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Post by grandsalami on Oct 17, 2013 17:50:32 GMT -5
Let me be clear-- I understand the perspective that Abreu's stats in SN were so much better than other defectors (Cespedes, Puig, Morales, Viciedo, etc.) that it might tell us something. But that doesn't mean that he's going to be a better hitter than Cespedes or Puig, especially if the scouting reports are much less glowing (as they have been). and given that Abreu is most likely the WORST fielder of the three you named, his bat would need to be that much better to cover for the lack of a glove..... Thats not an easy task to do. Also given his scouting reports were not as good as Puig or Cespedes... Usually scouting reports are telling.... (like you said)
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 17, 2013 17:52:24 GMT -5
Peter Gammons ?@pgammo 2m Gist of opinion is white sox over Astros at $70m for Abreu. Boston went above $40m
#'s!!!!!
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Post by burythehammer on Oct 17, 2013 18:22:15 GMT -5
I think this is pretty naive. We're not talking about some 16 YO Dominican, if the Red Sox sign Abreu for north of 40m it is to be their starting first baseman and it will make major headlines. I don't think it has any impact on their chances of beating DET and/or winning the WS but it would make for bad PR and a potentially awkward clubhouse situation at the worst possible time.
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 17, 2013 19:27:03 GMT -5
RT @ken_Rosenthal: Jose Abreu finalizing terms on six-year, $68M deal. Club expected to be #WhiteSox. Largest first-time contract for int’l.
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Post by jmei on Oct 17, 2013 22:28:40 GMT -5
Jesse Sanchez ?@jessesanchezmlb Sources confirm @ken_Rosenthal's report: Abreu 6 years, $68 million pending physical with CWS. #Astros & #RedSox were also in hunt today.
The years trouble me much more than the AAV. He might outplay that deal in the first couple years, but a defensively-challenged, bad body player as he enters his mid-30s? That's risk on top of risk. Glad the Red Sox passed.
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Post by taftreign on Oct 17, 2013 23:52:03 GMT -5
Agreed. 6 years is very concerning. 2 or 3 more years of Napoli looks like a much better alternative. At least he has shown the aptitude to pick up a decent first base defense and presently showing the ability to raise his game in the playoffs. Additionally are we sure we need a DH after next season? Ortiz is still bringing it at the plate and maybe he takes a one year qualifying offer in 2015 which would be 15 to 16 mil or agree on a more reasonable 10/11 mil deal. One would assume he desires to be a HOFer and as a DH you generally have to have overly compelling numbers. The other alternative to Napoli would be to buy "low" by outbidding the Brewers on Corey Hart. Guy can play when healthy. Won't likely require a draft pick. Could see him batting 5 or 6.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 17, 2013 23:55:27 GMT -5
RT @ken_Rosenthal: Jose Abreu finalizing terms on six-year, $68M deal. Club expected to be #WhiteSox. Largest first-time contract for int’l. I guess that makes as much sense as anything if you're the White Sox.
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Post by marrcus on Oct 18, 2013 1:00:13 GMT -5
2 or 3 more years of Napoli -----------------------------------
I was never particularly optimistic they would outbid teams. I'm sure the RS made a strong Abreu offer but Napoli's now been given strong leverage.
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 18, 2013 1:57:57 GMT -5
Danny Knobler ?@dannyknoblercbs 2u Jose Abreu is indeed headed to the White Sox. 6 years, $68 million. @ken_Rosenthal had the numbers first.
Just to confirm
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Post by feez732 on Oct 18, 2013 2:16:50 GMT -5
Jesse Sanchez ?@jessesanchezmlb Sources confirm @ken_Rosenthal's report: Abreu 6 years, $68 million pending physical with CWS. #Astros & #RedSox were also in hunt today. The years trouble me much more than the AAV. He might outplay that deal in the first couple years, but a defensively-challenged, bad body player as he enters his mid-30s? That's risk on top of risk. Glad the Red Sox passed. He'll be 32 for the final season of the reported contract. He won't sniff his mid-30s during this contract, much less after his first couple years (which your post appeared to infer). I agree with your general point though. At that price, there really isn't as much potential for value on the contract and yet there still is a ton of risk. They should be able to easily find other ways to add decent value with that kind of money.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 18, 2013 10:34:48 GMT -5
I think the White Sox are right on target. He will probably be a solid value at that price. He does appear to be in great shape and his numbers were clearly better than any other Cuban player currently in mlb. He was a borderline triple crown winner in Cuba twice recently. He doesn't hit just for power. He also hits for average with exceptional obp. If he has truly lost some weight as reported, and keeps himself in shape, he could be one of the best offensive performers in mlb according to the numbers and some scouting reports.
Again, I not saying that is definite. He of course comes with some significant risk. He does appear to be worth the risk at that level to me though.
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 18, 2013 10:36:33 GMT -5
Ken Rosenthal ?@ken_Rosenthal 22m Sources: Bidding for Abreu was close and furious. Four clubs bid between $63 and $66M. #WhiteSox’s winning bid was $68M.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Oct 18, 2013 11:44:52 GMT -5
Olney reported earlier today that the Red Sox dropped out when the bidding exceeded $40 million. There are a number of reports today that Tanaka will get even more than Abreu once he posts. Kinda glad the Red Sox dropped out as that is way too much money for someone who some scouts question his bat speed as well as he willingness to keep in shape.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 18, 2013 13:00:23 GMT -5
I would have liked to have seen the Sox take that gamble. He could be the kind of power hitter in the middle of his prime who's affordable that the Red Sox could have used.
The problem is also the timing. Imagine if the news broke yesterday that the BoSox had signed him. Would have seemed strange, with Napoli still there, and probably would have created media attention that would take away from the good feeling of the 2013 team - almost like Napoli isn't doing well enough and the Sox are already to replace him.
I still think the Red Sox will regret not signing him to a deal down the road, but yesterday would have been a bad day to do it. Too bad he wasn't available after the season was over.
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 18, 2013 13:59:38 GMT -5
I would have liked to have seen the Sox take that gamble. He could be the kind of power hitter in the middle of his prime who's affordable that the Red Sox could have used. The problem is also the timing. Imagine if the news broke yesterday that the BoSox had signed him. Would have seemed strange, with Napoli still there, and probably would have created media attention that would take away from the good feeling of the 2013 team - almost like Napoli isn't doing well enough and the Sox are already to replace him. I still think the Red Sox will regret not signing him to a deal down the road, but yesterday would have been a bad day to do it. Too bad he wasn't available after the season was over. You really wanted the sox to go that much money and years for a player who is shit defensively and who's scouting reports have been horrible? I'm fine we passed because I believe Napoli will give us greater value if we resign him
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 18, 2013 14:28:34 GMT -5
I'm just glad this is over and moved pretty quickly. Too much risk for an unknown like him that may have big upside, but also HUGE downside. He can't do anything but hit so if he's not very good at that then he literally gives you nothing.
I'd much rather see that dough going to Tanaka... at least if he's subpar as a starter, chances are he could be a great relief pitcher... too much money as a reliever, but at least it'd probably give something.
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Post by bluechip on Oct 18, 2013 19:46:42 GMT -5
I would have liked to have seen the Sox take that gamble. He could be the kind of power hitter in the middle of his prime who's affordable that the Red Sox could have used. The problem is also the timing. Imagine if the news broke yesterday that the BoSox had signed him. Would have seemed strange, with Napoli still there, and probably would have created media attention that would take away from the good feeling of the 2013 team - almost like Napoli isn't doing well enough and the Sox are already to replace him. I still think the Red Sox will regret not signing him to a deal down the road, but yesterday would have been a bad day to do it. Too bad he wasn't available after the season was over. You really wanted the sox to go that much money and years for a player who is shit defensively and who's scouting reports have been horrible? I'm fine we passed because I believe Napoli will give us greater value if we resign him Defense at first is the most overrated thing among fans. There is a reason why Dougie M bounced around this league.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,981
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Post by jimoh on Oct 18, 2013 19:51:34 GMT -5
You really wanted the sox to go that much money and years for a player who is shit defensively and who's scouting reports have been horrible? I'm fine we passed because I believe Napoli will give us greater value if we resign him Defense at first is the most overrated thing among fans. There is a reason why Dougie M bounced around this league. Yeah, and Prince Fielder hasn't hurt his team at all in the ALCS.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 18, 2013 20:27:18 GMT -5
I would have liked to have seen the Sox take that gamble. He could be the kind of power hitter in the middle of his prime who's affordable that the Red Sox could have used. The problem is also the timing. Imagine if the news broke yesterday that the BoSox had signed him. Would have seemed strange, with Napoli still there, and probably would have created media attention that would take away from the good feeling of the 2013 team - almost like Napoli isn't doing well enough and the Sox are already to replace him. I still think the Red Sox will regret not signing him to a deal down the road, but yesterday would have been a bad day to do it. Too bad he wasn't available after the season was over. You really wanted the sox to go that much money and years for a player who is shit defensively and who's scouting reports have been horrible? I'm fine we passed because I believe Napoli will give us greater value if we resign him That contract is hardly a killer for the Red Sox. 1b is the least important position on the defensive spectrum and by time he'd be truly awful he'd be able to slide into Ortiz's DH slot. The scouting reports that I read weren't "horrible". I'm sure the Sox will re-sign Napoli. I like Napoli, but I don't know if his physical ailments will get the best of him in the next couple of years, plus I look at the Ks and think to myself that he's a candidate to have his BA plummet over the next couple of years. A 6 year $68 million deal for a guy who some people think will mash 30 homers/year is hardly a humungous gamble, compared to what the Sox wasted on Crawford, and what Ellsbury is going to command on the open market. What do you think you normally get when you sign a free agent? You get a guy on the wrong side of 30 who'd cost a lot more than Abreu would and is on the downside of his career and would possibly cost a draft pick. This isn't the case here with Abreu. It's not like the Sox have a bunch of budding power hitters/middle of the order types of hitters stashed in the minors - they have Bogaerts who is now up with the big club. They have top of the order types in Cecchini and Bradley, but as Ortiz ages they'll need to have that middle of the order have some power and beyond Bogaerts what do you have? And what will it cost you to get it? This is a gamble under ordinary circumstances I'd take. Unfortunately the timing would be awful - what message does it send to Napoli who right now is shooting for the ALCS MVP award? What message would the FO be sending to the 2013 team who's busting their butt to go all the way? If it were November, I'd be ticked that the Sox didn't sign him, but given how early he signed, and the special circumstances unfolding now, I'm alright with the Sox not getting him - I just wish the guy had waited a few weeks.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 18, 2013 20:28:08 GMT -5
I'm just glad this is over and moved pretty quickly. Too much risk for an unknown like him that may have big upside, but also HUGE downside. He can't do anything but hit so if he's not very good at that then he literally gives you nothing. I'd much rather see that dough going to Tanaka... at least if he's subpar as a starter, chances are he could be a great relief pitcher... too much money as a reliever, but at least it'd probably give something. I think the Yankees are all in on that guy so I wouldn't count on the Sox signing Tanaka.
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Post by jmei on Oct 18, 2013 21:30:56 GMT -5
On one hand, Abreu is being paid at a rate where he only has to accumulate an average of 2 WAR per season to break even. On the other hand, given his projected below-average baserunning and defense, he has to hit pretty well in order to crack 2 WAR. For instance, Prince Fielder only accumulated 2.2 fWAR despite hitting .279/.362/.457 over 712 PAs. Corey Hart only accumulated 2.2 fWAR in 2012 despite hitting .270/.334/.507 over 622 PAs. Abreu will have to hit at roughly that level, and while he certainly could hit as well or better than those two, that's not necessarily a bet I'd want to take.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 18, 2013 23:02:37 GMT -5
Hart was pretty pitiful defensively in 2012 though. In 2010 and 2011, with similar offensive numbers and still below average defensive stats his fWARs were 3.1 and 3.8, respectively. With that said, there are certainly no guarantees that Abreu can match Hart's production.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 19, 2013 1:42:10 GMT -5
Defense at first is the most overrated thing among fans. There is a reason why Dougie M bounced around this league. Yeah, and Prince Fielder hasn't hurt his team at all in the ALCS. If he were hitting better than .211/.286/.263 in a series that has been as close as this one has been, chances are his defense wouldn't have hurt them at all. He's been unacceptable in all phases. But if he were hitting like he's being paid to do, his crap defense would be livable, sure.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 19, 2013 5:01:02 GMT -5
A better defender at 1st could actually have helped Detroit win 2 more games in this series. 1 game if he had stopped Iglesias's errant throw and one game on that pop up and both plays were actually pretty easy. And since he hasn't hit either, a Casey Kotchman or Doug M at 1st and they would probably have wrapped up this series already.
I doubt if Abreu is as bad as Fielder at 1st though. It is interesting that Cespedes, who I don't think was nearly as good offensively in Cuba as Abreu, put up a 2.9 WAR and a 2.3 WAR in the last 2 years even with negative defensive value.
It certainly could be that Cespedes was better positioned to hit MLB pitching, that scouts thought he would make the adjustment better, but look who got a lot higher contract. I don't think we should always believe what we read about Cuban players. The experts said 30-40 mil but now we read about 4 bidders for over $60. They were sand bagging it.
When I was young there was an expression in the computer industry. "No one ever got fired for buying IBM". It is more conventional to go with the proven commodity, less risky and there certainly is substantial value in that. It doesn't necessarily make you executive of the year either though. Or in this instance win you championships.
Napoli certainly does have some compelling attributes though. The ability to hit good pitching is very significant in the playoffs and his defense has made a difference also. I would rather have a Carlos Beltran on my team as compared to a guy who put up even better numbers at less important times. Just win baby, win.
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 14, 2014 11:45:31 GMT -5
Five teams bid more than $60 million for White Sox rookie first baseman Jose Abreu, as I reported Saturday on the FOX Sports 1 pregame show. The other four, according to major league sources, were the Astros, Brewers, Rockies and Red Sox.
The Red Sox, who came within $5 million of the White Sox'€™s winning $68 million bid, would have tried to re-sign first baseman Mike Napoli even if they had landed Abreu. And if they had succeeded in getting both, Abreu -- ahem -- might have started the season at Triple-A.
B
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