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Post by godot on Apr 28, 2014 10:40:52 GMT -5
Regardless of what the Sox did or were willing to do, they did recognize he was a talent ( and perhaps one that is a nice fit in Fenway) No use to fret; that is done. As Satchel Page once said, "don't look back. something may be gaining on you." Satchel was great.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,924
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 28, 2014 16:03:01 GMT -5
True to this, but what free agents are this? Risk/reward. That's how most of these owners became billionaires. Your World Series point is valid too, though, I am sure for an extra $1M they could've kept the lid on this until after. Yeah, but those guys had unique risks that most free agents don't have. It's really tough to evaluate a guy when he's only faced vastly inferior competition, something that is especially true for hitters. Wily Mo Pena would look like a demi-god if you only saw him play in the low minors, but he couldn't adjust to major-league quality breaking/offspeed pitches. Similar criticisms were levied against Abreu (i.e., that he couldn't handle major-league quality inside fastballs), and though that doesn't look like the case so far, it means that Abreu had much more risk than a comparable domestic free agent. ADD: speaking of which, all but a couple of Abreu's home runs have come on pitches on the outer half of the plate. It'll be interesting to see how he adjusts to pitchers pitching him in more as the season goes on and scouting reports are updated.He's had 21 PA in base/out situations with high walk rates (pitch-around situations, which is to say RISP and 1B open, or runners on the corners with 2 outs), and he's hit .444 / .542 / .944, with 5 BB and 2 SO. In all other situations (challenge and neutral), he's had 91 PA and hit .224 / .275 / .447, with 3 BB and 23 SO.Basically, when pitchers have felt they needed to go after him, they've had tremendous success. When they've felt they could afford to pitch him carefully, he's destroyed them. My comment on Dan Szymborski's article on him at ESPN, with slightly different splits and an update on the times-faced-pitcher splits I quoted earlier:
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Post by godot on Apr 28, 2014 16:23:46 GMT -5
They may already know his cold spots, but hitting them is easy said than done. No doubt, the traditional "keep it away from him" does not work well, as he has good plate coverage and power to the opposite field. Eduardo Perez did an interesting analysis and suggested that some have tried pitching him in, but they have to be precise. Ironically, he said that some have done okay by going down the middle and changing speeds). Undoubtedly, they will ( or may have already)have a book on him, and he can't keep this pace. But to say "what we seen so far seems largely to be a mirage caused by unfamiliarity" is a bit of a overstatement. First do you have enough data? Much of what you say sounds like speculation and interpretative leaps and not what the data "tell us". Maybe you have more data. Moreover, you should show how his mechanics and skills are not what some say they are or lends itself to how you suggest they should pitch. Mirages are usually in the minds are in the minds of the beholders or good drugs, anywhoo. Let's wait a month or so.
Signed his agent.
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