: I would if he has a decent second half because you're talking a one year commitment - if you lose him, fine, you get a draft pick, but odds are if he plays well enough and stays healthy odds are he'll be back with the Sox in 2014. If he tanks and it looks like a guy who'll hit like Rob Deer next year, then the Sox won't give him a QO.
Drew: No way would I give him one. That would be Boras' dream pillow contract and he'd have Drew accept the offer. No team is going to give Drew big $ or big years. The risk would be too great that the Sox are paying $13 - $14 million for a guy who's not better than Iglesias, spends time on the DL, and forces Iglesias over to 3rd where he least belongs. By 2014 Bogaerts will be in the conversation as well, and if WMB bounces back, I don't see the need for Drew. Holt could even give them some help at SS in a pinch.
Salty: Yes, give him a QO. It won't be much more per year than what the Sox will spend to sign him to a longer deal anyways, which is what I think will happen. The will spend somewhere around $12 million/year for the next 3 years to sign him. He'll be their catcher until Swihart and Vazquez are ready.
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Jul 19, 2013 13:12:16 GMT -5
No way Drew. Would you give up a first round pick for very good defense and a 240 bat playing 110 games a year? Just because he is a Boras client doesn't mean that Scott Boras is and idiot and will not accept a qualifying offer that a child could have made a decision on.
Ells: Yes, no question or decision to make
Nap: If picks it up a little (.270 w/ 20 HRs by the end of the year) Yes
Salty: Yes, known commodity no risk involved
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Post by elguapo on Jul 19, 2013 13:20:42 GMT -5
Do we have an idea what the QO amount will be next offseason?
Drew I think will likely be worth a QO - he could accept, but even though it seems like we have a lot of names in the mix for next year, if they trade Middlebrooks, for example, you could go into next season with Xander-Iglesias-Drew on the left side, which is a fine mix.
Napoli's performance is worrisome. I think they don't offer a QO - they didn't guarantee anything near $14M last year and I think they try to get him to sign for less. He's another season removed from his monster year and is looking very average. And like many of us, he'll be a year older next year.
Saltalamacchia's case is bizarre. As sickening as it would be to pay him $13-$14M for a sub .300 OBP (should they offer and he accept), what else would they spend the money on?
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 19, 2013 13:20:56 GMT -5
Consider this about Napoli. His ISO is at a career low .188, 53 points lower than career avg. His BAPIP is at a career high of .382, 73 points higher than his career avg.
To be fair, his LD % is at a career high and HR/FB% is at a career low. But his BB% is down and K% is up to Rob Deer levels.
He is one of the strangest hitters I've ever seen. How often do you see a guy who hits so many line drives and also swings and misses at so many pitches? I wouldn't risk bringing him back. He just looks close to the end of his career.
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Post by rider on Jul 19, 2013 13:28:56 GMT -5
I see Ellsbury and Salty both definitely getting the QO.
Drew I could see it since I doubt he would want to sign here when Iglesias and Bogaerts are both better SS options for 2014.
Napoli not unless he improves his strikeouts, but I could still see it happening if the sox don't see any better 1B options. (Carp/Middlebrooks might emerge as the full time first baseman or platoon)
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Post by ray88h66 on Jul 19, 2013 13:39:35 GMT -5
Ellsbury . 100 % yes. Someone will blow him away with a long term offer and the sox get a pick.
Napoli. No, mostly this is the fan in me speaking. I can't stand to watch him hit, field, or run.
Drew. No way.
Salty. Yes. His hitting is good enough to make up for the bad d for another year or 2 till the help comes from the minors.
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Post by jdb on Jul 19, 2013 13:48:02 GMT -5
Ells is a no brainer yes and Drew is nearly a lock not to get one. As of today I think Salty gets one (try to sign 3 years) and Napoli doesn't. I think Napoli is going through more than a slump and I think Nava could be the 1B next year with us signing or trading for a corner OFer.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 19, 2013 14:05:20 GMT -5
Off topic, but if a team signs, say, Ells and we extended a QO, do we get their pick slot or do they lose their pick and we get a pick at the end of the first round? They lose their first round pick and the Red Sox get a pick at the end of the first round. This is still good, especially in the loaded draft class next year. Realistically we could have 4 picks at the back of the first round, including our normal one. |
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 19, 2013 14:13:21 GMT -5
I think some of you are conflating this question with "do you want this player on the team next year?" which is not the question at all. I think all four of these guys are no-brainers, with the possible exception of Drew depending on how much more time he misses.
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Post by bluechip on Jul 19, 2013 14:21:05 GMT -5
I think some of you are conflating this question with "do you want this player on the team next year?" which is not the question at all. I think all four of these guys are no-brainers, with the possible exception of Drew depending on how much more time he misses. With Napoli and Drew, the question is absolutely whether you want them next year for approximately 14 million, since with both will probably accept a QO. They received less money this year (without being tied to draft pick compensation) and have done nothing to improve their stock. |
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