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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 27, 2013 15:10:26 GMT -5
i have a feeling this contract is going to get crazy.
i don't think there is chance the yanks walk away from the table.
Also a team may look at the apv and age and take a longer term risk.
With Seattle involved, I think the ceiling may climb to 8-10 years, at 16 to 18.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 27, 2013 15:16:16 GMT -5
Verducci's take: How will Masahiro Tanaka's workload affect his MLB value? t.co/zUYvcItshi via @sinow Everyone should read this.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Dec 27, 2013 15:24:48 GMT -5
This is what im hoping for too. I'd rather the Sox stick to their plan. Seattle can help us out by taking these guys and taking the risks for us. That is my hope. The Mariners are projected to have two stud starters and the rest complete garbage. I can see them as clear front runners for Tanaka as well. They already outbid the Yanks, lets see if they can do it twice. That would make me very happy if we can't get him ourselves. I'm putting the link here because formatting was rough to see the projections for the Mariners rotation. www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP#7 Mariners Name IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% ERA FIP WAR Felix Hernandez 207.0 8.7 2.3 0.7 .309 71.8 % 3.29 2.97 5.1 Hisashi Iwakuma 187.0 7.2 2.3 0.8 .306 69.6 % 3.83 3.48 3.5 Erasmo Ramirez 146.0 6.7 3.0 1.0 .303 68.7 % 4.42 4.16 1.5 Taijuan Walker 140.0 8.3 4.4 1.0 .301 69.9 % 4.43 4.22 1.5 James Paxton 140.0 7.5 4.6 0.8 .304 68.1 % 4.64 4.20 1.3 Brandon Maurer 75.0 7.2 3.8 1.0 .303 69.3 % 4.50 4.29 0.6 Blake Beavan 56.0 4.7 2.2 1.3 .300 68.6 % 4.75 4.69 0.3 Hector Noesi 19.0 6.4 3.2 1.1 .299 70.8 % 4.41 4.41 0.2 Total 970.0 7.5 3.2 0.9 .304 69.6 % 4.13 3.83 14.1 Felix, iwakuma, walker, paxton and tanaka would be an awesome rotation
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 27, 2013 15:34:41 GMT -5
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 27, 2013 15:54:20 GMT -5
this i a great link but I don't think it will matter.
With no pick compensation, and the upside of the player, the age, and the unique marketing opportunities, the risk will have no balance.
Maybe a 'lackey' provision .
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Post by Guidas on Dec 27, 2013 17:47:52 GMT -5
Verducci's take: How will Masahiro Tanaka's workload affect his MLB value? t.co/zUYvcItshi via @sinow Everyone should read this. I'll read it but Verducci's "Verducci Effect" turned out to be essentially bogus.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 27, 2013 17:53:28 GMT -5
Added: "Any organization will tell you that just about the most dangerous thing you can do with a young pitcher is build up too many innings too soon. Biomechanical research has shown that the two greatest influences on injury risk are overuse and poor mechanics. Those influences especially come into play with young pitchers, who have not yet developed their full strength." Read More: sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20131227/masahiro-tanaka-major-league-baseball-value/#ixzz2oibLf17oSo if ANY organization will tell you this AND this is a known fact THEN ALL organizations should decline signing him for any more than a bag of balls. Hogwash hyperbole by Verducci. Again.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 27, 2013 19:34:46 GMT -5
Verducci's take: How will Masahiro Tanaka's workload affect his MLB value? t.co/zUYvcItshi via @sinow Everyone should read this. I'll read it but Verducci's "Verducci Effect" turned out to be essentially bogus. That whole article is based on two very dubious assumptions: 1. Pitches/innings in the Japanese leagues are the same as pitches/innings. 2. That we can draw meaningful conclusions from a tiny handful of comps, some from decades ago. Verducci is a lousy analyst. Great head of hair, though.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 27, 2013 19:46:46 GMT -5
We hear these innings total nightmares about every Japanese pitcher. And yeah, some of them do break. You know who else broke? Dylan Bundy, who was allowed roughy three pitches per start by the Orioles. Strasburg wasn't abused, and he broke. Lots of pitchers break, and all we really know is that it's bad for them to throw 130 pitches in a start, particularly when they're young. The rest is guesswork.
(And yeah, some organizations probably know better than we do, but chances are that the more they know, the less they're talking.)
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Post by onbase on Dec 27, 2013 20:09:14 GMT -5
I understand that the Verducci Effect has been debunked. I also understand that repetitive stress is a real thing, which is probably why all pitchers are vulnerable to "breaking". We also know that some athletes are tougher than others. Nolan survived, Tanana didn't. It took a while, but Halladay broke. Arroyo has redefined durable. Tanaka's workload history sounds an awful lot like DiceK's, so I think it's reasonable to be concerned about the mileage on the arm, but maybe not reasonable to assume the results will be the same.
So many questions: how much does a change in routine impact an arm with high mileage? Is conditioning based on pitching once a week a precursor to injury when that arm is asked to pitch every five days? Or is that change all by itself a problem? Should the Red Sox have allowed Dice to continue doing what he was used to doing? Do Japanese pitchers pitching in Japan break at the same rate as MLB pitchers?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 27, 2013 20:12:45 GMT -5
I understand that the Verducci Effect has been debunked. I also understand that repetitive stress is a real thing, which is probably why all pitchers are vulnerable to "breaking". We also know that some athletes are tougher than others. Nolan survived, Tanana didn't. It took a while, but Halladay broke. Arroyo has redefined durable. Tanaka's workload history sounds an awful lot like DiceK's, so I think it's reasonable to be concerned about the mileage on the arm, but maybe not reasonable to assume the results will be the same. So many questions: how much does a change in routine impact an arm with high mileage? Is conditioning based on pitching once a week a precursor to injury when that arm is asked to pitch every five days? Or is that change all by itself a problem? Should the Red Sox have allowed Dice to continue doing what he was used to doing? Do Japanese pitchers pitching in Japan break at the same rate as MLB pitchers?I'm not sure it's even possible to answer these questions, with the exception of the bolded one, which I'd actually be very interested in knowing myself.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 28, 2013 11:04:20 GMT -5
Olney from today's column:
"Masahiro Tanaka: Some executives expect he'll get a deal in the range of $100 million to $150 million because he's really, really good, and because of his age (25). Teams rarely have opportunities to sign free agents that young."
So executives are saying he's really really good, but Vurducci said organizations run away from young arms who threw so many innings (even though Darvish threw almost exactly as many innings in HS and Japanese league).
Obviously the executives never talk to the organizations.
What a cluster chuck.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 28, 2013 12:15:14 GMT -5
Olney from today's column: "Masahiro Tanaka: Some executives expect he'll get a deal in the range of $100 million to $150 million because he's really, really good, and because of his age (25). Teams rarely have opportunities to sign free agents that young." So executives are saying he's really really good, but Vurducci said organizations run away from young arms who threw so many innings (even though Darvish threw almost exactly as many innings in HS and Japanese league). Obviously the executives never talk to the organizations. What a cluster chuck. OR, they're just talking to different sources with different teams who feel differently...
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Post by jmei on Dec 28, 2013 12:33:47 GMT -5
You can also think a pitcher is very good while worrying about his injury risk. Think Clay Buccholz, for instance. Plus, none of the Olney execs said they think he'd be worth that amount of money, just that he'd get it.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 28, 2013 17:07:46 GMT -5
You can also think a pitcher is very good while worrying about his injury risk. Think Clay Buccholz, for instance. Plus, none of the Olney execs said they think he'd be worth that amount of money, just that he'd get it. Not a single one of the top 3 position player free agents were "worth" what they got paid, either. Then again, none of them are 25. Time will tiell.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 28, 2013 17:14:28 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 28, 2013 18:39:27 GMT -5
For Tanaka put me in the camp that wants no part of him at the price he's likely to command and it really doesn't matter if he's a #1,#2 or #3. The issue is innings pitched relative to his age. He's his sound alike risk, Tanana who blew out his shoulder at age 25 and was never the same again.
The holy grail of the antitheses of this is my all time favorite Boston pitcher who, because of WWII, only had 15 innings pitched before his rookie year at age 25. He went on to record 17 consecutive years of 250+ innings including several over 300 innings and all accomplished within a 154 schedule.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 28, 2013 19:59:39 GMT -5
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 28, 2013 20:07:51 GMT -5
I'll have to take your word for it.
I will truly be surprised if this contract is much below 20/10.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 28, 2013 22:41:22 GMT -5
Olney from today's column: "Masahiro Tanaka: Some executives expect he'll get a deal in the range of $100 million to $150 million because he's really, really good, and because of his age (25). Teams rarely have opportunities to sign free agents that young." So executives are saying he's really really good, but Vurducci said organizations run away from young arms who threw so many innings (even though Darvish threw almost exactly as many innings in HS and Japanese league). Obviously the executives never talk to the organizations. What a cluster chuck. OR, they're just talking to different sources with different teams who feel differently... OR they are assigning absolutes/near absolute value to comments that are composites and conjecture.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Dec 29, 2013 2:31:09 GMT -5
If I am reading this correctly, Tanaka is a 2 time winner of the Japanese equivalent of the Cy young award? headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20131227-00000019-jij_afp-baseSome other relatively new data at least for me. Something similar to the collusion option noted earlier. For example the possibility of the signing team showing a display ad of "Rakuten Shopping" in the signing team's stadium: headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20131225-00000007-ykf-spoOn a side note these guys were so brilliant that they took the domain name "Buy.com", which at one time was a top 5 shopping website in the US, and changed the name to "Rakuten Shopping" in the USA. I don't think that move is going to help their sales. Just saying!
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 29, 2013 7:37:20 GMT -5
…. The holy grail of the antitheses of this is my all time favorite Boston pitcher who, because of WWII, only had 15 innings pitched before his rookie year at age 25. He went on to record 17 consecutive years of 250+ innings including several over 300 innings and all accomplished within a 154 schedule. ah, took me a while to figure out who you meant; very careful wording. Around 1990 I bought a prospect handbook in the Princeton bookstore and the older woman at the register smiled and told me she had dated him.
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Post by buffs4444 on Dec 29, 2013 12:12:59 GMT -5
On top of it, if you give Tanaka close to 20m then good luck extending Lester. Call me crazy but I'd rather Lester for the next 5 years then Tanaka. I don't know what connection you're trying to draw between the two. Lester can use the Tanaka contract (or other FA contracts) in negotiation no matter where they sign. And the Sox have plenty of long term flexibility to sign both.The bolded says it all. If Tanaka gets $18-19M/AAV and Lester gets $20-21M/AAV, they're still in good shape to make some tweaks next year. The more I look at Tanaka, yes he'll be overpaid (they all are) but a 25yr old #2 starter is gold and he's got a good repertoire to be successful at Fenway. It will make punting the Yu process sting a little more, but they should get Tanaka in the fold and start getting younger in the rotation by dealing Lackey out west (SEA, LAA, ARI, etc).
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Dec 29, 2013 14:42:41 GMT -5
I don't know what connection you're trying to draw between the two. Lester can use the Tanaka contract (or other FA contracts) in negotiation no matter where they sign. And the Sox have plenty of long term flexibility to sign both.The bolded says it all. If Tanaka gets $18-19M/AAV and Lester gets $20-21M/AAV, they're still in good shape to make some tweaks next year. The more I look at Tanaka, yes he'll be overpaid (they all are) but a 25yr old #2 starter is gold and he's got a good repertoire to be successful at Fenway. It will make punting the Yu process sting a little more, but they should get Tanaka in the fold and start getting younger in the rotation by dealing Lackey out west (SEA, LAA, ARI, etc). If you sign Tanaka and Lester both, it's going to cost quite a bit. I don't think we will. But, Lackey is a great, cheap option for 2015 on his league minimum deal. You deal Peavy and Dempster IMO. I wouldn't even care if got nothing in return. Send us some over-rated prospects just to clear the money. Lester-Buchholz-Lackey-Tanaka-Doubront and some young arms getting close behind them.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 29, 2013 14:57:04 GMT -5
Who are the over-rated prospects?
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