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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 28, 2013 20:38:15 GMT -5
Although Dempster still has another year on his contract... I'm wondering what his future will be with this club.
With all these pitching prospects the Sox are trying to bring up, I'm wondering how that will be accomplished with Clay, Lackey, Doubront, Lester and Dempster all pretty much penciled in for next years rotation. Dempster seems like the odd man out given his performance and contract.
RDLR, Workman and Webster are all knocking on the door. Any thoughts on what happens?
I know this is pure speculation and a lot could happen between now and then. I just feel like it doesn't make sense to start Dempster just because of his salary when we could get better production from cheaper players. A trade in the offseason could make sense. I know Lester has struggled but he is still a much safer bet.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 28, 2013 20:46:32 GMT -5
Honestly baring any major trades or off season injuries I think next years rotation is the same as this years. The only difference is I'd assume guys like Workman/Webster and Rubby should be more capable of filling in.
I wouldn't be surprised if one of those guys is permanently in the rotation by years end but so much can happen between now and then.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 28, 2013 20:47:37 GMT -5
Really premature. Right now the 5 starters (with Buch) are under contract for next year. Workman has been good so far, but is considered a mid to back end starter or reliever. I don't trade Dempster counting on Workman. RDLR and Webster may have potential, but both have struggled with control most of the year and RDLR is thought of as a closer or setup guy by many (most?). So, neither of these guys should inspire you to trade Dempster to open up a spot. Make them earn it. Start in the pen and work your way to the rotation. You can never have too much pitching. These prospects provide good depth, but if you go trading away Dempster, now you've lost much of that depth. Dempster may not be a shiny new pitching prospect, but he's a solid #5 on this team.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 28, 2013 20:51:26 GMT -5
The reason I ask is because Dempster has done pretty badly since about Mid-May. I'd also like to see some of these young guys play in Boston. Hypothetically, what if Workman continues to outpitch Dempster down the stretch?
Also, from what I've seen, starting someone out in the pen and then trying to stretch them out can really screw them up or mess with their stamina and mind set. Its not really difficult at all to find a #5 starter either.
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Jul 28, 2013 20:53:20 GMT -5
My guess is that Lackey gets traded at the end of this year. He will have 2 years and a total of 16 million left (15 in 1st year, minimum in last) which is not that bad especially if he has an ERA this low. I think that it will be Buchholtz, Lester, Doubront, Dempster, Webster and De La Rosa in the rotation when Buchholtz is hurt and if he is lights-out then you probably move Dempster. Workman and Britton I think will be used exclusively in the bullpen and Ranaudo does what Webster/Aceves did this year spot starts and if he is lights out than he will probably be moved because there is really no place for him unless one of the starters completely falls off of a cliff in production. I think that most of it will work itself out in spring training. If Webster throws a completley perfect spring training than odds are that he will win a spot in the rotation but the opposite will happen if he gets hit to death.
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Post by rider on Jul 28, 2013 21:05:59 GMT -5
Or we can go into the season with them all and let things just work themselves out. Injuries, underperformance, and breakouts are all bound to happen
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Jul 28, 2013 21:10:54 GMT -5
But we might actually get a good B-level prospect for Lackey if he has a 4.00 ERA for the 2nd half, putting him at 3.70 for the season or somewhere around there.
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Post by bluechip on Jul 28, 2013 21:14:05 GMT -5
Why do you want to trade a very good pitcher on a contending team?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 28, 2013 21:19:36 GMT -5
But we might actually get a good B-level prospect for Lackey if he has a 4.00 ERA for the 2nd half, putting him at 3.70 for the season or somewhere around there. So a large market team should trade one of its top pitchers for a B-level prospect? Sorry - but this is absurd. If by years end there are CLEARLY 5 starting pitchers in Boston who are better than Dempster (I don't count on this happening) then the Red Sox may be open to trading him - but they would have to swallow half of his contract. Most likely he is penciled is as the 3, 4, 5 starter next year and if he loses the role at some point then he becomes a quality RP. If the Red Sox drop out of the playoff race for 2014 before July 31st then he becomes a valuable trade chip. Otherwise they are likely to stand pat. Remember, if you go into the season with 7.5 starters, then you likely only have 5 starters by the end of April. (Don't forget the Wily Mo deal!)
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 28, 2013 21:22:46 GMT -5
But we might actually get a good B-level prospect for Lackey if he has a 4.00 ERA for the 2nd half, putting him at 3.70 for the season or somewhere around there. So a large market team should trade one of its top pitchers for a B-level prospect? Sorry - but this is absurd. If by years end there are CLEARLY 5 starting pitchers in Boston who are better than Dempster (I don't count on this happening) then the Red Sox may be open to trading him - but they would have to swallow half of his contract. Most likely he is penciled is as the 3, 4, 5 starter next year and if he loses the role at some point then he becomes a quality RP. If the Red Sox drop out of the playoff race for 2014 before July 31st then he becomes a valuable trade chip. Otherwise they are likely to stand pat. Remember, if you go into the season with 7.5 starters, then you likely only have 5 starters by the end of April. (Don't forget the Wily Mo deal!) Thanks for the answer. Thats a good point. Dempster used to be a RP and could always become one again.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 28, 2013 21:29:25 GMT -5
Do we not remember after Webster's first couple of starts when he wasn't going to come out of the rotation ever again?
Next year's pitching staff is pretty much set. The question is going to be whether, for example, they'll let guys like RDLR, Workman, and Britton compete for MLB bullpen jobs if all of the starters are healthy, since guys like Webster and Ranaudo will be in Pawtucket for the I-95 shuttle if needed.
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Jul 28, 2013 21:51:41 GMT -5
But we might actually get a good B-level prospect for Lackey if he has a 4.00 ERA for the 2nd half, putting him at 3.70 for the season or somewhere around there. So a large market team should trade one of its top pitchers for a B-level prospect? Sorry - but this is absurd. If by years end there are CLEARLY 5 starting pitchers in Boston who are better than Dempster (I don't count on this happening) then the Red Sox may be open to trading him - but they would have to swallow half of his contract. Most likely he is penciled is as the 3, 4, 5 starter next year and if he loses the role at some point then he becomes a quality RP. If the Red Sox drop out of the playoff race for 2014 before July 31st then he becomes a valuable trade chip. Otherwise they are likely to stand pat. Remember, if you go into the season with 7.5 starters, then you likely only have 5 starters by the end of April. (Don't forget the Wily Mo deal!) Without Lackey there will be plenty of starters who have MLB experience next season and I'm sorry for thinking that Lackey won't have a 3.19 ERA season and will experience a drop-off in the 2nd half and another after this season. At the END OF THE SEASON, he should be sold high because I think that this is probably his last season of any value to a team. He should be here for the remainder of the season because he has been pitching his balls off and he gives the team a damn good chance to win in every start this season. In spring training, we will have Buchholtz, Lester, Doubront, and Dempster with MLB experience and a multi-man competition (Ranaudo, RDLR, Webster and even Workman and Britton) for our #5 guy which is basically what we are doing now with Aceves, Webster, and now Workman. The Flaw with this is that I'm counting on Buchholtz's health for most of the season (like 25 starts) and that one of these guys turns out to be a #5 starter at least which I don't think is absurd.
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Post by bluechip on Jul 28, 2013 21:55:06 GMT -5
So a large market team should trade one of its top pitchers for a B-level prospect? Sorry - but this is absurd. If by years end there are CLEARLY 5 starting pitchers in Boston who are better than Dempster (I don't count on this happening) then the Red Sox may be open to trading him - but they would have to swallow half of his contract. Most likely he is penciled is as the 3, 4, 5 starter next year and if he loses the role at some point then he becomes a quality RP. If the Red Sox drop out of the playoff race for 2014 before July 31st then he becomes a valuable trade chip. Otherwise they are likely to stand pat. Remember, if you go into the season with 7.5 starters, then you likely only have 5 starters by the end of April. (Don't forget the Wily Mo deal!) Without Lackey there will be plenty of starters who have MLB experience next season and I'm sorry for thinking that Lackey won't have a 3.19 ERA season and will experience a drop-off in the 2nd half and another after this season. At the END OF THE SEASON, he should be sold high because I think that this is probably his last season of any value to a team. He should be here for the remainder of the season because he has been pitching his balls off and he gives the team a damn good chance to win in every start this season. In spring training, we will have Buchholtz, Lester, Doubront, and Dempster with MLB experience and a multi-man competition (Ranaudo, RDLR, Webster and even Workman and Britton) for our #5 guy which is basically what we are doing now with Aceves, Webster, and now Workman. The Flaw with this is that I'm counting on Buchholtz's health for most of the season and that one of these guys turns out to be a #5 starter at least. So you want to Red Sox to bet that Lackey will not be a number 2/3 stater in 2014, but you want some other team to bet that Lackey will be a number 3 starter?
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Jul 28, 2013 21:59:35 GMT -5
Yes I do. Another team might bite on him if they need to. He will be 35 going into next season and I personally think that he is going to fall off of a cliff but it's not uncommon for some GM to have a different opinion than the rest.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 28, 2013 22:05:24 GMT -5
Why would he fall off a cliff? And who would you replace him with? He's been so solid and a key to this rotation with Buch hurt and Lester lost (yes, he might have been found).
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Jul 28, 2013 22:14:18 GMT -5
There are only 2 35+ year olds in the top 30 in ERA Kuroda and Dempster. Kuroda is the only 35+ year old with a sub-4.20 ERA I already said Webster, RDLR, Ranaudo, Workman, Britton, and maybe even Barnes if he kills it in the 2nd half into spring training
EDIT: 35+ AL Pitchers
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Jul 28, 2013 22:18:30 GMT -5
Minus the dirty bird Colon
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 28, 2013 22:32:14 GMT -5
So what has Webster done to make you think he will outperform Lackey next year? RDLR? Britton? Barnes has just started to have a few good starts in AA. He's at least a year away. Workman is the only one I think you could reasonably make a case for - based on 2 good starts in the bigs. I'll take my chances with Lackey, thank you. Workman can be the long man 6th starter. All the other guys are depth, if they can get their act together.
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Post by bluechip on Jul 28, 2013 22:39:36 GMT -5
Of the nine 35 or older pitchers who qualify for the ERA title, five have ERAs below 4: Hudson, Burnett, Arroyo, Kuroda, and Colon.
Let's look at pitchers in 2012 who were 34 or older and pitcher 150 innings. The five pitchers I mentioned above all had ERAs under four last year too. Here are the guys who had ERAs under 4 last year and how they are doing this year:
* Jake Westbrook had an era under 4, and does so again this year (though in 88 ip, so he does not qualify for the ERA title). He has been just as good as 2012. * Harang has an ERA of 4.89, but does not qualify for the ERA title with 95 IP. His peripheral stats indicate the ERA should be a little better this year and should have been worse last year, but there is a clear drop off. He moved from the NL to the AL. * RA Dickey, a knuckle baller in the AL East instead of the NL has had a large drop off. * Vogelsong has been hurt and terrible. * Ryan Dempster, who struggled in 2012 after coming to the AL, but has been an OK backend of the rotation starter for the Red Sox.
So really, there is not a lot of evidence that John Lackey is going to turn into a pumpkin when he turns 35. Six of the ten guys from 2012, have been successful in 2013. Three of the four who had ERAs rise above four moved from the NL to the AL. The other has been hurt.
EDIT: I am not saying that age does not take its toll on pitchers. It obviously does. I just do not think that there is evidence that pitchers suddenly fall off a clip when they turn 35.
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Post by jmei on Jul 28, 2013 22:46:30 GMT -5
There are only 2 35+ year olds in the top 30 in ERA Kuroda and Dempster. Kuroda is the only 35+ year old with a sub-4.20 ERA Cliff Lee turns 35 later this year. A.J. Burnett is 36 and has a 2.96 ERA/3.14 FIP in 112.2 IP. Tim Hudson was having a solid season (3.97 ERA, 3.45 FIP) at age 38. More directly on point: you can never have enough pitching depth. Remember when the Dodgers were supposed to have 8 starters for 5 rotation spots this spring? None of the depth options on the roster are out of options next year and many can easily be converted to the bullpen or optioned to AAA if a rotation spot doesn't open up. If one of Boston's starters is tearing it up and deserves a rotation spot, Dempster can be converted to the bullpen or Boston can eat some money and trade him mid-season.
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Jul 28, 2013 22:50:35 GMT -5
Webster hasn't done anything as of yet to prove to me that he deserves to be in the rotation this year but his stuff is undeniable and if, like me, you think that Lackey will experience a drop-off in production and end up in the 3.95 to 4.15 range in terms of ERA next year, than it doesn't seem too far-fetched that at least one of those guys can give you an ERA (4.20?) that you can live with as your #5 guy at a cheaper cost so you might be able to add a pillow contract in free agency and a prospect in the process. None of the guys I mentioned would be given a spot, they would have to earn it. If, somehow, none of Webster, RDLR, Ranaudo(who I think would win the job due to his polish), Workman, or admitted long shot Barnes (who I don't force into the competition if he doesn't look ready, but if it turns out that he looks ready than I give him a shot) can give you a 4.20 ERA, than I will be very, very surprised.
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Jul 28, 2013 22:53:17 GMT -5
Two 35+ AL Pitchers Sorry
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Post by jmei on Jul 28, 2013 22:57:38 GMT -5
If, somehow, none of Webster, RDLR, Ranaudo(who I think would win the job due to his polish), Workman, or admitted long shot Barnes (who I don't force into the competition if he doesn't look ready, but if it turns out that he looks ready than I give him a shot) can give you a 4.20 ERA, than I will be very, very surprised. Will any be able to do so in 2014? Even if one of them can, he will almost certainly have the opportunity to do so anyways, considering Buchholz's injury history, Lackey/Dempster's age, and the general riskiness involved with pitcher health.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 28, 2013 23:06:05 GMT -5
Why do they even need to get a guy in there at a lower cost? You even said how reasonable his contract was. Go with the proven guy. But all these guys you mentioned have HUGE question marks. All Lackey has against him is age and your doubts.
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Jul 28, 2013 23:12:32 GMT -5
I think that Lackey's value will never be higher than after this season and if what I predict comes true, than he may be harder to move midseason if one of the mentioned prospects makes a Will Middlebrooks-type impact and space is needed in the Rotation than he would be now and a trade would be more of a dump of a player rather than a trade that would make the recipient team better and therefore a good prospect could be fetched in return if sold at the end of the season. He is not part of the long-term plan so why not make your team better in the future at little cost in the present?
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