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Brentz
Oct 16, 2012 8:39:24 GMT -5
Post by sibbysisti on Oct 16, 2012 8:39:24 GMT -5
Ah, yes, Jackie Jensen, number 4 on your program. One of my favorite all-time Sox. As a kid, I used to model my stance after his. Didn't do me much good, though. One third of one of the greatest Sox outfields, Jensen-Piersall-Williams.
Hope Brentz turns out to be half the player JJ was. Jensen had a great arm, though. Agree that Bryce needs to develop better pitch recognition.
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Brentz
Oct 16, 2012 8:48:43 GMT -5
Post by brendan98 on Oct 16, 2012 8:48:43 GMT -5
6 - 17, 1 HR, 1 3B, 1 BB for Brentz so far in the Arizona Fall league. Best Complete OF/Hitting Prospect in our system. Looking forward to his arrival in Boston. I like Brentz, and tend to look at prospects through rose colored glasses, but if you want to look at him objectively, he is a flip of the coin on whether he ends up a solid MLB outfielder or career AAAA type player. His BB/K ratio is very concerning, and could derail him if he is not able to improve his plate discipline. The fact that his OBP trended up from Salem in 2011 to Portland in 2012 is a positive sign. If Brentz can keep making improvement with his plate discipline, I think he has a bright future, but as we have seen with so many prospects, often having to make an adjustment to his approach is much more difficult than making a mechanical adjustment. I like Brentz, but if I had to choose between he and Bradley, I'd likely choose Bradley because he is a safer bet to be a productive MLB outfielder. Now, if I were going to go boom or bust, Brentz would likely be my choice.
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Brentz
Oct 16, 2012 9:05:02 GMT -5
Post by elguapo on Oct 16, 2012 9:05:02 GMT -5
I was encouraged by an interview with Brentz this year when he said he realized what pitchers were doing to get him out and how he was enabling them, and what he needed to adjust to make it stop. He'll need to successfully make those adjustments at the next levels. It sounds obvious but it seems like some talented prospects either don't have that awareness or aren't willing to change.
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badfishnbc
Veteran
Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 417
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Brentz
Oct 16, 2012 11:12:29 GMT -5
Post by badfishnbc on Oct 16, 2012 11:12:29 GMT -5
And as an aside we should start a petition to force MLB to strip Pedro Martinez of his 1997 NL Cy Young Award in order to give it to the deserved winner Danny Neagle. Jesh, Neagle had a whole three more wins than Pedro, how the writers even thought of giving it to Pedro is insane. THIS Danny Neagle: www.linkedin.com/pub/dan-neagle/a/b1a/157? Because that guy sure can contract!
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Brentz
Oct 16, 2012 13:23:54 GMT -5
Post by larrycook on Oct 16, 2012 13:23:54 GMT -5
I was encouraged by an interview with Brentz this year when he said he realized what pitchers were doing to get him out and how he was enabling them, and what he needed to adjust to make it stop. He'll need to successfully make those adjustments at the next levels. It sounds obvious but it seems like some talented prospects either don't have that awareness or aren't willing to change. With Brentz, is it really change or is it just a case of better pitch recognition? Seems to me that he can hit all the different types of pitches, but he also gets fooled into swinging at too many pitches out of the strike zone due to poor pitch recognition.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Brentz
Oct 16, 2012 13:46:50 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2012 13:46:50 GMT -5
Brentz is the real deal. He can hit with power and will fit well into Fenway. He is the reason why the Sox should not lock in Ross too long, because it will block Brentz when he should be taking Ross' place. I think that either Nava or Kalish should start in Left because Nava has a very high OBP with average power, and Kalish is a five-tool guy.
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Brentz
Oct 16, 2012 13:49:31 GMT -5
Post by iakovos11 on Oct 16, 2012 13:49:31 GMT -5
Why is he the real deal? Why are you apparently not concerned at all about his K/BB ration in the minors?
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Brentz
Oct 16, 2012 15:34:11 GMT -5
Post by raftsox on Oct 16, 2012 15:34:11 GMT -5
I was encouraged by an interview with Brentz this year when he said he realized what pitchers were doing to get him out and how he was enabling them, and what he needed to adjust to make it stop. He'll need to successfully make those adjustments at the next levels. It sounds obvious but it seems like some talented prospects either don't have that awareness or aren't willing to change. With Brentz, is it really change or is it just a case of better pitch recognition? Seems to me that he can hit all the different types of pitches, but he also gets fooled into swinging at too many pitches out of the strike zone due to poor pitch recognition. He's not too different than all of these low discipline power hitters, wherein he is streaky. That streaky-ness is derived from the fact that they tend to enlarge the strike zone when they're hot leading to more strike outs and a cold stretch. After a time, they take a deep breath, close the strike zone again, take a few walks and get hot again. When hot, these "hit first" power guys tend to try to hit rather than walk so they generally have low k:bb numbers. I'd be willing to bet that if you graphed these players' k, bb, h numbers and a day-day basis there would be a clear lead-lag relationship between them. bb-->h-->k-->bb...
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Brentz
Oct 16, 2012 15:57:45 GMT -5
Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 16, 2012 15:57:45 GMT -5
I'll take Brentz over JBJ every time. Give me the run producing, middle of the order hitter. I really don't care how much he strikes out. Brentz will be a guy we want at the plate with runners in scoring position. I look forward to his arrival. We need some realism, here. If he were to be at .270 OBP - and I think he'll be better than that - he'd need to slug .530 just to bring it up to .800. This last year in AA/AAA had him at .465 so he'd have a way to go to make it there. For a corner outfielder, .800 is adequate, not great by any means. Contrast that with Bradley who, if he did have a .350 OBP would only have to slug .450 to get to .800. But that's about where he is right now in AA. Why does it matter? Out of all the standard baseball stats for a player, OBP correlates most closely to the number of runs a player brings to a ballclub, either by moving around the bases himself or by moving others around. Pushing across runs is what baseball is about after all. Add slugging to OBP and you get OPS, something easy to calculate which takes you 95% of the way to the really fancy stuff such as wOBA. It's a quick way to get a solid read on a player's worth. And slugging isn't about home runs as much as it is about extra-base hits. In 128 games last year Bradley has 55 of those. Project it out over, say, a 155 game major league season and he's in the mid-60s. Given his defensive skills in centerfield, if he were to get anywhere near that on a regular basis in the majors he'd be very valuable. Brentz is going to have to make some adjustments if he's going to be in the same league, even without considering the difference in age. Bradley's skillset on the other hand is likely to play very quickly at Fenway. As for runs-batted-in, they've been shown to be largely a function of who's in front of you and how good they are at getting on base - there's that OBP thing again. There's a reason why Bradley's ranks as high as he does on this site's prospect list. He already brings a lot to the table.
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Brentz
Oct 16, 2012 16:07:32 GMT -5
Post by dmaineah on Oct 16, 2012 16:07:32 GMT -5
I'll take Brentz over JBJ every time. Give me the run producing, middle of the order hitter. I really don't care how much he strikes out. Brentz will be a guy we want at the plate with runners in scoring position. I look forward to his arrival. As for runs-batted-in, they've been shown to be largely a function of who's in front of you and how good they are at getting on base And that's exactly why we're going to love having Brentz up. In this situation he will produce.
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Brentz
Oct 16, 2012 16:16:07 GMT -5
Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 16, 2012 16:16:07 GMT -5
As for runs-batted-in, they've been shown to be largely a function of who's in front of you and how good they are at getting on base And that's exactly why we're going to love having Brentz up. In this situation he will produce. Except that he'll produce less than Bradley would sitting in the same lineup spot and, right now, he's not a good candidate to bat much higher than fifth, while Bradley would look quite good as a leadoff or number two hitter. It's very much like that fellow you use as your avatar. He was so good because he did both - slug the crap out a baseball and get on base to score runs if they didn't want to pitch to him.
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Brentz
Oct 16, 2012 16:41:15 GMT -5
Post by dmaineah on Oct 16, 2012 16:41:15 GMT -5
And that's exactly why we're going to love having Brentz up. In this situation he will produce. Except that he'll produce less than Bradley would sitting in the same lineup spot and, right now, he's not a good candidate to bat much higher than fifth, while Bradley would look quite good as a leadoff or number two hitter. It's very much like that fellow you use as your avatar. He was so good because he did both - slug the crap out a baseball and get on base to score runs if they didn't want to pitch to him. That's exactly where I predict Brentz to bat, 5th/6th, & do it for 10 yrs driving in runs & everybody will love having him come up with men on base. If JBJ happens to be one of the players crossing the plate that will be great too. I think you'll be very happy.
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Brentz
Oct 16, 2012 19:59:38 GMT -5
Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 16, 2012 19:59:38 GMT -5
That's exactly where I predict Brentz to bat, 5th/6th, & do it for 10 yrs driving in runs & everybody will love having him come up with men on base. If JBJ happens to be one of the players crossing the plate that will be great too. I think you'll be very happy. I'm bullish on Brentz, but unless the guy gets on base more, he won't wind up playing 10 years and if his OBP barely exceeds .300, then he isn't going to be that good at driving in runs either. It's not like he's going to have a .350 OBP when men are on and .275 when they're not. He doesn't have that special a skill as you seem to think RBIs are. What I do like about Brentz is that he has a self awareness that he needs to improve his plate discipline and he's not going to be cocky and let his ego get in the way of trying to learn to become a better offensive player. To me, that's a positive and it gives me hope that he'll learn to adjust and find a way to hit .265 with a .330 OBP and a .475 SA. That doesn't scream all-star to me, but it does make me think: useful player - but this is all predicated on him making forward steps. If he doesn't, he's not going to be any good - he'd be a .300 OBP with a .425 SA. Those kinds of guys who do that and are corner OF don't remain regulars for long.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,907
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Brentz
Oct 17, 2012 13:28:36 GMT -5
Post by nomar on Oct 17, 2012 13:28:36 GMT -5
That's exactly where I predict Brentz to bat, 5th/6th, & do it for 10 yrs driving in runs & everybody will love having him come up with men on base. If JBJ happens to be one of the players crossing the plate that will be great too. I think you'll be very happy. I'm bullish on Brentz, but unless the guy gets on base more, he won't wind up playing 10 years and if his OBP barely exceeds .300, then he isn't going to be that good at driving in runs either. It's not like he's going to have a .350 OBP when men are on and .275 when they're not. He doesn't have that special a skill as you seem to think RBIs are. What I do like about Brentz is that he has a self awareness that he needs to improve his plate discipline and he's not going to be cocky and let his ego get in the way of trying to learn to become a better offensive player. To me, that's a positive and it gives me hope that he'll learn to adjust and find a way to hit .265 with a .330 OBP and a .475 SA. That doesn't scream all-star to me, but it does make me think: useful player - but this is all predicated on him making forward steps. If he doesn't, he's not going to be any good - he'd be a .300 OBP with a .425 SA. Those kinds of guys who do that and are corner OF don't remain regulars for long. Agreed. This is the year for him to show he can improve his approach. Otherwise he'll be Delmon Young.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Brentz
Oct 17, 2012 19:08:21 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2012 19:08:21 GMT -5
Why is he the real deal? Why are you apparently not concerned at all about his K/BB ration in the minors? I am concerned about his K/BB rate-but don't forget, Middlebrooks struck out alot in the minors and did not walk alot. I think that Brentz will gain experience and his K/BB rate will improve
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Brentz
Oct 17, 2012 19:15:19 GMT -5
Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 17, 2012 19:15:19 GMT -5
Will Middlebrooks is an above average defensive thrid basemen. Bryce Brentz is a averageish (slightly below average reange, but plus arm) corner outfielder. If WMB fails to improve his K and BB rates, he would be still be an asset as the bar for average production at third base is rather low. Brentz however does not have that luxury.
IA slugging heavy OPS of .750 plays really well at third, but rather medocorely at RF/LF.
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Brentz
Oct 18, 2012 9:34:52 GMT -5
Post by James Dunne on Oct 18, 2012 9:34:52 GMT -5
It's also not just about K/BB ratio. Both were in their age-23 seasons this past year, and Middlebrooks slugged 30 points higher in the majors than Brentz did in Double-A. They have similar weaknesses in terms of pitch selection, but Middlebrooks punishes bad pitches with much more frequency than Brentz.
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Brentz
Oct 18, 2012 16:11:02 GMT -5
Post by welovewally on Oct 18, 2012 16:11:02 GMT -5
Agreed. This is the year for him to show he can improve his approach. Otherwise he'll be Delmon Young. What would be wrong with that? Have you been watching the playoffs this year? Or last year? Delmon Young is awesome. An RBI Machine who is crushing the ball and hitting BIG Home Runs. And very productive stats again this year in his role as the RH hitter in LF & DH.
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Brentz
Oct 18, 2012 16:22:54 GMT -5
Post by jioh on Oct 18, 2012 16:22:54 GMT -5
Do you care if he hits .220 with a .270 OBP? If he hits 25 HR with 100 RBI, no. If all he is is a great defender, then yes. And I don't see Brentz hitting that low. This is pretty much complete nonsense. If Brentz has a .270 OBP or even a 300 OBP and knocks in 100 runs, it'll be because he's up in situtations in which a GOOD hitter would knock in about 150 runs. Yeah, I just pulled that number out of thin air. But if Brentz is making outs in 73% of his plate appearances, there will a lot of ducks wilting on the pond.
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Brentz
Oct 18, 2012 16:24:14 GMT -5
Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 18, 2012 16:24:14 GMT -5
Agreed. This is the year for him to show he can improve his approach. Otherwise he'll be Delmon Young. What would be wrong with that? Have you been watching the playoffs this year? Or last year? Delmon Young is awesome. An RBI Machine who is crushing the ball and hitting BIG Home Runs. And very productive stats again this year in his role as the RH hitter in LF & DH. RBI machine? How many did he have? 75? And more importantly at what point in this century is RBI a good evaluating tool for a player? Delmon Young is a chronic underachiever. The fact that the Yanks haven't been able to get him out consistently like other teams is mind-boggling, but other than a mediocre player having a good post-season, Delmon Young, serious attitude problems aside, isn't a player I'd want on the Red Sox and isn't something I'd like to see Brentz become.
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Brentz
Oct 18, 2012 16:35:08 GMT -5
Post by jioh on Oct 18, 2012 16:35:08 GMT -5
Agreed. This is the year for him to show he can improve his approach. Otherwise he'll be Delmon Young. What would be wrong with that? Have you been watching the playoffs this year? Or last year? Delmon Young is awesome. An RBI Machine who is crushing the ball and hitting BIG Home Runs. And very productive stats again this year in his role as the RH hitter in LF & DH. Delmon Young productive this year? Some good playoff games, but this season he had 74 rbis in about 600 PAs mostly batting 5th with Austin Jackson (393 obp), Andy Dirks (370), Prince Fielder (412) and Miguel Cabrera (393) constantly on-base in front of him. That's terrible production.
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Brentz
Oct 18, 2012 17:01:47 GMT -5
Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 18, 2012 17:01:47 GMT -5
Delmon Young is easily one of the five worst everyday players in baseball.
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Brentz
Oct 18, 2012 17:12:35 GMT -5
Post by welovewally on Oct 18, 2012 17:12:35 GMT -5
Well I think he's been productive in the role he has on Detroit and has been for the past 3yrs. Hate on him all you want I just hope you won't spread your hate on Brentz the same way if all he does is hit 270 with 20 HRs & 80 RBIs like Young seems to do in a platoon role every year, & with big hits in the post season.
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Brentz
Oct 18, 2012 17:31:37 GMT -5
Post by chavopepe2 on Oct 18, 2012 17:31:37 GMT -5
Well I think he's been productive in the role he has on Detroit and has been for the past 3yrs. Hate on him all you want I just hope you won't spread your hate on Brentz the same way if all he does is hit 270 with 20 HRs & 80 RBIs like Young seems to do in a platoon role every year, & with big hits in the post season. I honestly thought you were being sarcastic with your first post... Delmon Young has been a terrible baseball player in five of his six full seasons. That is not an opinion. That is a fact. He had one respectable year. He's had as many seasons with a negative WAR as he's had with a positive WAR. I know this has already been said by others, but using RBI as a statistical measure of success immediately discredits everything you are saying. You may think that Brentz will be a good #5 or #6 hitter, and that is fine (it is probably his absolute ceiling, so if you are high on him and mix in a little homerism, I don't have a problem with the opinion), but don't support your argument by saying he will be an RBI machine. The fact that RBIs are virtually meaningless when analyzing a players ability is founded in significant research. It is as real as evolution and to deny it simply shows a lack of sophistication.
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Brentz
Oct 18, 2012 17:41:50 GMT -5
Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 18, 2012 17:41:50 GMT -5
Is it me our has the general quality of posts made have gotten much worse since the 2011 collapse.
I see people using RBI's as a significant player evaluating tool, others simply taking taking the position that being pessimistic is equal to being realistic, arguing that Delmon Young is an above player, arguing that Bryce Brentz is somehow a blue-chip prospect, that Ellsburry could net us Andrus straight up, ans so forth.
It all makes me miss the days when the most irrational posts had to do with arguing intangible characteristics of Ryan Lavarnway.
And to casually compare Brentz to Jensen.. WTF. Over his carreer Jensen walked at a higher clip than he he struck out. I can not think of a worse comp.
Edited: I posted this quickly and sloppily at work
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