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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on May 30, 2015 18:29:33 GMT -5
Devers' D has been an issue all along, but at this stage in his career I don't think it is a big deal. He either will improve enough to stick at 3rd, or he will move to first. And for the Sox that is not a bad move. While there are some decent prospect 1Bs in the system, Devers is the only potential superstar that I know of.
In about three years the Sox could have an incredible infield, possibly with a superstar at every position.
That is, if they don't get traded...
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 30, 2015 18:42:07 GMT -5
so we have a bunch of average Major Leaguers that are ranked high in the system. good to know. Devers and Chavis show choppy footwork at 3rd and don't look comfortable there. That is what coaches are supposed to correct I thought. I don't know, it seems that these players just go out and do what they want and the coaches just sit on the sidelines sipping coolatas. Good point. You should let Crockett know. Although I guess he is probably out getting them more Coolattas.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on May 30, 2015 20:21:33 GMT -5
Devers' D has been an issue all along, but at this stage in his career I don't think it is a big deal. He either will improve enough to stick at 3rd, or he will move to first. And for the Sox that is not a bad move. While there are some decent prospect 1Bs in the system, Devers is the only potential superstar that I know of. In about three years the Sox could have an incredible infield, possibly with a superstar at every position. That is, if they don't get traded... Perpetually true.
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Post by burythehammer on May 31, 2015 4:37:25 GMT -5
I can't tell if the guy that wrote that is just being bearish because he's 18 or he really thinks a plus hit tool with 20+ home runs translates into an average major leaguer.
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Post by jmei on May 31, 2015 8:33:46 GMT -5
I can't tell if the guy that wrote that is just being bearish because he's 18 or he really thinks a plus hit tool with 20+ home runs translates into an average major leaguer. To be fair, at first base, that's not much better than an average major leaguer, especially since he's likely to be a bad baserunner and might be below-average defensively even at 1B. Think 2014 Adam LaRoche (26 home runs, .259/.362/.455, but just 1.6 fWAR (-5 UZR)) or 2013 Prince Fielder (25 home runs, .279/.362/.457, but just 2.3 fWAR (-5 UZR)).
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on May 31, 2015 9:19:41 GMT -5
My impression is Devers is improving and has some decent hands and a strong arm. I can attest that he has the arm for 3rd. He just needs to play everyday at 3rd. And, as I said in another thread, Chavis (who I like) needs to play everyday at 3rd also (Lowell?). In a couple of years we can see if either one has the making of a decent 3rd base man. The way Sandoval is playing, I'm praying they move rather quickly.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 31, 2015 10:19:01 GMT -5
I for one am really appreciative of the first hand reports, and any footage that gets posted. I think the conflicting reports on Devers' D get resolved, at least for me, once there's enough information. Thanks to those of you who take the time to make those games.
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Post by James Dunne on May 31, 2015 13:21:39 GMT -5
Ah prospect forums. Where "he could realistically end up one of the 16 best first baseman alive" is considered being down on someone.
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Post by burythehammer on May 31, 2015 15:39:56 GMT -5
Nice try, but I never said being an average major leaguer was a bad thing. My point was that the guy's description, to me, did not describe an average major leaguer. If he had said, "I'm not as high on Devers' bat as other people seem to be", that would've made perfect sense to me.
But while we're at it, every player in the majors is "one of the best baseball players alive." Hell, you could you include the entire minor leagues if we're talking relative to the earth's population. Jose Vincio is one of the 150 best shortstops alive!
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Post by burythehammer on May 31, 2015 15:59:30 GMT -5
I can't tell if the guy that wrote that is just being bearish because he's 18 or he really thinks a plus hit tool with 20+ home runs translates into an average major leaguer. To be fair, at first base, that's not much better than an average major leaguer, especially since he's likely to be a bad baserunner and might be below-average defensively even at 1B. Think 2014 Adam LaRoche (26 home runs, .259/.362/.455, but just 1.6 fWAR (-5 UZR)) or 2013 Prince Fielder (25 home runs, .279/.362/.457, but just 2.3 fWAR (-5 UZR)). Fair enough, but those guy weren't just "below average" defensively and running the bases, they were among the worst at their position in those years. I think if you're a plus hit (which I guess we assume as a proxy for OBP for our purposes) with 20+ home runs, even at first base, you have to be just plain bad at defense and base-running to not run at least a 3 WAR, which is not superstar but definitely above average.
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Post by malynn19 on May 31, 2015 16:19:21 GMT -5
I can't tell if the guy that wrote that is just being bearish because he's 18 or he really thinks a plus hit tool with 20+ home runs translates into an average major leaguer. To be fair, at first base, that's not much better than an average major leaguer, especially since he's likely to be a bad baserunner and might be below-average defensively even at 1B. Think 2014 Adam LaRoche (26 home runs, .259/.362/.455, but just 1.6 fWAR (-5 UZR)) or 2013 Prince Fielder (25 home runs, .279/.362/.457, but just 2.3 fWAR (-5 UZR)). This guy. To be fair, he is only 18 yrs old. This is his Senior year in High School.
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Post by malynn19 on May 31, 2015 16:22:40 GMT -5
To be fair, at first base, that's not much better than an average major leaguer, especially since he's likely to be a bad baserunner and might be below-average defensively even at 1B. Think 2014 Adam LaRoche (26 home runs, .259/.362/.455, but just 1.6 fWAR (-5 UZR)) or 2013 Prince Fielder (25 home runs, .279/.362/.457, but just 2.3 fWAR (-5 UZR)). Fair enough, but those guy weren't just "below average" defensively and running the bases, they were among the worst at their position in those years. I think if you're a plus hit (which I guess we assume as a proxy for OBP for our purposes) with 20+ home runs, even at first base, you have to be just plain bad at defense and base-running to not run at least a 3 WAR, which is not superstar but definitely above average. Well Said, I totally agree with you. When I think of plus hit tool, LaRoche or these 2 seasons do not come to mind.
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Post by ethanbein on May 31, 2015 16:43:46 GMT -5
Well Said, I totally agree with you. When I think of plus hit tool, LaRoche or these 2 seasons do not come to mind. Well, a .362 OBP is definitely plus these days. I think the biggest difference is that Devers is likely to be plus defensively at first base in his 20s (if he ends up there) given that he at least is playing third right now. Take -5 and make it +5, and that's a solidly above average player. (That's of course if you buy into scouts' confidence on his hit tool, which I don't. Nothing against Devers, but scouts don't have a great track record projecting hit tools for 18 year olds - it's hard!)
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Post by jmei on May 31, 2015 16:46:48 GMT -5
To be fair, at first base, that's not much better than an average major leaguer, especially since he's likely to be a bad baserunner and might be below-average defensively even at 1B. Think 2014 Adam LaRoche (26 home runs, .259/.362/.455, but just 1.6 fWAR (-5 UZR)) or 2013 Prince Fielder (25 home runs, .279/.362/.457, but just 2.3 fWAR (-5 UZR)). Fair enough, but those guy weren't just "below average" defensively and running the bases, they were among the worst at their position in those years. I think if you're a plus hit (which I guess we assume as a proxy for OBP for our purposes) with 20+ home runs, even at first base, you have to be just plain bad at defense and base-running to not run at least a 3 WAR, which is not superstar but definitely above average. Here's a quick-and-dirty look at if this is true. I looked at first basemen with between 20 and 25 home runs and between a .340 and .360 OBP over the last few years, prorated to 600 PAs. 2013 Mike Napoli: 4.0 fWAR 2013 Adrian Gonzalez: 2.7 fWAR 2013 Adam Lind: 1.7 fWAR 2013 Nick Swisher: 2.2 fWAR 2012 Paul Goldschmidt: 3 fWAR 2012 Allen Craig: 2.9 fWAR 2012 Freddie Freeman: 1.6 fWAR 2011 Michael Cuddyer: 2.5 fWAR 2011 Freddie Freeman: 0.6 fWAR Average: 2.4 fWAR
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Post by chavopepe2 on May 31, 2015 16:50:25 GMT -5
Just curious, but why are we using OBP as a proxy for a plus hit tool?
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Post by jmei on May 31, 2015 16:54:21 GMT -5
Just curious, but why are we using OBP as a proxy for a plus hit tool? Because OBP is the one that matters for WAR-type calculations.
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Post by chavopepe2 on May 31, 2015 16:58:55 GMT -5
Sure, but it doesn't mean "plus hit tool". If Devers projects to have a plus hit tool, it does not mean he projects to having good plate discipline.
A more accurate way to look at it would be to look at high average players and keep isod as an unknown variable. Because I don't think we really have much idea at this point how Devers will do in that area.
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Post by jmei on May 31, 2015 17:18:04 GMT -5
Sure, but it doesn't mean "plus hit tool". If Devers projects to have a plus hit tool, it does not mean he projects to having good plate discipline. A more accurate way to look at it would be to look at high average players and keep isod as an unknown variable. Because I don't think we really have much idea at this point how Devers will do in that area. Kiley McDaniel has talked about this-- generally, for any given hit tool projection, there's a presumption of league-average patience (walk rate). If a hitter is particularly patient in the high minors, you can round up the hit tool a half-grade. For Devers specifically, if he's a .280 hitter, a league-average isod would put him at roughly a .344 OBP, so we're giving him a little bit of the benefit of the doubt, but the scouting reports have generally praised his pitch recognition and approach, so I think that's fair.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 31, 2015 22:15:41 GMT -5
Lot of clamor for Devers to get promoted to Salem this year. I'd just like to point out that if he spends a full season at Greenville, at Salem, and at Portland, he'll be in Pawtucket at age 21.
There are presently 9 21-year-olds (or younger) in Triple-A, plus five in the majors.
There is zero need to promote Devers this year. Zero. If he does get promoted, it'll be in like, August.
To compare:
Bogaerts spent the first half of his age 18 season in XST, then finished it in Greenville. He started the next year in Salem and spent most of the year there. In other words, Devers can spend the entire year in Greenville and still be on the Xander Bogaerts track.
In his age 18 season, Mookie Betts was in high school, then played one game in the GCL after being drafted. He spent his age 19 season in XST/Lowell. Then he hit warp speed at ages 20 and 21.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,891
Member is Online
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Post by nomar on May 31, 2015 22:24:10 GMT -5
There was also a period last year where it seemed like Devers was too good for his level, then all of the sudden he went into a huge slump. I'd rather have him go through a slump in Greenville than force him into one by aggressively promoting him. He's already extremely age advanced.
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Post by James Dunne on May 31, 2015 22:27:25 GMT -5
I also think part of what's driving the "promote Devers!" campaign is that he's currently playing the best of anyone in the system. In each of the last three previous years, they've had someone who put up almost video game numbers in the first half: Bradley was hitting .359/.480/.526 for Salem in '12, Cecchini at .350/.469/.547 for Salem in '13 (doesn't that feel like forever ago?), and Mookie at .355/.443/.551 last year with Portland. Devers is playing great, but just nowhere near that level of great. I think we have gotten used to clamoring for a promotion once we turn the calendar to June.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 31, 2015 23:37:25 GMT -5
More fun with numbers:
Devers is currently the 8th-youngest player in Low A Devers + 1 year would be the 4th-youngest player in High A Devers + 2 years would be the 6th-youngest player in Double-A. Devers + 3 years would be the 10th-youngest player in Triple-A.
In other words, one level a year is still an incredibly aggressive promotion schedule.
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Post by charliezink16 on Jun 1, 2015 1:55:33 GMT -5
More fun with numbers: Devers is currently the 8th-youngest player in Low A Devers + 1 year would be the 4th-youngest player in High A Devers + 2 years would be the 6th-youngest player in Double-A. Devers + 3 years would be the 10th-youngest player in Triple-A. In other words, one level a year is still an incredibly aggressive promotion schedule. This is true. I actually agree that Devers should spend most (if not all) of the season in Greenville, but a lot of people seem to think that he's the type of talent to be 1st-youngest or 2nd in whatever leagues. ADD: As hypothetical as they come, but what kind of line do you think Devers would put up in Boston right now? -5% chance it would actually happen of course, but I'm curious. I know Eric has that Davenport translation formula.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,988
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Post by jimoh on Jun 1, 2015 13:29:23 GMT -5
I also think part of what's driving the "promote Devers!" campaign is that he's currently playing the best of anyone in the system. In each of the last three previous years, they've had someone who put up almost video game numbers in the first half: Bradley was hitting .359/.480/.526 for Salem in '12, Cecchini at .350/.469/.547 for Salem in '13 (doesn't that feel like forever ago?), and Mookie at .355/.443/.551 last year with Portland. Devers is playing great, but just nowhere near that level of great. I think we have gotten used to clamoring for a promotion once we turn the calendar to June. plus, more briefly, Margot: .324 .377 .515 .891 in April, .135 .175 .135 .310 in a May cut short by injury
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jun 1, 2015 15:43:22 GMT -5
If Devers is still hitting ~.350 in late July then I don't see why they wouldn't promote him. Everyone here is getting far to enamored with his age. But more importantly the question should be 'is he being challenged?'
He has room to grow with the power (not worried about this as power numbers tend to increase as players with plus, or better, raw power advance), room to improve with plate patience and plenty of improvement needed for defense. But it often seems like young players who hit for very high averages don't develop their plate patience until they are challenged (why not swing if they can usually hit it?).
If we evaluate every prospect as if they are 'average' then it risks holding them back or pushing them too much. In Devers case, maybe he needs more of an A-Rod/Harper promotion schedule in order to continue to be challenged. Or maybe a month from now he's mired in a brutal slump and this whole conversation is moot. Either way, I think it's best we don't get too obsessed when relating 'age' to 'should he be promoted' unless we are talking about non-baseball concerns (e.g. should he be hanging out with a bunch of 21 year olds? Is he uncomfortable being so far away from his family?)
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