|
Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 11, 2013 19:59:32 GMT -5
I am not saying Abreu is going to impact the league like Lebron James did. Some of you need to freaking READ and comprehend better. I am saying that the amount of data we have available to us from numerous videos, on sight scouting reports at various international competitions and 6 years or so of participation in the cuban league is certainly more than the comparable data of trying to scout any high school player who has never even set foot on a a professional level court yet. If you all want to argue that point go at it but I'm not going to just roll over and play dead for you just because some of you disagree. As is often the case, sometimes you are just flat out wrong. No one here has a monopoly on analytical ability. Do you think that there were maybe some pretty bad players in the high school teams Lebron played against also? Yet you completely fail to realize projecting a BASEBALL PLAYER for BASEBALL PERFORMANCE/PRODUCTION is completely different than projecting SALES from a SPOKESPERSON/SPONSORED ATHLETE. Nike's "gamble" is nothing like an MLB team's gamble for a prospect. This entire comparison is absurd and should be treated accordingly. Also, no, there was WAY more scouting and information around LeBron than Abreu...that's not opinion, that's fact. I mean are we going to start comparing Bryce Harper to raw HS basketball players who project as late second round picks next? It isn't reasonable on any level.
|
|
|
Post by Gwell55 on Oct 11, 2013 21:13:29 GMT -5
www.soxprospects.com/players/linares-juan.htm gives J.C. Linares' stats his last three years in Cuba, when he was 22, 23, 24. He basically had a 1000 OPS for three years, with OBP 430-460, and was called "a natural center fielder." Pretty sobering. Ya, 750,000 doesn't buy much out of Cuba does it! What did Iglesias get 2 million a year for what 4yrs?
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Oct 11, 2013 21:28:24 GMT -5
I am saying that the amount of data we have available to us from numerous videos, on sight scouting reports at various international competitions and 6 years or so of participation in the cuban league is certainly more than the comparable data of trying to scout any high school player who has never even set foot on a a professional level court yet. I think it's accurate to say that there have been fewer in-game scouting looks at Abreu than any team would have for an early-round high school draftee. That's simply a fact-- American scouts are not permitted at Serie Nacional games, and as I mentioned above, although he's played in many international tournaments, those have been spread out over a number of years and have come against very inconsistent levels of competition. There's lots of data (he's played in a staggering 10 seasons already, which means he premiered at the age of 16), but it's unclear at best how that performance translates to the major league level. The lack of scouting looks makes him a riskier proposition than pretty much every MLB free agent or a comparable NPB player. I understand the stats are really gaudy, but remember than the SN is generally accepted to have the talent level of somewhere between low-A and AA, and we've seen a lot of players put up crazy stats there but then fail to translate that into comparable production in the majors. Plus, as has been discussed ad naseum in this thread, the scouting reports that have emerged paint him as a player with lots of power but who lacks the hit tool or the defensive ability to be an elite player. I think you're way off if you think 2013 Mike Napoli is his floor, for instance, or if you think he has a Pujols-esque ceiling. He'll probably get a deal in the $50-60m range, but it's an open question whether he'll be worth that deal.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 12, 2013 8:30:40 GMT -5
I wonder what the dynamic is for a player coming out of Cuba. Going from a communist environment where there is relatively little incentive to try hard. Being used to having very little in terms of possessions or even expectations potentially. For some players do they tank it when they make $500,000 and think to themselves that they have made it ...why try harder? Or are some even hungrier to make it and actually try harder than most. It would be key to get inside each players head before signing them. Ergo Abreu being in the Redsox traning center as absolutely key to whether or not they decide to offer him the big bucks. They would appear to be in the best position to know what they have got psychologically. Getting him to the Redsox traning center means he is very important for both sides of that negotiation. Abreu wanted to be there ( or at least his agent probably recommended it ) and the Redsox wanted him to be there. It may have been considered important for both sides.
|
|
|
Post by soxcentral on Oct 12, 2013 8:36:47 GMT -5
Plus, as has been discussed ad naseum in this thread, the scouting reports that have emerged paint him as a player with lots of power but who lacks the hit tool or the defensive ability to be an elite player. I think you're way off if you think 2013 Mike Napoli is his floor, for instance, or if you think he has a Pujols-esque ceiling. He'll probably get a deal in the $50-60m range, but it's an open question whether he'll be worth that deal. Sounds like this is Will Middlebrooks with a belly. As much as I like to believe these international mystery men are the solutions to all that ails us, its sounding like Abreu isn't going to bring us any more than we can get elsewhere for less commitment.
|
|
|
Post by Gwell55 on Oct 12, 2013 9:56:51 GMT -5
Plus, as has been discussed ad naseum in this thread, the scouting reports that have emerged paint him as a player with lots of power but who lacks the hit tool or the defensive ability to be an elite player. I think you're way off if you think 2013 Mike Napoli is his floor, for instance, or if you think he has a Pujols-esque ceiling. He'll probably get a deal in the $50-60m range, but it's an open question whether he'll be worth that deal. Sounds like this is Will Middlebrooks with a belly. As much as I like to believe these international mystery men are the solutions to all that ails us, its sounding like Abreu isn't going to bring us any more than we can get elsewhere for less commitment. If we take a look at what he did in the 2013 World Baseball Classic, you could by rights claim he is just beneath Cespedes and figure from there with a claim of SSS being the downfall. Either way the guy is going to get 3-30M or 4-40M or higher, when looking at what salaries are up from in 2012.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Oct 16, 2013 15:32:08 GMT -5
“@buster_ESPN: Bidding on Cuba defector Jose Abreu is expected to be for a $70 million deal, sources say. White Sox,Astros, Rangers viewed as frontrunners.”
I would pass (seems like the sox did also)
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 16, 2013 15:43:09 GMT -5
Considering how many HBP he has, he probably is an acute pull hitter. The Astros LF is extremely short which would make him a good fit there plus they have plenty of money available. The Rangers just need a power bat, preferably of the non PED variety, and could use an upgrade at 1st base. The white sox have Konerko retiring plus they like slugger types a lot. that doesn't in itself mean that the Redsox are not still interested though IMO. All it does is confirm to me that the intiial numbers being bandied about were sand bagging. The bottom line is that big time power is still the most valuable asset.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Oct 16, 2013 15:56:31 GMT -5
Considering how many HBP he has, he probably is an acute pull hitter. The Astros LF is extremely short which would make him a good fit there plus they have plenty of money available. The Rangers just need a power bat, preferably of the non PED variety, and could use an upgrade at 1st base. The white sox have Konerko retiring plus they like slugger types a lot. that doesn't in itself mean that the Redsox are not still interested though IMO. All it does is confirm to me that the intiial numbers being bandied about were sand bagging. The bottom line is that big time power is still the most valuable asset. I would still pass if that is the actual cost
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 16, 2013 16:04:38 GMT -5
If reports that he has lost a lot of weight are true he could be a gold mine. Who knows what he will become in the US? He's still very young and in his prime. He also has a lot of experience and has put up consistently great numbers. I like that he gets hit by a lot of pitches. The guy appears determined to succeed to the point of putting his body on the line, time after time.
Every team is doing the what if analysis for this guy and some are going to see him as a very expensive option but still be willing to pull the trigger. In this type of situation the odds are that some team or teams will overbid just by the nature of this unrestricted auction with relatively little data available. But what if every team is wrong? What if his weight loss puts him in a completely different category? Increases his bat speed beyond anything he has achieved before. He could be a game changer for some team next year.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Oct 16, 2013 16:42:03 GMT -5
But what if every team is wrong? What if his weight loss puts him in a completely different category? Increases his bat speed beyond anything he has achieved before. He could be a game changer for some team next year.
|
|
|
Post by jdb on Oct 16, 2013 17:36:22 GMT -5
It would be nice to see Houston open the purse strings a little bit. That farm system is starting to bare fruit and come June they get to pair Rondon with Appel and McCullers as high end starting pitcher prospects.
|
|
|
Post by hammerhead on Oct 16, 2013 17:42:22 GMT -5
But what if every team is wrong? What if his weight loss puts him in a completely different category? Increases his bat speed beyond anything he has achieved before. He could be a game changer for some team next year. my thoughts exactly
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Oct 16, 2013 17:43:02 GMT -5
at this point i would be fine resigning napoli
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 16, 2013 19:16:27 GMT -5
Considering how many HBP he has, he probably is an acute pull hitter. And based on his hair color, he probably is better at hitting fastballs than offspeed pitches. Or something.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 16, 2013 20:52:25 GMT -5
If he loses weight from his recent 260 lbs just maybe he's a little quicker with the bat. And reports are that he has lost a lot of weight, as Puig did after he left Cuba. If he crowds the plate and gets hit by a lot of pitches and is also a power hitter who hits more HR than anyone in Cuban baseball, it's likely he is also a pull hitter. I vaguely remember he got hit 30 times in a little over 300 AB one year. That is a guy who crowds the plate a lot. Why would he crowd the plate that much? He's not a lead off type like Victorino. He probably wants to jack the ball out of the park. And his numbers indicate a guy with an extremely high XBH percentage. He slugged .986 in 2011. But you guys want to insult so have at it.
The word on the street was that he would be signed for $30 - $40 mil. I comment that it probably will be for a lot more and most of you disagree. One nay sayer after another...again. I say he blows right past $50-$60 mil. Then a nationally recognized reporter ( Buster Olney ) confirms that they are projecting around $70 mil. I'm probably right. Again. But some of you guys just can't handle it.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Oct 16, 2013 21:00:45 GMT -5
If he loses weight from his recent 260 lbs just maybe he's a little quicker with the bat. And reports are that he has lost a lot of weight, as Puig did after he left Cuba. Puig actually gained a lot of weight after he defected because he couldn't work out ( link). Also, note that HBP numbers in Serie Nacional are extremely high in general (see here, for instance), so I'm not sure you can read anything from his high HBP numbers. Plus, there are guys like Victorino and Shin-Soo Choo who have crazy HBP numbers in MLB but aren't dead pull hitters.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 16, 2013 22:08:50 GMT -5
Most teams scouted Puig when he had gained weight from the inaction. He was suspended all of 2011-2012.
Puig and Cespede's numbers in in the 2010-2011 season (Puig's last season in Cuba ):
Player 2B 3B HR AVG OBP SLG BB SO Yasiel Puig 19 6 17 .330 .430 .581 49 39 Yoenis Cespedes 17 1 33 .333 .424 .667 49 40
Abreu's number same season, (injured for 23 games ):
.453/.597/.986 with 79 runs, 93 RBI and 33 home runs in only 66 games.
Granted that Puig was only 19 years old but that is a huge discrepancy. Abreu and Cespedes were only 22-23.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 16, 2013 23:35:13 GMT -5
U Most teams scouted Puig when he had gained weight from the inaction. He was suspended all of 2011-2012. Puig and Cespede's numbers in in the 2010-2011 season (Puig's last season in Cuba ): Player 2B 3B HR AVG OBP SLG BB SO Yasiel Puig 19 6 17 .330 .430 .581 49 39 Yoenis Cespedes 17 1 33 .333 .424 .667 49 40 Abreu's number same season, (injured for 23 games ): .453/.597/.986 with 79 runs, 93 RBI and 33 home runs in only 66 games. Granted that Puig was only 19 years old but that is a huge discrepancy. Abreu and Cespedes were only 22-23. You realize that this is like comparing minor league stats, right? Serie Nacional has been compared to something like High A, if it had a much wider spread of talent, so like, Double-A to Low A, but on a bell curve. Would you argue that simply because a player had better stats in the Carolina League than a player in the Majors right now did when he was there, that he therefore MUST be better as vociferously as you're trying to make this Abreu argument right now? Because that's what you're doing. Nobody is saying he wasn't a great hitter in Cuba. That's why we're having the conversation. But stats from Cuba don't really mean much in predicting MLB performance.
|
|
|
Post by soxfanatic on Oct 17, 2013 7:52:55 GMT -5
Some excerpts from an article by el Nuevo Herald. (Translated via Google Translate)
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Oct 17, 2013 11:24:48 GMT -5
Some excerpts from an article by el Nuevo Herald. (Translated via Google Translate) where the hell would DET play him?
|
|
|
Post by soxfanatic on Oct 17, 2013 11:29:17 GMT -5
Some excerpts from an article by el Nuevo Herald. (Translated via Google Translate) where the hell would DET play him? Read the quote again. It says his agents are busy with their players who are still playing in the postseason and are therefore in LA and Detroit now.
|
|
|
Post by soxfanatic on Oct 17, 2013 13:44:51 GMT -5
Jesse Sanchez ?@jessesanchezmlb 58s Sources: Cuban slugger Abreu down to #Astros, #RedSox and #WhiteSox. Could sign in next two weeks atmlb.com/1bZTDFD
|
|
|
Post by mjammz on Oct 17, 2013 14:05:52 GMT -5
Jesse Sanchez is pretty tied into these situations. While there has been a lot of misinformation out there on Abreu the one constant from the beginning is that the Red Sox would be one of the front runners. From Jerry Crasnicks, early tweets, to the fact he works out at our domincan facility. The fact that they are still in it, bodes very well for them IMO.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 17, 2013 14:23:16 GMT -5
Jesse Sanchez ?@jessesanchezmlb 58s Sources: Cuban slugger Abreu down to #Astros, #RedSox and #WhiteSox. Could sign in next two weeks atmlb.com/1bZTDFD So you've got to figure, if the money is close, that being the only good team there helps, right? At least the Astros have some talent coming up. Don't get the ChiSox being in it.
|
|