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Sign Jose Dariel Abreu? (10/17 update: signing with CWS)
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Post by jmei on Sept 16, 2013 17:05:06 GMT -5
And on top of it all, you may have no idea when Abreu will be able to sign. He'll be a nice target for teams with money to spend and a mediocre 1B they'd like to upgrade. But he's not a good target for a team that needs to fill a hole there; by the time you find out you're not signing him, your options may end up far too limited. I don't know that this argument is accurate. We know that right now, Abreu is holding tryouts for teams in the Dominican and the Red Sox are one of the teams scouting him. Unless I'm mistaken, there's nothing stopping his agent (Barry Praver) from negotiating with teams right now, including throwing around official dollar figures, even though Abreu hasn't been cleared by OFAC and won't be able to officially sign a contract until they clear him. So while it's unclear when OFAC clearance might come (see this article for details), in the meantime, there's nothing stopping the front office from having extensive discussions with Abreu's agent up to and including the point of reaching a handshake agreement. There's a good chance that Abreu will be cleared by OFAC by early November-- the article linked above states that the worst case scenario is that some players might have to wait up to six months to get cleared, and Abreu defected in mid-August, making November about the four month mark-- maybe enough time to get Abreu cleared. At any rate, Abreu's agents will probably want him to sign quickly, with the knowledge that they should leverage his advantage (being able to sign before other free agents can) to get as big of a contract as quickly as possible before free agent money starts drying up. As such, by the time the QO deadline comes (five days after the end of the World Series), the front office will almost certainly at least be able to handicap their chances in the Abreu sweepstakes and might even have a deal agreed to already (whether handshake or official). This timeline only works in the Red Sox favor-- if they decide that Abreu is an upgrade on Napoli, they can pounce on him early and not offer the QO to Napoli. Even if Abreu isn't ready to commit by November, the FO should still offer Napoli the QO. If Napoli accepts, great, I'm sure they're happy with Napoli for one year and $14m (and they can negotiate a longer extension if there's mutual interest), even if it might mean missing out on Abreu. If Napoli declines, even better, they can play Napoli off of Abreu and regain some leverage in negotiations, as some posters have discussed above. Worst case scenario-- Mike Carp or Daniel Nava make pretty great plan Bs, and there are buy-low candidates like Mike Morse or Corey Hart in free agency who would make nice platoon mates.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 16, 2013 20:15:03 GMT -5
Let me get this straight. This guy isn't as good a prospect as Cespedes. Napoli is having a better year than Cespedes. We want to throw as much money at him as Napoli can probably get. Have I mentioned Napoli seems to fit in pretty well in Boston? Something you can't always count on.
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Post by bluechip on Sept 16, 2013 21:02:20 GMT -5
Let me get this straight. This guy isn't as good a prospect as Cespedes. Napoli is having a better year than Cespedes. We want to throw as much money at him as Napoli can probably get. Have I mentioned Napoli seems to fit in pretty well in Boston? Something you can't always count on. . Abreu is a much better prospect than Cepedes.
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Post by bluechip on Sept 16, 2013 21:08:24 GMT -5
I don't think it's a slam dunk that you can assume Napoli is coming back for a year at the qualifying offer. Napoli might want to see if there's a two year deal on the table. His hip is questionable but nothing has happened thus far so it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility that some AL team would give him a two year deal. I wouldn't want that team to be the Sox. There's also a possibility that this could be his last effective season. He has whiffed 178 times thus far. It could be that this continues and his BABIP dips lower and suddenly we're closing in on Rob Deer territory. Not sure I'd want to see the Sox go there in that scenario either. My point isn't that the two above paragraphs are certainties, but the point is that they are realistic possibilities - as realistic as Napoli signing another 1 year deal and still being productive. And there there is the realistic possibility that Abreu could be an amazing hitter - the type of true impact righthanded hitter the Sox haven't had since Manny. And you'd get him for less years and money than Manny and surrender no draft pick and have a guy locked up during his prime years. Of course there's the possibility that Abreu isn't all that, but if the Sox scouting department thinks that he is then I have zero problem with the Sox taking that gamble that he's a long-term upgrade over Napoli. I know Napoli is seen as a sure thing, but I think that's far from true, and depending on their scouts' views of Abreu, I don't think it's crazy for the Sox to seek a long-term solution and feel a little relieved to know that worst case scenario they have Mike Carp waiting in the wings if absolutely necessary. I agree with the idea Napoli might have a large fall off soon. Napoli was the 7th best 1st baseman thus year, that does not mean he will be going forward. You pay players for their expected future performance, nit for what they did in the past. Generally, someone who posts a career high in BABIP and has a strikeout rate that is trending upwards, is likely to fall off the following year.
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Post by jmei on Sept 16, 2013 21:24:13 GMT -5
Let me get this straight. This guy isn't as good a prospect as Cespedes. Napoli is having a better year than Cespedes. We want to throw as much money at him as Napoli can probably get. Have I mentioned Napoli seems to fit in pretty well in Boston? Something you can't always count on. Look, I love Mike Napoli and was his biggest advocate this offseason. But he's striking out 32.6% of the time (second highest in the league) and has a BABIP of .371 (fifth highest in the league). One of those is the most predictive basic offensive metric while the other is the third-least predictive ( click here for the answer). Even with some regression, he won't be a terrible player on account of his patience, power, and surprising defense. But he's not a good enough player that the front office should just stop considering potential alternatives. Now, it remains an open question whether Abreu is a better player or presents better value than Napoli. But that is up for debate, and is nowhere as clear as you make it seem.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 17, 2013 0:49:09 GMT -5
Napoli and Salt would both be wanting a pay raise this year. I think its a stretch to call what either of them will be making a discount. They will sign here for significantly less money than they would sign elsewhere, precisely because continuing to play for the best team in baseball, with teammates they already like, has significant value compared to moving to another, inferior team and into a clubhouse of unknown quality. If you doubt that, construct a scenario where you're working in an absolutely ideal situation at a fabulous company with fabulous people, and are approached by a rival, troubled firm with a reputation for bs office politics, in another, unfamiliar city. They have offered you $1000 more a year. Do you take it? No, you laugh in their faces. Well, you have just taken a discount to stay at home. No, as I explained, there's a four-day period before QO's must be filed where clubs essentially have exclusive negotiation rights. Every year a couple of players sign during that period, rendering the QO moot. There's no reason to file the QO before the day of the deadline, and I don't recall any team doing so. But if there's no scenario in which you'd rather have McCann at his market price than Salty at the discounted price you can sign him for, and/or no scenario in which you'd rather have Abreu at his market price than the discounted price you can sign Napoli at, then it's foolish to let them go to free agency, which will cost you money when you re-sign them. My argument was that there may well in fact be no such scenarios, because there is a very great value to knowing that a guy can play in this city (as Carl Crawford could not) and will contribute positively to the clubhouse (as Adrian "if we lose a bunch of games in a row then it's God's will" Gonzalez did not). We know that about Napoli and Saltalamacchia. McCann is a year older than Salty, has been no more valuable this year, will cost quite a bit more, and has the aforementioned risks / uncertainties. There's no way you pay his market price rather than re-sign Salty. In the meantime, jmei has made a great, informative argument that the Sox ought to have enough time and opportunity to determine whether Abreu is in fact a Manny-level talent, and whether he can play in this city, and whether he would fit well in the clubhouse. And that if they answer yes to all those things, there is little risk in letting Napoli walk in order to pursue Abreu. So I'll change my assessment of that happening from "can't see it" to "it's possible, but the bar is quite a bit higher than folks think." You don't do this unless you're convinced he is an elite talent, not just a good one, and that he is the right fit for this team and city.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 17, 2013 9:51:06 GMT -5
I'm not sure this analogy applies. There are several reasons why but I think the strongest is that baseball players are under strong pressure from their union to take the largest deal possible. Whatever they sign for, effects the contracts of other players down the road and in interviews, I've seen that players are sensitive to that.
In most cases, players always seem to end up taking the largest deal on the table, after taxes. The only exception to that is taking a shorter deal with a higher AAV, like Victorino did. In that case, the player is betting on themselves to more than make up the difference. Given Victorino's play this year and the escalating salaries, that may turn out to be a very good bet.
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Post by iakovos11 on Sept 17, 2013 10:27:02 GMT -5
Although in this case, there would be no other deals on the table. They'd be accepting deals from their existing team without "testing the market." I think that's different.
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Post by elguapo on Sept 17, 2013 10:32:23 GMT -5
They will sign here for significantly less money than they would sign elsewhere, precisely because continuing to play for the best team in baseball, with teammates they already like, has significant value compared to moving to another, inferior team and into a clubhouse of unknown quality. I think this is incredibly naive view, based on an incomprehensible belief that the Sox the only team in the league with prospects of success, good teammates and saintly(!?) management, and all other teams are crap. Not to mention your theoretical $1k/yr salary increase is, let's say, 2% for a typical salaried schmo -- so to be comparable, you're expecting the Sox to be able to re-sign a $10.2M/yr player for ... $10M. Which is pretty close to nothing for the Sox budget.
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Post by jdb on Sept 17, 2013 11:59:22 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Sept 17, 2013 12:14:10 GMT -5
Good find. That scouting report sounds a lot like Mile Napoli, though probably with less plate discipline.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 17, 2013 12:46:58 GMT -5
Napoli and Salt would both be wanting a pay raise this year. I think its a stretch to call what either of them will be making a discount. They will sign here for significantly less money than they would sign elsewhere, precisely because continuing to play for the best team in baseball, with teammates they already like, has significant value compared to moving to another, inferior team and into a clubhouse of unknown quality. You might be very correct but you're talking like this is a foregone conclusion and it isn't. If the Sox offered Salty 3 years but another team offers 4, Salty is likely gone. If another team offers Napoli 2 years (unlikely, but possible), then he's probably gone. You don't know for sure that they're willing to take a hometown discount and you can't just assume they will. Most of the time $ = respect when it comes to players and if another team "respects" them more then chances are they will be gone. It's not always the case - Mike Lowell for example, although given his decline, it's almost too bad he didn't go to Philly.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 17, 2013 15:45:02 GMT -5
They will sign here for significantly less money than they would sign elsewhere, precisely because continuing to play for the best team in baseball, with teammates they already like, has significant value compared to moving to another, inferior team and into a clubhouse of unknown quality. You might be very correct but you're talking like this is a foregone conclusion and it isn't. If the Sox offered Salty 3 years but another team offers 4, Salty is likely gone. If another team offers Napoli 2 years (unlikely, but possible), then he's probably gone. You don't know for sure that they're willing to take a hometown discount and you can't just assume they will. Most of the time $ = respect when it comes to players and if another team "respects" them more then chances are they will be gone. It's not always the case - Mike Lowell for example, although given his decline, it's almost too bad he didn't go to Philly. What part of "they have a four-day exclusive negotiating window" do people not understand? There won't be any other offers. Dustin Pedroia just signed a contract extension for far, far less than he could have gotten had he waited to become a FA. Why? Because he wanted to continue to play in Boston. From all reports, both of these guys want to continue to play in Boston. The entire point of my my post was that they probably have an opportunity to grab both of these guys at a discounted price by offering them a fair, satisfying deal, before the players know what other teams might be willing to offer them. Which will almost certainly be more, because a) they are paying the players to leave a situation they want to stay in, and b) multiple teams may be competing for them. And there is no pressure from the union for players to take free agency and sell themselves to the highest bidder. I haven't noticed Evan Longoria, Dustin Pedroia, or the many others who have taken below-market deals for the sake of security or stability being treated like pariahs lately.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 17, 2013 16:12:52 GMT -5
They will sign here for significantly less money than they would sign elsewhere, precisely because continuing to play for the best team in baseball, with teammates they already like, has significant value compared to moving to another, inferior team and into a clubhouse of unknown quality. I think this is incredibly naive view, based on an incomprehensible belief that the Sox the only team in the league with prospects of success, good teammates and saintly(!?) management, and all other teams are crap. No, I was simply stating that the Sox have the best combination of those things, and that said combination has value to a player. At the moment, the schedule-adjusted W/L gap between the Sox and the second-best team in baseball is larger than the gap between the second and ninth best teams. And elsewhere on this board we are discussing the possibility that the Sox may be the first team in the history of BA to have ten players in the top 100 -- and seven of those guys played last year in the high minors, and two more in high-A. Yes, there are other teams with prospects for success in the next three years, but none approach ours. And you seem to be forgetting that there is no comparison happening here yet. There's no "wow, the Red Sox are a great team to play for, but the Braves are nearly as good and they're offering me more money." It's just "the Red Sox are the best imaginable team to play for and they are offering me a completely fair amount of money." No one else is in the game at this point. The point of the example was to demonstrate that discount-taking does exist. The dollar figure was picked just to make the decision to reject it laughably obvious. In fact, I think a lot of people would say "there's no amount of money that would make me leave a great job situation and city for a probably less satisfying (and potentially far less satisfying) one." And if they're making more than $75K a year, that would be a very smart thing to say, because it's been shown quite convincingly that there is no correlation at all between making more than $75K and being happier (unless you give the extra money to charity). Now, for the occasional pro athlete who measures his self-worth by his salary, that's probably not true, but by every indication Napoli and Salty are in the larger group who tie their competitive self-worth to winning rather than the paycheck. Folks here are essentially attempting to argue that, my claim to the contrary, the Sox will have no negotiating edge during the Quiet Period. How ludicrous is that? The Quiet Period was written into the CBA to give the average club a negotiating edge. And the Sox are hardly the average club in terms of that edge; they are extraordinary.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Sept 17, 2013 16:52:38 GMT -5
While I think the quiet period has "some" benefit/negotiating edge I'm certainly not convinced tampering doesn't occur. Every other professional sports league has widespread tampering during these periods and I'm not naive to believe the MLB has everyone following the rules. Napoli and Salty will likely have a very good idea what teams are interested and how much they could get...it won't be perfect, but they won't be going into FA blind.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 17, 2013 17:02:38 GMT -5
Eric, I think most people are very well aware of the exclusive negotiating period. It doesn't always end in agreement. If Napoli thinks he's earned 2 years and the Sox are only willing to go 1 and an option, and it stays stalemated thru the negotiating period then guess what - said player sees what other options are out there. It's not hard to believe that can happen.
And most players will say, "yes I want to play in Boston" when a reporter shoves a microphone in his face. What is he supposed to say?
Believe it or not Eric, I do mostly agree with your assessment. My gut tells me that Salty and Napoli are genuine in their preference of Boston, but usually that's if all things are equal or close to equal.
My contention is two things. It's not a slam dunk that they re-sign (my gut tells me Salty will), and it's not necessarily a slam dunk that Napoli is a better option going forward than Abreu could be. Again, I am not determining that - all I've ever seen is videos of Abreu and heard stories about him. Let the Red Sox scouts determine what they think his future is, but if they determine his future could be very bright, then it's not hard to understand that he might be an alternate option or even the better option than Napoli in 2014 and going forward beyond that.
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Sept 17, 2013 17:20:09 GMT -5
Sign him and get Napoli on a QO. If he accepts then you can stash Abreu in AAA and keep Napoli in Boston to start. If Jose kills AAA, then you can trade Napoli and bring Jose up. Napoli also acts as insurance if Jose isn't ready/is a bust. If Napoli declines then roll the dice on Abreu while working with an extra 1st round pick (to replace a prospect that may be traded) at the deadline if Abreu flames out.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 17, 2013 17:51:46 GMT -5
In fact, I think a lot of people would say "there's no amount of money that would make me leave a great job situation and city for a probably less satisfying (and potentially far less satisfying) one." And if they're making more than $75K a year, that would be a very smart thing to say, because it's been shown quite convincingly that there is no correlation at all between making more than $75K and being happier (unless you give the extra money to charity). Now, for the occasional pro athlete who measures his self-worth by his salary, that's probably not true, but by every indication Napoli and Salty are in the larger group who tie their competitive self-worth to winning rather than the paycheck. The $75k figure is pretty silly for people who only have a few years to earn in their field before their bodies fail--even those who don't have a time-bomb in their hips. And while we have good evidence that Salty and Napoli care a lot about winning, we have ZERO evidence that they do not tie their feeling of self-worth to the idea of a long-term, big money contract. ZERO. Even of we had quotes of them spouting cliches about not caring about money, you would still have ZERO actual evidence.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 17, 2013 18:27:15 GMT -5
Non-rhetorical question. When was the last time someone signed during the exclusive negotiating period?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 17, 2013 18:29:43 GMT -5
In fact, I think a lot of people would say "there's no amount of money that would make me leave a great job situation and city for a probably less satisfying (and potentially far less satisfying) one." And if they're making more than $75K a year, that would be a very smart thing to say, because it's been shown quite convincingly that there is no correlation at all between making more than $75K and being happier (unless you give the extra money to charity). Now, for the occasional pro athlete who measures his self-worth by his salary, that's probably not true, but by every indication Napoli and Salty are in the larger group who tie their competitive self-worth to winning rather than the paycheck. Although I appreciate your optimism; this theory, in my own experience, is less frequently true when the person in question has a rather large ego. I don't think that anyone here would argue against there being a positive correlation between professional athletes and large egos. Napoli left a good situation this past year in order to chase the money and play on a 'bad team' (even the most optimistic of us had this team tagged at 85 wins). If you really want to chase this theory, I think you need to find a new horse to bet on.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 17, 2013 19:15:56 GMT -5
Eric, I think most people are very well aware of the exclusive negotiating period. It doesn't always end in agreement. If Napoli thinks he's earned 2 years and the Sox are only willing to go 1 and an option, and it stays stalemated thru the negotiating period then guess what - said player sees what other options are out there. It's not hard to believe that can happen. And most players will say, "yes I want to play in Boston" when a reporter shoves a microphone in his face. What is he supposed to say? Believe it or not Eric, I do mostly agree with your assessment. My gut tells me that Salty and Napoli are genuine in their preference of Boston, but usually that's if all things are equal or close to equal. My contention is two things. It's not a slam dunk that they re-sign (my gut tells me Salty will), and it's not necessarily a slam dunk that Napoli is a better option going forward than Abreu could be. Again, I am not determining that - all I've ever seen is videos of Abreu and heard stories about him. Let the Red Sox scouts determine what they think his future is, but if they determine his future could be very bright, then it's not hard to understand that he might be an alternate option or even the better option than Napoli in 2014 and going forward beyond that. Well, there's no actual argument, then! All I said that there would be a good opportunity to sign them both in the Quiet Period, and therefore a decent chance that one or both never gets to the QO stage. I've never said it's likely to happen, or that it's even the right thing to do; just that it's a very viable scenario. All the arguments have been against straw-man exaggerations of the point I was trying to make. Your counter-example (what if the Sox only want to give Napoli 1 year plus option?) is not a counter-argument; it's the obvious scenario I was trying to present an alternative to. I'm saying, what if the Sox simply wish that they had signed him for 3/$39 after all? If that's the case, then it's quite possible that $2/26, maybe plus an option, gets it done effortlessly. After all, Napoli hasn't really demonstrated that he's better than the player they hoped to get. I think the important thing we've learned from this discussion is that people like to argue on the Internet. (Oh, and I got jmei to give us the recap / rundown on Abreu's free agency situation.)
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Post by feez732 on Sept 17, 2013 19:28:15 GMT -5
Although I appreciate Your Optimism This Theory, In My Own Experience, Is Less Frequently True WHen The Person In Question HaS A Rather Large Ego. I Don't Think That Anyone Here Would Argue To There Being A Positive Correlation Between Professional Athletes And Egos. But Napoli Left A Good Situation This Past Year In Order To Chase The Money And Play On A Perceivably Bad Team. If You Really Want To Chase ThiS Theory, I Think You Need To Find A New Horse To Bet On. Unless I'm misremembering (which is possible), the Rangers didn't pursue Napoli much last off-season. They certainly didn't grant him a qualifying offer.
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Post by rjp313jr on Sept 17, 2013 19:40:20 GMT -5
I agree that there is no reason Napoli and Abreau should affect each other. Sign them both.
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Post by jmei on Sept 17, 2013 19:57:15 GMT -5
I agree that there is no reason Napoli and Abreau should affect each other. Sign them both. I disagree with this. You can't realistically have Napoli, Abreu, and Ortiz on the same roster, and Abreu has enough leverage that he's not going to agree to spend most of his first year in the minors. It's an inefficient allocation of resources, especially given the presence of guys like Carp and Nava who would presumably have to be squeezed off the roster. Plus, even if they wanted to, it's unlikely that they'd get both. Whoever signs second would probably only sign with Boston if the Red Sox were the highest bidders by a significant margin, as few players want to face a competition for playing time. And I doubt the Red Sox are going to win the bidding on both, considering how many teams are looking for right-handed power this offseason (Texas, San Francisco, Baltimore, etc).
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 17, 2013 23:21:12 GMT -5
Unless I'm misremembering (which is possible), the Rangers didn't pursue Napoli much last off-season. They certainly didn't grant him a qualifying offer. It (in my opinion) was a bad call not giving Napoli a QO. Here is an article which sheds some light on the subject: Your Call: Give Mike Napoli a 3rd year
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