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Masahiro Tanaka (1/22 update: to NYY for 7/$155m)
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 26, 2013 20:27:29 GMT -5
It's not just the innings which really don't matter it is the crazy pitch counts.
Arm destruction is more an acute abuse issue.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 26, 2013 21:08:14 GMT -5
It's also the declining peripherals in Japan.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 26, 2013 23:25:35 GMT -5
Two things, Dwight Gooden actually threw 1300+ innings before turning 25 after Tanana did it (he got injured when he was 29 and was never the same after either), and one (or two) guys is a miniscule sample and hardly something you can draw any real conclusion from, especially considering the volatility of pitchers and risk of pitcher injuries in general. That's not to say that the mileage on his arm shouldn't be a consideration, just that the reasoning is weak at best. Aside from the fact that Gooden did that in 6+ years and Tanana in 5, it's not that common to find a pitcher given that sort of workload at that age. Sending a young guy out there for 250+ innings does not appear to have been something that was all that common even in the "good old days". The examples I can find do not bode well for the idea. Dizzy Dean pitched 1700 innings between the ages of 22 and 27. He was through by age 27. Warren Spahn started in one of the truly remarkable careers but not till he was 26, having returned from WWII. From that time through his age 42 season he averaged 278 innings. I can't even wrap my mind around that. Bob Feller did pitch 1300 innings over his age 18 to 22 seasons. Then he went off to war and gave the arm nearly four years of rest. He did start right back in at age 27. Wes Ferrell pitched 1300+ from ages 21-25 with Cleveland. He came to Boston and kept it up for another 1264 innings. Then he was through at 30. This would be a fairly simple exercise - to figure out how often that's happened and what the results have looked like. We're away from home for Christmas, but I'll try to give it a whirl when I get back. As an aside, if you included minors, I am guessing a couple more guys might reach your plateau. Just a guess though.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 26, 2013 23:47:58 GMT -5
@keithlaw: Not to be Commodore Obvious Perry here, but Tanaka can be worse than Darvish and still be very, very good
FWIW
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Post by zil on Dec 27, 2013 1:13:07 GMT -5
bleacherreport.com/articles/1837558-should-mlb-gms-be-wary-of-masahiro-tanakas-abused-armSo he has been pitching in international completion for seven years and all the arm abused assumed. Now he goes 160 in a loss then throws in relief the next day. His team could keep him for another year, defend the title then get the same 20 million. But they are choosing to let him go a year early and outside of the very real possibility of a "partnership" with a team, they still get 20 and only 20. I'm not so sure I want anyone to steal him from the Yankees. The Cubs should get him. If he's good, then good for them. If he's bad, who cares?
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 27, 2013 7:52:06 GMT -5
Peter Abraham on Tanaka: Also: @bnightengale: Team officials involved in Tanaka sweepstakes say the Japanese star will cost a minimum of $17 million a year
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Post by Guidas on Dec 27, 2013 8:45:08 GMT -5
That sounds about right - if not a little low - for a 25 year old Kuroda, which is the comp. Which is exactly why I'd be all in.
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 27, 2013 10:01:23 GMT -5
This is good for Tanaka because he has flexibility on who he plays with . It's up to him to decide because they all will pay the 20 million to the team so the team is happy. That was the only drawback to the old way the player had to go to the highest bidder. Maybe this guy doesn't want to go to the MFY'S.
I don't know how the sox play this do they throw in a token bid on a contract or not. The only way I see that happening if they have plans on getting rid of a couple of these guys. I don't know how Lackey isn't an attractive option for teams. I think they eat one of either Peavy or Dempster. I think it's a waste to carry both of those guys on this roster with the kids that are knocking on the door.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Dec 27, 2013 10:05:02 GMT -5
Peter Abraham on Tanaka: Also: @bnightengale: Team officials involved in Tanaka sweepstakes say the Japanese star will cost a minimum of $17 million a year I gave up following Abraham months ago...he is not very original or insightful
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 27, 2013 10:28:43 GMT -5
Paying 17+ million a year for a guy who's never thrown a pitch in the majors is just ridiculous. It will happen, but it's an incredible gamble. The Sox should be steering clear of Tanaka. They are nit in position where taking a big gamble is necessary. You can't just look at the best case outcome. Yea, we'd all love a 25 year old number 2/3 starter in the rotation next year and thru his age 31 season. I can't even put a percentage on the chances of him being that. It's a complete unknown, but considering his lack of an overpowering pitch, his declining peripherals in Japan and the Sox stable of young pitching, I don't know why we'd want to spend those types of dollars on a lottery ticket with hood, but limited upside.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 27, 2013 10:30:33 GMT -5
On top of it, if you give Tanaka close to 20m then good luck extending Lester. Call me crazy but I'd rather Lester for the next 5 years then Tanaka.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 27, 2013 10:36:10 GMT -5
A lot of his (Abraham's) posts come down to exactly the same meme: "no news to report, nothing to see here". Aside from the empty calories in that sort of statement, it also comes across as a thinly veiled effort to influence the team. The idea is to generate enough buzz to move them to do something they may have no plans to do.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 27, 2013 10:51:45 GMT -5
Paying 17+ million a year for a guy who's never thrown a pitch in the majors is just ridiculous. It will happen, but it's an incredible gamble. The Sox should be steering clear of Tanaka. They are nit in position where taking a big gamble is necessary. You can't just look at the best case outcome. Yea, we'd all love a 25 year old number 2/3 starter in the rotation next year and thru his age 31 season. I can't even put a percentage on the chances of him being that. It's a complete unknown, but considering his lack of an overpowering pitch, his declining peripherals in Japan and the Sox stable of young pitching, I don't know why we'd want to spend those types of dollars on a lottery ticket with hood, but limited upside. A number two starter is not "limited upside" in today's game. A number two starter gets over 100 million easy in today's free agent market. Look at The contracts signed by number three starters recently. Heck Lester, who is not an "ace" (ie one of the top five to ten pitchers in the game) will likely get 140 million next year.
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Post by patrmac04 on Dec 27, 2013 10:57:00 GMT -5
It also projects the Yankees to have the 4th best rotation in the league with Pineda only getting 38 innings. That projection is based off of WAR for what it is worth... every starter on the Dodgers projected at 8th in WAR have an ERA under 3.77... the Nats look just as filthy. I'm not sure why incredible numbers like both teams starters have projected are not translating over to WAR.
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Post by patrmac04 on Dec 27, 2013 11:00:41 GMT -5
It would be great if Seattle stole him. This is what im hoping for too. I'd rather the Sox stick to their plan. Seattle can help us out by taking these guys and taking the risks for us. That is my hope. The Mariners are projected to have two stud starters and the rest complete garbage. I can see them as clear front runners for Tanaka as well. They already outbid the Yanks, lets see if they can do it twice. That would make me very happy if we can't get him ourselves. I'm putting the link here because formatting was rough to see the projections for the Mariners rotation. www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP#7 Mariners Name IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% ERA FIP WAR Felix Hernandez 207.0 8.7 2.3 0.7 .309 71.8 % 3.29 2.97 5.1 Hisashi Iwakuma 187.0 7.2 2.3 0.8 .306 69.6 % 3.83 3.48 3.5 Erasmo Ramirez 146.0 6.7 3.0 1.0 .303 68.7 % 4.42 4.16 1.5 Taijuan Walker 140.0 8.3 4.4 1.0 .301 69.9 % 4.43 4.22 1.5 James Paxton 140.0 7.5 4.6 0.8 .304 68.1 % 4.64 4.20 1.3 Brandon Maurer 75.0 7.2 3.8 1.0 .303 69.3 % 4.50 4.29 0.6 Blake Beavan 56.0 4.7 2.2 1.3 .300 68.6 % 4.75 4.69 0.3 Hector Noesi 19.0 6.4 3.2 1.1 .299 70.8 % 4.41 4.41 0.2 Total 970.0 7.5 3.2 0.9 .304 69.6 % 4.13 3.83 14.1
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Post by patrmac04 on Dec 27, 2013 11:07:01 GMT -5
Tangential note: the continued little brother syndrome is very unbecoming of Red Sox fans. Even with Tanaka, the Yankees are a marginal playoff team with a weak farm system and very little young talent. I'm on the younger side of things, so maybe the Yankee insecurity isn't as deeply ingrained for me, but I'd be far more concerned about Tanaka landing with the Rangers or the Tigers or even the Angels or the Royals. Yup, I am sure eons of watching the Sox get annually pasted by the Yankees has done some permanent damage to the hard drive. But even you, as a relative whippersnapper, has had to endure the power of the Yankee money machine. I agree that Tanaka on any of the teams you mentioned, except perhaps K.C., would pose a bigger threat to the Sox than if he signed with the Yankees as currently constituted. My hate for the Yankees and their seeming unending ability to "buy" with near impunity overrides reason here. I want them to suffer consequence. I never want to look up at the Yankees in the standings. I respect the Sox management for running a tight ship and resisting temptation. I just wish the Yankees (and now the Dodgers) did not have such financial advantage over most other teams. +1 ... Imagine how Tampa, the O's and Jays feel in a division with two heavyweights? I don't like complaining about the Yanks financial advantage too much since we are one of the top spending teams as well... but it does get old that the Yanks have a never ending money machine running in the back room.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 27, 2013 11:07:02 GMT -5
The Mariners are projected to have two stud starters and the rest complete garbage. I can see them as clear front runners for Tanaka as well. They already outbid the Yanks, lets see if they can do it twice. That would make me very happy if we can't get him ourselves. Erasmo/Walker/Paxton isn't "complete garbage" by any stretch. Won't keep them from trying to go after Tanaka or anything (or at least any more than the "we're done spending money" report that came out a week or so ago), but there's a lot of upside there that isn't captured by looking at a single-number WAR projection. I'm telling you, people, error bars.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 27, 2013 11:30:02 GMT -5
Having actually watched Walker and Paxton pitch,, I'm here to tell you that you might want some of that garbage on your plate. If they get Tanaka and he turns out to be anything at all, that's going to be quite a starting five.
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Post by raftsox on Dec 27, 2013 12:06:00 GMT -5
Aside from the fact that Gooden did that in 6+ years and Tanana in 5, it's not that common to find a pitcher given that sort of workload at that age. Sending a young guy out there for 250+ innings does not appear to have been something that was all that common even in the "good old days". ... This would be a fairly simple exercise - to figure out how often that's happened and what the results have looked like. We're away from home for Christmas, but I'll try to give it a whirl when I get back. There have been 64 MLB pitchers to reach the somewhat arbitrary 1300 IP by age 25 limit. Some of whom, scanning through the list are interesting names: Saberhagen, Eckersly, Vida Blue, FELIX HERNANDEZ, Bob Feller, the aforementioned Tanana and Gooden, Valenzuela, Drysdale, Mathewson, and more. FWIW: my new favorite player, based solely on his horrible, horrible name is #67 on that list. Nig Cuppy. He only pitched 1288.2 innings by then, threw 358 the next season (age 27, birthdate July 3). After that season though, he never threw more than 171.2 innings in a season. ADD: After further research, it turns out that's a racist nickname given to baseball players with darker complexions. Society was effed up, man.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 27, 2013 12:17:22 GMT -5
Is there any data at all on pitch types and pitch counts in previous eras? There's just no way all was equal when comparing 200 IP to 300 IP. Players didn't use to work counts like they do now, in fact it was seen as bad sportsmanship at one point. And I'm skeptical that they threw as many breaking pitches that were much harder on the arm.
Also, I remember when my dad coached me growing up through around age 14, he wouldn't let any kids throw curves, ever. He said it was just too hard on kids' arms.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 27, 2013 12:38:50 GMT -5
Tom Verducci brought up this point I think At the age of 24, Tanaka has thrown 1300+ innings. The last MLB pitcher to do the same was Frank Tanana who threw 1319 innings/age 24. Tanana was never the same afterwards So that mileage on the arm is a concern I think. Interesting. For those of you who weren't around at that time, or who don't remember, Nolan Ryan was nowhere near the best pitcher on the Angels teams of the mid-70s. He drove Don Drysdale, then the Angels' radio color man, nuts with his wildness. Instead, that honor went to Tanana who had as bright a career in front of him as you'd want. Except that he averaged nearly 260 innings from ages 20 thru 24, and that was that. We'd hope that Tanaka's not headed down that road, no matter who he ends up with. And then we traded Fred Lynn for Tanana when he was washed up. That was about as dumb as letting Carlton Fisk leave.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 27, 2013 13:36:53 GMT -5
Which is why I keep saying look at the sharp decline in K over the last three seasons: 9.6, 8.8, 7.8. He went from having a K/BB of 8.93 to 5.72. I think he had a bright future, but I think his arm is on the brink of falling off. I expect him to have a season like Kuroda just had in Tanaka's first major league season and to then start falling apart thereafter like DiceK.
I don't trust him enough to want the Red Sox to sign him, but I'm not sold enough on my prediction to want the Yankees to land him either. Hopefully the Cubs, Mariners, Dodgers or whomever else makes a strong bid for him.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 27, 2013 13:53:48 GMT -5
Interesting. For those of you who weren't around at that time, or who don't remember, Nolan Ryan was nowhere near the best pitcher on the Angels teams of the mid-70s. He drove Don Drysdale, then the Angels' radio color man, nuts with his wildness. Instead, that honor went to Tanana who had as bright a career in front of him as you'd want. Except that he averaged nearly 260 innings from ages 20 thru 24, and that was that. We'd hope that Tanaka's not headed down that road, no matter who he ends up with. And then we traded Fred Lynn for Tanana when he was washed up. That was about as dumb as letting Carlton Fisk leave. I remember those deals. I started watching the Red Sox in 1980 as an 8 year old. I remember the Sox foolishly letting Fisk go, and I had always thought the two deals they made with California was one mega-deal but they were made a month apart and one wound up being quite good for the Sox and the other was not so good. The first deal sent Burleson, Hobson and Steve Renko to the Angels for Lansford and Clear (who by 1983 I couldn't stand to watch pitch) and the second deal sent Lynn to Anaheim for Tanana and Rudi, two washed up players. Tanana wasn't awful for the 1981 Sox - he was 4-10 but with an ERA just over 4. He was just a shadow of his former self. Lynn struggled to .219 that first year but played closer to himself over the following years, but he was never the same hitter away from Fenway Park and he'd probably be in the HOF had he stayed at Fenway the rest of his career. Tanana actually did transition to being a junkballer, and wound up being quite good at it. I remember him pitching very well, particularly in Detroit. I think he outdueled Jimmy Key in a 1-0 victory at the end of the 1987 season that finished up Toronto's choke and got the Tigers the AL East title. If Tanaka even has latter career Tanana's value then the team that signs him will do alright.
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Post by oilcansman on Dec 27, 2013 14:16:08 GMT -5
If Verducci is correct that Tanaka will get 6 yrs. at $100+, how can anybody seriously believe Lester will take less than 6 years? Tanaka is 25 but is completely unproven in the US. Sox won't touch Tanaka unless they decide to trade Lester. Most likely Tanaka assists Lester by making his 6 yr. $140-$150 extension seem reasonable.
BTW, Verducci makes a decent case that Tanaka likely will give an MLB team two high quality years before starting to slide. I wouldn't touch him. Yankees can afford to blow 6 or 7 yrs at approx. $120 million for two or three quality years from Tanaka. Tanaka will be fun to watch pitch against sox in pinstripes next years. Good for rivalry.
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Post by elguapo on Dec 27, 2013 14:23:50 GMT -5
On top of it, if you give Tanaka close to 20m then good luck extending Lester. Call me crazy but I'd rather Lester for the next 5 years then Tanaka. I don't know what connection you're trying to draw between the two. Lester can use the Tanaka contract (or other FA contracts) in negotiation no matter where they sign. And the Sox have plenty of long term flexibility to sign both.
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