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2013 Offseason Red Sox thread
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 1, 2013 17:29:19 GMT -5
Gutierrez's fielding numbers have just fallen off a cliff in 2012 and 2013. Maybe some of that is due to injury, but it's telling that the Mariners played him more in RF than CF last year despite the alternatives being Michael Saunders, Dustin Ackley, and Endy Chavez (all of whom are bad-to-terrible defensive center fielders by all metrics). He's certainly one of the riskier outfield options, especially since he hasn't really hit since 2009 (last year's likely SSS boost in power notwithstanding). Just noticed this post, sorry JMEI, Many of his defensive issues were probably tied to the reason(s) he was hurt.. His legs and hamstring/hip problems he was battling the last 2 seasons. Yes, he could be someone as prone to injuries as was Ells, but signing him to a low contract, even 1y may get him on the field more often and at a low AAV would be less risk again.
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Post by jdb on Nov 1, 2013 17:33:57 GMT -5
www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-red-sox-top-5-free-agent-targets/" Carlos Beltran...Boston scout Edgar Diaz is one of Beltran’s closest friends, as is Alex Cora, whose ties to the Red Sox remain tight. Mike Pelfrey, RH Rel. ...Pelfrey had his power sinker up to 93-95 off Tommy John Surgery Brian Wilson. ... He was 96-97 coming back from surgery. Willie Bloomquist. ... who will be 36 this month, can play second, short, third, left and right, he had a .317/.360/.367/.727 line and is a tough, hard-nosed character who’d fit this team’s makeup. Brian McCann... could be a Boston possibility as a catcher, first baseman and eventual DH. “Never underestimate how close Brian is to David Ross,” says one Braves front office member" I did not realize that Bloomquist was that flexible as far as positions go. Also someone like Eric Chavez could be a good LH corner IF backup.
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Post by amfox1 on Nov 1, 2013 17:59:36 GMT -5
www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-red-sox-top-5-free-agent-targets/" Carlos Beltran...Boston scout Edgar Diaz is one of Beltran’s closest friends, as is Alex Cora, whose ties to the Red Sox remain tight. Mike Pelfrey, RH Rel. ...Pelfrey had his power sinker up to 93-95 off Tommy John Surgery Brian Wilson. ... He was 96-97 coming back from surgery. Willie Bloomquist. ... who will be 36 this month, can play second, short, third, left and right, he had a .317/.360/.367/.727 line and is a tough, hard-nosed character who’d fit this team’s makeup. Brian McCann... could be a Boston possibility as a catcher, first baseman and eventual DH. “Never underestimate how close Brian is to David Ross,” says one Braves front office member" I don't see the fit with Beltran. We have Nava, JBJ, Shane-O and Gomes already (not counting Carp). Big Pelf is fine and we do need relievers. Don't see Wilson coming. I think Texas is going all out for McCann and will top any and all bids. Bloomie is a good fit but we need to see the Drew fallout first.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Nov 1, 2013 18:01:50 GMT -5
I heard Napoli's agent said his client would not accept another one year deal. Do we let Nap go and take the pick? Or sign him to 3/39? Not like there are many others options. Still pretty bummed that we didn't land Abreu, but at the price it was likely the right move. We could fix it from within with Carp/Nava and acquire a right handed bat. Edit: Or we could sign McCann and rotate him between catcher and first base. I like the Carp platoon idea. Apparently the team is going to take a look at Napoli's hips before making a decision. I hope its the right one. I'm glad Napoli got his revenge on the Cards regardless and got a ring. He's a good guy.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Nov 1, 2013 18:39:49 GMT -5
One of the things that was obvious from the post-season was how much the Sox need another premium power-hitter. Ortiz is not going to last forever, and someone really good to bat behind him would enhance his performance. That player would have to be either a 1B or an OF. (1) I thought this team's success would dampen the "you need superstar hitters to win!" narrative. I guess not. (2) His name is Xander Bogaerts. I think Salty will have some good offers, but the Sox should be able to match them, and they should. McCann is not going to be less expensive, and, at this point, the two are fairly comparable. Law has said Salty is better. I'm sorry, but this is just wrong. Both in 2013 and over their carrers, Brian McCann walks more, strikes out less, hits for more power, and is as good of a defender as Saltalamacchia. The one major thing that Saltalamacchia has done better, both in 2013 and over their careers, is sustain a higher BABIP. That's a real skill difference (Saltalamacchia is also the better baserunner), but it's not enough to balance out all the other stuff I mentioned above. McCann will obviously be much more expensive, but he is meaningfully better than Saltalamacchia. The Sox had one superstar hitter this year, Ortiz, and his effect on the team's success was more than very significant, especially in the WS. Most of the Sox hitters could not handle the better pitching they saw in the post season, but Ortiz could. Because the team was constructed of decent players at all positions, individual players had their moments, just enough, when combined with Ortiz's overall superior performance, to give the Sox the edge. Ortiz is unlikely to have another season like this one. It is just common sense that age will creep in, or something else will happen, like an injury. Also, his WS performance was one for the ages, not likely to be repeated by anyone, anytime soon. I previously conceded that you were right about the team's construction last winter, but I don't believe you are right, now. Bogaerts is not a proven superstar. I think he will become one, but it is not an assumption that should be made to forestall other options. The Sox are woefully shy of high OPS power hitters in the minors. I think that it is prudent for the team to get one from outside, and that probably can only be accomplished by trade. As to the Salty-McCann issue, I don't think it is likely the Sox will have a choice. McCann, because of his reputation - which I believe greatly exceeds his current capabilities - will get more from another team than the Sox will be willing to pay. Salty also will get some very good offers. There is no viable option but to try hard to keep Salty. Also, just to argue a little more, Salty had his best season. He still is improving. Yes, his throwing leaves something to be desired, but it really has not been that much of a problem - that throw in the WS being an exception. By all accounts, McCann probably can't stick at catcher much longer. There is a real dearth of decent-hitting catchers of even average skills right now. It would be a real step backward for the Sox not to have one.
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Post by jmei on Nov 1, 2013 19:42:46 GMT -5
The idea that you need proven superstar hitters to succeed in the playoffs is pretty silly and empirically false. I mean, just look at the list of World Series MVPs-- the number of role player types like David Freese or Edgar Renteria or Mike Lowell or David Eckstein far outnumber true elite hitters. We've seen teams with multiple elite hitters, frontline power pitchers, great defense, elite bullpen, etc. etc. all fall in the postseason, because any seven games series is mostly a crapshoot and there's not one skill that plays up more in the playoffs. You do not need power hitters, or an ace, or anything else, and thinking that the only way to succeed is to acquire one of those archetypes only means you're going to overpay for one and make the organization weaker. A front office should simply be trying to build a team that projects to win the most regular season games and the division. And it turns out that one of the best ways to do so is with depth rather than loading up on premium stars and having to play a bunch of replacement-level guys. As for McCann/Saltalamacchia/other, I'm agnostic-- it will all depend on the cost. But McCann is undoubtedly a better player than Saltalamacchia, and it's only because Saltalamacchia will come cheaper that he might be the best option.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 1, 2013 19:58:31 GMT -5
Is there any scenario that can play out where Bogaerts isn't a full time start out of the gate next year in Boston?
If not then with the news the Sox are probably hiving Drew a QO then what's the deal with WMB? AAA to figure out his approach?
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Nov 1, 2013 20:02:33 GMT -5
I heard Napoli's agent said his client would not accept another one year deal. Do we let Nap go and take the pick? Or sign him to 3/39? Has this been mentioned?: given the contracts we signed with J.D. Drew and John Lackey, wouldn't they be likely to offer Nap a deal that says, e.g. 3/39 BUT if the hip goes because of his condition, they pay the rest of that year and then are off the hook? He takes all the risk of his unique condition, but Sox take usual risk of other injuries.
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Post by jmei on Nov 1, 2013 20:04:07 GMT -5
If Drew accepts the QO, the Red Sox can keep all three of Bogaerts, Drew, and Middlebrooks on the roster, playing Bogaerts/Drew versus righties and Middlebrooks/Bogaerts versus lefties. Middlebrooks would be the backup 2B.
But Drew is pretty certain to reject the QO and look for a long-term deal. This could be his last chance to get a long-term deal, and he's the best shortstop on the market with a number of teams looking to upgrade the position (Cardinals, Mets, etc).
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 1, 2013 20:21:54 GMT -5
Any situation where Bogaerts is forced to platoon with WMB is a lose/lose scenario. Bogaerts bat is better in every way and can't even see much of a defensive improvement at 3b with WMB. It's just like wasting, or giving away AB. Now if WMB could play more positions other than just 3b/2b.. Maybe, but his use as a utility player is even extremely limited.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 1, 2013 20:22:13 GMT -5
I don't think they "need" to go all out and get a "big" bat but if the opportunity arises and the price is right I think try are well positioned to strike.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Nov 1, 2013 20:27:07 GMT -5
If Drew accepts the QO, the Red Sox can keep all three of Bogaerts, Drew, and Middlebrooks on the roster, playing Bogaerts/Drew versus righties and Middlebrooks/Bogaerts versus lefties. Middlebrooks would be the backup 2B. But Drew is pretty certain to reject the QO and look for a long-term deal. This could be his last chance to get a long-term deal, and he's the best shortstop on the market with a number of teams looking to upgrade the position (Cardinals, Mets, etc). Would we keep McDonald if Drew leaves or look elsewhere for backup infielders? McDonald is an excellent fielder and I would think he would be a good guy to complement Xander's bat. In that situation, seems like they're banking on Will turning jt around. If he doesn't, a mid season trade for a veteran 3B seems likely until Cecchini comes up. Overall, I'm pretty happy about our team next year. I'm most excited about our rotation and hopefully Xander at SS. I think it will be cool to see Bradley in CF as well. The draft will be interesting if we net 2-3 picks from the QOs.
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 1, 2013 20:34:38 GMT -5
If Drew accepts the QO, the Red Sox can keep all three of Bogaerts, Drew, and Middlebrooks on the roster, playing Bogaerts/Drew versus righties and Middlebrooks/Bogaerts versus lefties. Middlebrooks would be the backup 2B. But Drew is pretty certain to reject the QO and look for a long-term deal. This could be his last chance to get a long-term deal, and he's the best shortstop on the market with a number of teams looking to upgrade the position (Cardinals, Mets, etc). Yes, I think that this is the obvious play with Drew. He will very likely depart but I hope that it is not to the Yanks. Ells is gone, gone, gone for all the recited reasons previously mentioned. Nap wants to be here so that is in our favor for a 2 year re-sign. Salty I expect will also be gone based on no QO to date. What we do then at catcher is likely to be a mystery in the near term.
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Post by jmei on Nov 1, 2013 20:37:26 GMT -5
Any situation where Bogaerts is forced to platoon with WMB is a lose/lose scenario. Bogaerts bat is better in every way and can't even see much of a defensive improvement at 3b with WMB. It's just like wasting, or giving away AB. Now if WMB could play more positions other than just 3b/2b.. Maybe, but his use as a utility player is even extremely limited. Read my post more carefully. In this scenario, Bogaerts plays everyday-- at 3B versus righties and at SS versus lefties. Middlebrooks would effectively platoon with Drew.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Nov 1, 2013 20:40:01 GMT -5
What do you guys think about a Lester extension?
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Post by jmei on Nov 1, 2013 20:47:06 GMT -5
Would we keep McDonald if Drew leaves or look elsewhere for backup infielders? McDonald is an excellent fielder and I would think he would be a good guy to complement Xander's bat. McDonald is a 39-year-old utility infielder who has hit .221/.269/.320 and been exactly replacement level over the past three years. Even if Drew leaves, I would think the Red Sox can sign a better utility infielder, or at least one with more upside. Names to watch include Jamie Carroll, Brendan Ryan, Clint Barmes, and old friend Nick Punto.
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Post by amfox1 on Nov 1, 2013 21:24:17 GMT -5
What do you guys think about a Lester extension? He'll get one, but not until later in the offseason. I'll guess it's a below market deal.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Nov 1, 2013 21:28:45 GMT -5
What do you guys think about a Lester extension? I thought he had an all natural, full head of hair. Seriously, if they can work out an extension, do it. For now, they exercised their option. Is it conceivable that Lester may be no more tied to Boston than, say, Ellsbury is, and wants to test the market?
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Nov 1, 2013 22:12:34 GMT -5
If Drew accepts the QO we can also trade Middlebrooks. It's an option. It wouldn't hurt that much to keep him though as he doesn't cost much and he is decent depth.
Ideally Drew walks and we play Middlebrooks at 3rd and see if he can restore his value and then either make him the 3rd baseman or trade him. Cechinni could well be a better option for us but replacing Middlebrook's potential power is tough to do. I actually thought he might hit 6th for us in the beginning of the year. Who knows, maybe he can turn things around. The guy does have a ton of pop in his bat. Easy power.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 1, 2013 22:54:34 GMT -5
Cecchini is going to have to spend at least half a season at Pawtucket, if not the entire season regardless.
As for the non power? Have brought that up before. Boston having non power at 3b is nothing new, from Pete Runnels, to Carney Lansford, to Wade Boggs and finally Billy Mueller. Those guys were all extremely high OBP guys, as hopefully Cecchini will be. OF and 1b, DH is fairly easy positions to find power at. Having someone who hits well, gets on base at (guessing of course) at a .350-260 clip in my thinking is better than a guy who hits 15-20HR, yet struggles with a .290-300OBP.
Think you hit that right on with Cecchini Lava guy. It's how much patience the team will have with WMB, or if they will have any and just choose to move him over the winter and not even bother.
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Post by nationinthesouth on Nov 1, 2013 23:19:11 GMT -5
With Nathan declining his option with the Rangers it would be interesting to see what the Sox interest in him would be. 2 years 20-25 mil may be in the ballpark. My fear is Koji will come back to this planet next year at some point and we currently have no other late inning options. At the very least provides depth, especially considering Koji was option 4 as a closer this past season.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Nov 1, 2013 23:36:18 GMT -5
To me the last thing we need is a $10 mil closer. I wish Bailey didn't get hurt because he would have helped. Koji can regress a lot and still be a good closer. The guy was the best closer in the game last year at year end. He should stay right where he is. Until his arm falls off!
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Post by pasadenasox on Nov 1, 2013 23:42:48 GMT -5
If Bailey bounces back use him as the titular closer to pitch I the classic three run 9th inning lead situations and use Koji as the relief ace in high leverage late inning situations. Don't throw big dollars at Nathan.
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Post by nationinthesouth on Nov 1, 2013 23:47:56 GMT -5
To me the last thing we need is a $10 mil closer. I wish Bailey didn't get hurt because he would have helped. Koji can regress a lot and still be a good closer. The guy was the best closer in the game last year at year end. He should stay right where he is. Until his arm falls off! Again, then what? when and if his arm falls off? we went into '13 thinking we had a surplus of closers and ended the season catching lightning in a bottle with option 4. If we go into the season thinking we will be good with just Koji and hope he repeats his career year at 39 then that is being short sighted. Thankfully this management team doesn't think this way. Nathan may not be the option, but they need to have some. Edit-With Nathan declining his option does this mean no compensation picks? This would be another factor, the availability of a proven closer late in his career that will require no prospects or picks to acquire. With his age 2 years i believe is all he is seeking. This falls in line with what they seem to be looking for going forward, short term commitments even if the money per is a little higher.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Nov 1, 2013 23:58:10 GMT -5
We should focus on where we can improve the team or save costs. What opportunities are out there which improve upon 2013, which are within reason. Plus retaining the value we want to retain while assimilating farm talent and FA opportunities which warrant joining the big club. My thoughts systematically:
Player Retention:
Pick up Lester's option = yes Trades? Look for a power RH bat, preferably at 1st or LF. Trade Nava if you aren't going to play him for God's sake. Trade Morales. Too many LH subs. Not enough quality RH subs in OF. Drew = QO but let walk if declines Napoli = QO but try to sign to 2 year deal unless a trade can be made for someone better Ellsbury = QO but let walk if over $100 mil Salty = Let walk. Dempster = my long relief guy / starter depth
FA:
Choo = I'd pay 5 years / $100 mil. Tanaka = ( definitely make a run here, undecided amount so far )
Farm Talent:
Incorporate Xander for sure Add Workman to the pen as setup guy to Koji probably JBJ = probably CF Lavarnway = Probably my starting catcher ( surprise, surprise! ). Webster, Ranaudo, others = Starter depth RDLR, Britton, others = reliever depth
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