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Brentz
Sept 12, 2012 14:59:57 GMT -5
Post by brendan98 on Sept 12, 2012 14:59:57 GMT -5
Beyeler calls Brentz "a guy that can impact the middle of his lineup with his bat", and says that he reminds him of Middlebrooks last year. With Brentz being on, what seems to be, a very similiar path to that of Middlebrooks last year (impressive AA numbers, small period of adjustment after promotion to AAA, followed by AFL), does he have the potential to move as quickly as Will did this year, or should we expect more of a full season of AAA for Brentz in 2013?
I am really excited to see the Sox get younger, and see more homegrown players get a chance to impact the MLB level with the Red Sox. I hope Brentz can move into the Sox OF at some point next year, and then Bradley and Bogaerts (maybe Shaw) in the lineup a year or two after that.
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Brentz
Sept 12, 2012 15:57:06 GMT -5
Post by elguapo on Sept 12, 2012 15:57:06 GMT -5
Brentz is listed as playing for the Pawtucket Red Soox. Coool.
He struck out more than once per game at AA and his cameo in AAA. Seems like he has some adjustments to make, at AAA and again in the majors, before becoming a bona fide starter.
Middlebrooks benefitted from a power surge and a favorable BABIP and has significant room for improvement next season.
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Brentz
Sept 12, 2012 16:34:29 GMT -5
Post by dmaineah on Sept 12, 2012 16:34:29 GMT -5
I think he should play in AAA next year with a possible call up after the trade deadline, certainly by September. I also think he will be the RF in 2014 and will be there for the next 10+ years batting 5th or 6th. He is the real deal & the best OF prospect in the system by far.
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Brentz
Sept 12, 2012 17:34:23 GMT -5
Post by wskeleton76 on Sept 12, 2012 17:34:23 GMT -5
I think he is right hitting Josh Reddick. He might need time to adjust to AAA and MLB.
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Brentz
Sept 12, 2012 17:52:19 GMT -5
Post by psusox14 on Sept 12, 2012 17:52:19 GMT -5
I think he should play in AAA next year with a possible call up after the trade deadline, certainly by September. I also think he will be the RF in 2014 and will be there for the next 10+ years batting 5th or 6th. He is the real deal & the best OF prospect in the system by far. Wow. So you'd take him over JBJ, without hesitation? (honest question, I'm not trying to badger you)
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Brentz
Sept 12, 2012 19:13:21 GMT -5
Post by dmaineah on Sept 12, 2012 19:13:21 GMT -5
I think he should play in AAA next year with a possible call up after the trade deadline, certainly by September. I also think he will be the RF in 2014 and will be there for the next 10+ years batting 5th or 6th. He is the real deal & the best OF prospect in the system by far. Wow. So you'd take him over JBJ, without hesitation? (honest question, I'm not trying to badger you) Absolutely. 2 totally different players. Brentz should hit around .285 with some strike outs but will be a real good run producing hitter with power & a very good OF. JBJ will be a good on base % hitter with little power or speed & a great CF defender.
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Brentz
Sept 12, 2012 20:00:03 GMT -5
Post by jioh on Sept 12, 2012 20:00:03 GMT -5
Wow. So you'd take him over JBJ, without hesitation? (honest question, I'm not trying to badger you) Absolutely. 2 totally different players. Brentz should hit around .285 with some strike outs but will be a real good run producing hitter with power & a very good OF. JBJ will be a good on base % hitter with little power or speed & a great CF defender. Wow, it's great to know that all of our top prospects are guaranteed to hit their celings! The future looks bright indeed.
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Brentz
Sept 12, 2012 20:25:03 GMT -5
Post by mainesox on Sept 12, 2012 20:25:03 GMT -5
I think you're overstating Brentz's abilities a bit and understating Bradley's.
Brentz projects to hit about .285 if he improves his plate discipline, and he projects for ~20 hr power with a fair number of strike outs and minimal walks (I equate him roughly to Middlebrooks only playing a less-premium position, and solid-average power instead of true plus power). He's also only an average defender in RF.
Bradley projects to hit around .300 and maintain a very good OBP (.380 or so) with average speed (could steal 20-ish bases a year), and gold glove caliber defense in CF.
I don't know how you feel about advanced statistics, but according to wOBA a point of OBP is worth about 3 points of SLG, so if we assume, just for reference, that Brentz reproduces his career minor league OBP of .335 in the majors and Bradley produces a .300/.385/.400 line, Brentz would have to carry a SLG% of roughly .550 just to be equally as valuable as Bradley with the bat, and then, even if he manages that and is equally as valuable with the bat, you still have to add in the difference in value between an elite defensive CF and an average defensive RF, which would still leave Bradley as a more valuable overall player.
I actually like Brentz quite a bit, and I think he has a chance to be a valuable player for the Red Sox, but I think his particular skill set tends to get overrated (and is a relatively common skill set) while Bradley's tends to get underrated (and is a lot harder to find).
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Brentz
Sept 12, 2012 20:56:35 GMT -5
Post by jmei on Sept 12, 2012 20:56:35 GMT -5
FYI: it is rare that a player with limited power posts elite plate discipline numbers. From 1950 to the present, there are only 19 players who, over their careers, had a .375 OBP or higher and a .425 SLG or lower. The logic is that if hitters don't exhibit at least average-to-plus power, pitchers will just pound the strike zone, making it difficult to achieve great OBPs with limited power. That profile is easier to achieve in the minor leagues (and especially the low minors) since pitchers just won't have the control to consistently throw that many strikes, but it is difficult to accomplish in the majors (and those that do are often HOF-type players: Tim Raines, Rickey Henderson, Pete Rose, etc).
I also tend to think that Brentz needs to make significant improvements in his strikeout rate to hit for a .285+ average in the major leagues. It's quite difficult to hit well for average when you are striking out 20%+ of the time, and Brentz has been around 25% strikeouts the last two years. This season, the highest AVG of a player who struck out in more than 25% of their ABs is B.J. Upton at an AVG of .254 and Jonny Gomes at .258.
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Brentz
Sept 12, 2012 21:54:40 GMT -5
Post by mainesox on Sept 12, 2012 21:54:40 GMT -5
For what it's worth, I think he has enough power to keep pitchers honest (his scouting report here says fringe average power). I was just making up a hypothetical line (with round numbers for convenience), and while I think it ends up more doubles power than home runs power, I could see something similar to Pedroia's 2007 line (.317/.380/.442 w/8HRs).
I could (obviously) be way off on my estimation of his potential, but based on everything I've read about him, that's the type of offensive player he strikes me as.
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Brentz
Sept 13, 2012 7:48:37 GMT -5
Post by sarasoxer on Sept 13, 2012 7:48:37 GMT -5
For what it's worth, I think he has enough power to keep pitchers honest (his scouting report here says fringe average power). I was just making up a hypothetical line (with round numbers for convenience), and while I think it ends up more doubles power than home runs power, I could see something similar to Pedroia's 2007 line (.317/.380/.442 w/8HRs). I could (obviously) be way off on my estimation of his potential, but based on everything I've read about him, that's the type of offensive player he strikes me as. Mainesox, I believe that the scouting report has Brentz with average to plus power potential. The reference I saw relative his being "fringe-average" was referring to his speed. Brentz hit 30 homers last year and dropped off to 17 in Portland after stepping up a level. He has wide, strong hands and a very solid core. He is not a doubles power kind of guy.
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Brentz
Sept 13, 2012 8:30:35 GMT -5
Post by Matt Huegel on Sept 13, 2012 8:30:35 GMT -5
Mainesox, I believe that the scouting report has Brentz with average to plus power potential. The reference I saw relative his being "fringe-average" was referring to his speed. Brentz hit 30 homers last year and dropped off to 17 in Portland after stepping up a level. He has wide, strong hands and a very solid core. He is not a doubles power kind of guy. Mainesox was talking about Bradley.
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Brentz
Sept 13, 2012 9:43:37 GMT -5
Post by sarasoxer on Sept 13, 2012 9:43:37 GMT -5
Thanks, Matt. Clearly I missed that.
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Brentz
Sept 13, 2012 11:43:25 GMT -5
Post by jioh on Sept 13, 2012 11:43:25 GMT -5
FYI: it is rare that a player with limited power posts elite plate discipline numbers. From 1950 to the present, there are only 19 players who, over their careers, had a .375 OBP or higher and a .425 SLG or lower. .... Career OBP of .375 is a pretty high standard. If Bradley can put up a .356 OBP with elite defense in the major leagues, that'll make him an outstanding CF. He would have the fifth highest OBP among qualifying mlb cf this year, seventh highest last year, fourth in 2010.
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Brentz
Sept 13, 2012 13:04:48 GMT -5
Post by jmei on Sept 13, 2012 13:04:48 GMT -5
Agreed-- I just think a .380 OBP is much too ambitious of a projection for any hitter who doesn't have plus power. If Bradley settles in as a .280/.360/.400 hitter, he'll be a very good player (4+ WAR, borderline all-star at times) given his position and defense. A reasonable comparison is Denard Span and his career .286/.359/.389 line and 3.6 WAR per 600 PAs (although I do think Bradley is a better defender than Span).
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Brentz
Sept 13, 2012 14:14:42 GMT -5
Post by elguapo on Sept 13, 2012 14:14:42 GMT -5
A reasonable comparison is Denard Span and his career .286/.359/.389 line and 3.6 WAR per 600 PAs (although I do think Bradley is a better defender than Span). Span had a .286 / .355 / .356(!) / .711 line in the minors, including 2 full years of sub-700 at AA and AAA ages 22-23. It's not unrealistic to think Bradley will hit markedly better than Span in the majors based on a significantly better MiL track record. There's a wide range between Span and Raines, and I'd say Bradley will fall somewhere in the middle.
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Brentz
Sept 13, 2012 17:33:45 GMT -5
Post by mainesox on Sept 13, 2012 17:33:45 GMT -5
Agreed-- I just think a .380 OBP is much too ambitious of a projection for any hitter who doesn't have plus power. If Bradley settles in as a .280/.360/.400 hitter, he'll be a very good player (4+ WAR, borderline all-star at times) given his position and defense. A reasonable comparison is Denard Span and his career .286/.359/.389 line and 3.6 WAR per 600 PAs (although I do think Bradley is a better defender than Span). I think Bradley has more power than Span (Span has almost non-existent power [2-3 HRs and 15-20 dbls], while Bradley projects as fringe average), and according to his scouting report Bradley profiles as a plus hitter, which I believe equates to about a .300 average (I could be wrong, so someone correct me if I am, but I think that's right). If you give Span enough hits to give him a .300 average (and assume they are all singles) his career line is .300/.370/.404. Or if you take your theoretical .280/.360/.400 line for Bradley and add enough singles for a .300 average that's a .300/.376/.420 line, which is about what I guesstimated. If I'm wrong about what a 'plus' hitter's average is expected to be then I'll have to change my thinking, but even using the projected ISOd from your own theoretical line for him and giving him the .300 average I think he is projected for, he comes out to about the .380 I suggested, so if anything we disagree on what he'll hit for average, and not how much he'll walk.
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Brentz
Sept 13, 2012 18:30:57 GMT -5
Post by dmaineah on Sept 13, 2012 18:30:57 GMT -5
I'll take Brentz over JBJ every time. Give me the run producing, middle of the order hitter. I really don't care how much he strikes out. Brentz will be a guy we want at the plate with runners in scoring position. I look forward to his arrival.
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Brentz
Sept 13, 2012 19:11:58 GMT -5
Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 13, 2012 19:11:58 GMT -5
I'll take Brentz over JBJ every time. Give me the run producing, middle of the order hitter. I really don't care how much he strikes out. Brentz will be a guy we want at the plate with runners in scoring position. I look forward to his arrival. Do you care if he hits .220 with a .270 OBP?
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Brentz
Sept 13, 2012 19:26:03 GMT -5
Post by dmaineah on Sept 13, 2012 19:26:03 GMT -5
I'll take Brentz over JBJ every time. Give me the run producing, middle of the order hitter. I really don't care how much he strikes out. Brentz will be a guy we want at the plate with runners in scoring position. I look forward to his arrival. Do you care if he hits .220 with a .270 OBP? If he hits 25 HR with 100 RBI, no. If all he is is a great defender, then yes. And I don't see Brentz hitting that low.
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Brentz
Sept 13, 2012 19:43:05 GMT -5
Post by mainesox on Sept 13, 2012 19:43:05 GMT -5
So you'd be cool with Salty hitting 3/4/5 for the Sox next year?
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Brentz
Sept 13, 2012 21:16:38 GMT -5
Post by beasleyrockah on Sept 13, 2012 21:16:38 GMT -5
So you'd be cool with Salty hitting 3/4/5 for the Sox next year? This my exact question until I scrolled down and saw your post. If I knew how to send karma on this forum, they'd be going your way.
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Brentz
Sept 13, 2012 21:21:49 GMT -5
Post by dmaineah on Sept 13, 2012 21:21:49 GMT -5
So you'd be cool with Salty hitting 3/4/5 for the Sox next year? No. Because Salty is not a run producer. He is not an RBI guy. There is a difference between having power and being a run producing RBI hitter.
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Brentz
Sept 13, 2012 21:39:19 GMT -5
Post by mainesox on Sept 13, 2012 21:39:19 GMT -5
So you'd be cool with Salty hitting 3/4/5 for the Sox next year? No. Because Salty is not a run producer. He is not an RBI guy. There is a difference between having power and being a run producing RBI hitter. The only difference is who hits in front of them.
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Brentz
Sept 13, 2012 21:51:33 GMT -5
Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 13, 2012 21:51:33 GMT -5
Holy 1996 Batman! Are we using Runs Batted In as a way to evaluate players? Quick let's see if Seattle would consider trading us Kyle Seager for Dustin Pedroia.
And as an aside we should start a petition to force MLB to strip Pedro Martinez of his 1997 NL Cy Young Award in order to give it to the deserved winner Danny Neagle. Jesh, Neagle had a whole three more wins than Pedro, how the writers even thought of giving it to Pedro is insane.
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