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2014 MLB Draft discussion
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Post by Gwell55 on Feb 11, 2014 20:13:57 GMT -5
The more I look at the wheel format, the more I like it. One thing about giving every team the same amount of money to work with, is it helps teams drafting further down more players to help offset their lower draft position. sure the Red Sox spent more on over-slot signings than other teams, but how many of those over-slot signings equaled the bonuses of the top players in the draft? Sure they hit on a good number of the signings so it looks better now than it historically is, but going into a given draft, would you rather have a top 5 pick or 2 or 3 picks from 28-50? I think you guys are working way to much in overdrive as .... you can't see the forest for the trees.
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Post by amfox1 on Feb 17, 2014 19:01:39 GMT -5
Giving effect to Jimenez signing:
Current 2014 MLB Draft Order (June 5-7, 2014)
1st Round (Protected) 1. HOU 2. MIA 3. CWS 4. CHC 5. MIN 6. SEA 7. PHI 8. COL 9. TOR 10. NYM 11. TOR (Phil Bickford compensation pick)
1st Round (Unprotected) 12. MIL 13. SD 14. SF 15. LAA 16. ARI (BAL lost draft pick - Jimenez) (MFY lost draft pick - McCann) 17. KC 18. WAS 19. CIN (TEX lost draft pick - Choo) 20. TB 21. CLE 22. LAD 23. DET 24. PIT 25. OAK 26. ATL 27. BOS 28. STL
Supplemental Round (picks for unsigned players with QO designations will slot in here, subject to #36 pick being fixed in place) (SEA would slot here - Morales)* (KC would slot here - Santana) 29. CIN (Choo) (TEX would slot here - Cruz) 30. CLE (Jimenez) 31. ATL (McCann) 32. BOS (Ellsbury) (BOS would slot here - Drew) 33. STL (Beltran)
Competitive Balance Lottery Round A 34. COL 35. HOU (traded from BAL) 36. MIA (Matt Krook compensation pick) 37. CLE 38. MIA 39. KC 40. MIL
2nd Round (picks 41-68, SEA lost draft pick - Cano*, NYM lost draft pick - Granderson) 67. BOS
Competitive Balance Lottery Round B (after Round 2) 69. ARI (traded from SD) 70. ARI 71. STL 72. TB 73. PIT 74. SEA
3rd Round (picks 75-104) 103. BOS
Compensation Pick (after Round 3) 105. MIA (Ben DiLuzio compensation pick)
Unsigned Players With QO Designations (4, in draft order): Morales (SEA) Santana (KC) Cruz (TEX) Drew (BOS)
* At such time as Morales signs with another team, SEA's compensation pick will be forfeited and its second round pick will be reinstated.
Current picks in top 105 (top three rounds):
6 - MIA 5 - ARI/STL/CLE 4 - HOU/COL/TOR/MIL/KC/CIN/TB/PIT/ATL/BOS 3 - everyone else (12 teams) 2 - BAL/NYM/TEX/MFY
(SEA/KC/TEX/BOS can all add supplemental picks for the remaining QOFAs (Morales/Santana/Cruz/Drew, respectively), and the team that signs them (if not their 2013 team) will lose a pick)
Note that MFY would lose pick #55, BAL would lose pick #56, TEX would lose pick #61, SEA would lose pick #74 and NYM would lose pick #84; all other teams would lose a pick in the top 50 for signing one of the remaining QOFAs.
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Post by kman22 on Feb 17, 2014 19:49:28 GMT -5
Best case scenario, Pittsburgh signs Morales, Toronto signs Santana, Cruz signs with Minnesota, and Drew signs with the Mets.
The Red Sox end up with picks #25,#33,#34,#66, and #106?
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Post by taftreign on Feb 17, 2014 21:47:23 GMT -5
Best case scenario, Pittsburgh signs Morales, Toronto signs Santana, Cruz signs with Minnesota, and Drew signs with the Mets. The Red Sox end up with picks #25,#33,#34,#66, and #106? Toronto, Minnesota and the Mets all have protected picks so I believe Boston would only move up 1 to 26th followed by pick 34 and 35 in the supplemental. Both of Torontos 1sts are protected.
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Post by stevedillard on Feb 17, 2014 22:19:35 GMT -5
One additional comment is that Morales signing will not push the 32/33 picks back. That means only 2 (Santana/Cruz) possible moves back, and 3 possible moves ahead with lost picks.
Toronto seems a likely destination for Santana. Would be nice if Cleveland jumped in
It would be nice if Cruz resigned with Texas.
Need to get Drew signed elsewhere to get the pick. Saw a rumor that Baltimore might now be in play now that the have no first pick and still need a 2b and possible Hardy replacement.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 18, 2014 9:10:12 GMT -5
How bizarre is it that Houston does not have its own competitive balance pick and St. Louis does?
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Post by jmei on Feb 18, 2014 9:19:41 GMT -5
Because Houston is the fourth largest city in the U.S., while St. Louis is the 58th?
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 18, 2014 9:22:42 GMT -5
Because Houston is the fifth largest media market in the U.S.? And probably make 1/2 as much in baseball revenues as the Cardinals if that.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 18, 2014 9:44:27 GMT -5
Because Houston is the fourth largest city in the U.S., while St. Louis is the 58th? OK, but then why doesn't Cincinnati have a competitive balance pick? Smaller city than St. Louis in terms of population, worse record last year, and slightly smaller budget.
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Post by jmei on Feb 18, 2014 9:50:33 GMT -5
Because Houston is the fourth largest city in the U.S., while St. Louis is the 58th? OK, but then why doesn't Cincinnati have a competitive balance pick? Smaller city than St. Louis in terms of population, worse record last year, and slightly smaller budget. Because there's a lottery, with the teams with the 10 smallest markets and the 10 lowest revenues eligible to be entered. The Reds and the Athletics are the only two teams that were eligible that didn't get a Competitive Balance pick this year.
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Post by jmei on Feb 18, 2014 9:51:21 GMT -5
Because Houston is the fifth largest media market in the U.S.? And probably make 1/2 as much in baseball revenues as the Cardinals if that. Houston wasn't in the bottom 10, which is the criteria to be entered into the Competitive Balance Lottery. ADD: I'd be far more upset about why the Orioles and the Mariners were eligible for picks, but the Twins weren't.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 18, 2014 9:54:03 GMT -5
www.tvb.org/media/file/TVB_Market_Profiles_Nielsen_TVHH_DMA_Ranks_2013-2014.pdfIf we're going solely by media market sizes, Denver who has the first competitive balance pick, has the 17th largest media market in the US. Tampa has the 14th largest market and they get a pick. Minnesota is the 15th largest market and they don't get a pick. no Edit - nevermind after reading above. The whole thing is stupid. It doesn't really make the league any more competitive and there's really no semblance of fairness. Maybe if they cared about parity, they'd collect all baseball revenues and distribute them equally. Too bad if you don't like it, good luck getting anti-trust exemption on your own.
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Post by sibbysisti on Feb 18, 2014 11:00:00 GMT -5
Best case scenario, Pittsburgh signs Morales, Toronto signs Santana, Cruz signs with Minnesota, and Drew signs with the Mets. The Red Sox end up with picks #25,#33,#34,#66, and #106? Wouldn't it be better for PIT to sign Drew.? It could use a shortstop and its pick is unprotected.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 18, 2014 11:37:58 GMT -5
Best case scenario, Pittsburgh signs Morales, Toronto signs Santana, Cruz signs with Minnesota, and Drew signs with the Mets. The Red Sox end up with picks #25,#33,#34,#66, and #106? Wouldn't it be better for PIT to sign Drew.? It could use a shortstop and its pick is unprotected. I don't know about anyone else, but I don't care who signs him as long as I never have to read another article about him and how the closer he gets to taking a 1 year $500k contract, the more likely the Sox are going to sign him.
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Post by kman22 on Feb 18, 2014 16:11:06 GMT -5
Best case scenario, Pittsburgh signs Morales, Toronto signs Santana, Cruz signs with Minnesota, and Drew signs with the Mets. The Red Sox end up with picks #25,#33,#34,#66, and #106? Wouldn't it be better for PIT to sign Drew.? It could use a shortstop and its pick is unprotected. Yes, that would be better. I haven't heard them connected to Drew though. I was just basing this on who had been connected to them. I forgot the Bickford pick was protected, that's why my numbers were off. That and the lack of a compensation pick for Morales.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Feb 18, 2014 16:53:34 GMT -5
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Post by jdb on Feb 18, 2014 18:43:53 GMT -5
Some interesting names around our picks. Cosart, Gatewood and I didn't see him on that list but I like Monte Harrison's write ups.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Feb 18, 2014 19:21:57 GMT -5
Yeah as a guy that likes high risk, high reward type of players I like his write ups too, specially since some say he showed good apptitude as a hitter. Another guy I like is Ti'quan Forbes because I buy into being young for your class, the Red Sox don't seem to buy into that as much since they have drafted from both categories (young and old) pretty regularly.
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Post by kman22 on Feb 18, 2014 20:47:45 GMT -5
That seems way, way lower than Gatewood has been ranked previously this winter. If somehow Toussaint and Gatewood ended up as part of the Red Sox organization, I'd be ecstatic. I expect to see at least one of them climbing big time between now and the draft.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Feb 18, 2014 22:45:34 GMT -5
I believe He is down on Gatewood because he struggled in games during the summer, with strikeouts in particular. Others see the power and rank him higher so it will depend on his spring.
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Post by jdb on Feb 19, 2014 16:16:28 GMT -5
FYI Law has Gatewood in tier two 2-5. He has it's broken down in four tiers with 25 guys and Rondon alone in tier one. Like Pedro said this far in advance it's really a crap shoot. Some at the top now will come back to earth, drop for bonus demands or get injured like Manea last year. insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1254
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Post by pedroelgrande on Feb 19, 2014 17:23:18 GMT -5
Just off the top of my head guys like JBJ, Swihart, Barnes, Casey Kelly, Daniel Bard, Marrero were guys that at this time in their respective draft everyone thought there was no way they fell to the Red Sox. The new rules clarify this a little bit but still you saw a guy like Stanek last year who was considered top 5 at this time last year end up in the back end of the 1st round. Not to mention Manaea.
In an early preview article from BA they posted their top 30 and Braxton Davidson was in the back end, others have him much higher like McDaniel, but if he somehow drops (not likely IMO) I'd love it.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 19, 2014 19:34:55 GMT -5
Just off the top of my head guys like JBJ, Swihart, Barnes, Casey Kelly, Daniel Bard, Marrero were guys that at this time in their respective draft everyone thought there was no way they fell to the Red Sox. The new rules clarify this a little bit but still you saw a guy like Stanek last year who was considered top 5 at this time last year end up in the back end of the 1st round. Not to mention Manaea. In an early preview article from BA they posted their top 30 and Braxton Davidson was in the back end, others have him much higher like McDaniel, but if he somehow drops (not likely IMO) I'd love it. Most of those are college players whose stock dropped due to poor performance or injury, though. Most of the time high school guys don't suffer huge drops because they are being drafted on upside.
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Post by grandsalami on Feb 21, 2014 19:02:46 GMT -5
you are screwed PHI…
Aaron Fitt ?@aaronfitt 22s BREAKING: Oregon State's Ben Wetzler will be suspended for 20 percent of the season, which includes time he's already missed.
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Post by grandsalami on Feb 21, 2014 19:23:51 GMT -5
Kendall Rogers ?@kendallrogerspg 2m MORE: “We believe penalty of 20 percent of the season is too harsh on [Wetzler] given mitigating factors.” #OregonState #Beavers #MLBDraft
Aaron Fitt ?@aaronfitt 4m OSU: "Although the evidence was unclear, the NCAA found that Wetzler’s adviser did have prohibited contact"—with the Phillies on his behalf.
You mean like every college player drafted?
Aaron Fitt ?@aaronfitt 3m Oregon State's Steve Clark also said, "It is our understanding the #phillies reported it" in November.
yup. Phi is a bunch of a%%%%%%
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