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Sign Jose Dariel Abreu? (10/17 update: signing with CWS)
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 17, 2013 14:29:33 GMT -5
Jesse Sanchez ?@jessesanchezmlb 58s Sources: Cuban slugger Abreu down to #Astros, #RedSox and #WhiteSox. Could sign in next two weeks atmlb.com/1bZTDFD So you've got to figure, if the money is close, that being the only good team there helps, right? At least the Astros have some talent coming up. Don't get the ChiSox being in it. White Sox have a history with Cuban defectors though, see Dayan Viciedo, Alexei Ramirez and even Jose Contreras. They could use a first baseman with Konerko on the back end of his career.
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Post by mredsox89 on Oct 17, 2013 14:37:32 GMT -5
Buster Olney ?@buster_ESPN 35s Red Sox don't expect to sign Jose Abreu; they figure he'll be signing with another team. White Sox, Astros now seen as frontrunners
Interesting
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 17, 2013 14:49:07 GMT -5
Buster Olney ?@buster_ESPN 35s Red Sox don't expect to sign Jose Abreu; they figure he'll be signing with another team. White Sox, Astros now seen as frontrunners Interesting so we dont know shit?
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 17, 2013 14:53:51 GMT -5
I wouldn't mind having a decent slugging power hitter myself either for when Ortiz retires, then gambling 70m on a guy who has never hit a baseball outside of any professional league of Cuba is something would say "pass" to also.
Let the Chisox and Astros duke it out.
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 17, 2013 14:58:22 GMT -5
Buster Olney ?@buster_ESPN 23s Source say Astros are skeptical about their chances of signing Jose Abreu. Made a strong offer but all but certain they fell short. W. Sox?
Update:
Buster Olney ?@buster_ESPN 2m The Astros did, in fact, make a hard bid on Abreu while falling short: Heard their bid was between $50 million and $60 million.
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 17, 2013 15:46:40 GMT -5
Jon Heyman ?@jonheymancbs 2m Hear #chisox strong on abreu bidding.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 17, 2013 16:04:55 GMT -5
Sounds like this will be a missed opportunity for the Red Sox. It seems like they're gun-shy since Daisuke flopped. These guys without the track records are gambles but you look at the money the Sox spent on Crawford and others, and the gamble doesn't seem as bad. Hope they're not passing up on a big bopper behind Ortiz. Guess they'll have to overpay for Mike Napoli's decline?
Sounds like the ChiSox are taking a good gamble.
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 17, 2013 16:11:58 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Oct 17, 2013 16:15:36 GMT -5
If you were Mike Napoli and it turns out the Red Sox had just signed Abreu before game 5 of the ALCS, you'd be pretty pissed, right? Not saying that this played into the Red Sox front office's decisionmaking process at all or that it should, but if I were the player, I would be furious.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 17, 2013 16:20:26 GMT -5
If you were Mike Napoli and it turns out the Red Sox had just signed Abreu before game 5 of the ALCS, you'd be pretty pissed, right? Not saying that this played into the Red Sox front office's decisionmaking process at all or that it should, but if I were the player, I would be furious. Considering how much playing time Napoli lost to Jeff Mathis I'm guessing he has pretty thick skin for this stuff by now.
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Post by redsox1534 on Oct 17, 2013 16:25:47 GMT -5
If you were Mike Napoli and it turns out the Red Sox had just signed Abreu before game 5 of the ALCS, you'd be pretty pissed, right? Not saying that this played into the Red Sox front office's decisionmaking process at all or that it should, but if I were the player, I would be furious. Reports stated he wouldnt sign for another two weeks so there is plenty of time for teams to jump back in. Also if it was down to the astros, us and white sox an it was a matter of us offering a little less then the others id think he would take that. Also as the quote above me states were in the play offs with Mike Napoli being our 1B who is important to this team an keeping him happy only makes sense right now so we could have a deal in place for all we no an want to keep it quite a couple more weeks. 60 mill over 6 years isnt all that bad. I cant imagine him being worse then 250 avg and 20-25 HRS. We need another power bat wether Napoli is coming back or not. We gain tons of draft picks this offseason letting most our FA's walk and get guys to replace them threw the minors, trades and signings like Jose Abreu.
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 17, 2013 16:27:14 GMT -5
Sounds like this will be a missed opportunity for the Red Sox. It seems like they're gun-shy since Daisuke flopped. These guys without the track records are gambles but you look at the money the Sox spent on Crawford and others, and the gamble doesn't seem as bad. Hope they're not passing up on a big bopper behind Ortiz. Guess they'll have to overpay for Mike Napoli's decline? Sounds like the ChiSox are taking a good gamble. I would not call this a " missed opportunity" at all and given the scouting report on him have not been kind to him at all, I would rather resign napoli who is a known player and has played well on both sides of the field, then someone who is unknown..... or if napoli is not your cup o tea, give it to carp.... $70MM is a lot to give to some "unkown" player...
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 17, 2013 16:28:07 GMT -5
If you were Mike Napoli and it turns out the Red Sox had just signed Abreu before game 5 of the ALCS, you'd be pretty pissed, right? Not saying that this played into the Red Sox front office's decisionmaking process at all or that it should, but if I were the player, I would be furious. Considering how much playing time Napoli lost to Jeff Mathis I'm guessing he has pretty thick skin for this stuff by now. Maybe. But you live in the moment too. All these guys know, at base, it is a business. How often have you heard a player recite that mantra? On the other side, if we agreed not to sign Abreu would Napoli give us a home town discount? ..because he feels loyalty to management, the team, the fans? I don't think so.
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Post by soxfanatic on Oct 17, 2013 16:36:40 GMT -5
Sounds like this will be a missed opportunity for the Red Sox. It seems like they're gun-shy since Daisuke flopped. These guys without the track records are gambles but you look at the money the Sox spent on Crawford and others, and the gamble doesn't seem as bad. Hope they're not passing up on a big bopper behind Ortiz. Guess they'll have to overpay for Mike Napoli's decline? Sounds like the ChiSox are taking a good gamble. I would not call this a " missed opportunity" at all and given the scouting report on him have not been kind to him at all, I would rather resign napoli who is a known player and has played well on both sides of the field, then someone who is unknown..... or if napoli is not your cup o tea, give it to carp.... $70MM is a lot to give to some "unkown" player... Not signing a guy only because he's unknown is stupid. I'm sure the Red Sox have done decent scouting on him. Puig and Darvish were relatively unknown too. Look how that turned out.
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Post by Gwell55 on Oct 17, 2013 16:38:51 GMT -5
If you were Mike Napoli and it turns out the Red Sox had just signed Abreu before game 5 of the ALCS, you'd be pretty pissed, right? Not saying that this played into the Red Sox front office's decisionmaking process at all or that it should, but if I were the player, I would be furious. Reports stated he wouldnt sign for another two weeks so there is plenty of time for teams to jump back in. Also if it was down to the astros, us and white sox an it was a matter of us offering a little less then the others id think he would take that. Also as the quote above me states were in the play offs with Mike Napoli being our 1B who is important to this team an keeping him happy only makes sense right now so we could have a deal in place for all we no an want to keep it quite a couple more weeks. 60 mill over 6 years isnt all that bad. I cant imagine him being worse then 250 avg and 20-25 HRS. We need another power bat wether Napoli is coming back or not. We gain tons of draft picks this offseason letting most our FA's walk and get guys to replace them threw the minors, trades and signings like Jose Abreu. Also are the Sox in need of a DH in about two or three years? Seems to me this could be a tryout guy at first than the new DH when Ortiz is gone. He would fit the Papi and Giambi mold (albeit more expensive) with Carp in the mix I would think with his age and the timeline that the Sox are in right now.
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Post by mainesox on Oct 17, 2013 16:48:56 GMT -5
If you were Mike Napoli and it turns out the Red Sox had just signed Abreu before game 5 of the ALCS, you'd be pretty pissed, right? Not saying that this played into the Red Sox front office's decisionmaking process at all or that it should, but if I were the player, I would be furious. In this same vein, if you're the Sox, and this comes out today, don't you make it a point to get it out there that you don't expect to sign him, whether it's true or not?
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 17, 2013 17:06:29 GMT -5
Tim Britton ?@timbritton 5m Don’t get too excited about Abreu. Red Sox do not expect to sign him.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 17, 2013 17:12:25 GMT -5
If you were Mike Napoli and it turns out the Red Sox had just signed Abreu before game 5 of the ALCS, you'd be pretty pissed, right? Not saying that this played into the Red Sox front office's decisionmaking process at all or that it should, but if I were the player, I would be furious. In this same vein, if you're the Sox, and this comes out today, don't you make it a point to get it out there that you don't expect to sign him, whether it's true or not? Maybe, but if so, aren't you then manipulating Napoli by essentially publicly lying? I don't like that. Be clean. I think players would respect that rather than find out after the fact that you have intentionally deceived them. Ugh! These guys are big boys. Treat them like that and with respect. Going further....what trust would you build for the future??? ....and how would you feel about yourselves as puppeteers? Not good! Don't do it. Baseball is a business and all parties know it.
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Post by hammerhead on Oct 17, 2013 17:15:12 GMT -5
The last thing that the Red Sox or Mike Napoli are thinking about right now is the 1st baseman for next season. Guys like Napoli aren't dwelling on some international FA signing while they're in the ALCS
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 17, 2013 17:16:06 GMT -5
U Most teams scouted Puig when he had gained weight from the inaction. He was suspended all of 2011-2012. Puig and Cespede's numbers in in the 2010-2011 season (Puig's last season in Cuba ): Player 2B 3B HR AVG OBP SLG BB SO Yasiel Puig 19 6 17 .330 .430 .581 49 39 Yoenis Cespedes 17 1 33 .333 .424 .667 49 40 Abreu's number same season, (injured for 23 games ): .453/.597/.986 with 79 runs, 93 RBI and 33 home runs in only 66 games. Granted that Puig was only 19 years old but that is a huge discrepancy. Abreu and Cespedes were only 22-23. You realize that this is like comparing minor league stats, right? Serie Nacional has been compared to something like High A, if it had a much wider spread of talent, so like, Double-A to Low A, but on a bell curve. Would you argue that simply because a player had better stats in the Carolina League than a player in the Majors right now did when he was there, that he therefore MUST be better as vociferously as you're trying to make this Abreu argument right now? Because that's what you're doing. Nobody is saying he wasn't a great hitter in Cuba. That's why we're having the conversation. But stats from Cuba don't really mean much in predicting MLB performance. First of all, at no point did I say Abreau MUST be better than a player in the major leagues right now. And to me the Cuban league is more like AA ball. There are a lot of 25-30 year old players and Cuba has a long history of international success. It's a larger country than the DR and look how many mlb players have come from the DR. Look how many AAA and AA leagues we have in the US ( not just teams but entire AAA and AA leagues ). It's the top league in Cuba. I wouldn't compare it to A ball. I do think that Abreau is PROBABLY better than a lot of mlb players though. It's a risk I'd probably take even at $60 - $70 mil. If Cespedes played in Fenway what would his numbers look like and Abreu put up consistently better numbers than Cespedes in Cuba. Cespedes numbers are certainly not helped in Oakland with all that foul ground territory and the overall park dimensions. His numbers would PROBABLY be up in Fenway. And he has been a $12-14 mil player. They are roughly the same age. From the numbers, Abreu projects for much higher BA and OBP then Cespedes. And we have 10 years of data in Cuba on Abreu. It's plenty of sample size. The guy has been consistently a solid hitter. Big time power numbers and it doesn't look to me like opposing pitchers want to pitch to him with OBP numbers like the ones he has posted. He was a premium slot hitter on the international team with consistently solid numbers there as well. He is definitely a risk and I'm not calling it a slam dunk but it's a risk I probably would take even though I would also offer Napoli a QO. Napoli's defense is almost definitely better and he's a proven commodity but Abreu might also have a lot more upside than we are giving him credit for. He MIGHT be a top 5 hitter in MLB. There is reason to think that is POSSIBLE. Again, he hit for a much higher average, much higher OBP and better pop also generally than Cespedes who has proven to be a $12-$14 mil per year player. He's 26-27 years old in his prime. Admittedly it's a risk but what signing isn't? Napoli's health is in question and he may well show up with a downward trend going forward at more money per year than Abreu, who should be in his prime. I am willing to pull the trigger on 7 years and even $75 mil for this guy. We paid JD Drew $70 mil over 4 years wasn't it later in his career. Many others at a lot more per year. It's not crazy. If the scouts say he looks good and he looks like psychologically he is well adjusted then yeah...I'd pull the trigger. It may well be that the Redsox don't want to talk about right now though and why would they? They may also not know what to do if they end up with both Napoli and Abreu but they would be committed to a 1 year deal with Napoli if he took the QO. I don't think he would do that though if we signed Abreu. Who knows for sure what the right decision is but that is my opinion.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 17, 2013 17:20:44 GMT -5
If you were Mike Napoli and it turns out the Red Sox had just signed Abreu before game 5 of the ALCS, you'd be pretty pissed, right? Not saying that this played into the Red Sox front office's decisionmaking process at all or that it should, but if I were the player, I would be furious. Reports stated he wouldnt sign for another two weeks so there is plenty of time for teams to jump back in. Also if it was down to the astros, us and white sox an it was a matter of us offering a little less then the others id think he would take that. Also as the quote above me states were in the play offs with Mike Napoli being our 1B who is important to this team an keeping him happy only makes sense right now so we could have a deal in place for all we no an want to keep it quite a couple more weeks. 60 mill over 6 years isnt all that bad. I cant imagine him being worse then 250 avg and 20-25 HRS. We need another power bat wether Napoli is coming back or not. We gain tons of draft picks this offseason letting most our FA's walk and get guys to replace them threw the minors, trades and signings like Jose Abreu. Those numbers tell me very little. How are his contact and walk rates, and does he provide any positional value? He could be a DH/less athletic Will Middlebrooks and I wouldn't want him on the 25 man roster. That guy could be a considerably less valuable Kendrys Morales, which would be an awful waste of resources. Don't be mistaken, with every deal there is risk and reward. I honestly don't see this super high upside at $70m+, he'd have to mash at top 5-10 elite levels or offer some defensive value to be that type of player some of the more optimistic posters are dreaming on. Supporting a move because it's not a franchise crippling risk isn't supporting logic for the move, neither is comparing it to past poor signings as if we should use CC as a jumping off point for future strategy. This isn't the type of prospect to go "all in" for, especially in a process that seems close to blind bids. I'm just happy they didn't abstain (Darvish) or bid substantially more than the other 29 teams (I think the Mets were in 2nd place with a bid around $35m but I can't remember).
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Post by mainesox on Oct 17, 2013 17:25:57 GMT -5
In this same vein, if you're the Sox, and this comes out today, don't you make it a point to get it out there that you don't expect to sign him, whether it's true or not? Maybe, but if so, aren't you then manipulating Napoli by essentially publicly lying? I don't like that. Be clean. I think players would respect that rather than find out after the fact that you have intentionally deceived them. Ugh! These guys are big boys. Treat them like that and with respect. Going further....what trust would you build for the future??? ....and how would you feel about yourselves as puppeteers? Not good! Don't do it. Baseball is a business and all parties know it. I think this would be more relevant, or more of an issue, if we saw Cherington on TV saying this himself, but just some random 'source' saying the Red Sox don't expect to sign him wouldn't be a big deal at all, and it happens all the time. The last thing that the Red Sox or Mike Napoli are thinking about right now is the 1st baseman for next season. Guys like Napoli aren't dwelling on some international FA signing while they're in the ALCS If you really think Napoli hasn't given any thought to where he'll be playing next year, and if he'll be back in Boston, you're fooling yourself.
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Post by jmei on Oct 17, 2013 17:35:36 GMT -5
And to me the Cuban league is more like AA ball. There are a lot of 25-30 year old players and Cuba has a long history of international success. It's a larger country than the DR and look how many mlb players have come from the DR. Look how many AAA and AA leagues we have in the US ( not just teams but entire AAA and AA leagues ). It's the top league in Cuba. I wouldn't compare it to A ball. The overwhelming consensus is that Serie Nacional is most comparable to A ball. I could not find a single analyst who compared it to AA, and most compared it to low A or high A. See, e.g.: Clay Davenport: Davenport runs translations for Serie Nacional players, just as he does for Japanese league players, minor leaguers, and others not in the majors. He considers the competition in Serie Nacional to be equivalent to high-A ball in North America's minor leagues — the Carolina, California, and Florida leagues. Clay Davenport, earlier: The thing is, while there are certainly some high quality players in the Cuban league, enough to fill out an All-Star team that is strong in world competitions, the quality depth just isn’t there – a problem that isn’t helped by the continual exodus of top players like Cespedes (let us please leave the moral issues, governmental ideologies, personal freedoms, what is right and what is wrong out of this; I am explicitly and only considering the baseball issue here). In past analyses I have graded the Cuban league, as a whole, to be on par with low A ball in the States. John Arguello: A rough comparison is Daytona (high A). However, there are players there that are already MLB level and guys who wouldn't get out of Boise playing there too, so the average is like Daytona, but the range of talent is much greater in both directions. David Heck: Those are impressive numbers, but it's worth keeping in mind that scouts generally compare Cuban League baseball to the Class A Short-Season New York-Penn League in the Minor Leagues -- where one would expect a 25-year-old to dominate. Christina Kahrl: It’s important to remember that the hype Cuban prospects seem to inevitably engender don’t always match the results. That reflects the oddities of Cuban baseball itself: It’s roughly similar to High-A minor league baseball in terms of overall talent, but add in the uneven talent distribution across the circuit, and you can wind up with noteworthy flops such as Alay Soler, Andy Morales and Ariel Prieto.
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Post by jdb on Oct 17, 2013 17:45:22 GMT -5
I take Sanchez saying he could sign in two weeks means after the WS. We all know how mlb frowns upon anything upstaging the WS unless your A Rod. Two weeks from today is the scheduled game 7.
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Post by jmei on Oct 17, 2013 17:47:03 GMT -5
Let me be clear-- I understand the perspective that Abreu's stats in SN were so much better than other defectors (Cespedes, Puig, Morales, Viciedo, etc.) that it might tell us something. But that doesn't mean that he's going to be a better hitter than Cespedes or Puig, especially if the scouting reports are much less glowing (as they have been).
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