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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 11, 2013 4:48:15 GMT -5
the useless Stephen Wright Wright at Pawtucket in July through September, including post-season: 12 GS, ER allowed distribution 000000001256 1.68 ERA .238 / .317 / .303 allowed .550 GB%, 11 GDP. In MLB in that half-season, he had 2 games with a combined 8.2 5 0 0 3 5 line, and the one start in a dome where his knuckler was literally uncatchable. Between AAA and MLB, he allowed an .004 HR / Contact (1 HR in 267). For comparison, among pitchers with 80+ IP, Buchholz was 3rd in MLB with .014 (the Marlin's Henderson Alvarez was .006, and the Rockies' Tyler Chatwood also .014). This breakthrough, halfway through his third year throwing the knuckler, maybe shouldn't be considered a surprise. In Tim Wakefield's third year throwing the knuckler, he had a 3.12 ERA in AA (26 G) and AAA (1). Wright had a 2.54 ERA in AA (21) and AAA (4) in his second year throwing the pitch. In Wakefield's fourth year he had a 3.06 ERA in 20 starts in AA, but it seems likely that he was much better in his last stretch of games, because the Pirates, desperate for a starter in a pennant race, called him up on July 31, and he put up a 2.15 ERA in 13 starts. What if we'd been in that situation? It sure seems to me that Wright's third season could have mirrored Wakefield's fourth, had we needed him. In his last 15 games, he was lights-out 12 times and terrible 3 times. Of course, the Jekyll / Hyde thing is common with knuckleballers. Being Jekyll 80% of the time is not. To say he's the most underrated prospect in the system is a massive understatement. People will be leaving him off their top 30 lists, and sooner or later (I'm not excluding the possibility of a Wakefield-like temporary setback) that's likely to be as embarrassing as the omission of Daniel Nava. I might have him as high as 15.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 11, 2013 10:04:10 GMT -5
Wright's contributions this year even in those two long relief appearances alone were well worth keeping him on the 40-man. He provided more value to the Sox than Michael Olmsted or Josh Fields did to their clubs.
(Of course, he was behind Ryan Pressly and well behind David Carpenter, but I don't think anyone was worried about those two at the time)
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 11, 2013 13:02:13 GMT -5
Wright has never..Ever.. Put together an entire season that was really solid all the way around. It's why am so against a 29YO anything, knucleballer, anything at all that's never had an even average minor league season to use a valuable 40 man roster position because they had 2 decent relief outings at the MLB level and yep.. Those were 2 good relief outings but they only make for 2 appearances, not an entire season, even a good 2 weeks.
He's not the only one facing the possible bubble/getting moved either. Wouldn't be a shocker to see Wilson and Villarreal moved to clear space, one ( or both) even DFA'd.
There are multiple pitchers on the 40 man with more talent and upside than Wright.
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Post by hammerhead on Oct 11, 2013 13:33:18 GMT -5
Wright's season at AAA this season was above average. His kind of depth has value. Not saying he is a no-brainer to keep, but he should be a trade chip at the least.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Oct 11, 2013 14:47:33 GMT -5
Is a 95 MPH fastball more "talent" than a knuckleball? Maybe or maybe not, but I know there are a LOT more guys who can do the former and only a handful who can do the latter. Age means absolutely nothing to a knuckleball pitcher considering all of the successful ones pitched (or are pitching) well into thier late thirties. So the fact that he is 29 means absolutely nothing. Now obviously Wright probably won't be a future ace, but there's no reason in 1-3 years he coudlnt be a 200 inning, mid 4 ERA, cost controlled #5 starter for the next 5+ years. There's a ton of value in that.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Oct 11, 2013 14:49:52 GMT -5
Wright has never..Ever.. Put together an entire season that was really solid all the way around.. And how is a 3.46 ERA, 1.441 WHIP with 99K's in 135.1 IP not a "solid season"?
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 11, 2013 15:16:58 GMT -5
Wright has never..Ever.. Put together an entire season that was really solid all the way around.. And how is a 3.46 ERA, 1.441 WHIP with 99K's in 135.1 IP not a "solid season"? And the thing is, it will probably play nearly as well at the ML level. 'Experience' doesn't seem to grant more skill in hitting a knuckleball. I'm not sure that you can say that about a minor to major league transition for one with a conventional repertoire.
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Post by elguapo on Oct 11, 2013 15:31:06 GMT -5
Wright has never..Ever.. Put together an entire season that was really solid all the way around.. And how is a 3.46 ERA, 1.441 WHIP with 99K's in 135.1 IP not a "solid season"? Going back to 2012, that's two solid seasons in a row. Not that he doesn't have his share of warts, and of course the results don't look so good if you judge on K/BB -- but objectively he's had a lot of success within his first three years as a knuckleballer.
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ericmvan
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Posts: 8,947
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 11, 2013 15:58:03 GMT -5
It's why am so against a 29YO anything, knucleballer, anything at all that's never had an even average minor league season to use a valuable 40 man roster position because they had 2 decent relief outings at the MLB level and yep.. Those were 2 good relief outings but they only make for 2 appearances, not an entire season, even a good 2 weeks. Well, there were those two relief appearances, and there was also probably being the most effective pitcher in the entire minor leagues from July 1 on.(I don't know that for certain, and it's not worth checking exactly where he ranks, but any non-knuckleballer putting up a 1.68 ERA in AAA gets called up, and even a knuckleballer that good in most organizations gets called up.) We don't know whether this half-season was partially a hot streak, or simply how good he is now. We do know that at this point in their careers throwing a knuckler, Wakefield wasn't as good and R.A. Dickey wasn't anywhere as good. (Charlie Hough is the one other guy I've checked, and he seemed to learn the pitch instantly.) There's a decent chance that Wright's true talent is in the neighborhood of what he did from July on, and that means that there's some recognizable chance he has the most talent and upside of any pitcher in the system. While the error bars on his performance are much greater than they would be for a conventional pitcher, his high upside is obvious, given the numbers he put up and the fact that, despite his age, he can reasonably be expected to pitch 15 years if he turns out to be that good (or close to it). Edit: The bottom line is this. We know that great knuckleball pitchers exist. It's stupid to pretend they don't. Right now, Steven Wright looks more like a future great knuckleball pitcher than anyone in the system looks like a future great conventional pitcher, except maybe for Owens. Now, that doesn't make him the best prospect, simply because, as I just said and we all know, the variability in his performance going forward is much greater. But it certainly places him in a class with the likes of Workman.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 11, 2013 17:05:40 GMT -5
That goes way too far.
Workman has been solid his entire minor league career with no struggles, except for maybe being thrust into the relief role at the major league level and was solid as a SP there even.
This love over a 29YO knuckleballer is just not understandable. Probably all because the team had the great Wake for so many years is only reason I can think of, same reason the team grabs up every other cast off from organization they can who tries one out (Hagaer) and lets them try their luck here.
As for that post above about knuckleballers? Yeah.. I have seen them all.. From Wilhelm, to Wilbur Wood, Niekro brothers, Hough, that wasn't a true one btw and Wake. Lots of guys in between that flopped with it in between like Dennis Springer.
Guys made comebacks with it (Bouton) guys made livelihoods off of it Candioti, and above named, but mostly guys tinkered with it after blowing out their arms, or just weren't good enough to pitch with anything else, much like Wright and Haeger.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 12, 2013 8:03:43 GMT -5
That goes way too far. Workman has been solid his entire minor league career with no struggles, except for maybe being thrust into the relief role at the major league level and was solid as a SP there even. This love over a 29YO knuckleballer is just not understandable. Probably all because the team had the great Wake for so many years is only reason I can think of, same reason the team grabs up every other cast off from organization they can who tries one out (Hagaer) and lets them try their luck here. As for that post above about knuckleballers? Yeah.. I have seen them all.. From Wilhelm, to Wilbur Wood, Niekro brothers, Hough, that wasn't a true one btw and Wake. Lots of guys in between that flopped with it in between like Dennis Springer. Guys made comebacks with it (Bouton) guys made livelihoods off of it Candioti, and above named, but mostly guys tinkered with it after blowing out their arms, or just weren't good enough to pitch with anything else, much like Wright and Haeger. In the final analysis, isn't everyone essentially agreeing here? Wright has had some success at AAA, you can never tell for certain how ANY player's performance will translate to the Majors until it actually occurs, and knuckleballers, by their very nature, are more of a crapshoot than other pitchers because of the vagaries of the pitch. I expect to see Wright in the Sox organization in the spring. Beyond that, who knows what happens?
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Post by Kevin Pereira on Oct 12, 2013 22:40:34 GMT -5
The thing with knuckleballers is they usually develop later in their career, as we've seen with Dickey. I think the Red Sox are keeping him based on the potential of having a developmental breakout season like Dickey and Wakefield and not his current value to the club (which isn't awful, by the way, he did -- as Chris mentioned -- should he can fill in as a reliever).
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 14, 2013 0:12:16 GMT -5
The thing with knuckleballers is they usually develop later in their career, as we've seen with Dickey. I think the Red Sox are keeping him based on the potential of having a developmental breakout season like Dickey and Wakefield and not his current value to the club (which isn't awful, by the way, he did -- as Chris mentioned -- should he can fill in as a reliever). And the thing I'm trying to point out (not that anyone seems to be listening) is that he's had half of that breakthrough season already. He'll start next year in AAA, and if he has a 2.50 ERA or below in mid-June, you know you've struck gold. If he's up in the high 3's, you know that his second half of this year was only partial progress. A knuckleballer has two tasks. The first is to develop the pitch to the point where it gets MLB hitters out, when he's throwing it well. Wright has obviously mastered that. The second challenge is to achieve a good ratio of good to bad outings. Wright's ratio in his second half of last year was fabulous. Next we'll see what that ratio is likely to be going forward, by increasing the sample size.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Oct 14, 2013 7:29:58 GMT -5
This love over a 29YO knuckleballer is just not understandable. Again...what does his age have to do with it?
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 14, 2013 14:16:52 GMT -5
This love over a 29YO knuckleballer is just not understandable. Again...what does his age have to do with it? A knuckleballer is one long stretch away from being tossed into the scrap heap is why before they have established themselves. Boston, as much as they have shown with Haeger shows that. He has been been bounced around with a knuckleball that's just erratic in a not good way. Wright? At 29? History will say that Wilhelm was about that age when he made it to the MLB for good. Thinking both Niekro brothers were a bit younger than that without looking, but not much. It boils down to 40 man slots and how deep a system is/what a team has to protect after that. I'd think a Hazelbaker, even at 26/27 next season has a better chance to be taken and help a team (even Boston without Ells) than does an inconsistent 29YO knuckleballer. Hazelbaker has power and speed. he could help in an emergency and possibly be another Brandon Moss type. Not calling for him to be protected here. Just to go out and protect people that are in danger and later on might be of use, such as Matty Price
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,947
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 14, 2013 14:57:14 GMT -5
John, you should recuse yourself from this discussion, because you're irrational on the subject, and with every post you demonstrate that you're completely impervious to the facts. You're making the Obama birthers and moon-landing deniers look like Talmudic scholars.
I've pointed out in almost every post that Wright had a great second half. The word "inconsistent," when used by rational humans, implies middling results. Allowing 0 earned runs in 8 starts out of 12, and 2 or fewer in 10 of 12, is not being "inconsistent." It's being "unbelievably good." He is inconsistent in your mind because you decided that a while ago, and he could probably throw thirty straight shutouts and he'd still be inconsistent.
You mention in every post that he failed at conventional pitching, but this is true of every knuckleball pitcher. That it's therefore completely irrelevant to eventual knuckleball success is obvious to every human being on the planet but you.
You mention in every post that he's 29 years old, but I've mentioned repeatedly that he has only been throwing the knuckler for three years, and is much better at it, at this point in his career, than Wakefield or Dickey were. That what is important here is not his age, but how long he has been throwing the knuckler, is obvious not only to every human being but you, but to most crows and parrots and many octopi.
It's so obvious that everyone feels that explaining it to you is a waste of energy, and so instead they keep on asking you rhetorically what relevance his age has, and your reply is to repeat the fact that he's 29. That level of conversational incompetence would embarrass a chatbot.
You did warn us that your mind was made up on this subject. You should have left it at that.
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Post by jmei on Oct 14, 2013 15:03:14 GMT -5
I'd think a Hazelbaker, even at 26/27 next season has a better chance to be taken and help a team (even Boston without Ells) than does an inconsistent 29YO knuckleballer. Hazelbaker has power and speed. he could help in an emergency and possibly be another Brandon Moss type. Not calling for him to be protected here. Just to go out and protect people that are in danger and later on might be of use, such as Matty Price You really think a player who hit .257/.313/.374 as a 25-year-old in Pawtucket, played more LF than CF, and was not selected last year when he was coming off a much better year and was more of a prospect is worth protecting? Steven Wright has already been more "of use" than Hazelbaker or Price will probably ever be.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 14, 2013 15:04:06 GMT -5
Probably will back out on Wright, as Wake's career has many here looking at every knuckleballer with hearts in love.. Remember this..
3 months does NOT a career make.
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Post by jmei on Oct 14, 2013 15:12:05 GMT -5
\Probably will back out on Wright, as Wake's career has many here looking at every knuckleballer with hearts in love.. Remember this.. Here's the thing, though-- if you totally ignored the fact that he's a knuckleballer (and thus also his age) and just look at his statistical performance, there's no chance you or anyone else would think that Hazelbaker or Price or any of the other marginal Rule 5 guys would be worth a roster spot over him. He put up a 2.54 ERA in 141.2 IP last year across two levels and followed it up with 135.1 IP of 3.46 ERA ball at Pawtucket. It's only because he's a knuckleballer that you think he's not worth a roster spot.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 14, 2013 16:00:51 GMT -5
I really need to back out of this thread.. Nothing is getting taken correctly and even when I post "not that I would protect hazelbaker" the next post is followed up as if indeed it's if am posting as such. my post was meant to imply that he is capable of playing the 3 OF positions only and nothing more. His value to the team for what he is capable of.
Price? yes. he has upside as a 6-7th IP reliever in a couple of years, as does Kurcz, who probably (Kurcz) is in no danger of being selected. I was in that crowd last year wanting Fields protected when the team (and some fans) thought the pen was plenty deep as well heading into the winter months.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 14, 2013 16:16:26 GMT -5
I think Wright does have significant value as starter depth and could even be a decent 5th starter for a lot of secondary market teams right now. He's dirt cheap and if a team is just a little lucky they could get a guy who could roll off 10-15 wins potentially because he does have great stuff and the potential to control it fairly well. I'm not enamored with the prospect of him with the Redsox beyond starter depth though. It's too unpredictable. He's a great fit for some other teams but we need to be able to count on our 5th starter since we are hopefully perennial contenders again.
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Post by hammerhead on Oct 14, 2013 16:27:37 GMT -5
Why on earth would you use Josh Fields as your go to guy when trying to make a point about Rule 5 picks. Josh Fields made the Boston front office look really smart.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 14, 2013 17:21:10 GMT -5
Why on earth would you use Josh Fields as your go to guy when trying to make a point about Rule 5 picks. Josh Fields made the Boston front office look really smart. I gotcha. Fields was one of those guys.. 27 think it was when he was left exposed? He finally found himself some thought after years of languishing at Seattle and he had some upside with a decent mid-upper 90's FB. Not a closer, but once again a 6-7th IP middle reliever in a pinch, nothing more. No more valuable than another Wilson, Villarreal (now), but another arm with possibly more upside at the time since he seemed to have blossomed all at once. Now could even see Boston removing Wilson over Villareal for that same reason. It's all typical roster discussion that makes us all fans and passions deep. Imagine what the NYY are doing right now? How many castoffs are they going to end up with on their 40 man, or rule 5's are they going to end up with to replenish their roster, same with some other teams? Nice in many ways to have a system to be dickering back and forth over the merits of keeping a journeyman minor league knuckleballer on the 40 man roster and the merits of such.
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Post by jmei on Oct 14, 2013 18:16:02 GMT -5
I really need to back out of this thread.. Nothing is getting taken correctly and even when I post "not that I would protect hazelbaker" the next post is followed up as if indeed it's if am posting as such. my post was meant to imply that he is capable of playing the 3 OF positions only and nothing more. His value to the team for what he is capable of. Price? yes. he has upside as a 6-7th IP reliever in a couple of years, as does Kurcz, who probably (Kurcz) is in no danger of being selected. I was in that crowd last year wanting Fields protected when the team (and some fans) thought the pen was plenty deep as well heading into the winter months. Sorry, I only read the first part where you said you'd rather have Hazelbaker than Wright. Sidenote (and this should really go into the 40-man thread, but...): there just isn't much of a 40-man crunch this offseason. There are only three Rule 5 adds (Ranaudo, Cecchini, Brentz), with not many close calls (there's little chance that Price, a 25-year-old reliever who topped out in A+, even gets picked, and even less chance that he sticks). There's also a fair amount of flotsam that I would probably lose before thinking about DFAing Wright (think Kalish, Beato, Snyder, Villarreal, Holt, and Berry). Wright has two options left, and is capable of both serving as emergency depth but also has some upside left, and there's little reason to think his roster spot is really vulnerable this offseason.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 14, 2013 20:20:44 GMT -5
JMEI,
Unless I missed it? There is only a 2012 40 man roster topic (winter) from back in Feb/2012 here on the site.
You want to start a new one if that's the case?
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