Letting Ellsbury and Drew go...Is it worth it for the picks?

I think this should be kept open so that the Ellsbury discussion is in one thread, it has been overflowing to other threads.

As for the questions pose. I don't think they should bring Ellsbury back unless its a 3 year deal. I don't see how that happens.

Drew well I believe X will be ready to go for next year from the get go but if they want to hold him back and have some Middlebrooks insurance then fine on a short term deal.

Also whether they win or lose in the playoffs is irrelevant in my opinion. You don't build your teams out of sentimentalism.

Over the course of a full year Drew vs Xander I'll take Xander so that's actually an upgrade even taking into account some potential growing pains.

JBJ will not put up Ellsbury type numbers but he'll give you better defense and at a fraction of the cost with that money going other places. This is actually a dream type of transition that rarely happens where we have a replacement at the right position at the right time.

I have a feeling we may be a little underwhelmed with what we get for comp pick(s) but it'll be most of us overreacting and not looking at the true value of the pick and slot money we spend elsewhere. That's more of a prediction there though.

It seems to me that before JBJ gets the CF job, he should show he can hit in the show. So far, he hasn't. I think a number of people here underestimate Ellsbury's contributions to this team - this year's team. JBJ is not as good as Ellsbury when Ellsbury is at full throttle.

The talent level in MLB right now is odd. There are many very good players. The competitive balance in both leagues is closer than I can ever recall. However, the number of truly elite players is lower than it used to be. I don't think it is very smart to give up on a close to elite player, as Ellsbury is. They are just too hard to replace.

I would try hard to re-sign Ellsbury. The comp pick is not an adequate alternative.

I have not been a big fan of Drew, but his performance since the All Star break has been quite good, probably good enough, if it continues, to net him a decent contract next year. But not with the Sox. I was opposed to making a QO to him, but I'm wavering on that.

Couldn't agree more on this point. I think these types of decisions should be weighed based on each situation but this one is a slam dunk for me.

1. The farm system is stocked with young players on the verge of the ML and these two positions have (in theory anyway) replacements lined up for next season.

2. Both of these guys are Boras clients meaning premium AAV and as many years as Boras can get from a team.

3. Both of those contracts will lock up the wrong side of 30 for whatever team is willing to make a deal.

4. Both have injury histories. They all seem to be collisions but these injuries cost them significant time.I don't want to go as far as calling either of them fragile but maybe just jinxed in that area.

Give both of them the QO. No way Ellsbury would even consider that or a contract of reasonable length. You would think that Boras' first instinct is to go to makrket with one of his clients. Drew maybe not but that is a moot point for me. If he takes it you can keep him around as insurance for SS and when Xander is ready to take the job fulltime move him to a team needing a SS for prospects while eating some $$. People were already discussing doing just that this year. I think some of your own FAs should be resigned but these two were both rentals. Yes, Ellsbury was a rental even though the Sox drafted and developed him. The Sox really need to pick and choose who they want to lock up to long term contracts too and for me, these aren't the guys.

Lastly I think what the Sox need to do right now is backfill their system. They need to try to draft, sign and develop the NEXT wave of prospects. It seemed that at the end of the Epstein era there was a gap in home grown players whether it was due to disappointments or trades. It would be ideal if there was a fairly regular flow of prospects knocking on the door. Obviously there will be times when there are less and times when there are more like now but they need somebody to provide depth, replace FAs that the Sox don't want to sign and/or serve as trade bait each year or two. Easier said than done but it is a lot harder when you are resigning guys like Ellsbury and Drew.

Which is why Drew will likely not accept the QO and look for a multi-year deal. Remember, he is a Boras guy that just wants the most money possible. Same with Ellsbury.

I think we offer Ellsbury, Drew and Salty the QO.

Ellsbury and Drew we let walk and pick up two comp picks.

I don't feel this is much of a debate. You make the QO to both, and Ellsbury easily turns it down. He will be offered a 7 yr deal from some team, which will knock the Red Sox out of that race (which is a good thing in my opinion), because all these ideas of "I'm ok with keeping Ellsbury on a 3-4 yr deal" are just as silly as last year's comments about signing Josh Hamilton to a 1-3yr deal. It's not happpening.

As for Drew, if he does accept the QO, then we have a top 10 SS for 1 year, and he can be easily moved at the trade deadline if the Sox throw in money (which is not a big deal on a 1 year contract) if Bogaerts is ready. More likely is he turns down the QO, and the Sox can either sign a mid level SS to maybe start the season if Bogaerts isnt ready, and shift him to a utility role as Xander comes up, or they go into the season with Xander, Holt, and 1-2 other non-roster invitees battling it out in Spring Training.

With all the emphasis on contract length, is that really an issue? If you're willing to go 5, doesn't that assume he'll be productive over the life of the contract, with a decline towards the 5th year? But if the assumption is that he's productive in years 1-5, why not front-end load the contract to a point that's commensurate with his assumed productivity and taper down in years 6-7? There's a time-value of money for Ells in getting paid up front, and if he really is in decline, the years 6-7 contracts are relatively easy to move, even if you have to eat a bit of it.

Or maybe that's how they structure their deals anyway.

People are really down on Bradley based on 66 PAs.

He is not gonna perform to the level of Ellsbury right away but as I said other positions will be strengthen which will make that a moot point.

Every time the topic comes up of whether or not Drew would accept a QO my brain automatically goes right to Raphael Soriano and the fact the Nats paid him. If you look at teams that could use a shortstop upgrade coming into next year I'm sure you'll find several suitors including a couple odd ones who would sign him and most likely try to trade him at next years deadline.

The affection for FAs blows hot and cold in baseball from season to season. Right now, it is cold. As a result, there won't be many really interesting FAs on the market this coming off-season. Ellsbury will be among the most interesting, but I really doubt any team is going to offer him a seven-year deal. Those deals have not been working out well, and we probably won't see anymore for a while.

Ellsbury's injury history should be enough to restrict the years in offers. Because his performance can be electric, I think teams are more likely to offer more money per year, but a shorter length of contract. I still think the best offers he will get will be in the 4-5 year/$14-16M range.

I'm going to sound like a broken record here, but you need 4 top infielders (not including 1B) to contend, especially when you're still unsure of the production you're going to get from young guys at two positions.  Drew on this team is not a redundancy or surplus that should push someone to 1B, but an asset and almost a need just to keep the O firing on all cylinders.  Can you imagine the griping if Holt is your util guy behind WMB and Xander and then one of those guys underperforms or gets hurt?

If he rejects the QO and signs elsewhere, fine, we'll find someone, but there's no reason not to get him on a one year deal to help ease in Xander.

Nava represents a better OBP than Ellsbury, and would be a good stop-gap leadoff man, especially against RHP until JBJ or another is ready.
ADD: Choo would be a great pickup though.