Rotation or bullpen?

My thoughts: I think Workman is the really interesting case here, for reasons that Eric will almost certainly soon expand on. Britton and De La Rosa are likely to stay relievers from day 1 due to their stuff playing better out of the bullpen and struggles with pitch efficiency in a starting role. Webster and Wright will probably start in the Pawtucket rotation and will only be used in bullpen if desperation or extreme stagnation occurs. Ditto Ranaudo and Barnes.

I think that if they are in the minors they should start. If they make the majors I would put anyone of them in the pen and see where it goes from there. Although I think that Workman right now is the 5 best starter I do not expect the Sox to start him ahead of Peavy. April of next year in the Boston bullpen I expect them to have Workman and De La Rosa.

Love this topic and don't have much to add, mainly because I'm in agreement with the majority opinion. I'm in very strong agreement that Britton is best suited for the pen and he should begin the season in that role next year. I'm in pretty strong agreement that De La Rosa works best there as well. Depending on roster spots, I'm tempted to let De La Rosa start in Pawtucket though. I think he has closer like upside from the pen in the long term.

I prefer Workman as a starter to be honest. He has excelled (maybe too strong of a word) there at every level, even showing improvements as he has risen up the charts. He looked good in that role in his small sample size this year at the major league level, and I like his stuff/makeup as our 4th/5th starter. That being said, there is an obvious logjam in the rotation for next year and I think its likely he's impressed the front office enough to earn a spot in the bullpen out of the spring. I'd be okay with that for next year, but I'd like to see him get a chance in the rotation when an opportunity arises.

I agree that if Webster harnesses his control, he's frontline starter material. No need to make a move there anytime soon. The same goes for Owens if he can be considered in this conversation

I'm pretty split on Barnes/Ranaudo. My guess is that long term, one sticks as a starter and the other transitions to the bullpen. Keep them as starters next year though unless we're desperate for relief at the major league level.

Workman is interesting and I see no reason why he couldn't hone his craft in the pen for a year or two, then become a starter in 2015 or so when some of the Veteran starters turn over.

I think Barnes is going to be a RH Jon Lester and I know I'm saying this after Lester just looked like a stud.

Ranaudo, I think will be a starter, but I worry about durability and health.

Owens looks to be definite starting material.

As much as I wanted Rubby to be a starter, it just doesn't seem to be coming together like a lot of us thought. I'd give him every opportunity to start figuring a year further from Tommy John could change a whole lot, but I think he may end up as a potential closer utilizing that fastball / change combo.

Webster will be a starter and I think he could pitch in the majors from day 1. I think he'll be a solid number 5 as he gains experience eventually becoming a "good Derek Lowe" type starter.

Another guy who could figure into this list as a very big piece of the future is Felix Doubront. The guy is only 26 . I think a lot of us forget that because he's been around the org so long and has been so established. He showed a lot in the post-season being very dependable and eating some tough innings. His starting numbers in the regular season were very solid especially considering his age. If he can keep himself motivated to show up every year in tip top condition I think he'll age very well. He could become a "crafty lefty" and eventually put up some big wins and innings numbers to go along with the periferals.

Wright is a very fringy guy. I wouldn't be surprised to see him become a solid backend of the rotation type, I also wouldn't be surprised to see him in another org. as some Journeyman knuckle spot starter.

To my mind, there are three dilemmas:

Does Workman start for Pawtucket, or is he the parent club combination long man / set-up man (second RH after Tazawa)?

Does Britton start for Pawtucket, close for Pawtucket, be the MLB LOOGY, or does he get stretched out to also fill a long man / set-up combo plate? Either of the last two means trading Morales.

Does De La Rosa start for Pawtucket, or close? (He and Britton could share that role.)

Webster, Wright, Ranaudo, and Barnes are definitely in the PawSox rotation, leaving one spot open.

So here's what I would do:

I shop for a top RH set-up guy with the knowledge that I can be picky as hell. You don't feel forced to sign the best guy available, even if he doesn't seem a bargain and has some risk. You DO try to sign next year's Uehara, the guy that everyone else is massively underrating. (Obviously, this guy doesn't have to have anywhere near the excess value Koji had, just be a top-tier set-up guy who can be had for relatively cheap.)

So whether they can add that kind of bullpen arm actually determines Workman's role.

If you find Koji 2.0 Lite, then Workman goes back to Pawtucket. You need to clear a 40-man roster spot, so Morales is traded, and Britton competes with Villareal for the last spot in the pen.

If you don't find him, then Workman is in the MLB pen (but stretched out in ST), and you keep Morales around through ST, also stretched out as a starter, in case there's a rash of injuries, with a decent chance of dealing him to make room for Britton or Villareal.

In these scenarios, the candidates for the last rotation spot at Pawtucket might be:

Workman, De La Rosa, and Britton
Workman and De La Rosa
De La Rosa and Britton
De La Rosa

I don't want to give up on De La Rosa as a starter, and I think that Britton's eventual relief work could very much benefit from another half-year or year of starting, with the extra innings and extra looks at RHB.

So I would seriously consider having 6 guys share the 5 Pawtucket starting spots. For some of the year, an injury will probably solve the surplus. When all are healthy, one or another (perhaps everyone but Ranaudo) can work out of the pen for a stretch, thus minimizing innings. You'd have to have a plan, because you want to minimize the number of role switches.

This is an appealing avenue forward but comes with risks. Namely, after a season or two of working out of the bullpen, it becomes difficult to immediately ramp that guy up to starter's innings. Chris Sale went from 71 innings in 2011 to 192 innings in 2012 and C.J. Wilson went from 73.2 innings in 2009 to 204 innings in 2010, so there's some precedent, but asking a guy to pitch 100+ more innings in year 2 sounds risky as hell to me.

I agree mostly with Eric's analysis, especially with the need to get guys like De La Rosa and Britton bulk innings. Remember, Britton has only pitched 5.1 innings in AAA and 21 innings in MLB in 2013, while RDLR only got 80.1 IP in AAA and 11.1 IP in MLB. While the temptation is there to just put those guys in the back of the Boston bullpen, leaving them in AAA might be better for their long-term development. They're almost certainly going to get significantly more innings in Pawtucket than if they're languishing as the mopup reliever in Boston, even if they're only in the Pawtucket bullpen. Workman probably also fall in the same category-- he started 2013 in Portland, and only got 77 combined AAA/MLB innings this year (and another 8.2 in the playoffs)-- but he looks good enough now that I think he ends up in the MLB bullpen unless a few good relievers fall into their laps this offseason.

Don't forget Dalier Hinojosa who could be a 'pen arm, but may get a chance to start.



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Workman is so much different a case than Bard you can't compare the two. Workman has a much better pitch slection for a starer and had success as a starter in the MiLB. They are not comparable at all.

Thats a good point Eric, I hope for the best but hopefully he can learn to throw strikes.

I think Britton profiles good as a left handed reliever, and Wright is a long relieve/spot starter/AAAA player. While Workman and DLR will probably end up in the pen I think they earned the chance to prove themselves as starters. The problem is there really isn't a spot on the MLB roster for them to do that. Workman can help the MLB in a bullpen role to start the year and DLR figures to have that same option. I think you start Rubby as a starter in AAA presuming he will be off his inning limit are reassess the situation 2-3 months in. Workman gets stretched out in ST and is on the opening day roster in the pen.

Webster in my eyes is still the highest ceiling starter in the upper minors we have (Yes there is personal biased in that statement). If he doesn't figure out his control/command problems he is a bust, but his arsenal is just too good to give up on as a starter. Keep in in AAA and give him Pawtucket's first start.

I think it is too early to tell for Barnes and Ranaudo. Reports suggest that their fastball and curveball would play in the majors but not their change. Have them start the year in AAA.

Decisions by the end of the year on both Peavy and Lester Chris. As of now? Workman is the only one of the current crop of top young kids who have proven themselves at the MLB level, the rest (or some) may have more talent, but none is proven.

He seems like the one they would have to hang onto through the winter and early part of the season, at least until 1 of the others throws enough at the MLB level successfully.

Also? See him as another Masterson type swingman as far as value currently to the team, more than Morales as Workman has 3 pitches that can get over consistently.

Yes.. Nobody is on any no trade list, just like Masterson and Ramirez were moved, but I would think he would take a very decent haul to move.