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Post by mainesox on Nov 26, 2013 22:41:14 GMT -5
Carp has hit lefties better than righties in his career. In agreement - absent strong evidence of a particular split, we should assume he will have the standard L-R split going forward - 20 point of OPS or something, is it? Yeah, this. I don't remember who it is on here who always says there's no such thing as reverse splits, but I pretty much subscribe to that idea, so I don't think he should be expected to continue to hit lefties better than righties, but at the very least there's nothing to suggest a larger than average platoon split, and you could even argue that it might be evidence of a smaller than average split.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 26, 2013 22:46:51 GMT -5
Carp has hit lefties better than righties in his career. That is a good point BUT if the Red Sox are holding onto Carp because last year is indicative of what they can expect going forward then you have to assess based on his 2013 R/L slash line: Vs lefties - .269/.321/.423 Vs Righties - .300/.367/.537 Of particular note though is that he only had 28 plate appearances against lefties all year which would lead me to believe that Farrel doesn't think he can hit lefties as well as righties. Seeing as the samples with Carp are all very low it's hard to know for sure. I think Elguapo's recommendation that we assume typical lefty/righty splits for now is fair. No matter what you think of Carp, I don't think that having Choo, Carp and Nava all on the same team makes a whole lot of sense at this point. (If Carp turns out to be a lefty masher with Farrel's blessing - then this would be a non-issue of course).
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Nov 26, 2013 22:48:48 GMT -5
I think Butler would be an excellent fit. Maybe we trade a Dempster and unload some of his salary in trade for some of Butler's salary. KC gets a relatively good starter. We get a better player in Butler who probably starts at 1st for us and absolutely mashes LH pitching. Great Papi protection and solves 1st base on a cost controlled basis for 2 years. There is no reason why Butler can't play 1st base. He wasn't that bad there when he was a full time guy. He probably is blocked from 1st base by Hosmer and just hasn't played much 1st for several years. His UZR/150 was around a -5 when he played first full time. I think KC just wants to go cheaper at DH and why wouldn't they? If they think Butler is capable of playing 1st he is probably worth more to another team. They probably would prefer better pitching. Nava could start as their DH. He would be well liked in that environment. Devout christian in Kansas. We could then sign Beltran or Choo for left field. I don't get this trade idea at all. Why trade Nava, who was better than Butler last season (.366 wOBA, 128wRC+ vs. .345, 116), is cheaper and is controlled for longer? Neither are particularly good at 1B, so there's no upgrade there. This seems like a trade for the sake of making a trade. Also, wtf does Nava's religion have to do with anything?! Second "also", KC is in Missouri (barely). Nava hits better Left handed. Butler hits better Right handed. He's a better fit with Carp at 1st. Overall, Butler has put up solid offensive numbers for years now. Real steady with more pop than Nava. And he should hit extremely well in Fenway and even be a solid Papi protector in the lineup. And it is a way of moving Dempster's salary. No one is probably going to want to pay all of it even in a complete salary dump. Nava was benched last year in the playoffs even against RH pitching. If they aren't going to play him even against RH pitching then trade him for some value. And I like the concept of moving Dempster's salary, solving the first base problem with an even better hitter than Napoli at a lower cost and being able to add a premium bat in LF with a guy like Beltran or Choo. Kansas City is on the body with KANSAS. Get it? Why nit pick?
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Post by mainesox on Nov 26, 2013 22:56:23 GMT -5
Carp has hit lefties better than righties in his career. That is a good point BUT if the Red Sox are holding onto Carp because last year is indicative of what they can expect going forward then you have to assess based on his 2013 R/L slash line: Vs lefties - .269/.321/.423 Vs Righties - .300/.367/.537 Of particular note though is that he only had 28 plate appearances against lefties all year which would lead me to believe that Farrel doesn't think he can hit lefties as well as righties. Seeing as the samples with Carp are all very low it's hard to know for sure. I think Elguapo's recommendation that we assume typical lefty/righty splits for now is fair. No matter what you think of Carp, I don't think that having Choo, Carp and Nava all on the same team makes a whole lot of sense at this point. (If Carp turns out to be a lefty masher with Farrel's blessing - then this would be a non-issue of course). I think this is more likely because we had Gomes to face lefties for Nava, and our starting first baseman was a righty who mashes lefties. I also don't think one year's worth of splits are indicative of much of anything (especially when, as you note, he has a measly 28 plate appearances against lefties), and even if they were, he was an above average hitter against lefties this year (103 wRC+).
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 27, 2013 0:01:29 GMT -5
Lefty hitters do not hit lefty pitchers better, period. Any statistical record of doing so is almost certainly a small sample size fluke.
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Post by mainesox on Nov 27, 2013 11:34:48 GMT -5
Lefty hitters do not hit lefty pitchers better, period. Any statistical record of doing so is almost certainly a small sample size fluke. Yeah, not trying to say that he'll continue to hit lefties better than righties (in fact, I've said the exact opposite more than once already), just that saying he can't hit lefties is objectively false.
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Post by godot on Nov 27, 2013 12:27:47 GMT -5
Michael Young apparently is reaching out to the Sox and O's. Can't believe he will cost much. He can still hit a little, but how far has he gone back with the glove? If the Sox are interested as Gammons report, he would be back up at first and third.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 27, 2013 13:05:21 GMT -5
Michael Young apparently is reaching out to the Sox and O's. Can't believe he will cost much. He can still hit a little, but how far has he gone back with the glove? If the Sox are interested as Gammons report, he would be back up at first and third. If Young is reaching out let him go to Baltimore. Cinderblock of a defender who has regressed to Brock Holt status with the bat. Anything more than MLB minimum I say no thanks.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 27, 2013 15:09:52 GMT -5
Michael Young apparently is reaching out to the Sox and O's. Can't believe he will cost much. He can still hit a little, but how far has he gone back with the glove? If the Sox are interested as Gammons report, he would be back up at first and third. If Young is reaching out let him go to Baltimore. Cinderblock of a defender who has regressed to Brock Holt status with the bat. Anything more than MLB minimum I say no thanks. Except that Holt can actually play three positions. Right now, Young is down to about 1 1/2.
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Post by jro545454 on Nov 27, 2013 15:10:39 GMT -5
This should only be a last ditch option but the resigning of Brandon Snyder may help the big league club with some of these platoon situations. He hits LHP very well in both the minors and in a SSS in the majors. He has some positional versatility aswell. The one issue is he can absolutely not hit RHPs to save his life.
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 27, 2013 17:09:51 GMT -5
Michael Young apparently is reaching out to the Sox and O's. Can't believe he will cost much. He can still hit a little, but how far has he gone back with the glove? If the Sox are interested as Gammons report, he would be back up at first and third. If Young is reaching out let him go to Baltimore. Cinderblock of a defender who has regressed to Brock Holt status with the bat. Anything more than MLB minimum I say no thanks. Well, not quite. He still has some pop and can hit for average. Clearly he is not the player he once was but Holt (who I like) is definitely a singles guy.
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Post by ikonos on Nov 27, 2013 22:17:18 GMT -5
What are the possible landing spots for Stephen Drew? For some reason I was sure it would be either Cardinals or the Yankees but now that they both are out of the picture, I am not sure where else he can land. Does this increase his chances of a return with XB to 3B and WMB to 1B?
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Post by taftreign on Nov 27, 2013 22:29:26 GMT -5
Well I projected the LA Dodgers in the free agent contest and moving Hanley over to 3B full time. The team has the money to make it happen and the defense just makes the pitching depth all the better. You could also consider the Mets who have the money but seem reluctant, mostly due to the pick attached.
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Post by jdb on Nov 28, 2013 10:08:10 GMT -5
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Post by redsox1534 on Nov 28, 2013 10:42:14 GMT -5
Billy Butler is gonna cost way more then Ryan Demspter and his whole salary. I think Dempster and 6-8 mill, Ranuado, De La Rosa would be the cheapest he would come an I dont think that deal gets it done. I dont think we match up with them well with out overpaying for him. Doubrount and lesser prospect could get a deal done I think but I wouldnt want to lose him. I think the Royals want young MLB SP pitchers who are afforadable and proven or with experience and upside. To go the prospect route we would have to give up more value then we would like. If we could get him for Dempster and Ranuado and a lesser prospect id sign off on that deal no prob.
Id hit up Seattle an ask about Smoke, tho I think they see he is finally ready to break out and are reluctant to deal him now an would want good value in return not sure we match up to greatly with them in a Smoak deal unless were movie JBJ. Id also take a searious stab at Montero who needs a change of scenery badly. I wouldnt go over the moon for the kid hes got way to many questions and is really struggling but if I could get him for Micky Pena and Alex Hassan id take that risk. I just dont think the Mariners are willing yet to sell that low on him. Could be they are willing to and its just no one wants to to go near him.
Id call the Cubs who have so much offensive talent and need SP so bad. There infield is set with every postion except mybe catcher. Baez, Olt, Bryant at 3B, Castro at SS, Alcantra at 2B, Rizzo at 1B with Vogelbach also a 1B. There OF has Almora and Soler with Szczur being a very good prospect him self. Candelario is younger and rawer and further away then all them but another big upside guy who plays 3B and they have Lake who played great this year. Thats a ton of offense and I have to beleive they would trade any of those players for some SP, Baez is the least likely to be dealt most likely untouchable player of that group with Bryant right behind him, Almora isnt some one who would be easy to steal eathier but more likely to be dealt then the other two and same for Solar. I would consider something like this to offer Ranuado, one of Barnes/Webster and Brian Johnson/De La Rosa for Bryant. Or Ranuado, De La Rosa, Brian Johnson for Rizzo ( dont think they would do that one but mybe). Or Vogelbach for Ranuado/Johnson.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 28, 2013 11:09:01 GMT -5
First Bryant is ineligible to be traded. No drafted prospects can be traded for a year. Second i have no doubt the Cubs would not trade Bryant who has legit 70 power and a solid bat. Soler to me will be moved in part to issues regarding his make up.
I like a fit more with the Pirates who have OF prospects Polanco, Meadows (my preferred draft pick last year), Bell and Ramirez to go with McCutchen and Marte. Now it's more likely they move Marte as he gets more expensive but I'd like to see Bell or Ramirez in the Boston system. Polanco has become untouchable.
This mostly to say Boston is rather devoid of power in the system with Bogaerts now in the majors. This is what has the team dipping into FA for corner OFs over and over again.
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Post by jdb on Nov 28, 2013 12:30:40 GMT -5
I'll be surprised if Theo ever hooks up with us on the trade front.
I can't wait until the winter meetings bc we can't really talk about the trade front with little rumors out there. Outside of LADs OF there aren't to many teams rumored for a salary dump. We keep hearing a SP will go somewhere but who knows where or for what.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 28, 2013 12:36:56 GMT -5
I'll be surprised if Theo ever hooks up with us on the trade front. I can't wait until the winter meetings bc we can't really talk about the trade front with little rumors out there. Outside of LADs OF there aren't to many teams rumored for a salary dump. We keep hearing a SP will go somewhere but who knows where or for what. Sox and Cubs made two trades last year (Marlon Byrd for Bowden and PTBNL/Cervenka; Justin Germano for cash). Both teams are smart enough to know that if there's a deal they want to make they won't let personal issues get in the way, if there even are any.
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 28, 2013 14:24:22 GMT -5
What are the possible landing spots for Stephen Drew? For some reason I was sure it would be either Cardinals or the Yankees but now that they both are out of the picture, I am not sure where else he can land. Does this increase his chances of a return with XB to 3B and WMB to 1B? Buster Olney on WEEI today said that Drew may have made a mistake in not accepting 14+m QO from the Sox. With the Cardinals and Mets seemingly out, the latter because of draft pick issues, SS opportunities may be dwindling for him.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 28, 2013 17:10:47 GMT -5
I'll be surprised if Theo ever hooks up with us on the trade front. I can't wait until the winter meetings bc we can't really talk about the trade front with little rumors out there. Outside of LADs OF there aren't to many teams rumored for a salary dump. We keep hearing a SP will go somewhere but who knows where or for what. Sox and Cubs made two trades last year (Marlon Byrd for Bowden and PTBNL/Cervenka; Justin Germano for cash). Both teams are smart enough to know that if there's a deal they want to make they won't let personal issues get in the way, if there even are any. Plus, Theo isn't the GM.
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Post by jdb on Nov 29, 2013 13:03:39 GMT -5
I'll be surprised if Theo ever hooks up with us on the trade front. I can't wait until the winter meetings bc we can't really talk about the trade front with little rumors out there. Outside of LADs OF there aren't to many teams rumored for a salary dump. We keep hearing a SP will go somewhere but who knows where or for what. Sox and Cubs made two trades last year (Marlon Byrd for Bowden and PTBNL/Cervenka; Justin Germano for cash). Both teams are smart enough to know that if there's a deal they want to make they won't let personal issues get in the way, if there even are any. Maybe but I don't see them hooking up for anything more than a DFA trade. Heck it's almost an unwritten rule not to trade with NY and depending on who you believe we were blocking Lovullo from interviewing with the Cubs.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 29, 2013 16:32:45 GMT -5
There's no unwritten rule against trading with the Yankees. They've worked several deals over the years. www.baseball-reference.com/friv/trade-partners.cgi?franch_ID_1=BOS&franch_ID_2=NYYThe issue is you don't help a competitor and they are not only in the same division,they've both been good for almost 20 years now. Both being good means they are typically both looking for similar help so they don't match up well.
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 30, 2013 13:12:51 GMT -5
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 30, 2013 13:13:17 GMT -5
Chris Cotillo ?@chriscotillo 17u Source: #Rays and #RedSox showing preliminary interest in reliever Luis Ayala. #Orioles, #Dodgers, #SFGiants, #Phillies, #Braves in too.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Nov 30, 2013 15:57:09 GMT -5
The statement that the Sox are "nearing a point where they hope to decide between alternatives" surely must apply to outfield options. If Ellsbury doesn't re-sign they have to go after Choo or Beltran. They already have said that if Ellsbury leaves they will try to strengthen another position, and there aren't any really good FAs for any other position, other than the Red Sox FAs, and some pitchers.
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