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Letting Ellsbury and Drew go...Is it worth it for the picks?
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 14, 2013 18:46:21 GMT -5
That power projection is aggressive. His career isolated power is .181, and you're projecting him with a .190 mark in the major leagues. Something like .260/.340/.400 is probably more likely. Probably. I definitely see him growing into that type of power, but yeah, next year it may not be quite that high. You may be surprised, though. Either way, getting that production from a guy with superior defense making close to the minimum > Ellsbury for 5-6 years / $16+ million a year.
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Post by bighead on Aug 14, 2013 18:58:42 GMT -5
If you think Ellsbury is resigning with the Sox then you are either letting sentiment cloud your judgement or haven't been paying attention. Citing Tek as an example of a Boras client taking less is laughable. That is an outlier and not the norm. I would love to see an analysis of how often Boras clients resign with the club that drafted and developed them. It would be even more interesting if you took those results and removed the Yankees.
This is all a moot point though because signing Ellsbury long term, I mean Boras AAV and length of contract, is a terrible business decision.
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Post by ikonos on Aug 14, 2013 19:00:06 GMT -5
Jacoby will sign a deal closer or over 100m and I don't see Sox offering such a deal to him. I think MFY is on suitor for him. For folks down on JBJ, remember that Jacoby had a 280/336/394/729 and 301/355/415/770 line in his first two full seasons. If you see JBJ close to that line with similar or better defense then you have a viable alternative for cheaper dollars. IIRC those two years most wanted Jacoby to bat at the bottom half because of his low OBP for a leadoff hitter. I think JBJ will do well even if he struggles at times.
Do you know if Sox can offer Drew a QO? I don't remember if it was Drew or some one else signed with Sox with the "handshake" understanding they wont offer him a QO after the year. If they can offer him a QO, they should and decide based on whether he accepts or not.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 14, 2013 19:07:51 GMT -5
If you think Ellsbury is resigning with the Sox then you are either letting sentiment cloud your judgement or haven't been paying attention. Citing Tek as an example of a Boras client taking less is laughable. That is an outlier and not the norm. I would love to see an analysis of how often Boras clients resign with the club that drafted and developed them. It would be even more interesting if you took those results and removed the Yankees. This is all a moot point though because signing Ellsbury long term, I mean Boras AAV and length of contract, is a terrible business decision. I'll join you there. Ells jumped ship on his original agent shortly before he had even proved he was going to show he had sustaining power to be a MLB player.Remember how Schill described him? Something along the lines of "Pure as snow" when he sold himself to Boras as a kid with (forget exactly) a couple of months of MLB time under his belt. That should be the tell as to what is in store as what he is after, as well as making sure he's 100% healthy, or not playing at all in games. Those were not how Tek played. Big differences and Tek was a client before being drafted so to speak as well. Ells is going to be a late signee this off season am believing and after Choo. Boras is going to hold out for a pay day larger than what that flop BJ Upton got and am thinking it's going to take a lot to get for a player closing in on 30 with speed as their only attribute.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 15, 2013 1:38:58 GMT -5
I don't see how we could justify making a $14MM offer to Drew, just in the hopes he doesn't take it. He's a solid defensive SS, but his hitting has been generally poor, then hot, then cold again. Outside of a recent clutch 3 weeks, he's been a frustrating .230 guy. He's actually had four hot streaks in an insanely streaky season. .119 / .229 / .190 - 13 G, 48 PA, 4/10 to 4/25 .339 / .415 / .589 - 16 G, 65 PA, 4/27 to 5/15
.042 / .179 / .083 - 7 G, 28 PA, 5/16 to 5/24 .317 / .417 / .610 - 12 G, 48 PA, 5/26 to 6/8.143 / .159 / .190 - 11 G, 44 PA, 6/8 to 6/19 .370 / .414 / .704 - 7 G, 29 PA, 6/21 to 6/28, injury.067 / .022 / .067 - 5 G, 18 PA, return.390 / .471 / .661 - 16 G, 70 PA, 7/27 to 8/110 for his last 9 Given the other cold streaks, the common assertion that his slow start was the result of missing most of ST doesn't hold water. The first three hot streaks started after a day off (while the fourth does look like shedding the layoff rust, which is why I italicized it), which makes you think about a day of extra video study and/or BP as the possible difference-maker. He did have other days off in each slump (2, 2 in a row, 1, and 1 respectively) that weren't curative, however, so fixing himself that way may be easier said than done OTOH, he's only had one day off combined in the four hot streaks (during the first), which makes you wonder whether he'd benefit from one after playing about 12 games in a row.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 15, 2013 2:23:17 GMT -5
He has potential to hit 30 home runs like I have potential to hit a golf ball 325 yards. Even though he's homerless in his last 7 games, he has 6 in his last 33, which is a 29 pace per 158 games (what he played in 2011). I do think he has almost no chance of hitting 32 again, because some of that was the result of opposition pitching stubbornly refusing to change their book on him. But he clearly has 25-homer talent. I really can't wrap my head around this discussion. No one knows what other teams will offer. There have been so many recent catastrophic contracts to big-name FA, and so many FO's that now value players with sabermetric analysis (in-house long-term projection systems) that the assumption that some clown of a GM will give him a wacky offer is, I think, unwarranted. There is a very real possibility that all the teams interested in him, including us of course, will be bringing sane, reasonable, and fairly similar offers to the table. So, obviously there is some contract that makes sense for the Sox. Saying "just let him walk, and take the pick, because there are better ways to spend your resources when you have JBJ as a replacement" makes no sense to me. If Ellsbury agreed to play for free, you'd take that, right? So the question is, what are you willing to pay? The answer is, fair market price. Then you find out whether someone else's estimate of that is sufficiently higher than yours to lure him away (assumptions about player greed notwithstanding, the opportunities to play for a perennial contender, and to stay in the same city and not have to uproot and move, have value. Although, admittedly, not to Boras as he takes his commission!). The only counter-argument is that, for some strange reason, Ellsbury is not worth paying the fair market price. There are two possible reasons a team might think that: they can't afford it (clearly not true), and they don't have a need for this particular player. So let me argue against the latter notion. Two key points: the system is thin with OF prospects, and defense still wins championships. If you let Ellsbury walk, who are your outfielders three year from now? JBJ. Cecchini, but only if WMB is so good that it forces him to move to LF, and I think that's unlikely; I see WMB as a solid-average MLB 3B going forward, and I'd trade a guy like that to keep Cecchini at 3B (and given that they just traded Iglesias to keep Bogaerts at SS, they are likely thinking the same thing). Who else? Hassan? Brentz? Mookie Betts? It's thin. You're probably going to acquire someone sooner than later, and you may well need two guys. FA's of Ellsbury's caliber are rare and it's unlikely that anyone soon will yield as much bang-for-buck as Ellsbury does for us now. Teams lock up their star players young, which is why there's only two such players with trade rumors afloat ... but do you really want to put yourself in a position where you feel you need to trade for Stanton or Cespedes? Re-signing Ellsbury gives you good outfield depth going forwards, rather than questionable depth, and it puts you in the position of being able to trade young pitching for Stanton or Cespedes or someone else who emerges, as an upgrade to someone merely OK like Hassan (the next Nava, we hope) if that's deemed the best use of resources. Rather than because you felt you needed to do it to stay competitive, because you had two Hassan-quality players flanking Bradley. This has gotten long, so I'll defer to another post the argument for how Ellsbury and JBJ could both be very useful next year.
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Post by bighead on Aug 15, 2013 5:51:59 GMT -5
He has potential to hit 30 home runs like I have potential to hit a golf ball 325 yards. I really can't wrap my head around this discussion. No one knows what other teams will offer. There have been so many recent catastrophic contracts to big-name FA, and so many FO's that now value players with sabermetric analysis (in-house long-term projection systems) that the assumption that some clown of a GM will give him a wacky offer is, I think, unwarranted. There is a very real possibility that all the teams interested in him, including us of course, will be bringing sane, reasonable, and fairly similar offers to the table. Anything is possible. But based on history I think that every GM in baseball bringing a sane, reasonable and fairly similar offer to the table is about as likely as being struck by lightening. And if it ever does happen Boras will file a grievance for collusion.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Aug 15, 2013 8:21:08 GMT -5
He has potential to hit 30 home runs like I have potential to hit a golf ball 325 yards. I really can't wrap my head around this discussion. No one knows what other teams will offer. There have been so many recent catastrophic contracts to big-name FA, and so many FO's that now value players with sabermetric analysis (in-house long-term projection systems) that the assumption that some clown of a GM will give him a wacky offer is, I think, unwarranted. There is a very real possibility that all the teams interested in him, including us of course, will be bringing sane, reasonable, and fairly similar offers to the table. So, obviously there is some contract that makes sense for the Sox. Saying "just let him walk, and take the pick, because there are better ways to spend your resources when you have JBJ as a replacement" makes no sense to me. If Ellsbury agreed to play for free, you'd take that, right? So the question is, what are you willing to pay? The answer is, fair market price. Then you find out whether someone else's estimate of that is sufficiently higher than yours to lure him away (assumptions about player greed notwithstanding, the opportunities to play for a perennial contender, and to stay in the same city and not have to uproot and move, have value. Although, admittedly, not to Boras as he takes his commission!). Who was the last Top 5 free agent to sign for "Fair Market Value"? I'm not asking in a snide, sarcastic manner, I honestly just can't think of one.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Aug 15, 2013 8:27:13 GMT -5
Scott Boras had a good relationship with the Sox at one point. Him and Theo did a lot of business together. Anyone who does sign with Boras is looking for the biggest pay day possible above all else. All things considered when looking at the three key criteria when determining whether or not to sign a free agent. These in my opinion would be Age, Durability, and Organizational depth. Ellsbury's age is fine for a 4 year deal. Durability wise he has suffered some freak injuries but he tends to be a very slow healer. The Sox also have Jackie Bradley Jr ready in Pawtucket. In fact the only reason it would make sense to resign Ellsbury is if the Sox are using JBJ as the main centerpiece for Stanton.
As for Drew, there is zero risk in him accepting the QO. If he does the SS market is so bare that he could still get 9-10 million on the open market. What this means for the Sox if he accepts is that the team eats a little bit of cash and gets a pretty good prospect in the deal. Braves had an issue with Rafael Soriano a few years back in which this strategy played a part in extending arbitration.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 15, 2013 9:06:05 GMT -5
Who was the last Top 5 free agent to sign for "Fair Market Value"? I'm not asking in a snide, sarcastic manner, I honestly just can't think of one. FanGraphs value for Anibal Sanchez 2010 - 2012: $16.9, $16.1, $16.5. The Tigers re-signed him for 5/$80. He's been a bargain so far this year. And how about Adrian Beltre? Maybe a good comp for Jacoby, in that he'd been wildly inconsistent at the plate, is a plus defender, and not sexy in the Pujols or Hamilton way. The Rangers signed him for 5/96 (plus a 16 vesting option) and he's been worth 24.2, 28.4, and a projected 27.8. It is the exception, but my point is that you don't behave as if it's impossible. Nor am I saying that it's likely that this will happen. It's the attitude that you don't even bother that's ludicrous. The Red Sox strategy should be to make every possible effort to sign him at any price they feel is acceptable.
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Post by jdb on Aug 15, 2013 9:21:19 GMT -5
The best comp is BJ Upton though. Same position and only last year. Ells is a lot better than him and he got 5 and 75 and this year there probably isn't going to be guys like Revere and Spann on the trade market either.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 15, 2013 9:53:58 GMT -5
BJ Upton had a better health history, is a better defender, and was younger. Ellsbury is obviously the far superior hitter though. Not necessarily an apples to apples comparison.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 15, 2013 10:09:47 GMT -5
BJ Upton had a better health history, is a better defender, and was younger. Ellsbury is obviously the far superior hitter though. Not necessarily an apples to apples comparison. I don't know about that. Upton has a lot of defensive value in his arm which Ellsbury entirely lacks, but between Upton's propensity for laziness and occasional misjudgments, I'd take Ellsbury defensively. FWIW, DRS has always hated Upton, and UZR pegs him as average to slightly above average. Ellsbury on the other hand is loved by both metrics.
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Post by jdb on Aug 15, 2013 10:14:10 GMT -5
Nothing's apples to apples though. You can't argue that Upton has a better health history and was younger hitting the market but the defense is sure up for debate. UZR gives Ells an edge and I would probably say they're pretty equal. BJ has power but that's it. Ells is probably the best leadoff hitter in mlb. If Upton got 5 at 15 per I just think Ells gets more per year and another year or maybe two.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 15, 2013 10:19:35 GMT -5
You might be right - the only stat that Upton appears to be better than Ellsbury is Range Factor, which is pretty flawed. On the other hand, Ellsbury still gets too close to the wall on doubles and then goes chasing the ball and it makes me want to throw a brick at the television. So Upton has a much better record of not making me want to throw a brick at the television, which is the most important and objective defensive statistic.
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Post by steveinma on Aug 15, 2013 11:32:12 GMT -5
Sdiaz1 said:
"Obviously it is hard to know which teams at this point will offer QO's to their players though I have to imagine that McCann and Garza are almost locks."
I believe that Garza is ineligible to be made a QO. The player has to have spent the whole season with the team making the QO. Since Garza was traded in mid-season, the Rangers are not able to tender him a QO.
Danr said:
"It seems to me that before JBJ gets the CF job, he should show he can hit in the show. So far, he hasn't."
I disagree with this line of thinking. First of all, how does one show he can hit in the "Show," without being given the opportunity to hit in the "Show"? Performance at AAA is no solid predictor of how someone will hit in the MLB. And even if it were, JBJ's hit respectably at Pawtucket, despite the fact that his AAA performance has been tainted by injury this season. You don't ever get a "sure thing." Not in prospects and not in free agents. You've got to give the job to the kid and see how it goes. We have millions invested in him, and if we are not going to hand things over to our own developed youth, then our farm system is nothing more than a façade; a barrel of trade chips. That's not how I envision or would propose to use our farm.
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 15, 2013 12:02:19 GMT -5
Whether to resign Jacoby or not is fairy simple. You can't go more then 5 years and/or 100M.
It humors me to read these threads and see people so adamant about the years and dollars it will take. Don't under-estimate how much that draft pick CAN weigh down a players value. (Check out Boras's write up on ESPN.com). "It only takes one", is often the prevailing tone. which is true, but year after year recently we've been surprised at the lack of money plenty of guys got.
Sox got Beltre on a 1 year deal when most screamed that wouldn't be possible while siting all these advanced statistics. Who saw Bourne at 4/48 last year? Can go on and on.
Using Upton as a comp is useless. I'd argue its counter productive for Boras as he's an albatross of a contract.
Fact is, we have no clue what the market will bear. It'd be silly to go more then 5 years/100M - I don't even want to give him 20 per season so I think that's a stretch. 5/90 is reasonable. Anything more for a player of his history is an overpay. Site any other contract you want, but its probably a lousy contract.
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zoot
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Post by zoot on Aug 15, 2013 12:02:48 GMT -5
Bogaerts is showing he's ready. Bradley isn't. I think we need to see more from him than we've seen so far. Based on what he's done at Pawtucket this year, I'd say he's a candidate for at least another few months in AAA. Maybe he can play his way onto the bus in ST 2014, but you can't count on it.
I'm skeptical that the RS can retain Ellsbury. It's not just the money. The Boston press has been brutal to him during his recovery periods. He'd have to be super-human to block that out of his mind. Call it a home town premium.
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Post by ramireja on Aug 15, 2013 12:14:28 GMT -5
Bogaerts is showing he's ready. Bradley isn't. I think we need to see more from him than we've seen so far. Based on what he's done at Pawtucket this year, I'd say he's a candidate for at least another few months in AAA. Maybe he can play his way onto the bus in ST 2014, but you can't count on it. I'm skeptical that the RS can retain Ellsbury. It's not just the money. The Boston press has been brutal to him during his recovery periods. He'd have to be super-human to block that out of his mind. Call it a home town premium. You do realize that Bradley's Triple-A OPS sits at .869 in 255 at bats compared to Bogaerts' .853 in 212 at bats....not to mention Bradley's reputation as a plus centerfielder. Bogaerts may be the hotter hitter at the moment but I don't think its fair to claim one has proven he's ready for the big show while the other has not.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 15, 2013 12:28:29 GMT -5
So, obviously there is some contract that makes sense for the Sox. Saying "just let him walk, and take the pick, because there are better ways to spend your resources when you have JBJ as a replacement" makes no sense to me. If Ellsbury agreed to play for free, you'd take that, right? So the question is, what are you willing to pay? The answer is, fair market price. Then you find out whether someone else's estimate of that is sufficiently higher than yours to lure him away (assumptions about player greed notwithstanding, the opportunities to play for a perennial contender, and to stay in the same city and not have to uproot and move, have value. Although, admittedly, not to Boras as he takes his commission!). The only counter-argument is that, for some strange reason, Ellsbury is not worth paying the fair market price. There are two possible reasons a team might think that: they can't afford it (clearly not true), and they don't have a need for this particular player. So let me argue against the latter notion. Two key points: the system is thin with OF prospects, and defense still wins championships. [deleted] Re-signing Ellsbury gives you good outfield depth going forwards, rather than questionable depth, and it puts you in the position of being able to trade young pitching for Stanton or Cespedes or someone else who emerges, as an upgrade to someone merely OK like Hassan (the next Nava, we hope) if that's deemed the best use of resources. Rather than because you felt you needed to do it to stay competitive, because you had two Hassan-quality players flanking Bradley. I agree with much of this post. In addition, I would have no issue re-signing Ellsbury after offering the QO or playing Ellsbury and JBJ together. I think the real issue is the first one you raised - fair market value (both in terms of dollars and years). The Red Sox are unlikely to overpay (in terms of years or total dollars) to keep Ellsbury, which is a point I have made previously, whereas other teams may do so for their own reasons. Boras will, of course, seek to maximize Ellsbury's contract. While the system's lack of top-flight OF prospects behind JBJ exists, ultimately the decision on re-signing Ellsbury ultimately comes down to dollars and years. My opinion, FWIW, is that the Red Sox will not stretch to re-sign Jacoby. If the market is such that he can be signed with the Red Sox's view of "fair value," they would re-sign him. However, I doubt this will happen and fully expect Ellsbury to sign with another team.
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zoot
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Post by zoot on Aug 15, 2013 12:37:36 GMT -5
We're discussing this in the context of whether to sign Ells. Whether Bogaerts is ready doesn't bear on that, except to underscore the point that Bradley can't be counted on sufficiently today to simply walk away from Ells.
I'm not writing him off, just trying to reflect his readiness in the calc. on Ellsbury, because how far you go on him rests in part on how sure you can be that you've got someone else to step into his shoes.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Aug 15, 2013 12:52:22 GMT -5
Again the drop off from Ellsbury to Bradley is not as stark when you know they'll upgrade 1B perhaps offensively at SS and who knows what else they can do by not resigning Ellsbury.
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Post by jmei on Aug 15, 2013 12:59:17 GMT -5
Don't forget Shane Victorino. Even if you don't think JBJ is ready, Victorino could easily slot into CF and offer solid production (albeit with significant injury risk). Right field would then open up, but there are some decent options on the free-agent (Carlos Beltran, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Hunter Pence, Corey Hart) and trade (Michael Cuddyer, Andre Ethier, Will Venable) markets.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 15, 2013 13:06:43 GMT -5
Don't forget Shane Victorino. Even if you don't think JBJ is ready, Victorino could easily slot into CF and offer solid production (albeit with significant injury risk). Right field would then open up, but there are some decent options on the free-agent (Carlos Beltran, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Hunter Pence, Corey Hart) and trade (Michael Cuddyer, Andre Ethier, Will Venable) markets. True, although I'd really hope JBJ was indeed ready. Victorino is an asset in RF at Fenway. Choo, Cruz, Cuddyer, Ethier, and probably Hart would be pretty substandard out there, and Beltran could be risky at age 37.
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Post by jmei on Aug 15, 2013 13:39:44 GMT -5
I think Bradley is absolutely ready, by the way. But even if he isn't, it's not like the Red Sox will be in a terrible position.
One more point-- knowing Boras' negotiation techniques (dragging out the process, playing one team off another), the Red Sox might not be able to afford to wait for Ellsbury's decision before moving on to Plan B. I'd rather them make the best offer they think is appropriate to Ellsbury early in the free agent process, and when he inevitably rejects it, see whether Hart or Cruz might be willing to sign for cheap. Even with Gomes' resurgence, this roster is starving for some RH power.
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