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Post by jchang on Jun 1, 2015 16:10:59 GMT -5
More fun with numbers: Devers is currently the 8th-youngest player in Low A Devers + 1 year would be the 4th-youngest player in High A Devers + 2 years would be the 6th-youngest player in Double-A. Devers + 3 years would be the 10th-youngest player in Triple-A. In other words, one level a year is still an incredibly aggressive promotion schedule. I am sitting in a client office, and can only fake working so much, Can someone do a quick baseball stats query
What is the MLB rookie year age range for 1) elite (WAR 6+, Pujols, Trout, etc) 2) solid All-star level players (3 years at WAR 5?) 3) grade 6 WAR 3 players
lets say Devers makes it through the 4 levels of full season minors in 3 years, reaching and staying at the MLB at age 21, where would he fit in?
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 1, 2015 16:16:38 GMT -5
Why do people want to rush him? This is crazy.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 1, 2015 16:22:44 GMT -5
If Devers is still hitting ~.350 in late July then I don't see why they wouldn't promote him. Everyone here is getting far to enamored with his age. But more importantly the question should be 'is he being challenged?' He has room to grow with the power (not worried about this as power numbers tend to increase as players with plus, or better, raw power advance), room to improve with plate patience and plenty of improvement needed for defense. But it often seems like young players who hit for very high averages don't develop their plate patience until they are challenged (why not swing if they can usually hit it?). If we evaluate every prospect as if they are 'average' then it risks holding them back or pushing them too much. In Devers case, maybe he needs more of an A-Rod/Harper promotion schedule in order to continue to be challenged. Or maybe a month from now he's mired in a brutal slump and this whole conversation is moot. Either way, I think it's best we don't get too obsessed when relating 'age' to 'should he be promoted' unless we are talking about non-baseball concerns (e.g. should he be hanging out with a bunch of 21 year olds? Is he uncomfortable being so far away from his family?) I don't think we're disagreeing. My point has been just that the clamor to promote him right now, at the beginning of June, as though he has shown without doubt that he's way too good for the level, is a little silly. Maybe I should have more explicitly stated the point was the Red Sox could choose to take what seems like a more conservative approach and just move him up one level at a time, and that'd still be pretty aggressive. I wasn't saying they needed to. Apologies for lack of clarity. If he hits this well for say, 300-350 PAs, which should get us to about August (he's at 164), then sure, it might be time. That's why I said above that if he gets promoted it'd be in August or so. Maybe late July if he really starts going off. It's just still early is all: He's still at a stage of the season where an 0-for-20 drops his batting average almost 40 points. I'd also like to see him get around the league a few times. Other than Lexington, the Drive haven't had more than 1 or 2 series with any team yet.
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Post by jmei on Jun 1, 2015 17:03:53 GMT -5
I also think that, considering the pretty sizable difference in positional adjustment between 3B and 1B (roughly 1.5 wins per season), giving Devers extended time at a level when he can focus on improving his fielding would be quite beneficial.
Of course, the counterargument is that because of the crowded infield in Greenville, he's not getting as many 3B reps as he could.
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Post by jchang on Jun 1, 2015 17:13:29 GMT -5
I am hoping for either Jul 10 (at Frederick) or Jul 31 (at Potomac), both being Fri-Sat-Sun games, because its a lot easier to do a 1-hop flight to Dulles, than the 2/3 hops necessary to get to the cities Greenville plays in.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jun 1, 2015 17:32:42 GMT -5
For proof that there always are exceptions to general practices, just look at Alex Rodriguez. He made his first appearance in the majors at the age of 18. When he was 20 he hit .358 for the Mariners with 36 HRs, 123 RBIs and an OPS of 1.065. I don't think he was juicing then. (I've never understood why he ever did).
And also, Ted Williams. When he was 20, in his rookie year with the Sox, he hit .327 with 31 HRs, 145 RBIs and an OPS of 1.045. Two years later he hit .406.
I'm not saying that Devers is as talented as these two, just that when there is enormous talent, age really should not be much of a factor.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 1, 2015 18:06:07 GMT -5
For proof that there always are exceptions to general practices, just look at Alex Rodriguez. He made his first appearance in the majors at the age of 18. When he was 20 he hit .358 for the Mariners with 36 HRs, 123 RBIs and an OPS of 1.065. I don't think he was juicing then. (I've never understood why he ever did). And also, Ted Williams. When he was 20, in his rookie year with the Sox, he hit .327 with 31 HRs, 145 RBIs and an OPS of 1.045. Two years later he hit .406. I'm not saying that Devers is as talented as these two, just that when there is enormous talent, age really should not be much of a factor. Right, but as we always say, if you have to do something like point to two of the best 10 or so hitters ever to point something like this out...
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 1, 2015 18:45:34 GMT -5
If Devers is still hitting ~.350 in late July then I don't see why they wouldn't promote him. Everyone here is getting far to enamored with his age. But more importantly the question should be 'is he being challenged?' Surely any activity where you fail more often than you succeed (success rate below .500) can be considered challenging.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,983
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Post by jimoh on Jun 1, 2015 18:51:37 GMT -5
For proof that there always are exceptions to general practices, just look at Alex Rodriguez. He made his first appearance in the majors at the age of 18. When he was 20 he hit .358 for the Mariners with 36 HRs, 123 RBIs and an OPS of 1.065. I don't think he was juicing then. (I've never understood why he ever did). ... can't know for sure, but there are claims that he juiced in high school sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4114292sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4114292
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 1, 2015 19:52:02 GMT -5
More fun with numbers: Devers is currently the 8th-youngest player in Low A Devers + 1 year would be the 4th-youngest player in High A Devers + 2 years would be the 6th-youngest player in Double-A. Devers + 3 years would be the 10th-youngest player in Triple-A. In other words, one level a year is still an incredibly aggressive promotion schedule. This is true. I actually agree that Devers should spend most (if not all) of the season in Greenville, but a lot of people seem to think that he's the type of talent to be 1st-youngest or 2nd in whatever leagues. ADD: As hypothetical as they come, but what kind of line do you think Devers would put up in Boston right now? -5% chance it would actually happen of course, but I'm curious. I know Eric has that Davenport translation formula. I haven't looked at the Davenport translations this year. I understand Robert Downey, Jr. hasn't done cocaine, for essentially the same reasons. You can look 'em up yourself at claydavenport.com. I have massive self-control these days.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jun 1, 2015 21:29:16 GMT -5
I don't think we're disagreeing. My point has been just that the clamor to promote him right now, at the beginning of June, as though he has shown without doubt that he's way too good for the level, is a little silly. Maybe I should have more explicitly stated the point was the Red Sox could choose to take what seems like a more conservative approach and just move him up one level at a time, and that'd still be pretty aggressive. I wasn't saying they needed to. Apologies for lack of clarity. If he hits this well for say, 300-350 PAs, which should get us to about August (he's at 164), then sure, it might be time. That's why I said above that if he gets promoted it'd be in August or so. Maybe late July if he really starts going off. It's just still early is all: He's still at a stage of the season where an 0-for-20 drops his batting average almost 40 points. I'd also like to see him get around the league a few times. Other than Lexington, the Drive haven't had more than 1 or 2 series with any team yet. I understand where you're coming from - his 'great' stat line can become very mediocre with a simply slump. What is the general feedback on how the scouting side feels he looks at the plate right now? It sounds like he's had some real hard hit balls, but that may be my selective reading/memory. By 'getting around the league a few times' do you feel that pitchers in A-ball learn the weaknesses of the hitters to pitch them differently? At what level does the scouting/learning of the opposition really begin to impact success of prospects?
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Post by jmei on Jun 1, 2015 21:31:56 GMT -5
I think a big part of it is that guys will stop giving him good pitches to hit, and at that point, he'll have to make the adjustment and take his walks rather than expanding his zone.
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Post by malynn19 on Jun 1, 2015 22:03:41 GMT -5
I think a big part of it is that guys will stop giving him good pitches to hit, and at that point, he'll have to make the adjustment and take his walks rather than expanding his zone. Huh?, so he's just getting batting practice? He bats 3rd for the most watched/scouted A ball team on the planet. I know the 6-0 pitcher they faced tonight, that gave up 7 runs and raised his ERA by a full run will disagree with you. My friends, mostly Yankees fan, track Greenville. They knew of Devers, Moncada and Kopech and now they know of Guerra, Dubon and Chavis. My own cousin, is making his son copy Dever's stance and swing since it reminds him of a cleaner version of Robinson Cano.
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Post by jmei on Jun 2, 2015 6:27:51 GMT -5
I think a big part of it is that guys will stop giving him good pitches to hit, and at that point, he'll have to make the adjustment and take his walks rather than expanding his zone. Huh?, so he's just getting batting practice? He bats 3rd for the most watched/scouted A ball team on the planet. I know the 6-0 pitcher they faced tonight, that gave up 7 runs and raised his ERA by a full run will disagree with you. My friends, mostly Yankees fan, track Greenville. They knew of Devers, Moncada and Kopech and now they know of Guerra, Dubon and Chavis. My own cousin, is making his son copy Dever's stance and swing since it reminds him of a cleaner version of Robinson Cano. I think you'd be surprised how little there is in the way of scouting reports at that level. Gameplans are targeted at the pitcher's development, not at the hitters' strengths and weaknesses. I'm glad you have well-informed friends, but payers at that level certainly aren't reading Baseball America in their time off.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 2, 2015 6:37:47 GMT -5
I think a big part of it is that guys will stop giving him good pitches to hit, and at that point, he'll have to make the adjustment and take his walks rather than expanding his zone. Huh?, so he's just getting batting practice? He bats 3rd for the most watched/scouted A ball team on the planet. I know the 6-0 pitcher they faced tonight, that gave up 7 runs and raised his ERA by a full run will disagree with you. My friends, mostly Yankees fan, track Greenville. They knew of Devers, Moncada and Kopech and now they know of Guerra, Dubon and Chavis. My own cousin, is making his son copy Dever's stance and swing since it reminds him of a cleaner version of Robinson Cano. Where do you get the batting practice idea from? Pitchers don't want to give up hits so after he gets hits off them, they'll throw less strikes. Maybe in hopes that he'll chase, maybe because they don't want to give up more hits. They aren't preparing for Devers like it's a major league game. The goal is to improve more than it is to win.
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Post by burythehammer on Jun 2, 2015 6:42:51 GMT -5
Huh?, so he's just getting batting practice? He bats 3rd for the most watched/scouted A ball team on the planet. I know the 6-0 pitcher they faced tonight, that gave up 7 runs and raised his ERA by a full run will disagree with you. My friends, mostly Yankees fan, track Greenville. They knew of Devers, Moncada and Kopech and now they know of Guerra, Dubon and Chavis. My own cousin, is making his son copy Dever's stance and swing since it reminds him of a cleaner version of Robinson Cano. I think you'd be surprised how little there is in the way of scouting reports at that level. Gameplans are targeted at the pitcher's development, not at the hitters' strengths and weaknesses. I'm glad you have well-informed friends, but payers at that level certainly aren't reading Baseball America in their time off. Now, the DSL and GCL on the other hand, very detailed scouting reports...
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Post by jmei on Jun 2, 2015 6:54:16 GMT -5
I think you'd be surprised how little there is in the way of scouting reports at that level. Gameplans are targeted at the pitcher's development, not at the hitters' strengths and weaknesses. I'm glad you have well-informed friends, but payers at that level certainly aren't reading Baseball America in their time off. Now, the DSL and GCL on the other hand, very detailed scouting reports... He had less than 200 PAs at each level, which is not nearly enough time to really start pitching him differently. Not to mention that the higher the level, the more that opposing pitchers can show him close pitches and challenge his plate discipline.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 2, 2015 7:03:07 GMT -5
Now, the DSL and GCL on the other hand, very detailed scouting reports... He had less than 200 PAs at each level, which is not nearly enough time to really start pitching him differently. Not to mention that the higher the level, the more that opposing pitchers can show him close pitches and challenge his plate discipline. I think he was referring to the Devers GCL scouting reports thing from last year.
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 29, 2015 13:07:25 GMT -5
Nick (Right Field): Do you think Devers will develop enough power to profile at 3B or another corner spot? And how have you liked his progression this season?
Ben Badler: He already does. It’s plus power right now, he’s just an 18-year-old going against older, more experienced pitching, so he’s still learning to fully tap into it. With how big he’s going to be, we could be talking about him growing into 70 power once he fills out.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 29, 2015 13:10:23 GMT -5
Nick (Right Field): Do you think Devers will develop enough power to profile at 3B or another corner spot? And how have you liked his progression this season? Ben Badler: He already does. It’s plus power right now, he’s just an 18-year-old going against older, more experienced pitching, so he’s still learning to fully tap into it. With how big he’s going to be, we could be talking about him growing into 70 power once he fills out. It's our Baby Papi growing up!
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Post by Guidas on Jul 29, 2015 14:41:13 GMT -5
Nick (Right Field): Do you think Devers will develop enough power to profile at 3B or another corner spot? And how have you liked his progression this season? Ben Badler: He already does. It’s plus power right now, he’s just an 18-year-old going against older, more experienced pitching, so he’s still learning to fully tap into it. With how big he’s going to be, we could be talking about him growing into 70 power once he fills out. It's our Baby Papi growing up! This is really encouraging. 70 power is extremely rare if Badler means present (vs. raw) power. I don't get the writers saying Devers may get too big to play third. As long as he's fit, that shouldn't be a concern. NFL linebackers routinely dress-out at over 250lbs but most have as much lateral speed and quickness as the average 3rd baseman, and perhaps even the average shortstop. If Devers keeps the body fat down and continues to work on lateral mobility he should be able to carry as much as 230 lbs on his frame and if anything be quicker and stronger. It will probably be more about flexibility and first step quickness/reaction time for him than anything else. But if that sags, 70 power will play at 1st or LF just as well.
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Post by jmei on Jul 29, 2015 14:45:16 GMT -5
I don't think anyone has ever accused Devers of having the physique or athleticism of an NFL linebacker. As I noted in Spring Training, even the best MLB athletes are at least a notch or two below NFL guys. As such, I don't think it's fair to use an NFL linebacker as the benchmark for what a guy like Devers is capable of.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 29, 2015 14:58:29 GMT -5
I don't think anyone has ever accused Devers of having the physique or athleticism of an NFL linebacker. As I noted in Spring Training, even the best MLB athletes are at least a notch or two below NFL guys. As such, I don't think it's fair to use an NFL linebacker as the benchmark for what a guy like Devers is capable of. I've not seen him work out and only seen him play once. Just saying this is a throwaway line that a lot of sportswriters and even some evaluators have used. But if you prefer Division 1 college linebacker, I'm good with that. Even division 1 free safety clocking in at 210. Point is he can get significantly bigger and stronger and not have to move off 3rd as a result of it as long as he does it correctly.
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Post by arzjake on Jul 29, 2015 15:04:41 GMT -5
You have the Potential of Devers 3B, Moncada 2B, Longhi 1B, Guerra ss, Mars, Hudson in the OF, chavis all climbing the ladder together. All are 20 yrs and younger. I understand not all will make an impact, pretty impressive group at the moment.
Let it ride. Next year all in high A, anyone jumps out next season off to AA ball like Travis this time of year. Let em develop!
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Post by jmei on Jul 29, 2015 15:14:38 GMT -5
I don't think he's that kind of natural athlete, though. Even amongst professional baseball players, there's a select group of guys who can maintain that sort of quickness and agility while weighing 230+ lbs. You can improve on those traits with the proper training, but usually only to a limited extent. There's a reason that Miguel Cabrera isn't playing shortstop or even third base and that, with a few exceptions (and those exceptions are generally the closest thing to NFL-caliber athletes in MLB), center fielders and shortstops tend to be small/shifty types. Sure, it's possible that Devers improves his athleticism as he adds size/strength, but the odds are against it.
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