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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 16, 2013 20:49:35 GMT -5
Dempster isn't going anywhere, except to some NL team that misses out on a FA pitcher and even then it's going to subsidized by Boston at LEAST 50% and maybe more. To me? It's worth it to get him out of the way and open up a slot right away for Workman early on and later for either Webster/Ranaudo. The Sox have got to see if any of those are going to do the job for when Peavy is gone after 2014 and getting rid of Dempster moves one of the blockers who is not effective as a beginning point.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 17, 2013 9:17:13 GMT -5
I think Demp is tradable without Sox eating money. If they ate more then a mil or 2 then it may not be worth even dealing him. To open a spot for Workman isn't necessary. Depth is really important and will be needed. With Clay in the rotation you need 6 starters as a gaurentee and then everyone else. Peavy usually needs someone too. Two reasons you don't trade Lackey.
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Post by elguapo on Nov 17, 2013 9:22:57 GMT -5
I can literally name a dozen free agent veteran starting pitchers who will come cheaper than Ryan Dempster and can at least approximate his performance. Here's a fine start, for instance. You don't relieve believe this, do you? Dempster has an excellent track record and just because he had one subpar year that doesn't make him chopped liver. If you really believe there are a dozen cheaper comparable pitchers available this winter, let's see some specifics.
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Post by larrycook on Nov 17, 2013 9:28:24 GMT -5
I think the Sox need to sign another starter, like a Scott Kazmir. His second half numbers were impressive and he is left handed.
Next, we need an 8th inning RHP for the bullpen. I'm not sure what kind of shape Crain's shoulder is, but I think he has more going on there than just what has been reported.
We get those two pieces, then we can include Peavy and Dempster in a package for whatever positions Cherrington needs to bolster.
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Nov 17, 2013 9:54:09 GMT -5
Looking back to last season's free agent signings, the best comparison I could find to Dempster was Brett Myers for 1yr / $7m. Obviously not a perfect comparison (Myers is several years younger, Dempster is more recently durable as a starter, etc). that said, if you factor in things such as clubhouse presence, the "winner" premium that does seem to exist in the game, and of course the changes that the influx of tv money will have on FA contracts, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that an NL team in need of consistent innings would pay $10m of the salary and give up a decent prospect for Dempster.
If that is the case, I would absolutely trade Dempster. If you aren't getting at least $10m in salary relief, I would keep him as the 6th starter / long man, with the understanding that you're almost certainly going to need him to start 15games from missed starts of Buchholz and Peavy, and a name that can come out of the pen. Though my preference would be to get that $10m in cap room, and give those "15 starts" to the best option of Workman, Ranaudo, Webster or Barnes at the time
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Post by p23w on Nov 17, 2013 11:59:24 GMT -5
I can literally name a dozen free agent veteran starting pitchers who will come cheaper than Ryan Dempster and can at least approximate his performance. Here's a fine start, for instance. Unless you think "playoff experience" is worth a $10m a year boost (and many of those guys do have extensive playoff experience), any of them would make for cheaper alternatives for bulk innings. YOU seem to be all about the money. MY proposal was a NEEDS fit not a money fit. I do think playoff (especially WS experience) counts when it comes to mentoring young impressionable minds. I think this was FUNDAMENTAL to the success of the 2013 RS. Again you contrast this experience with money. Let's just us understand that what you keep harping at is not OUR money. It's OPM. What value they place in exchange for THEIR money is not YOURS (or mine) to judge. I seriously doubt you can find another dozen available pitchers who have a similar resume and needs fit that Dempster has for the Marlins. I would also refer to the fact that a move of this nature could be part of a bigger deal. We know the Marlins want to upgrade at 3B and we know the RS are most probably in the market for an Ofer (pending the outcome of the Ellsbury soap opera). Both of these market based issues can impact the perception of value of the people who control the purse strings. I wouldn't BEGIN to presume to know how those decisions come about. I can only look at the rosters and project a needs match. The money (each sides perceived value) side gets worked out after the needs decision has been arrived/agreed to.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 17, 2013 12:15:18 GMT -5
Looking back to last season's free agent signings, the best comparison I could find to Dempster was Brett Myers for 1yr / $7m. Obviously not a perfect comparison (Myers is several years younger, Dempster is more recently durable as a starter, etc). that said, if you factor in things such as clubhouse presence, the "winner" premium that does seem to exist in the game, and of course the changes that the influx of tv money will have on FA contracts, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that an NL team in need of consistent innings would pay $10m of the salary and give up a decent prospect for Dempster. If that is the case, I would absolutely trade Dempster. If you aren't getting at least $10m in salary relief, I would keep him as the 6th starter / long man, with the understanding that you're almost certainly going to need him to start 15games from missed starts of Buchholz and Peavy, and a name that can come out of the pen. Though my preference would be to get that $10m in cap room, and give those "15 starts" to the best option of Workman, Ranaudo, Webster or Barnes at the timeThis. Even if it is a relief of 8 mil of Dempster's salary that is a fair chunk of change to put towards another need, i.e. a relief arm, Tanaka, an OF/C/1B bat. The injury concerns won't go away but I'm definitely comfortable with running Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, Peavy and Doubront out there with Workman as the 6th man. I also feel comfortable with Webster and Ranaudo as fill ins when needed. Just this past season the team ran Workman and Webster out for 10 starts (although not spectacular). To me the team has ample depth at the SP position but currently could use depth in other areas. If this plan fails due to multiple starting pitchers being injured for an extended period of time the team does also have the prospect depth to plug the hole. Trading Dempster wouldn't even need to result in bringing back much in return. Maybe it gets the team a relief option from a team with depth at that position. Maybe its a C level prospect (dependent on the portion of the contract eaten). I'd be extremely happy with a competitive balance round B pick at the end of the 2nd from a team like SD or Pittsburgh. To me Dempster would be a great fit at the back of an NL West roster such as SD, San Fran or the LA Dodgers.
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Post by jdb on Nov 17, 2013 12:20:22 GMT -5
With the Twins desperate for starters I could easily see us dumping Dempsters salary on them if needed. They are talking to several FAs that would cost Dempster money but each would probably go somewhere else to a contender if the money is comparable.
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Post by jmei on Nov 17, 2013 12:42:55 GMT -5
I can literally name a dozen free agent veteran starting pitchers who will come cheaper than Ryan Dempster and can at least approximate his performance. Here's a fine start, for instance. You don't relieve believe this, do you? Dempster has an excellent track record and just because he had one subpar year that doesn't make him chopped liver. If you really believe there are a dozen cheaper comparable pitchers available this winter, let's see some specifics. Two things: (1) He was talking about the Marlins, who just don't have the talent to realistically compete for a playoff spot next year. As such, they are far more concerned about cost than quality, and if they just needed a guy to give them 180+ cheap innings, there are a bunch of names that will do so just fine while coming cheaper than Dempster. (2) Here are twenty free agent pitchers who Steamer projects to be at least pretty much as good as Dempster in 2014 (3.80 FIP) and will probably come a lot cheaper: Bartolo Colon (3.57 FIP) Scott Kazmir (3.29 FIP) Josh Johnson (3.50 FIP) Roberto Hernandez (3.50 FIP) Gavin Floyd (3.59 FIP) Dan Haren (3.61 FIP) Jake Westbrook (3.72 FIP) Jeff Francis (3.79 FIP) Paul Maholm (3.81 FIP) Roy Oswalt (3.86 FIP) Roy Halladay (3.83 FIP) Chris Capuano (3.87 FIP) Jason Hammel (3.90 FIP) Edison Volquez (4.01 FIP) Scott Feldman (4.09 FIP) Mike Pelfrey (4.08 FIP) Erik Bedard (4.06 FIP) Bronson Arroyo (4.09 FIP) Jason Vargas (4.04 FIP) Freddy Garcia (4.05 FIP) You can quibble with a lot of the individual projections (and I would-- Jake Westbrook and Jeff Francis, not to mention Freddy Garcia, are probably way too high, while Steamer doesn't know about injuries/age of Halladay, Oswalt, and Haren), but you don't think there are a dozen options here that are at least as appealing? And almost all of them will sign for less than $10m a year on a short-term commitment. You're right that Dempster's longer track record and history of health might appeal to a GM of a contending team needing reliable back-end rotation innings (especially as the pitching market gets more and more picked over)-- I'm thinking the Giants or the Royals (note that I also chose teams with dumb GMs), for instance. But to a non-contender like the Marlins or the Twins or the Padres who just need someone to eat up innings for as cheap as possible, I don't see the fit. They can do just as good for cheaper on the free agent market.
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Post by jmei on Nov 17, 2013 12:53:00 GMT -5
I do think playoff (especially WS experience) counts when it comes to mentoring young impressionable minds. I think this was FUNDAMENTAL to the success of the 2013 RS. Fair enough (I disagree, but won't belabor the point), but just about every guy on the above list has playoff experience as well. Also remember that Dempster didn't make a start during the 2013 playoffs and only had a handful of mop-up innings-- I'm not sure he's the paragon of playoff experience you seem to be making him out to be. Right, it's the Marlins' money. Does that seem like an organization that would spend a lot of cash on veteran mentoring? Every summer, they sell off every veteran player making more than $5m on their roster. Their owner is a noted cheapskate who pockets revenue-sharing money and doesn't spend it on payroll. Again, I just don't see the fit.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 17, 2013 13:19:26 GMT -5
With the Twins desperate for starters I could easily see us dumping Dempsters salary on them if needed. They are talking to several FAs that would cost Dempster money but each would probably go somewhere else to a contender if the money is comparable. Twins are talking to Arroyo, yes, but does anyone really see them giving him 13m over a 1Y deal? Not hardly. Nolasco? I can see him shaking down a team like the twins over 3, even 4y. His pure stuff has always been there, he throws low 90's FB, can touch as high as 94-5 and has one of the better knee bender curves when he is on, it's him being on that's been the key. His talent is the difference between Dempster and Arroyo, along with several years of age, not relying on an assortment of upper 80's to 90mph junk. Nolasco should probably be able to be the same type of pitcher he was in the NL in the AL and that's better than over paid/hyped guys, such as Edwin Jackson. Better to give Nolasco a 3/4 year deal at 12-13m AAV than a couple of guys like Dempster and Arroyo who are nothing but carbon copies of the failed types of starters the team has had for years.
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Nov 17, 2013 13:27:14 GMT -5
Looking at the realistic fits for Dempster, I think you need either a desperate team that loses out on other names, or one that has a good young pitching staff, but could use the veteran presence and innings, but can reasonably be seen to contend and has some money. My best guesses for those teams are (in no particular order), SF, LAD, KC, Sea, Pit, Mil, LAA, Cle and maybe Was. Again, personally I think he would have the most value to a team close to contention, with a lot if young arms that you want to lighten a workload on, that is. In the National League. My idea is the "maximized value" for the Sox is whichever team will eat the most cash, not necessarily send back the best player. The idea of Pit taking on salary to replace Burnett's innings at a much lowere guaranteed commitment who wouldn't block their young arms for the comp pick that has been suggested is almost in my mind a perfect fit.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 17, 2013 16:37:30 GMT -5
Not that this matters much, but Boston and Pitt clearly work well together in making trades. Have had a few in recent years.
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Post by p23w on Nov 17, 2013 21:51:48 GMT -5
Fair enough (I disagree, but won't belabor the point), but just about every guy on the above list has playoff experience as well. Also remember that Dempster didn't make a start during the 2013 playoffs and only had a handful of mop-up innings-- I'm not sure he's the paragon of playoff experience you seem to be making him out to be. Recent experience and impressionable minds. Fernandez was, what, 15 years old when Halladay last pitched in a WS game. Mentoring is not just about one's own experience. Stories of Lackey and Lester winning playoff clinching games before their 25th year resonate. Even relaying Napoli's near WS win (twice one strike away) only to change teams, get diagnosed with a debilitating condition, and come back (through hard work and dedication) to win a WS ring plays well in a young club house. Again you contrast this experience with money. Let's just us understand that what you keep harping at is not OUR money. It's OPM. What value they place in exchange for THEIR money is not YOURS (or mine) to judge. Right, it's the Marlins' money. Does that seem like an organization that would spend a lot of cash on veteran mentoring? Every summer, they sell off every veteran player making more than $5m on their roster. Their owner is a noted cheapskate who pockets revenue-sharing money and doesn't spend it on payroll. Again, I just don't see the fit. I suggested that a Dempster trade could be part of a "bigger" needs match between the RS and the Marlins. The Marlins need hitting. I know, I know the Marlins are sitting on some dynamite in the young bats of Stanton, Yelich, Marsinick, and some questionable unfulfilled expectations from Coghlan and Morrison. They finished last in almost all offensive categories last year. Ergo, they need additional power and a "professional" hitter, preferably from the left side. I consider Middlebrooks to be a power hitter and Carp to be a professional LHB. The Marlins owner doesn't get involved until his baseball people suggest a manner in which to improve the team. If the owner buys the needs fit he gets to to negotiate the financial side of the deal. I think that fits Loria's M.O. He doesn't seem to trust other people when it comes to negotiating with his money. The other side of the coin is YTBD. If Ellsbury leaves then the other shoe drops with respect to need. And the Marlins are flush with what I would consider candidates to fulfill that need. I can well understand why, on the face of it a Dempster trade to the Marlins makes little sense, but when you expand the parameters and the needs for both teams, i think it could work to the benefit of both organizations. The money becomes "important" only after both sides acknowledge the value of the other teams offering(s). If Ellsbury leaves I'll expand on this in a trade proposal thread. Read more: forum.soxprospects.com/thread/1068/2014-red-sox-rotation?page=15#ixzz2kxUb6QU0
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 18, 2013 0:01:09 GMT -5
I think if they had a decent manager around, like McKeon for example.. They would seek out a solid veteran with years of experience as a 6th starter, maybe 5th even for next year, who would pitch maybe once a week, or maybe just step in if an injury hit, one of the kiddie corp fails and has to get sent back to AAA for more seasoning, because the rotation next year for the Fish is actually a strength:
Fernandez :22YO Eovaldi: 23 Alvarez: 23 Turner: 22
The 5th spot has several options and one is a guy Boston drafted way back in 2008 and didn't sign.. Brian Flynn (18th round) that the Fish are high on. They got him from the Tigers in the Sanchez deal and are very high on him after Detroit took him in the 7th rd in 2011.
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