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To Whom Should the Red Sox Make a Qualifying Offer?
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 19, 2013 14:24:39 GMT -5
I think some of you are conflating this question with "do you want this player on the team next year?" which is not the question at all. I agree with this comment. The value of a QO is determined annually by averaging the top 125 player salaries from the previous year. A QO was worth $13.3mm last offseason. Teams have until five days after the end of the World Series to make QOs. Players have seven days to accept. Once a team makes a QO, the player can either accept the one-year deal or decline it and become an unrestricted free agent. If he declines the offer and signs elsewhere, his new team will have to forfeit their first round pick (after pick #10). The player’s former team will receive a compensatory selection at the end of the first round.
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Post by bluechip on Jul 19, 2013 14:33:45 GMT -5
I think some of you are conflating this question with "do you want this player on the team next year?" which is not the question at all. I agree with this comment. The value of a QO is determined annually by averaging the top 125 player salaries from the previous year. A QO was worth $13.3mm last offseason. Teams have until five days after the end of the World Series to make QOs. Players have seven days to accept. Once a team makes a QO, the player can either accept the one-year deal or decline it and become an unrestricted free agent. If he declines the offer and signs elsewhere, his new team will have to forfeit their first round pick (after pick #10). The player’s former team will receive a compensatory selection at the end of the first round. It's really a two part question: A) will this player accept, if offered a QO? B) if he accepts will he be worth the contract? With Jacoby the answer to part A is a definite "no". With Drew, Salty, and Napoli the answer to part A is probably "yes." If Napoli or Drew accept, I cannot see them being worth the contract. Salty is probably worth the value of QO if he accepts.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 19, 2013 14:56:55 GMT -5
My opinion only:
Ellsbury - A (no)
Napoli - A (doubtful), B (if accepted, yes)
Drew - A (unclear), B (if accepted, no)
Saltalamacchia (doubtful), B (if accepted, probably not)
There are also two other considerations for each:
1. The draft pick, especially in a strong draft (and the resulting draft dollars assigned to the pick)
2. The roster spot (as long as the Red Sox are under the luxury tax threshold, the money should be less relevant than the roster spot)
For Drew, most of you are focused on 2. He could accept the QO and then be traded (although I have not checked the exact rules on timing).
I also note that none of the nine players offered a QO accepted it last year. (I doubt that will happen again BTW.)
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 19, 2013 15:46:46 GMT -5
The only one worth the QO is Ells. That is a definite. Napoli is getting 5million . Drew 9 and Salty 3 million.
I figured we could use Drew in a deadline deal but now I dont know what is his deal. Bailey is done for the year. Salty that's too much money to offer a QO. I believe he would jump on that. I soured on Napoli and he is a paisan. They should of talked to Salty about an extension maybe during the ASG.
They have to figure out 1b situation either convert someone or trade from inventory or find another free agent that is unattached. The SS is allset. The CF I am happy with either Victorino or JBJ. Catching could get a little tricky. They probably need help for one more year hopefully Ross is signed and he'll help.
Do you guys know Salty is only getting about 3 million I think. I don't feel comfortable offering him 13million QO. Even though he is one of the best offensive catchers in the league right now and lasy year also. They should of tied him up. At worst he is a backup to someone.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jul 19, 2013 16:10:31 GMT -5
It's really a two part question: A) will this player accept, if offered a QO? B) if he accepts will he be worth the contract? With Jacoby the answer to part A is a definite "no". With Drew, Salty, and Napoli the answer to part A is probably "yes." If Napoli or Drew accept, I cannot see them being worth the contract. Salty is probably worth the value of QO if he accepts. My opinion here Ellsbury - If he accepts (Not going to happen) then good if he doesn't you get a pick. Works out just fine there. Napoli - This one is tricky. I think right now he's likely to accept but with a strong finish there is more likely hood he declines, has proven his hip is not an issue and would likely shop for a multi-year deal. I wouldn't mind him staying on a 1 year deal so I would offer him a QO. Drew - I wouldn't offer him. Salty - The catching market is weak so I think he could go out there and shop for a multi-year offer at a lower per year salary than a QO but with more long term security. I'm completely fine with him staying, specially for a 1 year deal. Obviously each case is different but some players seem to value longer term security over higher annual salaries so that may come into play here. Conceding Ellsbury is a lock to receive one and decline it I just don't see the harm of 1 year deals for Napoli and Salty so I take that gamble.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 19, 2013 17:46:11 GMT -5
Salty and Els.
I'm too afraid Drew and Napoli would accept.
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Post by jmei on Jul 19, 2013 17:56:30 GMT -5
Don't forget that you can trade a player who accepts the QO. If either Napoli or Drew accept a QO, they're both very tradable (assuming they maintain or exceed their YTD performances), especially if the Red Sox are willing to eat some cash.
Also note that very few decent catchers reach the free agent market and those that do don't usually get paid very much. Russell Martin only got two years, $17m last year despite coming off a comparable season and not having a draft pick attached (and only being one year older). I have a hard time seeing Saltalamacchia getting more than three or four years or an AAV much higher than $10m.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 19, 2013 20:56:51 GMT -5
Ells as of now is the only one who would be a safe bet for a qualifying offer. Napoli, the team could use next year at 1b, but if a Carp/Nava platoon of some sorts would work out, then the team wouldn't have to worry so much about spending that much at the position should Napoli accept. Drew isn't worth the gamble should Boras accept and take another of his pillow contract 1Y terms again, since he wasn't going to be worth it had he provided his normal numbers on the 1y contract he signed for in 2012 and at around 13m in 2014? It would be even worse and there is no way to trade that without a major subsidy on Boston's part. Not to mention the team has several people in Iglesias, Bogaerts who will be playing his position.. he just goes away.
Salty is another there there is no real justification for offering an offer to. Regardless of the numbers, they won't be worth half of what he delivers offensively and his defense will still be horrid. Taking a chance on a draft pick with him is riskier than with Napoli.
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Post by bluechip on Jul 19, 2013 22:51:58 GMT -5
Don't forget that you can trade a player who accepts the QO. If either Napoli or Drew accept a QO, they're both very tradable (assuming they maintain or exceed their YTD performances), especially if the Red Sox are willing to eat some cash. Last year teams were extremely hesitant to offer a QO to anyone they feared who was not worth 13 million dollars and would be expected to accept. I am not sure i would eat 4 or 5 million dollars to get a mediocre prospect. No one besides the Red Sox really wanted Drew or Napoli after 2012. Are teams going to be that desperate to get them after 2013?
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Post by jclmontana on Jul 19, 2013 23:18:08 GMT -5
Napoli is the player I wonder about. As James Dunne pointed out, Napoli is basically league average at 1st. Do the sox really need to spend 13 million-plus for average production? (and many, many strike-outs) Plus, Napoli's league average-ness is propped up by a spectacular start of the season that, at this point, seems a million months ago.
The second half will tell, but Napoli seems like a long-shot to be worth the money/risk of offering a QO.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 20, 2013 6:03:12 GMT -5
What is it with all the Drew haters here? Yes, he is clogging up the Red Sox system and we don't really want him here because we all want to see Iggy, Xander, Cecchini and so on. But I am absolutely convinced there are other teams in the league which would LOVE to have Drew on a QO-type deal, and it only takes two of those to start a bidding war. Ellsbury and Drew are both no-brainers to me.
Salty I would give a QO, but I would actually prefer to have him back on a moderately-priced 3 year deal. Enough discussion of that going on in the other thread, though.
Napoli, at this point, I don't think so. He is showing a strong downward trend and I just can't imagine that the Sox would not be able to find a better option for next year. If he has a strong finish to the season I might see him getting a QO offer though, because in that case he would at least be tradeable.
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Post by terriblehondo on Jul 20, 2013 7:01:07 GMT -5
Ellsbury Yes. I would like to see him signed to a contract but I doubt that will happen. Nap I am in wait and see mode right now I say No. if he gets hot again like the start of the season that might change my mind. Drew No Salty No
At this time I do not think that any teams will be willing to give up a 1st round draft pick for Nap, Drew or Salty.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jul 20, 2013 7:01:57 GMT -5
I can't believe the responses here. No way any of these guys beyond Elsbury get a QO.
1) We probably don't want Drew back with Bogaerts and Iglesias in the mix and he would sign a $14 mil one year deal in a heartbeat ( our minimum QO amount probably ). Better Solution: Iglesias even if he doesn't hit beyond .240 with Bogaerts at 3rd or as our SS backup.
2) Salty stinks defensively and will clearly regress offensively. I recognize that catchers are in extreme demand but I don't think we are going to make him anywhere near a QO. We might offer to sign him but not at that amount / year. Better solution: Lavarnway/Ross or another solution like McCann...etc. Exhibit A: Salty even attempting to throw out Gardner at 3rd yesterday.
3) Napoli is not healthy and didn't warrant more than $5 mil guaranteed this year and we are even considering him at $14 mil next year? Better solution: Carp/Nava/Kendry Morales
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 20, 2013 7:33:15 GMT -5
Drew got 10m after a 0 WAR season in which he missed half the year after a brutal injury. He's going to play ~110 games this year with above average offense and defense at SS. Take a look at the other FA SS next offseason. Now, try not to vomit. I agree that we probably don't need him anyway, but at 1/14 or whatever he's a nice trade chip (which also gets you around the draft pick compensation issue).
Pretty much ditto for Napoli, and the hip might scare some teams, but so far he's been completely healthy.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 20, 2013 8:12:06 GMT -5
Drew got 10m after a 0 WAR season in which he missed half the year after a brutal injury. He's going to play ~110 games this year with above average offense and defense at SS. Take a look at the other FA SS next offseason. Now, try not to vomit. I agree that we probably don't need him anyway, but at 1/14 or whatever he's a nice trade chip (which also gets you around the draft pick compensation issue). Pretty much ditto for Napoli, and the hip might scare some teams, but so far he's been completely healthy. Just a little case in point for Drew @14m for 2014 season. He'd be one of the highest paid SS in the game. NY isn't going to pay Jeter that outlandish 17m he made this year and jeter probably will nix his 8m player option, still he won't get anywhere near 14m. Jimmy Rollins, better on both sides of the field is far better than Drew ever was and the most he's ever made is 11m a season. Drew at 14m and easy to trade? Sorry, but still don't think so.
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Post by jdb on Jul 20, 2013 8:24:11 GMT -5
Lets not forget Cherrington was over paying 2-4 million per year to get Victorino and Napoli here on shorter deals. I don't think he'd mind offering a 1 year deal at $14 million to Salty if he's worth 3/30 or so on the market. That's assuming he keeps this pace up.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 20, 2013 8:36:45 GMT -5
Lets not forget Cherrington was over paying 2-4 million per year to get Victorino and Napoli here on shorter deals. I don't think he'd mind offering a 1 year deal at $14 million to Salty if he's worth 3/30 or so on the market. That's assuming he keeps this pace up. Teams were reluctant to give up picks this year, they will be even more reluctant next. Salty will jump at the QO or he may end up like Lohse this past year. Honestly, he may be better then most of what's available but that doesn't mean a team will give up a first rd pck. It will ruin Saltys value on the market. Unless, his agent is blind with greed he'll see this and take the one year deal that basically doubles his career earnings. Remember he's still only 28... Can get a ton of money in one year and then try the market again and still get paid.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2013 8:48:38 GMT -5
Drew got 10m after a 0 WAR season in which he missed half the year after a brutal injury. He's going to play ~110 games this year with above average offense and defense at SS. Take a look at the other FA SS next offseason. Now, try not to vomit. I agree that we probably don't need him anyway, but at 1/14 or whatever he's a nice trade chip (which also gets you around the draft pick compensation issue). Pretty much ditto for Napoli, and the hip might scare some teams, but so far he's been completely healthy. No team is going to trade to take Drew's $14 million contract (assuming he'd accept the offer - he'd be crazy not to) off the Sox hands. The guys has been so-so this year (yes, we know the bar is set low for SS), but he's also missed a chunk of time with injuries and hasn't played consistently healthy in quite awhile.
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 20, 2013 9:03:30 GMT -5
So, how did he get 10m this year? I think you guys are vastly overrating what 14m is worth in the free agent market, particularly on a one year deal.
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 20, 2013 9:18:47 GMT -5
Jimmy Rollins, better on both sides of the field is far better than Drew ever was and the most he's ever made is 11m a season. Career wRC+ Rollins: 96 Drew: 94 Rollins is probably better defensively, though Drew's UZR over the last 4-5 years is pretty much equal. So, no, your statement is completely false. Rollins has a much better career, yes, that's a different question. And Rollins signed a 3 year deal. I am not suggesting Drew could get 14m for 3 years. That's silly, he couldn't get 3 years period. Anyway, I've made my opinion known. You tell me, let's say Drew plays the rest of this year and his numbers pretty much are what they are right now. Give me a number, or do you think he's like out of baseball at 31?
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2013 11:02:56 GMT -5
So, how did he get 10m this year? I think you guys are vastly overrating what 14m is worth in the free agent market, particularly on a one year deal. He got $10 million because the Red Sox dumped a boatload of money last year and instead of rebuilding like most teams dumping salary, they decided to reload. Doubt they would have signed Drew if he cost $14 million. $10 million isn't $14 million, and as it was the Red Sox blew their competition out of the water giving him $10 million, and I doubt any team would be crazy enough to pay Drew $14 million for a year. It's not like his value shot up an additional $4 million based on the season he's having or the amount of time he's actually spent on the field.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 20, 2013 11:56:42 GMT -5
1. The Sox should make a qualifying offer to Ellsbury, and it should be a strong offer, one that he, and Boros, will think hard about before they rejected it. The Sox should want him back and should try to get him.
2. Let Napoli go without an offer. He isn't going to get better. If he is realistic about his chances of getting a better offer elsewhere, he probably would accept the offer. He might well be dead weight next season. He is now, at times. It would be very difficult to trade him for any value.
3. Let Drew go without an offer. He also might be realistic about his chances elsewhere and accept the offer. He is not good enough to be a shortstop on a championship level team. And he would be hard to trade for value.
4. Make a good offer to Salty with the intent to keep him. He is the best the Sox have now. If the opportunity came to make a really significant upgrade at catcher, he, unlike Napoli or Drew, could be traded easily.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jul 20, 2013 12:09:13 GMT -5
So, how did he get 10m this year? I think you guys are vastly overrating what 14m is worth in the free agent market, particularly on a one year deal. If we had to give up a 1st round pick last year he wouldn't even have gotten $10 mil. Completely different situation.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 20, 2013 12:25:52 GMT -5
Jimmy Rollins, better on both sides of the field is far better than Drew ever was and the most he's ever made is 11m a season. Career wRC+ Rollins: 96 Drew: 94 Rollins is probably better defensively, though Drew's UZR over the last 4-5 years is pretty much equal. So, no, your statement is completely false. Rollins has a much better career, yes, that's a different question. And Rollins signed a 3 year deal. I am not suggesting Drew could get 14m for 3 years. That's silly, he couldn't get 3 years period. Anyway, I've made my opinion known. You tell me, let's say Drew plays the rest of this year and his numbers pretty much are what they are right now. Give me a number, or do you think he's like out of baseball at 31? If you QO Drew, you're either getting a draft pick, or a slightly above average shortstop on a one year deal. I will gladly accept either of those things. If the team decides they want to go with whatever combo of Iggy/Xander/WMB/whoever on the left side instead, and they flip him for a reliever or a C+ prospect, that's fine too. The whole idea that Drew is this albatross if he accepts... I don't get it. Maybe people are just stuck in the Nomar/Jeter/A-Rod mindset, but there's more than a few contending teams this year who'd absolutely love a .700 OPS shortstop with a decent glove.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 20, 2013 12:50:09 GMT -5
So, how did he get 10m this year? I think you guys are vastly overrating what 14m is worth in the free agent market, particularly on a one year deal. If we had to give up a 1st round pick last year he wouldn't even have gotten $10 mil. Completely different situation. After all, last year, noone knew how well Drew would come back from his injury. So I agree with you: completely different situation. And if noone gives up a first rounder for him, that doesn't mean he can't be subsequently traded for a prospect worth somewhat less than a first rounder (e.g. a high ceiling, high risk type).
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