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To Whom Should the Red Sox Make a Qualifying Offer?
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Post by jacob22 on Jul 21, 2013 16:45:25 GMT -5
It is a no-brainer to give a qualifying offer to Ellsbury, and unless Drew plays like an All-Star the second half, he will not get a qualifying offer. I would give Salty a QO simply because he is a decent catcher, and there is not much in the system behind him that is MLB ready. The 14 mil he would cost would not hurt the Sox too bad because i dont see the Sox getting too close to the salary cap. Napoli's case is very interesting. Obviously, whether he gets a QO depends heavily on whether he plays well or not in the second half, but i also think it depends on whether they plan on signing Ellsbury back. If they do plan on signing Ellsbury their outfield depth chart could look like the following. LF:JBJ, Nava, Gomes, Carp CF:Ellsbury, JBJ RF:Victorino, JBJ, Nava This obviously leaves Nava and Carp, two very good hitters, with little at bats that, without Napoli, could be fulfilled at first base. Now if they do not plan on signing Ellsbury, it becomes more plausible to extend a QO to Napoli. But this again becomes very dependent on how not only Napoli does, but also JBJ, Nava, Carp, and Middlebrooks. There are many variables that must play out the rest of the year before any judgement is made on a potential QO to Napoli, but based on what I have seen so far, I would say they do not extend a QO to him
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 21, 2013 16:53:40 GMT -5
I am hoping for a lineup for next year like this: 1. Ells, CF (L) 2. Victorino, RF (S) 3. Pedey, 2B (R) 4. Ortiz, DH (L) 5. Bogey, 3B (R) 6. Carp, 1B (L) 7. Salty, C (S) 8. JBJ, LF (L) 9. Iglesias, SS (R) So I would really be careful with offering Napoli and to a lesser extent Drew unless I was positive there was a market for them to sign a better deal elsewhere. I would be reasonably happy with this lineup (though I could imagine an upgrade at 1B), and I still think it's absolutely a no-brainer to give Drew a QO.
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Post by kman22 on Jul 21, 2013 17:24:35 GMT -5
Ellsbury is a definite, and I think Salty and Napoli are both very likely. Napoli was going to make $13M per year, but they cut down his deal to protect against injury. Giving him the QO gives you the deal you were willing to pay him, while going year to year, and also protecting yourself in the event that he leaves. Lavarnway would need to have a stellar second half to give the front office enough confidence to let Salty walk, so the QO pretty much guarantees he will be here next year, and further more, buys Lavarnway another year to prove himself as the backup. I'm not too confident that Ross makes a return, as two concussions in a month is pretty serious.
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Post by orcoaster on Jul 21, 2013 17:56:15 GMT -5
Whereas a QO to Ellsbury is a no-brainer, everyone needs to start coming to terms with the fact that we are seeing the last days of Jacoby in the laundry. He seems locked in right now, poised for an explosive second half. He has hit 360/414/480 in June, and 358/414/566 so far in July. I would not at all be surprised to see him finish with a 330/400/580 line from here on. I've always believed his "phantom" power is for real. Now that he's healthy we'll see it.
A finish like that coupled with an agent like Boras equates to a new address. No way the RS will meet Boras' demands when JBJ is ready to provide 90% of Tacoby's value at 1/10 of the cost.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 21, 2013 18:04:30 GMT -5
A finish like that coupled with an agent like Boras equates to a new address. No way the RS will meet Boras' demands when JBJ is ready to provide 90% of Tacoby's value at 1/10 of the cost. So you're saying JBJ, who so far in his major league career has provided -0.4 WAR, is going to be a 4.5 WAR per season player as of next year? Keep dreaming. Also, you might not have noticed, but the Red Sox are actually one of the richer teams in baseball. Boras isn't going to magically double some other team's budget.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 21, 2013 18:14:03 GMT -5
Trivia: Other than Jose Reyes, when was the last time a Shortstop was a free agent coming off a 2+ fWAR season before they turned 31? Miguel Tejada? Jeter was technically a free agent before his last contract.
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Post by orcoaster on Jul 21, 2013 18:34:14 GMT -5
A finish like that coupled with an agent like Boras equates to a new address. No way the RS will meet Boras' demands when JBJ is ready to provide 90% of Tacoby's value at 1/10 of the cost. So you're saying JBJ, who so far in his major league career has provided -0.4 WAR, is going to be a 4.5 WAR per season player as of next year? Keep dreaming. Also, you might not have noticed, but the Red Sox are actually one of the richer teams in baseball. Boras isn't going to magically double some other team's budget. Dustin Pedroia put up 3.9 WAR in his rookie season, and I think JBJ is every bit the ballplayer Dustin is. So sure, I think an .820 OPS in CF is possible. I could be wrong, but I think the kid can play. You may underestimate what one or two other teams will be willing to throw at a healthy Taco.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jul 21, 2013 19:19:06 GMT -5
I think it is really easy to say this, but as I mentioned above, there are a lot of reasons it would make sense to make him a QO. First, he has to stay on the field. If he gets hurt again this year then it probably won't be worth it. Second, he has to produce roughly to the level of his ZIPS projection: .244/.319/.399 with above average defense. At that point the only thing that matters is how Drew sees the market in the first week of free agency. And this is what he sees: -He is a 30 year old shortstop coming off a 2.2 fWAR season. The value of 1 WAR is something like $5.5M. So he's probably worth something like $11M/year. His chances of getting a multi-year contract will only go down from here. -Some big market, competitive teams are going to need shortstop help and it starts with the Dodgers (who will also look at 3B options), the Tigers, and the Cardinals; but there are several other teams that could also use an upgrade. -The shortstop market basically begins and ends with Drew and Peralta (and in the case of the Dodgers there are very few 3B options). There are more spots then players. The market is ripe for an overpay. -The new CBA has really restricted teams' ability to spend in areas outside of free agency (the draft, international free agency). The COULD cause some teams that are cash heavy to allocate more funds to free agency. With these things in mind I think Drew is thinking 4 year/$40 Million or so can be had in this market and he'll decline the QO to try and get it.
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Jul 21, 2013 20:02:54 GMT -5
I just want Drew so far out of here that he is in another continent. I don't want any opportunity for him to stay (no QO) because he will only hamper the development of the left side of the infield. Hell, I prefer a Snyder/Holt platoon to what Drew gives you, Holt will hit you .280 and slug .280 while playing a half decent 3rd base (he is advertised as a below-average to average defender but since he has been here he has made some good plays). All Drew can do is have one hot game where he goes 3 for 4 with 2 doubles and a HR in between fifteen 0 for 4 games with a K a night and 3 walks over that span.
Defensively, he makes 99.9% of the plays he is supposed to make but he doesn't save any runs like Pedroia or Islesias do while making the same amount of plays they should make. I don't understand why they still have him. Trade or DFA him and eat the money for literally anything because he only takes away from the flow that a Holt/Snyder platoon at 3rd could get into. If they played regularly, they might hit a combined line of .250/.300/.330 CONSISTENTLY which is more than Drew is giving you now. Plus, Iglesias helps the defense at the hot corner with his mastery at shortstop allowing the platoon to be more over to the line.
A QO to Drew is stupid because no team is giving up a 1st round pick in order to get what he gives a team. No matter how cheap he comes it's not going to ink a deal because he is no one's everyday shortstop because of injuries and ineffectiveness. The money he is getting paid now has no bearing on the value of him as a player because the Red Sox have an insane amount of money under the luxury tax to spend and an almost infinite amount of money to throw at a player.
Love to hate on Drew on this team this year, I'm sure he's a fine person.
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Jul 21, 2013 20:21:47 GMT -5
A final beef that I have with Drew is that I've seen him go the other way like 3 times this whole season
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Post by bluechip on Jul 21, 2013 21:22:03 GMT -5
With these things in mind I think Drew is thinking 4 year/$40 Million or so can be had in this market and he'll decline the QO to try and get it. I realize Drew had a freak injury, but what GM offers 4 years to a player who has not played in more than 120 games in 3 years?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 21, 2013 21:45:33 GMT -5
If they played regularly, they might hit a combined line of .250/.300/.330 CONSISTENTLY which is more than Drew is giving you now. Plus, Iglesias helps the defense at the hot corner with his mastery at shortstop allowing the platoon to be more over to the line. So wait, you want a WORSE overall line because you think they'll be more "consistent" in delivering it? Man, and I thought the arguments against his brother were dumb...
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 21, 2013 21:50:37 GMT -5
A final beef that I have with Drew is that I've seen him go the other way like 3 times this whole season Hey, how about judging players based on actual data instead of things that no one can accurately gauge from memory?
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 21, 2013 23:23:55 GMT -5
I hope the "offer Salty a QO" crowd here is getting a shocking reminder of why not this Yankee series. 0-9 last 2 games with 6K's, can't throw anyone out, hopeless all around.. Typical Salty in other words and not worth the 4.5m he's currently getting. he goes into slumps(?) that last over a week where he looks totally awful, yet gets all the playing time still.
This guy definitely would look better playing for the opposition anyday.
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Post by bluechip on Jul 22, 2013 0:00:29 GMT -5
I hope the "offer Salty a QO" crowd here is getting a shocking reminder of why not this Yankee series. 0-9 last 2 games with 6K's, can't throw anyone out, hopeless all around.. Typical Salty in other words and not worth the 4.5m he's currently getting. he goes into slumps(?) that last over a week where he looks totally awful, yet gets all the playing time still. This guy definitely would look better playing for the opposition anyday. First off, he had a hit tonight so your numbers are wrong. Second, who bases the a personnel decision off a two game sample in mid-July?
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 22, 2013 5:11:25 GMT -5
I can't wait until there's a non-related baseball player with the last name Drew who we sign just to see how much hate he gets from Red Sox fans.
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Post by raftsox on Jul 22, 2013 8:19:47 GMT -5
I wouldn't offer Salty a QO. The market for catchers is financially suppressed compared to other positions. A QO would make him one of the three highest paid catchers in the league. He's in the third (of four) tier of catchers according to WAR and we all know defensively he's merely passable. A QO would kill any outside market for him and would be a gross over-pay. If the Sox want to re-sign him then a 9-10M AAV should do the trick over 2-4 years, there probably wouldn't be much competition for his services, especiall amongst competetive teams.
A somewhat similar situation applies to Napoli. He's clearly in the second tier of catchers and is paid accordingly. A QO might make sense, but he may not have the opportunity to sign elsewhere if it's offered. I would just let him walk. I think the Sox could find similar or production from a platoon for less money. For example: Gomes and Carp.
Ellsbury is a no-brainer.
Drew is a no-brainer not to.
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Post by jmei on Jul 22, 2013 9:30:47 GMT -5
I think some of you are conflating this question with "do you want this player on the team next year?" which is not the question at all. Important reminder: having a player accept a QO does not mean he has to stick on the roster next year. The Red Sox could easily trade any of these players if it ate $4m of the QO. An average-to-above-average player (which all of these guys are) on a one-year, $10m commitment is easily tradeable, and the Red Sox might even get a non-terrible prospect in return. To me, this is basically gambling for a draft pick, with the wager being some a few million dollars in salary space. And since the Red Sox are unlikely to want or need to spend anywhere close to the luxury tax limit next year, I don't really see that as much of a cost.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Jul 22, 2013 9:39:31 GMT -5
I wouldn't offer Salty a QO. The market for catchers is financially suppressed compared to other positions. A QO would make him one of the three highest paid catchers in the league. He's in the third (of four) tier of catchers according to WAR and we all know defensively he's merely passable. A QO would kill any outside market for him and would be a gross over-pay. If the Sox want to re-sign him then a 9-10M AAV should do the trick over 2-4 years, there probably wouldn't be much competition for his services, especiall amongst competetive teams. [...] Isn't $9-10M per for 3-4 years and maybe even for 2 years a more attractive deal than 1 year at 14 or so? Is the Sox really want him for 2-4 years, and can afford to risk the 1 x 14, why wouldn't they want to "kill the market" for him?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 22, 2013 9:42:29 GMT -5
To me, it's an obvious yes on Ellsbury, and it's a wait-and-see on the other three. The performance of all three players down the stretch is going to go a long way towards determining whether they get a QO. I get why folks might be frustrated, but the fact is that Drew is a top-10 shortstop in baseball and is pretty likely to get a long-term deal this offseason if he stays healthy the rest of the way. There's a reason he took the one-year pillow contract - it's a VERY favorable market for him this offseason, as many have mentioned. As for Salty, he's below average defensively, but he's league-average or so at the plate and could also wrangle a three-year deal at age 28. That said, it's not the best FA market for catchers: www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/potential-free-agents-for-2014/With Napoli, it really all depends on what he does the rest of the season at the plate. He's shown he can handle first base defensively and that he's ok staying there full time. The question is whether he was in a first-half funk or if this is the hitter he is now. Another thing to keep in mind is that these players need to make a decision on the QO before testing the market, more or less. Even if they think there's a chance for a 2/20 or 3/30 deal, they're probably going to turn down the QO, whether or not it materializes. Again, remember, not a single player offered a QO accepted it last year. Yes, the saga of Kyle Lohse may be a bit of a warning for future QO guys, but I wonder how much of that was holding out for a good offer versus having no offers.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 22, 2013 9:44:31 GMT -5
I think some of you are conflating this question with "do you want this player on the team next year?" which is not the question at all. Important reminder: having a player accept a QO does not mean he has to stick on the roster next year. The Red Sox could easily trade any of these players if it ate $4m of the QO. An average-to-above-average player (which all of these guys are) on a one-year, $10m commitment is easily tradeable, and the Red Sox might even get a non-terrible prospect in return. To me, this is basically gambling for a draft pick, with the wager being some a few million dollars in salary space. And since the Red Sox are unlikely to want or need to spend anywhere close to the luxury tax limit next year, I don't really see that as much of a cost. From a baseball operations stand point I completely agree with this. We are not Tampa, we have the extra cash to offer borderline QO guys these deals. Best case is a player we don't want does not accept, and we get another 1st rounder and the bonus pool that goes with it. Worst case is we pay the premium portion of the players contract and have a decent trade chip worth roughly the equivalent of a compensation pick. If the return works out we would save money by getting a player with 3 years of pre-arbitration. (always a big if) The high AAV short value contracts work out better for big market teams. The Sox would rather over pay Salty for one year, than commit to him for 4 years at value. That way when a better deal comes around in 2015 they can easily cut the ties. I really don't know if Drew is worth a QO atm. He has the potential to depending on how he finishes the season. I would say that it seems like the Soxs are trying to maximize his value, by keeping a spot for him and sticking him at SS. I think the best lineup would have Drew at 3rd, even if he doesn't have any experience there, and Iggy at SS.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 22, 2013 9:54:45 GMT -5
I hope the "offer Salty a QO" crowd here is getting a shocking reminder of why not this Yankee series. 0-9 last 2 games with 6K's, can't throw anyone out, hopeless all around.. Typical Salty in other words and not worth the 4.5m he's currently getting. he goes into slumps(?) that last over a week where he looks totally awful, yet gets all the playing time still. This guy definitely would look better playing for the opposition anyday. First off, he had a hit tonight so your numbers are wrong. Second, who bases the a personnel decision off a two game sample in mid-July? Base them off of this latest 6G streak (7G total, 6G played) where he is 2-19,3BB, 8K and he repeats that streak, invariably 2-3x per month.
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Post by bluechip on Jul 22, 2013 10:04:11 GMT -5
Again, remember, not a single player offered a QO accepted it last year. Yes, the saga of Kyle Lohse may be a bit of a warning for future QO guys, but I wonder how much of that was holding out for a good offer versus having no offers. Its also important to note that teams were extremely hesitant to give QOs last off season. Only nine guys were made QOs last year; all were better players than Napoli, Salty, or Drew. Big market teams like the Rangers and the Dodgers did not qualifying offers to Napoli, Dempster, and Victorino. Maybe Texas and LA were kicking themselves at the winter meetings, or maybe they believe that those players were only signed because they did not have draft pick compensation attached. It will be interesting to see if were qualifying offers are made this off season.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2013 10:04:26 GMT -5
I think you have to be careful with that and somewhat more judicious. Even $4M is still a lot of money and you would prefer not to flush it down the toilet. The salary paid to a player even one not on the roster is an investment and no investment should be made with an expected NPV of < 0, no matter your budget.
The factors involved should be.
#1 The marginal value of the expected draft pick (or the value of the player you expect to draft - the expected bonus)
#2 The probability of the player accepting the QO.
#3 The amount of salary you expect to eat if the player does accept.
For instance let's say you the draft pick has a marginal value of $2M, and you think that there is an 80% chance that the player will accept the QO and you will have to trade him and eat say half of the contract $7M.
In this case, your expected cost is $5.6M (or $7M * 80%) and your expected return is only $.4M ($2M * (1-80%)). There is no way that you would offer the player in this case a QO since $5.6>$.4M.
Additionally there is always the risk that the player may get hurt during the off-season and be untradeable.
For these reasons, I don't think you will see large market teams aggressively employ the strategy that you outlined above. In many cases, it's not rational to do so, because the expected profit is less than zero.
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Post by bluechip on Jul 22, 2013 10:08:33 GMT -5
First off, he had a hit tonight so your numbers are wrong. Second, who bases the a personnel decision off a two game sample in mid-July? Base them off of this latest 6G streak (7G total, 6G played) where he is 2-19,3BB, 8K and he repeats that streak, invariably 2-3x per month. Seven games is a tiny sample size. Base them off his entire season where he has a wOBA of .334.
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