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ericmvan
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Brentz
Sept 8, 2017 1:20:03 GMT -5
Post by ericmvan on Sept 8, 2017 1:20:03 GMT -5
I'd feel better about Brentz being home now if we knew he'd be added this offseason. Being out of options makes it tough, and maybe the FO just doesnt see a scenario where he makes the 25 man, no matter what. If they feel they need to bring in a 4th OF next year (seems like they do) and have Lin/Holt at 5th, Brentz is gone. I'd argue that you should try it, and if you have to trade him, or let him go in May, so be it. They may also realize that if they are over tax anyway they can just add and remove Rusney at will and if someone claims him so be it. I would be very surprised if they felt strongly enough about Brentz to add him in the 5 days after the world series but not strongly enough to add him in September. It doesn't make sense. The line of "we don't have room on the 40-man" is really shorthand for "we don't have room on the 40-man based on how good we think you are."As I've said above, based on arb. raises, they're pretty much guaranteed to go over the CBT next year (go follow twitter.com/redsoxpayroll , who is doing the lord's work, and his spreadsheet at docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zPx_cKCQ7TQjab2kPM4zIhEFSDxrTpLLIEZr2xh5E8g/edit#gid=1603863171 ). For that reason, Rusney as the 4th outfielder makes a lot of sense - he's WAY better defensively than Brentz, who isn't good out there. Brentz's fit on the roster would be if he could also play some 1B and back it up, but his same-handedness as Travis is kind of an issue there (and probably a big reason why they were comfortable leaving him off the roster in September, as Travis will probably get the AB's vs. LHP that Brentz would've stolen from Young). The nice thing with Castillo is you can see how he looks in winter ball and ST before making the call. I've put forth an alternate explanation that I think makes a lot more sense. As jmei implies, there's no sabermetric argument that Brentz will be better than Young vs. LHP the rest of the way. They both project to be good. We can all think that Young will continue to flounder, but that's not what the numbers says. I pointed out that the last time Young struggled all season vs. LHP, he destroyed them in September. Given that, and Young's stature in the clubhouse, adding Brentz to the roster is a vote of no confidence in Young. Now, there are some guys who like that because it lights a fire under them. And there are some players who need to know that management has their back. When you add in the fact that JF is very likely to stick with Young ... it just makes more sense to roll the dice on Young regressing upward to the mean, than on Brentz's MLE's being on the nose. I would absolutely add him to the roster, along with Castillo, and take them both to ST and see what happens. Letting Brentz go as an mlfa and having to find a similar OF to add to the roster (unless you're comfortable with Aneury Tavaarez as the 5th best OFer in the system) makes no sense.
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Brentz
Sept 8, 2017 10:05:39 GMT -5
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 8, 2017 10:05:39 GMT -5
I will definitely agree with nearly all of that. I guess it's just a hunch on my part, but who knows? You certainly could add him easily. I admit there's a gap between "like him enough to add him now" and "like him enough to add him after the WS but before he's a free agent," but I just feel like it's such a small gap that they're unlikely to be in there, just imo.
My only quibble (and it's a quibble): I think it's a vote of no confidence in Young only if Brentz comes up and starts taking his playing time. If they reward him for having a great season and get him some pinch hitting spots, I can't imagine that would bother anyone, right? As you say, Farrell is going to stick with Young (and is probably right to do so, frankly). And I'd add that upon further reflection, Brentz would've been somewhat redundant with Travis as the LHP pinch hitter (Travis hit LHP well in AAA despite his struggles, and is more important in the Sox' future plans than Brentz, especially if the org wasn't happy with Brentz's work at first base, which I'm starting to think must have been the case).
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ericmvan
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Brentz
Sept 9, 2017 9:40:31 GMT -5
Post by ericmvan on Sept 9, 2017 9:40:31 GMT -5
I will definitely agree with nearly all of that. I guess it's just a hunch on my part, but who knows? You certainly could add him easily. I admit there's a gap between "like him enough to add him now" and "like him enough to add him after the WS but before he's a free agent," but I just feel like it's such a small gap that they're unlikely to be in there, just imo. My only quibble (and it's a quibble): I think it's a vote of no confidence in Young only if Brentz comes up and starts taking his playing time. If they reward him for having a great season and get him some pinch hitting spots, I can't imagine that would bother anyone, right? As you say, Farrell is going to stick with Young (and is probably right to do so, frankly). And I'd add that upon further reflection, Brentz would've been somewhat redundant with Travis as the LHP pinch hitter (Travis hit LHP well in AAA despite his struggles, and is more important in the Sox' future plans than Brentz, especially if the org wasn't happy with Brentz's work at first base, which I'm starting to think must have been the case). Let me refine your quibble, which is a good point: it's a distraction to Young if Brentz comes up. Media speculation that he's here to take Young's job, Young having to talk about it, JF explaining the rationale you cite, people still being skeptical. And if Young continues to struggle, more calls in the media for Brentz to replace him. Pretty clearly that circus is not worth the reward. I wouldn't be surprised if they explained this to Brentz. Ironically, if Young were killing it, Brentz might be here.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 9, 2017 13:38:11 GMT -5
Meh. I'd say "potential distraction" myself. I think you're greatly overestimating the hoopla that adding Bryce Brentz to the roster would generate.
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ericmvan
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Brentz
Sept 9, 2017 16:11:05 GMT -5
Post by ericmvan on Sept 9, 2017 16:11:05 GMT -5
Meh. I'd say "potential distraction" myself. I think you're greatly overestimating the hoopla that adding Bryce Brentz to the roster would generate. And I think you're greatly underestimating the desire of the local media to sell ads. He's the IL HR champion, and he plays the same position as a guy who has struggled tremendously. Even Nick Cafardo can't screw that story up -- it writes itself.
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Brentz
Sept 13, 2017 20:07:25 GMT -5
Post by widewordofsport on Sept 13, 2017 20:07:25 GMT -5
Did anyone talk about how if the Red Sox knew they wanted nothing to do with Brentz in the future at July 31 (he's only gotten more appealing since, so I assume they knew back then), they could have hung on to someone they liked better by including him in a deal. There's no way a power hitter in AAA has zero value as a throw-in, and saves you a throw-in for next trade instead.
I really doubt we will be even up to Travis Shaw level of regret next year on him, but it still just seems like a waste.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 13, 2017 20:12:09 GMT -5
There's just no room for Brentz on the 40 man. I mean Boyer has pitched 3 games at the lowest possible leverage in September, but there's no way they could give up on him. This is even more annoying to me than keeping Grady Sizemore on the roster when he was killing the team with every appearance while Nava was in the minors.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 19, 2017 9:37:49 GMT -5
Brentz could be an inexpensive productive player next year, I hope he is given the chance.
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Brentz
Oct 19, 2017 10:47:58 GMT -5
Post by dmaineah on Oct 19, 2017 10:47:58 GMT -5
Brentz could be an inexpensive productive player next year, I hope he is given the chance. Agree
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Brentz
Oct 19, 2017 21:55:12 GMT -5
Post by libertine on Oct 19, 2017 21:55:12 GMT -5
I think he has earned a shot with the team next season and hope he gets one. He might be a late bloomer. Been a long road for him. Hopefully this past season was him getting it figured out at the plate.
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Brentz
Oct 26, 2017 8:55:06 GMT -5
Post by trajanacc on Oct 26, 2017 8:55:06 GMT -5
Question for those in the know/who follow minor league baseball (I don't):
What is a semi-optimistic floor and ceiling for Bryce Brentz? He is discussed in many threads as if he is a potential middle-of-the-order big bat and corner outfielder, and yet the most recent prospect rankings (which I would assume take into account his swing adjustment and recent success) still have him outside the top 20.
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Brentz
Oct 26, 2017 10:59:07 GMT -5
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 26, 2017 10:59:07 GMT -5
Question for those in the know/who follow minor league baseball (I don't): What is a semi-optimistic floor and ceiling for Bryce Brentz? He is discussed in many threads as if he is a potential middle-of-the-order big bat and corner outfielder, and yet the most recent prospect rankings (which I would assume take into account his swing adjustment and recent success) still have him outside the top 20. news.soxprospects.com/2017/08/scouting-scratch-potential-sept-call.htmlFor me, floor is obviously AAA guy, which is what he's been for years now. Ceiling? Reasonably? Maybe Brandon Moss? Most likely I think best realistic outcome is that he's a second division starter, or a platoon guy on a contending team, who kills lefties and is averagish against RHP while playing below average defense.
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nomar
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Brentz
Oct 26, 2017 12:08:03 GMT -5
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Post by nomar on Oct 26, 2017 12:08:03 GMT -5
He’ll be a 3-5 WAR starter for the Dodgers next year.
On a serious note, he really does scare me as the type to tear it up somewhere else.
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gerry
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Brentz
Oct 26, 2017 12:10:38 GMT -5
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Post by gerry on Oct 26, 2017 12:10:38 GMT -5
Question for those in the know/who follow minor league baseball (I don't): What is a semi-optimistic floor and ceiling for Bryce Brentz? He is discussed in many threads as if he is a potential middle-of-the-order big bat and corner outfielder, and yet the most recent prospect rankings (which I would assume take into account his swing adjustment and recent success) still have him outside the top 20. news.soxprospects.com/2017/08/scouting-scratch-potential-sept-call.htmlFor me, floor is obviously AAA guy, which is what he's been for years now. Ceiling? Reasonably? Maybe Brandon Moss? Most likely I think best realistic outcome is that he's a second division starter, or a platoon guy on a contending team, who kills lefties and is averagish against RHP while playing below average defense. In other words, a home grown, late blooming lefty-killer with 25HR+ potential as 4th OF on the Sox who can back up DH and maybe 1B in a pinch, as well as PH against LHP; and cost league minimum. A Chris Young with better OBP and power who costs 6M less against a too close Cap. Added benefit? That $6M helps pay for JDM at DH/LF/PH who could be the difference maker in the next few years. This, in turn, allows the Sox to either move former lefty killer Hanley or put his injured body on the bench to also back up DH and 1B and PH. Adding JDM, Brentz to Hanley, Mookie, Devers, Beni, etc. ... That's a lot of power.
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Brentz
Oct 26, 2017 12:33:52 GMT -5
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 26, 2017 12:33:52 GMT -5
Well, let's not get too crazy.
I have said I thought the Red Sox should have called him up in September, because I think he'd be a nice 4th OF. I think it's a possibility he'd hit well enough to be a DH. I think you'd be nuts to count on that though.
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gerry
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Brentz
Oct 27, 2017 1:32:30 GMT -5
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Post by gerry on Oct 27, 2017 1:32:30 GMT -5
Well, let's not get too crazy. I have said I thought the Red Sox should have called him up in September, because I think he'd be a nice 4th OF. I think it's a possibility he'd hit well enough to be a DH. I think you'd be nuts to count on that though. Well if that mechanical change made him a better hitter with power, and he keeps showing it, he would power to the lineup. Interesting discussions re: Brent's vs Castillo. Either one are good choices for 4th OF.
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Brentz
Oct 27, 2017 7:03:55 GMT -5
Post by James Dunne on Oct 27, 2017 7:03:55 GMT -5
People are going to be furious when the Red Sox fourth outfielder is a reasonably capable veteran from outside the organization.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 27, 2017 8:31:07 GMT -5
People are going to be furious when the Red Sox fourth outfielder is a reasonably capable veteran from outside the organization. Who will end up being worse than Brentz is elsewhere. The next Travis Shaw, except not even traded for anything significant.
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Brentz
Oct 27, 2017 8:45:04 GMT -5
Post by James Dunne on Oct 27, 2017 8:45:04 GMT -5
More realistically is that he's the next Adam Duvall. A second-division starter who finally gets his chance and puts up gaudy power numbers, but doesn't do enough other things well to be an impact contributor. Brentz would have been a smart carry in 1993, when teams had 11 pitchers and could bring along a one-dimensional basher on the bench. He could be a 1.5-2.0 WAR DH, which is something to strongly consider given the current roster construction.
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Brentz
Oct 27, 2017 13:26:57 GMT -5
Post by jimed14 on Oct 27, 2017 13:26:57 GMT -5
More realistically is that he's the next Adam Duvall. A second-division starter who finally gets his chance and puts up gaudy power numbers, but doesn't do enough other things well to be an impact contributor. Brentz would have been a smart carry in 1993, when teams had 11 pitchers and could bring along a one-dimensional basher on the bench. He could be a 1.5-2.0 WAR DH, which is something to strongly consider given the current roster construction. He would have been a good option on the bench in the playoffs, given that most of the lineup doesn't need a pinch runner and they always needed a batter.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 27, 2017 13:30:18 GMT -5
I really can't imagine that the Sox would just over look the numbers he put up after the adjustment he made. How can you not want to see more reps to be sure this is the new him or not. The numbers after the change are gaudy and he doesn't cost anything. He wouldn't be the first late bloomer to go on to have a productive career.
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Brentz
Oct 27, 2017 14:04:48 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Oct 27, 2017 14:04:48 GMT -5
I would love to buy Dombrowski a few drinks and ask him why they didn't protect Brentz. It really does seem pretty inexplicable.
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Brentz
Oct 27, 2017 14:19:20 GMT -5
Post by ramireja on Oct 27, 2017 14:19:20 GMT -5
I would love to buy Dombrowski a few drinks and ask him why they didn't protect Brentz. It really does seem pretty inexplicable. I'd hope he picks up the bill, but yeah, I'd vouch for that convo too.
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ericmvan
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Brentz
Nov 5, 2017 17:48:25 GMT -5
Post by ericmvan on Nov 5, 2017 17:48:25 GMT -5
I would love to buy Dombrowski a few drinks and ask him why they didn't protect Brentz. It really does seem pretty inexplicable. "You keep using that word. I do think it means what you think it means." Half of thought it made no sense and half of us were putting forth and defending a pretty thorough explanation.
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Brentz
Nov 13, 2017 22:51:45 GMT -5
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 13, 2017 22:51:45 GMT -5
Brentz is the perfect compliment to Benintendi. Benny can sit vs some lefties and Brentz can play LF.
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