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Masahiro Tanaka (1/22 update: to NYY for 7/$155m)
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Post by bluechip on Jan 4, 2014 7:28:23 GMT -5
Seems to imply that they will, in fact, be bidding. It would be silly not to, really. I would be mad if they didn't at least post the twenty million. I do not expect them to pay 100 million plus (without judgement whether Tanaka is worth 100 million), but there is zero downside to posting the maximum.
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Post by amfox1 on Jan 4, 2014 8:41:07 GMT -5
It would be silly not to, really. I would be mad if they didn't at least post the twenty million. I do not expect them to pay 100 million plus (without judgement whether Tanaka is worth 100 million), but there is zero downside to posting the maximum. There is no actual posting of money. The winner is expected to wire the posting amount to the Japanese team prior to signing the Japanese player.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 4, 2014 9:01:02 GMT -5
I would be mad if they didn't at least post the twenty million. I do not expect them to pay 100 million plus (without judgement whether Tanaka is worth 100 million), but there is zero downside to posting the maximum. There is no actual posting of money. The winner is expected to wire the posting amount to the Japanese team prior to signing the Japanese player. How do they determine what the posting amount is? Does the Japanese team pick an amount and that is what the posting fee will be? It probably doesn't make a ton of difference for a premium prospect like Tanaka, but it will be interesting to see how it affects lesser players that are posted.
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Post by jmei on Jan 4, 2014 9:29:20 GMT -5
The Japanese team unilaterally sets the posting amount.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 4, 2014 10:43:28 GMT -5
The word "bidding" isn't that accurate because it implies that the team with the largest bid wins. He's just like any other free agent with $20 million added on. I'm not sure why they'd even bother having teams declare their intention to post $20 million bids because it's meaningless. Hell, I declare that I intend to post $20 million to sign him to my backyard whiffle ball team!
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Post by GyIantosca on Jan 5, 2014 9:48:28 GMT -5
I want to go.on record and say he will not have a Darvish type of year. He will have a disappointing year. We can go back and forth what is acceptable.
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Post by buffs4444 on Jan 5, 2014 12:25:08 GMT -5
Lester has averaged 3.7 fWAR over the last three years-- that's the kind of production you need to get out of Tanaka to come close to breaking even. I'll say that's about where he lands, in the 3.6-4.0 fWAR range, again, depending on health and personal transition factors. Slightly less than Yu's first year, and pretty solidly in the range where you want your #2 to perform. Perfect match to pair with Lester at the top of the rotation for the next 6 years, while the kids filter up and replace the remaining 3-5 starters. Sold to the reigning champs.....
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Post by Guidas on Jan 6, 2014 10:16:57 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Jan 6, 2014 10:51:40 GMT -5
Baseball America on if Tanaka would be any team's top prospect if he signed ( www.baseballamerica.com/majors/ask-ba-how-high-will-masahiro-tanaka-rank/ ). Obviously we're getting into semantics - no one will be signing Tanaka to $100+M to start in the minors, but interesting thought exercise. Excerpts: Tanaka would rank behind Byron Buxton on the Twins’ list. He’d rank behind Xander Bogaerts on the Red Sox’ list and you could go either way with him or Oscar Taveras on the Cardinals’ list. But besides that, he’d rank No. 1 on 27 of the 30 teams Top 10 lists.Tanaka may not match Yu Darvish as a prospect, largely because he lacks Darvish’s physicality, but he combines much of the same stuff, command and track record that Darvish had when he came to the States. Bu[like Darvish before he came to the US] ]Tanaka has been starting only once a week, not once every five days. And he’s been doing it against lineups where he can quite clearly gear up for the middle of the lineup while cruising through the bottom third with lesser stuff, something BA’s Ben Badler noted frequently during the 2013 season.
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 619
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Post by alnipper on Jan 6, 2014 11:06:27 GMT -5
I wanted to know the 2015 salary to determine our financial flexibility Four 2015 and beyond. Looking at the Red Sox budget for 2015 they should be able to afford both Laster and Tanaka. In order to afford Tanaka for 2014 the Red Sox would need to trade Peavy and or Dempster.The big question is should we signing Tanaka? Ultimately the signing of Tanaka will come down to how much the Red Sox feel his value is.
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hank
Rookie
Posts: 102
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Post by hank on Jan 6, 2014 12:23:18 GMT -5
I like the idea of signing Tanaka if for no other reason than it keeps him out of NY Thats what the Mariners are for. The Mariners aren't the Yankees. They made a big splash with Cano but my money is on NY to sign Tanaka, they simply can do whatever they want and noone else can. Call me shallow, call me immature but that concerns me, they're down and I don't want to see them find an easy escape hatch. If I get 60% of my enjoyment from MLB from the Red Sox winning I still get 40% from the Yankees losing. Having said that I hear a lot of discussion here about about mileage on Tanaka's arm and the risk that he won't be worth the money here, all valid concerns. But tell me what big money deal for a pitcher is risk free? The risks of signing Jon Lester at 31 are right there with the Tanaka risk in my opinion.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 6, 2014 12:37:41 GMT -5
As much as the entire world knows the Yanks want Tanaka, if I were betting I'd chose the Dodgers as his probable destination. Tough call though.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 6, 2014 13:43:42 GMT -5
Thats what the Mariners are for. The Mariners aren't the Yankees. They made a big splash with Cano but my money is on NY to sign Tanaka, they simply can do whatever they want and noone else can. Call me shallow, call me immature but that concerns me, they're down and I don't want to see them find an easy escape hatch. If I get 60% of my enjoyment from MLB from the Red Sox winning I still get 40% from the Yankees losing. Having said that I hear a lot of discussion here about about mileage on Tanaka's arm and the risk that he won't be worth the money here, all valid concerns. But tell me what big money deal for a pitcher is risk free? The risks of signing Jon Lester at 31 are right there with the Tanaka risk in my opinion. hank, I can't stand the Yanks either and almost enjoy seeing them lose as much as seeing the Sox win, but the Sox should only bid IF they deem that Tanaka is worth it. The Sox cannot play "defense" against the Yankees. It's a stupid way to operate. The Sox need to do what's in their best interest. The Yanks aren't the only team capable of beating the Sox. Yeah, it stung when the Yanks won in 2003 vs the Sox and just about every other year they've beaten the Sox when it matters, but there was no joy in watching Tampa beat the Sox in the 08 ALCS or when Oakland swept the Sox in 88 and 90 and so on and so forth. Again, the Sox need to do what's best for them. The Yanks have their own problems, namely that they are an aging team with a high payroll and very few prospects on the horizon. In this day and age, the best the Yanks can hope for is buying everybody at the right time like they did in 2009, but when you do that you have a veteran team that will decline and that's what they've done, and instead of rebuilding they're throwing more money at guys entering the down-side of their career. The Sox won with a veteran team mostly, but they know a team like this isn't built to last and they have a lot of talent in the minors for Ben's "next great Red Sox team". The Yanks don't have that. The Yanks might win it all this year. Doubt it, but it's possible, but they're not built to last. If the Sox think Tanaka is as good as Guidas does then the Sox should go full-blast into getting him and find a way to dump Dempster (I'd keep Peavy - he could surprise a lot of people here). But it does have to be factored in that Tanaka has thrown a ton of pitches at a young age and this could cause issues not so far down the road. I'd prefer the Sox go after him, but his workload he has done in the past can't be ignored.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 6, 2014 14:11:59 GMT -5
The Mariners aren't the Yankees. They made a big splash with Cano but my money is on NY to sign Tanaka, they simply can do whatever they want and noone else can. Call me shallow, call me immature but that concerns me, they're down and I don't want to see them find an easy escape hatch. If I get 60% of my enjoyment from MLB from the Red Sox winning I still get 40% from the Yankees losing. Having said that I hear a lot of discussion here about about mileage on Tanaka's arm and the risk that he won't be worth the money here, all valid concerns. But tell me what big money deal for a pitcher is risk free? The risks of signing Jon Lester at 31 are right there with the Tanaka risk in my opinion. hank, I can't stand the Yanks either and almost enjoy seeing them lose as much as seeing the Sox win, but the Sox should only bid IF they deem that Tanaka is worth it. The Sox cannot play "defense" against the Yankees. It's a stupid way to operate. The Sox need to do what's in their best interest. The Yanks aren't the only team capable of beating the Sox. Yeah, it stung when the Yanks won in 2003 vs the Sox and just about every other year they've beaten the Sox when it matters, but there was no joy in watching Tampa beat the Sox in the 08 ALCS or when Oakland swept the Sox in 88 and 90 and so on and so forth. Again, the Sox need to do what's best for them. The Yanks have their own problems, namely that they are an aging team with a high payroll and very few prospects on the horizon. In this day and age, the best the Yanks can hope for is buying everybody at the right time like they did in 2009, but when you do that you have a veteran team that will decline and that's what they've done, and instead of rebuilding they're throwing more money at guys entering the down-side of their career. The Sox won with a veteran team mostly, but they know a team like this isn't built to last and they have a lot of talent in the minors for Ben's "next great Red Sox team". The Yanks don't have that. The Yanks might win it all this year. Doubt it, but it's possible, but they're not built to last. If the Sox think Tanaka is as good as Guidas does then the Sox should go full-blast into getting him and find a way to dump Dempster (I'd keep Peavy - he could surprise a lot of people here). But it does have to be factored in that Tanaka has thrown a ton of pitches at a young age and this could cause issues not so far down the road. I'd prefer the Sox go after him, but his workload he has done in the past can't be ignored.That would be my biggest concern with Tanaka (other than, like, never having seen him live). I do wonder how much the extra rest that an every 6th-day system vs. an every 5th-day affects the recovery ability on the high pitch counts. And of course, any deal would be contingent on a physical which necessitates an MRI of his shoulder and elbow with that level of use. And, of course, he'll have to prove he can grow a beard.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 6, 2014 15:04:18 GMT -5
Thats what the Mariners are for. The Mariners aren't the Yankees. They made a big splash with Cano but my money is on NY to sign Tanaka, they simply can do whatever they want and noone else can. Call me shallow, call me immature but that concerns me, they're down and I don't want to see them find an easy escape hatch. If I get 60% of my enjoyment from MLB from the Red Sox winning I still get 40% from the Yankees losing. Having said that I hear a lot of discussion here about about mileage on Tanaka's arm and the risk that he won't be worth the money here, all valid concerns. But tell me what big money deal for a pitcher is risk free? The risks of signing Jon Lester at 31 are right there with the Tanaka risk in my opinion. Red Sox have to do what is best for the Red Sox. Like last year. The Sox winning the WS is enough of a thorn in the Yankees' side for me. To me, it's pretty clear that the Red Sox do not want to be in the position they were in pre-Punto trade ever again. Signing Tanaka would put them in that position, at least for a year and eliminate their ability to significantly adjust the roster in the middle of the season if it were necessary.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 7, 2014 10:21:16 GMT -5
All Tanaka's 3rd strikes in 2013 on one video:
It will give viewers a sense of two things at the very least:
He has a lot of movement on both his breaking pitches.
The fastball can be flat, and if he doesn't spot it down and away against good MLB hitters, it'll end up in the seats. That splitter is filthy, though.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 7, 2014 12:30:40 GMT -5
All Tanaka's 3rd strikes in 2013 on one video: It will give viewers a sense of two things at the very least: He has a lot of movement on both his breaking pitches. The fastball can be flat, and if he doesn't spot it down and away against good MLB hitters, it'll end up in the seats. That splitter is filthy, though. The splitter is a killer, no doubt about it. Easy to see how he gets players out with it since he can tick the fastball up to 94-95 (I've watched about 1/3 pf the video so far) and the motion is very good. But as you also mention, those weak swings against that heat would be replaced with a few that would be quite a bit more dangerous in the majors. Still he has a good arsenal. One concern I have is the mechanics: the wrist wrap and elbow cock. Looks like a hell of a lot of torque to me, but I'm not a biophysicist. Add: So most of the Ks are off the breaking pitches, the bulk of those that splitter. It is nasty. Doesn't seem like his fastball is a put-away pitch. Also, I could swear some of the Japanese players are dropping f-bombs after they strikeout. Just my imagination probably...
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Post by Guidas on Jan 7, 2014 13:12:56 GMT -5
All Tanaka's 3rd strikes in 2013 on one video: It will give viewers a sense of two things at the very least: He has a lot of movement on both his breaking pitches. The fastball can be flat, and if he doesn't spot it down and away against good MLB hitters, it'll end up in the seats. That splitter is filthy, though. The splitter is a killer, no doubt about it. Easy to see how he gets players out with it since he can tick the fastball up to 94-95 (I've watched about 1/3 pf the video so far) and the motion is very good. But as you also mention, those weak swings against that heat would be replaced with a few that would be quite a bit more dangerous in the majors. Still he has a good arsenal. One concern I have is the mechanics: the wrist wrap and elbow cock. Looks like a hell of a lot of torque to me, but I'm not a biophysicist.Add: So most of the Ks are off the breaking pitches, the bulk of those that splitter. It is nasty. Doesn't seem like his fastball is a put-away pitch. Also, I could swear some of the Japanese players are dropping f-bombs after they strikeout. Just my imagination probably... I think Barnes has a similar motion with the wrist wrap, and it's one of the reasons why my buddy who coached against him ultimately thinks he'll end up in the pen. Agree with this. I think as long as his control remains so good he'll be effective by spotting the FB on the corners, and because, even if you sit on that splitter it's still ridunkulous. Badler has called it the best on the planet. To wit: @benbadler Tanaka. Not sure anyone in the world has a better splitter than him. RT @peterottoson Better splitter, Samardzija or Tanaka?
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hank
Rookie
Posts: 102
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Post by hank on Jan 7, 2014 15:28:41 GMT -5
The Mariners aren't the Yankees. They made a big splash with Cano but my money is on NY to sign Tanaka, they simply can do whatever they want and noone else can. Call me shallow, call me immature but that concerns me, they're down and I don't want to see them find an easy escape hatch. If I get 60% of my enjoyment from MLB from the Red Sox winning I still get 40% from the Yankees losing. Having said that I hear a lot of discussion here about about mileage on Tanaka's arm and the risk that he won't be worth the money here, all valid concerns. But tell me what big money deal for a pitcher is risk free? The risks of signing Jon Lester at 31 are right there with the Tanaka risk in my opinion. Red Sox have to do what is best for the Red Sox. Like last year. The Sox winning the WS is enough of a thorn in the Yankees' side for me. To me, it's pretty clear that the Red Sox do not want to be in the position they were in pre-Punto trade ever again. Signing Tanaka would put them in that position, at least for a year and eliminate their ability to significantly adjust the roster in the middle of the season if it were necessary. Sure they do, what's best is what we're discussing. Obviously you're not signing a guy for 20 large if you don't believe in the player. But just to be clear if signing Tanaka leaves the Red Sox hamstrung financially you don't want to extend Lester for the same reason right?
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 7, 2014 16:06:28 GMT -5
Red Sox have to do what is best for the Red Sox. Like last year. The Sox winning the WS is enough of a thorn in the Yankees' side for me. To me, it's pretty clear that the Red Sox do not want to be in the position they were in pre-Punto trade ever again. Signing Tanaka would put them in that position, at least for a year and eliminate their ability to significantly adjust the roster in the middle of the season if it were necessary. Sure they do, what's best is what we're discussing. Obviously you're not signing a guy for 20 large if you don't believe in the player. But just to be clear if signing Tanaka leaves the Red Sox hamstrung financially you don't want to extend Lester for the same reason right? Extending Lester wouldn't hamstring the Red Sox in 2015. You have Dempster gone, Peavy gone and Lackey making $500k. Whether they extend Lester is based on whether they think he's worth whatever he's asking for. But what if Scherzer or Kershaw actually make it to free agency and we have a guy about as good as Lackey signed for $140 million?
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Post by Guidas on Jan 7, 2014 16:19:16 GMT -5
If Kershaw makes it to free agency…10 years, $30M a year seems to be a market figure floating around. As good and as young as he is that's just mind boggling. Then again, Lester, Scherzer, and perhaps Masterson could get 7 years from someone.
All this has to figure into the calculus regarding whether to sign Tanaka or not, especially with the Sox set to clear - without extensions of Papi and Lester - almost $100M off the books after this year. Extremely interesting does not cover it.
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Post by buffs4444 on Jan 7, 2014 16:54:34 GMT -5
Extending Lester wouldn't hamstring the Red Sox in 2015. You have Dempster gone, Peavy gone and Lackey making $500k. Whether they extend Lester is based on whether they think he's worth whatever he's asking for. But what if Scherzer or Kershaw actually make it to free agency and we have a guy about as good as Lackey signed for $140 million? The money is there, even if Tanaka is signed for $19M/yr or so. The question is, even in the highly unlikely event that LA (where Kershaw is the face of the franchise) or DET (where they basically traded Fielder to free up money to re-sign Max) are allowed to reach free agency.....is it really a viable alternative to target a guy that has already turned down 10/$300M (Kershaw) or the guy who has the agent that will definitely ask for $300M (Scherzer/Boras)? In that context Tanaka seems to be the more likely Red Sox target than either $300M pitcher.
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hank
Rookie
Posts: 102
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Post by hank on Jan 7, 2014 17:33:27 GMT -5
Sure they do, what's best is what we're discussing. Obviously you're not signing a guy for 20 large if you don't believe in the player. But just to be clear if signing Tanaka leaves the Red Sox hamstrung financially you don't want to extend Lester for the same reason right? Extending Lester wouldn't hamstring the Red Sox in 2015. You have Dempster gone, Peavy gone and Lackey making $500k. Whether they extend Lester is based on whether they think he's worth whatever he's asking for. But what if Scherzer or Kershaw actually make it to free agency and we have a guy about as good as Lackey signed for $140 million? If the Red Sox like Tanaka they can move Dempster and/or Peavy now, no? It comes down to how highly they rate the player. But keeping a potential stud out of NY is a definete side benefit in my mind.
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Post by grandsalami on Jan 7, 2014 19:33:38 GMT -5
Eye on Baseball ?@eyeonbaseball 19m Report: Masahiro Tanaka to meet with Cubs, White Sox this week cbsprt.co/KBzHNs via @cbssports
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 8, 2014 7:41:10 GMT -5
Extending Lester wouldn't hamstring the Red Sox in 2015. You have Dempster gone, Peavy gone and Lackey making $500k. Whether they extend Lester is based on whether they think he's worth whatever he's asking for. But what if Scherzer or Kershaw actually make it to free agency and we have a guy about as good as Lackey signed for $140 million? If the Red Sox like Tanaka they can move Dempster and/or Peavy now, no? It comes down to how highly they rate the player. But keeping a potential stud out of NY is a definete side benefit in my mind. Maybe we should have signed McCann, Beltran and Ellsbury too. It's a crazy way to think. Tanaka is not only a potential stud, but also a potential bust or a potential average pitcher not worth anywhere close to his contract. We don't need him and I really am not scared whatsoever if the Yankees get him. Not even a tiny bit.
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