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Post by jrffam05 on Nov 13, 2013 15:01:43 GMT -5
Dempster is very tradable. You are not going to get back a Will Myers, but with the asking price of a pitcher like Nolasco some team would take on Dempster. If he was placed on waviers there would be a couple teams putting in claims. I wouldn't go as far as to say he's 'very tradable'. Yes, it's only a 1 year commitment. But I have a hard time believing Dempster could command a 1 year/$13.25M dollar deal if he had reentered free agency this year. I would rather take my chances on Hudson, Haren, Colon, Kazmir, and a handful of others who will likely sign for short years/money before I turn my attention to Dempster. My point was Dempster isn't in a Vernon Wells type situation, as it seems has been suggested. We don't need to take on his salary to get rid of him. We wouldn't be hard pressed to find a team who would give us say, Brian Johnson and take on most if not all of Dempsters Salary.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 13, 2013 15:31:17 GMT -5
There's simply no keeping all six starters, because of payroll. Depth is not an issue when you have Workman in the pen but stretched out in ST (and maybe Morales, ditto) and Webster, Ranuado, Barnes, Wright, and Hinojosa comprising your AAA rotation.
So, does investing $16.5M (in AAV) to upgrade 5th starter from Ryan Dempster to Jake Peavy, and make Dempster a long reliever, make any sense? Especially when one of the aforementioned six pitchers (identity TBD) has a decent chance of actually being better than either one? That's money that could pay for both re-signing Saltalamacchia versus trading for Hanigan, and adding a Uehara type.
No one would claim Ryan Dempster and his $13.5 salary on waivers, when Steamer is projecting him to be worth $4.5. And you're not going to clear much room under the tax limit by dealing him and eating most of his salary.
Peavy, OTOH, is making $14.5M and is projected to be worth $15M. Your odds of getting someone like Iglesias for him are comparable to your odds of getting Jed Lowrie, Stolmy Pimentel, Jerry Sands, Kyle Weiland, and Ivan DeJesus for Brock Holt. (Yes, that's how the two Melancon trades now shape up.) But we should be able to get something mildly interesting.
If Dempster gets off to a good start next year as the 5th starter, you may be able to move him and eat less salary and/or get a better player return on him.
I have explained the seemingly paradoxical interest in Hudson elsewhere. You have to deal Peavy before you've signed enough FA to go over the limit, otherwise teams know you have to deal him and will offer you nothing. But that means you may end up with money unspent. Hudson projects to be worth $10.5M, but he reportedly wants to come here and might be had for $9M. If you have that money left in your budget, signing him make sense; he can be the 5th starter for two years, and now you can trade Lackey next winter if one of the kids has really stepped up and projects to be as good as him.
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Post by jmei on Nov 13, 2013 15:32:24 GMT -5
We don't need to take on his salary to get rid of him. We wouldn't be hard pressed to find a team who would give us say, Brian Johnson and take on most if not all of Dempsters Salary. Is that true, though? On one hand, Dempster was pretty bad in 2013, turns 37 next year, and is due a salary ($13.25m) that few teams can just find in their seat cushions. On the other hand, if he's grouped with the other free agent starters this offseason, he would have ranked 9th in fWAR accumulated between 2011-13, above guys like Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Lincecum, Josh Johnson, and Jason Vargas. I think it's possible a GM talks himself into taking most of Dempster's salary, but it's rather unlikely and only happens if the rest of the pitching market becomes both very expensive and/or scarce. One thing Dempster has going for him-- he has a low ceiling, but also a low floor. If a team needs a dependable back-end starter to fill out a rotation, Dempster is far less risky than Josh Johnson or Scott Kazmir or Roy Halladay or Roberto Hernandez (née Carmona). In that respect, he's comparable (if noticeably worse) than someone like Bronson Arroyo or Scott Feldman.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 13, 2013 15:33:36 GMT -5
Dempster is also higher ceiling than Roberto Hernandez, who is the worst pitcher in the world.
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Post by jmei on Nov 13, 2013 15:35:46 GMT -5
Dempster is also higher ceiling than Roberto Hernandez, who is the worst pitcher in the world. You mean Roberto "3.66 SIERA, 3.60 xFIP" Hernandez?
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 13, 2013 15:41:43 GMT -5
Is he the 33-year-old one with an 80 ERA+ since the start of 2008, a 75 ERA+ since the start of 2011, and two seasons with an ERA+ of 80 or higher in his entire career? Yeah, that one. FIP/SIERA (I like xFIP less) are great measures for a pitcher with a year or even two of great peripheral numbers but poor results. But when a guy has pitched badly for as long as Hernandez - and I don't mean below average, he's been below-replacement-level bad - then it comes a point where people need to admit he's a bad pitcher. It's like using batted ball metrics to argue that Tom Glavine wasn't actually that good. EDIT: I used worst pitcher in the world as something of an exaggeration, but ol' Fausto actually has the worst ERA- of any pitcher with 500 innings over the past six years. And yes, six years is an arbitrary endpoint that deliberately cuts off his pretty good 2007 season. But it's also a very long time.
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Post by docman on Nov 13, 2013 15:46:46 GMT -5
Ok, but you don't trade Lackey. He's an important piece of the 2014 rotation. So, at most, you need 2 starters. You already have Workman, which brings you down to 1 starter. Then you look at Pawtucket and see plenty of arms ready to hit the bigs in 2015. All of the sudden, you realize that there is no pitching problem.
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Post by jrffam05 on Nov 13, 2013 16:08:50 GMT -5
We don't need to take on his salary to get rid of him. We wouldn't be hard pressed to find a team who would give us say, Brian Johnson and take on most if not all of Dempsters Salary. Is that true, though? On one hand, Dempster was pretty bad in 2013, turns 37 next year, and is due a salary ($13.25m) that few teams can just find in their seat cushions. On the other hand, if he's grouped with the other free agent starters this offseason, he would have ranked 9th in fWAR accumulated between 2011-13, above guys like Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Lincecum, Josh Johnson, and Jason Vargas. I think it's possible a GM talks himself into taking most of Dempster's salary, but it's rather unlikely and only happens if the rest of the pitching market becomes both very expensive and/or scarce. One thing Dempster has going for him-- he has a low ceiling, but also a low floor. If a team needs a dependable back-end starter to fill out a rotation, Dempster is far less risky than Josh Johnson or Scott Kazmir or Roy Halladay or Roberto Hernandez (née Carmona). In that respect, he's comparable (if noticeably worse) than someone like Bronson Arroyo or Scott Feldman. I think so, unless there is an epic collapse in the FA starter market. Ervin Santana wants 110+, and he will probably get at least 100M. Now he is 5 years younger than Dempster, and that is a big factor, but his last 4 years look awfully close to Dempsters last 4 when the Sox signed him. Nolasco is asking for 80M. Free agent starters have lots of leverage these days. Dempster put up similar FWars in 2013 to Matt Cain, Jarrod Parker, Jermey Hellickson, Dan Harren, Bronson Arroyo. In my personal opinion, I would like to see the Red Sox aggressively (not foolishly) pursue Tanaka, trade Dempster, and shop Peavy and Doubrount, assuming we get Tanaka. I wouldn't trade Doubrount unless you got a great deal back, but I think we should explore that possibility. As I said earlier I think Doubrount has more value than Lester, so use that as a baseline to what I would consider a great deal back. I would also work on extending Lester before spring training. I would also listen to trades for Lackey, but my socks would have to be blown off to trade him. I wouldn't actively shop Lester or Buchholz.
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Post by jmei on Nov 13, 2013 16:15:00 GMT -5
Um, Ervin Santana isn't getting $80m, let alone $110m+. You can't just listen to what they're "asking for"-- it's just their agents asking for the moon and using the anchoring effect to make any subsequent contract request seem reasonable.
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Post by jrffam05 on Nov 13, 2013 16:16:04 GMT -5
Um, Ervin Santana isn't getting $80m, let alone $110m+. You can't just listen to what they're "asking for"-- it's just their agents asking for the moon and using the anchoring effect to make any subsequent contract request seem reasonable. I'll take over on Santana getting 80M.
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Post by jmei on Nov 13, 2013 16:16:48 GMT -5
Um, Ervin Santana isn't getting $80m, let alone $110m+. You can't just listen to what they're "asking for"-- it's just their agents asking for the moon and using the anchoring effect to make any subsequent contract request seem reasonable. I'll take over on Santana getting 80M. Loser has to write a haiku about Ervin Santana?
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Post by Don Caballero on Nov 13, 2013 17:03:07 GMT -5
Ervin Santana will likely get Edwin Jackson sort of money (and if Jackson deserves that contract, so does he), but given the inflation and the AWFUL FA crop he might get around 70M. Not much more though, unless someone (Sabean) loses (Sabean) his (Sabean) mind (Sabean).
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Post by jrffam05 on Nov 13, 2013 17:48:03 GMT -5
I'll take over on Santana getting 80M. Loser has to write a haiku about Ervin Santana? Hahaha YES! You are on.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Nov 13, 2013 18:12:35 GMT -5
I wouldn't go as far as to say he's 'very tradable'. Yes, it's only a 1 year commitment. But I have a hard time believing Dempster could command a 1 year/$13.25M dollar deal if he had reentered free agency this year. I would rather take my chances on Hudson, Haren, Colon, Kazmir, and a handful of others who will likely sign for short years/money before I turn my attention to Dempster. My point was Dempster isn't in a Vernon Wells type situation, as it seems has been suggested. We don't need to take on his salary to get rid of him. We wouldn't be hard pressed to find a team who would give us say, Brian Johnson and take on most if not all of Dempsters Salary. Dempster could be a last-girl/guy-in-the-bar type trade.
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Post by jmei on Nov 13, 2013 18:16:07 GMT -5
My point was Dempster isn't in a Vernon Wells type situation, as it seems has been suggested. We don't need to take on his salary to get rid of him. We wouldn't be hard pressed to find a team who would give us say, Brian Johnson and take on most if not all of Dempsters Salary. Dempster could be a last-girl/guy-in-the-bar type trade. I, for one, appreciate the gender-neutrality of this statement (and also agree with it).
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 14, 2013 18:10:25 GMT -5
Dempster would be perfect in Pittsburg next season. Sox really should trade him and that contract. This is a change after reading Speier's article.
The AAA rotation will be stacked next year. Does anyone believe this will affect how Sox view Workman?
Workman Webster Ranaudo Barnes Hinojosa Ruby Wright
Personally, I have felt Workman as a starter to begin the year is the best for him and the major league team, but looking at the logjam I question it. I guess you have to trust the other guys or what good are they.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 14, 2013 22:31:53 GMT -5
I'm not sure why Pittsburgh would want to really give up much for Dempster at his current salary? Not only would he result in a large hit to Pittsburgh's salary cap but they also have an option like Jameson Taillon in AAA or a pitcher like Kazmir who the team could have for 2 years and 16 mil or so. The only scenario that I could even fathom this would be one in which Pittsburgh has to give up neither a major league piece nor minor league piece. Maybe if the Sox eat about 6 mil or 7 mil of his 13.25 mil salary they could pry the Pirates' Competitive Balance Round B pick from them. This would have to occur at the very end of free agency after the Pirates have exhausted all other options.
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Post by iakovos11 on Nov 15, 2013 8:42:52 GMT -5
Or maybe they prefer the durability of Dempster to Kazmir. Dempster also has a more proven track record in the NL - esp. the NL Central.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 15, 2013 8:44:19 GMT -5
Maybe. But after having success with Liriano the team may feel it can recapture the magic with Kazmir.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 15, 2013 9:15:04 GMT -5
Pittsburg wouldn't give up anything of importance. Just take the salary. If Sox move a starter it's to free up money for something else.
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Post by p23w on Nov 15, 2013 11:07:04 GMT -5
I think Dempster would be a good fit for the Marlins. They were where he first toed a MLB mound. He could mentor both the young starters and bullpen. He gives them reliable IP. His contract is only for one year. I don't know the Marlins side of the equation, but I think Dempster could be part of a bigger deal with the Marlins.
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Post by jmei on Nov 15, 2013 11:11:06 GMT -5
The Marlins wouldn't be interested even if they'd only have to pay half of Dempster's salary. Even if they wanted to contend, they could get a starting pitcher with more upside for cheaper on the free agent market.
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Post by p23w on Nov 16, 2013 19:33:08 GMT -5
The Marlins wouldn't be interested even if they'd only have to pay half of Dempster's salary. Even if they wanted to contend, they could get a starting pitcher with more upside for cheaper on the free agent market. The Marlins oldest SP is 27. The most IP by a Marlins starter last year was 130. Given that a GM has to plan for 1440+ IP and has an average SP age of 24 years. I think Dempster fits. Throw in the fact that his NL ERA is more than a half run less per 9 than his AL ERA, and I think Dempster would be someone the Marlins would covet. I don't see the Marlins contending in 2014, but I do see a lot of maturation in process with the young arms. Not many veteran SPitchers with recent WS experience on their resume AND who could contribute. I suppose Halladay would be cheaper. Even Zito, but neither could give the Marlins a 180 IP "boost" and last years playoff experience into the Marlin locker room.
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Post by jmei on Nov 16, 2013 19:56:11 GMT -5
I can literally name a dozen free agent veteran starting pitchers who will come cheaper than Ryan Dempster and can at least approximate his performance. Here's a fine start, for instance. Unless you think "playoff experience" is worth a $10m a year boost (and many of those guys do have extensive playoff experience), any of them would make for cheaper alternatives for bulk innings.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 16, 2013 20:02:40 GMT -5
Jose Fernandez will throw 220 innings next year no problem. I just wanted to say that because he's a stud.
Ryan Dempster wouldn't interest the Marlins unless Sox paid for him to pitch there and that's not happening.
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