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To Whom Should the Red Sox Make a Qualifying Offer?
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 20, 2013 13:10:26 GMT -5
So, how did he get 10m this year? I think you guys are vastly overrating what 14m is worth in the free agent market, particularly on a one year deal. He got $10 million because the Red Sox dumped a boatload of money last year and instead of rebuilding like most teams dumping salary, they decided to reload. Doubt they would have signed Drew if he cost $14 million. $10 million isn't $14 million, and as it was the Red Sox blew their competition out of the water giving him $10 million, and I doubt any team would be crazy enough to pay Drew $14 million for a year. It's not like his value shot up an additional $4 million based on the season he's having or the amount of time he's actually spent on the field. Now we are just making stuff up. Yanks offered Drew more money to play third. bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/boston_red_sox/2013/07/stephen_drew_chose_short_stop_over_ny_stay
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 20, 2013 13:14:38 GMT -5
1. The Sox should make a qualifying offer to Ellsbury, and it should be a strong offer, one that he, and Boros, will think hard about before they rejected it. The Sox should want him back and should try to get him. 2. Let Napoli go without an offer. He isn't going to get better. If he is realistic about his chances of getting a better offer elsewhere, he probably would accept the offer. He might well be dead weight next season. He is now, at times. It would be very difficult to trade him for any value. 3. Let Drew go without an offer. He also might be realistic about his chances elsewhere and accept the offer. He is not good enough to be a shortstop on a championship level team. And he would be hard to trade for value. 4. Make a good offer to Salty with the intent to keep him. He is the best the Sox have now. If the opportunity came to make a really significant upgrade at catcher, he, unlike Napoli or Drew, could be traded easily. There is only one qualifying offer to make. They'll 100% reject it, unless something drastically changes. After that you can negotiate like anyone else. No chance I go 5 years on Jacoby and it will take at least that to sign him. Good player... Not great and hasn't been consistent. Thanks for the six.... Errr 4 years
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Post by jmei on Jul 20, 2013 13:25:46 GMT -5
Here's the thing: even if the Red Sox have to eat money to flip Drew/Napoli/Saltalamacchia if they accept the QO and the Red Sox don't want them, that's exactly how they should be using their financial muscle. Let's look risk/reward here: -Reward: late first-round picks are worth a lot under the new CBA, especially for teams like the Red Sox who hope to be perennially contending and so will never get the high draft slot early picks but will still want to nab overslot guys who slip into the later rounds. -Risk: minimal for a big-market team like the Red Sox who are unlikely to spend up to the luxury tax limit next year. If they eat $6m of the contract and only get a reliever or a mediocre prospect in return, who cares? Risking some cash to get a first-round pick is exactly how I want my big-market team to be wielding its extra payroll, as opposed to overpaying for so-called "superstars" like Josh Hamilton or Zack Greinke. -Probability of accepting QO: Drew: check out the list of 2014 free agent shortstops. It's Jhonny Peralta, Stephen Drew, and noone else. If Drew comes back, stays healthy the rest of the year, and maintains or exceeds his YTD line, he'll be a 3 fWAR player hitting free agency at age 30. He's going to get multi-year contract offers in the $10m+ AAV range, especially from wannabe contenders with bad shortstop situations (think Cardinals, Pirates, Reds, Royals, Yankees, etc). Saltalamacchia: there are a few more starting-caliber FA catchers, but he's only 28, has little injury history, and will be coming off a very solid season. And, as other posters have noted, I don't mind having him back for one year and $14m. Napoli: he's the trickiest of the three. He hasn't been good since April, there are some other decent 1B on the free agent market, and there are still long-term injury worries. I lean towards no right now, but all it takes is one hot streak for his value to shoot right up to the point where I'm comfortable offering the QO.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 20, 2013 14:36:05 GMT -5
"Saltalamacchia: there are a few more starting-caliber FA catchers, but he's only 28, has little injury history, and will be coming off a very solid season. And, as other posters have noted, I don't mind having him back for one year and $14m."
No offense JMEI, but it boggles my mind seeing how Salty at 14m is even remotely fair value. His defense is below average (at best). His throwing is below Varitek level, considering the percentage of throws that get nowhere near the bag. His K rate generally hovers around 40%, which is as most no.. Leads to less of a chance of balls falling into play, hits, errors etc..
I fail to see any difference in Salty, than say Kelly Shoppach who brings those exact same offensive skills (massive K rate + Power), only has a much better arm and Shoppach floats around the DFA list quite often.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 20, 2013 14:43:24 GMT -5
1. The Sox should make a qualifying offer to Ellsbury, and it should be a strong offer, one that he, and Boros, will think hard about before they rejected it. The Sox should want him back and should try to get him. 2. Let Napoli go without an offer. He isn't going to get better. If he is realistic about his chances of getting a better offer elsewhere, he probably would accept the offer. He might well be dead weight next season. He is now, at times. It would be very difficult to trade him for any value. 3. Let Drew go without an offer. He also might be realistic about his chances elsewhere and accept the offer. He is not good enough to be a shortstop on a championship level team. And he would be hard to trade for value. 4. Make a good offer to Salty with the intent to keep him. He is the best the Sox have now. If the opportunity came to make a really significant upgrade at catcher, he, unlike Napoli or Drew, could be traded easily. There is only one qualifying offer to make. They'll 100% reject it, unless something drastically changes. After that you can negotiate like anyone else. No chance I go 5 years on Jacoby and it will take at least that to sign him. Good player... Not great and hasn't been consistent. Thanks for the six.... Errr 4 years Well, do I feel stupid. Somehow I missed the fact that a qualifying offer is a fixed item. That changes everything. So I retract my previous post. The only player who should get a qualifying offer is Ellsbury because he probably is the only one who will reject it. I think jmei's reasoning is sound, but I don't believe any team will give up a first round draft choice to sign Drew or Napoli. Salty, maybe, just because there aren't many decent catchers around. I understand there aren't that many decent shortstops, either, but I think there are plenty who are decent fielders even if they don't hit much. Drew's hitting isn't good enough to justify giving up a first round choice. I think the Sox still should try to sign Ellsbury and Salty.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 20, 2013 14:46:58 GMT -5
No offense JMEI, but it boggles my mind seeing how Salty at 14m is even remotely fair value. His defense is below average (at best). His throwing is below Varitek level, considering the percentage of throws that get nowhere near the bag. His K rate generally hovers around 40%, which is as most no.. Leads to less of a chance of balls falling into play, hits, errors etc.. There are stats which take the chances of balls falling into play etc. into account, and they tell us that Salty has been providing league-average offense (99 wRC+ since 2011) at a position where below-average offense is often accepted. Furthermore, there is much more to playing the catcher position than throwing. I am far from an expert, but my impression is that Salty is poor at throwing, excellent at blocking, about average at framing, well above average at game-calling and somewhat above average at stuff like catching pop-ups and blocking the plate. So if you look at the whole picture then Salty does just fine defensively.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jul 20, 2013 15:06:13 GMT -5
No offense JMEI, but it boggles my mind seeing how Salty at 14m is even remotely fair value. His defense is below average (at best). His throwing is below Varitek level, considering the percentage of throws that get nowhere near the bag. His K rate generally hovers around 40%, which is as most no.. Leads to less of a chance of balls falling into play, hits, errors etc.. There are stats which take the chances of balls falling into play etc. into account, and they tell us that Salty has been providing league-average offense (99 wRC+ since 2011) at a position where below-average offense is often accepted. Furthermore, there is much more to playing the catcher position than throwing. I am far from an expert, but my impression is that Salty is poor at throwing, excellent at blocking, about average at framing, well above average at game-calling and somewhat above average at stuff like catching pop-ups and blocking the plate. So if you look at the whole picture then Salty does just fine defensively. I just can't bring myself to supporting Salty as a great pitch caller. Tek yes. Salty, NWIH. Jmei has some interesting points, from a perspective I will admit I hadn't even considered, but when it all hits the fan we still have just a limited amount of cash available and I think we should be more prudent with it. I don't want Salty back at $13-$14 mil. Or Napoli. Or Drew. That frees up about $40 mil for other players like Kendry Morales or solid pitching help. Or even bringing back Ellsbury if it can be done for $80 mil or so over 5 years ( unlikely IMO ) and extending other important Redsox players. At least we get the 1st round pick with Ellsbury if things go well in the 2nd half and yes that is worth a lot. About $7-10 mil to me going forward.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jul 20, 2013 15:11:32 GMT -5
Money we could potentially use to do a deal like the Jake Peavey situation. Take on salary for a guy with a 1.16 Whip who isn't worth the salary maybe but still gives you a quality starting pitcher. Just a potential example of a salary dump deal the Sox might consider.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2013 15:18:51 GMT -5
He got $10 million because the Red Sox dumped a boatload of money last year and instead of rebuilding like most teams dumping salary, they decided to reload. Doubt they would have signed Drew if he cost $14 million. $10 million isn't $14 million, and as it was the Red Sox blew their competition out of the water giving him $10 million, and I doubt any team would be crazy enough to pay Drew $14 million for a year. It's not like his value shot up an additional $4 million based on the season he's having or the amount of time he's actually spent on the field. Now we are just making stuff up. Yanks offered Drew more money to play third. bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/boston_red_sox/2013/07/stephen_drew_chose_short_stop_over_ny_stayI guess I stand corrected. My memory of it was that the Yankees offered more money but I thought it was a 2 year deal and less money/year and I do recall that they wanted him to play some 3b. But I still don't see another team wanting to pay Drew $14 million for the year, particulary since he hasn't played a full season since 2010. You'd be down to desperate big market clubs at that $ amount and I don't foresee too many teams wanting him at that figure. If the Sox had to pay him $14 million, they'd get nothing from the Yankees who probably could use Drew in 2014. He's a decent player, but between Iglesias and Bogaerts, I think the Red Sox have the left side of the infield covered for 2014. I'd rather see the Red Sox spend their money elsewhere to improve the club.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 20, 2013 15:25:22 GMT -5
He's a decent player, but between Iglesias and Bogaerts, I think the Red Sox have the left side of the infield covered for 2014. I'd rather see the Red Sox spend their money elsewhere to improve the club. Have you actually been reading the thread? Once again, if Drew accepts a QO that does not mean that he must necessarily play for the Red Sox.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 20, 2013 15:26:20 GMT -5
No offense JMEI, but it boggles my mind seeing how Salty at 14m is even remotely fair value. His defense is below average (at best). His throwing is below Varitek level, considering the percentage of throws that get nowhere near the bag. His K rate generally hovers around 40%, which is as most no.. Leads to less of a chance of balls falling into play, hits, errors etc.. There are stats which take the chances of balls falling into play etc. into account, and they tell us that Salty has been providing league-average offense (99 wRC+ since 2011) at a position where below-average offense is often accepted. Furthermore, there is much more to playing the catcher position than throwing. I am far from an expert, but my impression is that Salty is poor at throwing, excellent at blocking, about average at framing, well above average at game-calling and somewhat above average at stuff like catching pop-ups and blocking the plate. So if you look at the whole picture then Salty does just fine defensively. Not purposely trying to tear Salty down in all these posts of mine, but realize that every positive noted for the guy is exactly what varitek gave in his last 2 years and he was making 2-2.5m. If FAR superior game calling, framing skills as a plus is all the team wanted? They wouldn't have more or less "Tek to retire a couple years back when he would have returned for less than 2-2.5m and he'd probably still be willing to give those same skills, even put up and OBP in the .300 range (Salty level) for 1-1.5m area. We have seen (example) Lavarnway throw better, even block balls better than advertised thus far. It seems to me just taking that chancey 14m and say.. Offering it to Koji at 2y is a 100% better expenditure. I wanted Tek and his terrible arm gone for years, but would rather have him back than pay Salty half of the 14m some here are more than willing risk him at next season.
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Post by jmei on Jul 20, 2013 15:43:06 GMT -5
Not purposely trying to tear Salty down in all these posts of mine, but realize that every positive noted for the guy is exactly what varitek gave in his last 2 years and he was making 2-2.5m. If FAR superior game calling, framing skills as a plus is all the team wanted? They wouldn't have more or less "Tek to retire a couple years back when he would have returned for less than 2-2.5m and he'd probably still be willing to give those same skills, even put up and OBP in the .300 range (Salty level) for 1-1.5m area. In his last three years with the Red Sox, Varitek hit .216/.306/.414 for an 85 wRC+ and a 14.6% CS (37/252). In the last three years, Saltalamacchia hit .237/.301/.451 for a wRC+ of 99 and a 23.7% CS (65/274). Combine that with Saltalamacchia's huge advantage in durability, and it's not particularly close.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2013 17:09:27 GMT -5
He's a decent player, but between Iglesias and Bogaerts, I think the Red Sox have the left side of the infield covered for 2014. I'd rather see the Red Sox spend their money elsewhere to improve the club. Have you actually been reading the thread? Once again, if Drew accepts a QO that does not mean that he must necessarily play for the Red Sox. Yes, I know he can be traded. That's been covered already. At $14 million/year I would think another team would want the Sox to kick in some money on that deal and the Sox wouldn't get much out of it.
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Post by elguapo on Jul 20, 2013 22:54:34 GMT -5
Not purposely trying to tear Salty down in all these posts of mine, but realize that every positive noted for the guy is exactly what varitek gave in his last 2 years and he was making 2-2.5m. If FAR superior game calling, framing skills as a plus is all the team wanted? They wouldn't have more or less "Tek to retire a couple years back when he would have returned for less than 2-2.5m and he'd probably still be willing to give those same skills, even put up and OBP in the .300 range (Salty level) for 1-1.5m area. In his last three years with the Red Sox, Varitek hit .216/.306/.414 for an 85 wRC+ and a 14.6% CS (37/252). In the last three years, Saltalamacchia hit .237/.301/.451 for a wRC+ of 99 and a 23.7% CS (65/274). I look at that comparison and I'm more inclined to side with johnsilver52's take. Salty is arguably/marginally better than the broken down husk of Jason Varitek depending how you value game-calling isn't a great argument for $14M even for one year. Surely there's something out there to better spend the money on?
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 21, 2013 5:26:00 GMT -5
14M is too much for Salty... Is it too much for next year? Depends if you would use he savings elsewhere or not.....
Salty is a lot better then Tek the last 2 years.... Arguing otherwise is foolhardy.... That doesn't mean Salty is worth 6 times the money.
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Post by bluechip on Jul 21, 2013 8:44:33 GMT -5
There are stats which take the chances of balls falling into play etc. into account, and they tell us that Salty has been providing league-average offense (99 wRC+ since 2011) at a position where below-average offense is often accepted. Furthermore, there is much more to playing the catcher position than throwing. I am far from an expert, but my impression is that Salty is poor at throwing, excellent at blocking, about average at framing, well above average at game-calling and somewhat above average at stuff like catching pop-ups and blocking the plate. So if you look at the whole picture then Salty does just fine defensively. Not purposely trying to tear Salty down in all these posts of mine, but realize that every positive noted for the guy is exactly what varitek gave in his last 2 years and he was making 2-2.5m. If FAR superior game calling, framing skills as a plus is all the team wanted? They wouldn't have more or less "Tek to retire a couple years back when he would have returned for less than 2-2.5m and he'd probably still be willing to give those same skills, even put up and OBP in the .300 range (Salty level) for 1-1.5m area. We have seen (example) Lavarnway throw better, even block balls better than advertised thus far. It seems to me just taking that chancey 14m and say.. Offering it to Koji at 2y is a 100% better expenditure. I wanted Tek and his terrible arm gone for years, but would rather have him back than pay Salty half of the 14m some here are more than willing risk him at next season. Actually the numbers show salty to be a very good pitch framer and Tek to be pretty bad.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 21, 2013 9:05:00 GMT -5
We have seen (example) Lavarnway throw better, even block balls better than advertised thus far. In his last start, I also saw Lavarnway turn approximately 3 strikes into called balls. And he is still nowhere near Salty's offensive production.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jul 21, 2013 10:01:09 GMT -5
The most intriguing part of this is that all three of these guys could go either way depending on their performance the rest of the season. With a strong finish any one of the three will likely be given a qualifying offer. With a very poor finish, they would each be highly unlikely to be given a QO.
Mike Napoli: 2014 Age: 32 Projected end of season fWAR (ZIPS): 2.5
2012 FA Comparables (age, contract, 2012 fWAR) Adam LaRoche (33, 2/$24, 3.4) Nick Swisher (32, 4/$56, 3.9) Cody Ross (32, 3/$26, 2.3) Shane Victorino (32, 3/$39, 2.9)
Conclusion: I see Napoli landing a contract somewhere around the $11M per year mark as a free agent and (given his hip condition) could see him having a hard time getting a third year guaranteed. If his projected contract is something like 2/$22 I think he would just take the QO (1/~$14). If he finishes this year strong I could see him being hopeful enough about landing a third year that he passes on the arbitration offer, but the most likely scenario for me is that his rest-of-season production is similar to what ZIPS projects and he becomes a strong candidate to accept a QO.
Prediction: The Red Sox don't have a lot of depth at 1B and have a good payroll situations so they decide to roll the dice on the QO. Napoli accepts and he's back on a 1 year $14M deal.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia: 2014 Age: 28 (29 on 5/2) Projected end of season fWAR (ZIPS): 2.2
2012 Comparables (age, contract, 2012 fWAR) Russell Martin (30, 2/$17, 2.1) AJ Pierzynski (36, 1/$7.5, 3.3)
Conclusion: I think Saltalamacchia's age really will work in his favor relative the the two comps listed. There are remarkably few ~2 WAR starting catchers that hit free agency at or before age 28. Because of this I could see him getting three years in the $10M/year range. If he feels he can get a three year deal at 8-figures per year, the QO deadlines will really come into play. If he finishes the season stronger than his ZIPS projection I think he's a safe bet to decline the QO. If he is at or below his ZIPS projection I think he is right on the fence on whether to accept or decline.
Prediction: Salty regresses some down the stretch and finishes short of his ZIPS projections. The Red Sox decide it is still worth it to offer him the QO due in large part to their lack of faith in other internal options. They end up working out a 2 or 3 year extension to replace the QO at a lower AAV.
Stephen Drew: 2014 Age: 31 Projected end of season fWAR (ZIPS): 2.2
There really weren't any good comps in 2012, so l'll go back to 2011. 2011 Comparables (age, contract, 2011 fWAR) Jimmy Rollins (34, 3/$38, 3.6)
Conclusion: There are remarkably few 2+WAR shortstops that hit free agency before the age of 32. It is really incredible. The best free agent shortstops the last few years have been guys like Jeter, Rollins, Furcal, and Scutaro (not including Reyes who is at another level). This gives me hope that there will be a strong market for Drew. Compared to the other two, he is most likely the one the Red Sox don't want to have back next year. He is also at the age where he won't have many more opportunities for a multi-year deal.
Prediction: The Red Sox offer take a chance and give him a QO. He declines, goes to free agency. He has trouble finding a team willing to give up a pick for him and he ends up signing for less than he hoped. The Red Sox net a pick.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jul 21, 2013 13:26:05 GMT -5
Trivia: Other than Jose Reyes, when was the last time a Shortstop was a free agent coming off a 2+ fWAR season before they turned 31?
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 21, 2013 13:32:48 GMT -5
Probably lugo or renteria
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 21, 2013 13:33:35 GMT -5
Jeter is technically the answer but not what you're looking for
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jul 21, 2013 14:01:54 GMT -5
I actually didn't know the answer. I just scanned back several years (back to 2006) and couldn't find anyone. It is exceedingly rare.
Also, there could be a pretty decent market for shortstops next year which will likely play into the Red Sox decision to give Drew a QO and his decision on whether to accept.
Teams that may be interested: Detroit - Peralta is a free agent and may be facing a drug suspension. St. Louis - Furcal is hurt and a free agent. Big opening here. Pittsburgh - They are competitive for the first time in a long time and could look to upgrade from Jordy Mercer. NY Mets - They have to start somewhere right? LA Dodgers - Move Hanley to third.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 21, 2013 14:42:59 GMT -5
Trivia: Other than Jose Reyes, when was the last time a Shortstop was a free agent coming off a 2+ fWAR season before they turned 31? Miguel Tejada?
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 21, 2013 15:01:20 GMT -5
Nice post, chavo. I agree with all of your conclusions, except I'm not sure how the Salty one will turn out.
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Post by theaveragefan88 on Jul 21, 2013 15:08:48 GMT -5
I am hoping for a lineup for next year like this:
1. Ells, CF (L) 2. Victorino, RF (S) 3. Pedey, 2B (R) 4. Ortiz, DH (L) 5. Bogey, 3B (R) 6. Carp, 1B (L) 7. Salty, C (S) 8. JBJ, LF (L) 9. Iglesias, SS (R)
So I would really be careful with offering Napoli and to a lesser extent Drew unless I was positive there was a market for them to sign a better deal elsewhere.
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