SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Potential RHB to Platoon with Bradley?
|
Post by rjp313jr on Nov 14, 2013 10:35:35 GMT -5
I think it's a better idea to let Bradley take his lumps against lefties, take the defensive bonus, and hope there's a long term benefit. He certainly isn't going to learn how to hit them sitting on the bench. Platooning a young, talented player is really self-defeating in the long run. This... Do people really think platooning JBjr is even remotely a good idea? I can't think of anything worse to do to a young developing prospect. Perhaps, the word "platoon" is just misunderstood/used. I agree with Chris on Napoli, but I don't think it takes more then 2 with a vesting option. His market is being over estimated; it's surprising to me people feel he's such a different player then he was last offseason.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 14, 2013 11:06:35 GMT -5
I think it's a better idea to let Bradley take his lumps against lefties, take the defensive bonus, and hope there's a long term benefit. He certainly isn't going to learn how to hit them sitting on the bench. Platooning a young, talented player is really self-defeating in the long run. This... Do people really think platooning JBjr is even remotely a good idea? I can't think of anything worse to do to a young developing prospect. Perhaps, the word "platoon" is just misunderstood/used. I agree with Chris on Napoli, but I don't think it takes more then 2 with a vesting option. His market is being over estimated; it's surprising to me people feel he's such a different player then he was last offseason. Yes. He went from fringy catcher who likely would need to move to first to a GG-caliber first baseman. At the plate sure, same guy. So why wouldn't he get what he originally got last season?
|
|
|
Post by elguapo on Nov 14, 2013 11:51:25 GMT -5
@jcrasnick: Free agent Chris Young is on the #redsox list of fallback CF options if they don't re-sign Jacoby Ellsbury This could make sense even if they are confident JBJ is ready. The roster construction last year wasn't ideal in terms of 1B-OF. Carp doesn't have a strong split, based on his career numbers, but let's say they picked up Corey Hart, traded Carp, signed Young. You'd have 4 OF, one OF/1B, three guys who could play CF/RF, room for a utility IF. And everybody will likely get 300+ plate appearances. The drawback is that it's expensive. Young + Hart - Carp is a significant increase. I wonder if Young would sign a 1-year deal to try to reestablish his value?
|
|
|
Post by klostrophobic on Nov 14, 2013 12:07:31 GMT -5
Bogaerts gets 80 games at SS (the rest at third) , Peralta gets 82 at SS and all the games in LF against LHP. That's not that backuppy. And just where does lefty killer Gomes play in that scenario? At first, platooning with Carp.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Nov 14, 2013 12:11:40 GMT -5
Having a quality set of backups would be a lot easier if the team went back to having 11 pitchers. A team needs someone who can backup short, a backup catcher, and someone who can play center. So when you have 12 pitchers, that only leaves space for one more bat. There's a competitive advantage to be gained by carrying a deeper, more versatile bench, and basically every team leaves that on the table so that they can gain the minuscule advantage of playing lefty/righty matchups with their bullpens in the seventh inning.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Nov 14, 2013 12:22:03 GMT -5
This... Do people really think platooning JBjr is even remotely a good idea? I can't think of anything worse to do to a young developing prospect. Perhaps, the word "platoon" is just misunderstood/used. I agree with Chris on Napoli, but I don't think it takes more then 2 with a vesting option. His market is being over estimated; it's surprising to me people feel he's such a different player then he was last offseason. Yes. He went from fringy catcher who likely would need to move to first to a GG-caliber first baseman. At the plate sure, same guy. So why wouldn't he get what he originally got last season? He might get the same and it wouldn't surprise me, but this is why I think it may come out to less, but I agree it most certainly won't be more. These are the differences on the negative side from this point last year: 1. he's a year older 2. he has a known degenerative hip condition 3. he has a qualifying offer attached to him distant 4th - extra picky, but it's been talked about a few times on this board as a concern so I will put it out there 4. K rate rose again His positives: 1. proved he could handle first base and at an above average level (he's still not an elite first baseman, but he was very good and I do think he'll probably get better with the things that come from experience) 2. coming off a good offensive year vs a down one 3. stayed healthy all year So the question then becomes do the positives out weigh the negatives, vice versa or do they even out. My opinion is they come close to evening out, but the QO is the biggest anchor with the way teams view draft picks and the slot money they come with these days. That and the fact that both the Sox and Napoli have expressed interest in each other makes me believe there is next to no chance he plays any where else, which I think other teams believe,e as well which may further limit his market. Won't surprise me if it's an identical 3/39, I'm just guessing it doesn't even take that much.
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Nov 14, 2013 12:27:34 GMT -5
I'd be ok with 2/25 with a vesting option based on some agreeable measure. I think this might make everyone happy (Napoli & the Sox, anyway - it won't make some here happy, I'm sure).
|
|
|
Post by elguapo on Nov 14, 2013 12:32:01 GMT -5
but the QO is the biggest anchor with the way teams view draft picks and the slot money they come with these days. That and the fact that both the Sox and Napoli have expressed interest in each other makes me believe there is next to no chance he plays any where else, The Sox would miss out on a compensation pick if they signed Napoli, so that is not a particular advantage vs other teams.
|
|
|
Post by anthonyws2013 on Nov 14, 2013 12:34:14 GMT -5
Reading an article talking about how Mike Napoli is the most underrated free agent value on ESPN.com this morning made me see that at 3 years and 13-15 million (with some injury language protecting the team against his hip problem) is a beneficial deal for both sides. His defense and right handed hitting power is something that is diminishing in the league and something the Red Sox are lacking. A middle of the order power bat with great on base skills is something that is needed for the 2014 Red Sox.
Acquiring and signing a potential platoon player I think is a luxury more than a necessity at this point. Jackie would be put in the 9 hole and has shown to provide Gold Glove caliber defense and above average on base production. He not Jacoby, he's 23 years old and needs to be in the big leagues to learn. Already having Johnny Gomes, Daniel Nava and Mike Carp being able to take care of the corner outfield spots and Shane Victorino with the ability to man centerfield already has a built in platoon for him if he struggles.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Nov 14, 2013 12:37:54 GMT -5
but the QO is the biggest anchor with the way teams view draft picks and the slot money they come with these days. That and the fact that both the Sox and Napoli have expressed interest in each other makes me believe there is next to no chance he plays any where else, The Sox would miss out on a compensation pick if they signed Napoli, so that is not a particular advantage vs other teams. There is a tangible difference between losing your first round pick and not getting a comp pick for a player. I fully understand the logic behind what you are saying, but I disagree if you think they are the same.
|
|
|
Post by elguapo on Nov 14, 2013 12:53:15 GMT -5
There is a tangible difference between losing your first round pick and not getting a comp pick for a player. The only difference is the value of the pick, period. And the value is specific to the signing team - it could be some level of first, comp, second, even third round pick.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Nov 14, 2013 13:35:27 GMT -5
So the question then becomes do the positives out weigh the negatives, vice versa or do they even out. My opinion is they come close to evening out, but the QO is the biggest anchor with the way teams view draft picks and the slot money they come with these days. That and the fact that both the Sox and Napoli have expressed interest in each other makes me believe there is next to no chance he plays any where else, which I think other teams believe,e as well which may further limit his market. Won't surprise me if it's an identical 3/39, I'm just guessing it doesn't even take that much. Fair enough that you think it will take less than what he was offered last year, but just be aware that the vast majority of analysts disagree and think he'll match or exceed that amount. For instance: MLBTR: three years, $42m Fangraphs Crowdsourcing: three years, $39.8m Jon Heyman, an unnamed GM, an unnamed agent: Agent: $39M, 3 yrs. GM: 3 yrs, $40M. Heyman: 3 yrs, $39M. AP Baseball Writers: Blum: $45 million, 3 years, Red Sox; Fitzpatrick: $32 million, 2 years, Red Sox; McCauley: $50 million, 4 years, Red Sox; Rumberg: $36 million, 3 years, Red Sox; Trister: $42 million, 3 years, Red Sox
|
|
|
Post by docman on Nov 14, 2013 13:54:23 GMT -5
With Ellsbury a free agent, Boras his agent, and the amount of money they are looking for, Ellsbury playing in Boston next year is looking less and less likely. Probably the best option to replace him at the lowest cost is CF prospect Jackie Bradley Jr. He had a solid year in AAA last year after starting in Boston and later being optioned. However, Bradley had some difficulty at the plate this year and may struggle against lefties next year. So if the Sox were going to go into next year as Bradley as their starting CF, it wouldn't be bad to consider a right-handed bat to platoon with him. Some potential free agents:Chris Young Rajai Davis Franklin Gutierrez I can't really think of right-handed trade targets who are not free agents off the top of my head. Any ideas or suggestions for a right-handed outfielder? I think it's way too early to think about platooning Bradley. Guys platoon because they've proven that they perform better v. righties or lefties (e.g., Gomes, Nava). Sure, you might wonder if Bradley can hit MLB pitching at this point, but that calls for a "Plan B," not a platoon.
|
|
|
Post by jhenrywaugh, prop. on Nov 14, 2013 13:57:53 GMT -5
. . . at the same time, can't really think of a significantly better option beyond Napoli re-signing. I think I may be in the minority who is ok giving him 3/39-42. If so, I'm in the minority with you. Overpay on short years, it's how the extra cash was used last year, and makes sense here, because they are thin in the area of run production. Unless they is a significant trade, they will have to push MLB-ready talent aside for a year or two, such as Bradley, WMB, or Bogaerts. Overpaying a little for Nap makes it easier to let these guys transition in to the bottom third of the lineup.
|
|
|
Post by docman on Nov 14, 2013 14:15:54 GMT -5
If so, I'm in the minority with you. Overpay on short years, it's how the extra cash was used last year, and makes sense here, because they are thin in the area of run production. Unless they is a significant trade, they will have to push MLB-ready talent aside for a year or two, such as Bradley, WMB, or Bogaerts. Overpaying a little for Nap makes it easier to let these guys transition in to the bottom third of the lineup. I see 3 options regarding 1B 1. Re-sign Nap 2. Sign Beltran to play LF, Nava/Carp at 1B.2. Re-sign Drew, move Bogaerts to 3B and Middlebrooks to 1B Since Nap and the Sox both appear to want to get the deal done, I'd say #1 is the favorite, but I wouldn't lose any sleep over 2 or 3.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Nov 14, 2013 14:25:49 GMT -5
Middlebrooks as anything more than an emergency 1B entering the season makes zero sense to me. Remember, he didn't hit well enough last year to lock down the full-time 3B spot, and the offensive baseline at 1B is much, much higher.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Nov 14, 2013 14:27:39 GMT -5
There is a tangible difference between losing your first round pick and not getting a comp pick for a player. The only difference is the value of the pick, period. And the value is specific to the signing team - it could be some level of first, comp, second, even third round pick. That's not the only difference. If another team signs Napoli they don't have a first round pick. If the Sox do, they still have one. whether you choose to consider that a difference or not, is another story, but I can promise you it affect the way a team thinks.
|
|
|
Post by elguapo on Nov 14, 2013 14:41:29 GMT -5
If another team signs Napoli they don't have a first round pick. If the Sox do, they still have one. whether you choose to consider that a difference or not, is another story, but I can promise you it affect the way a team thinks. Even if I accepted you as an authority on the thinking of the GMs of every Major League team - which seems unlikely in many respects - consider that there remain many teams who either have a protected first round pick or will receive a compensation pick at the end of the first round, plus those receiving extra competitive balance selections, plus those who have already forfeited (or plan to forfeit) their first round pick to sign another free agent. So your contrast is, at minimum, factually incorrect.
|
|
|
Post by docman on Nov 14, 2013 15:13:45 GMT -5
Middlebrooks as anything more than an emergency 1B entering the season makes zero sense to me. Remember, he didn't hit well enough last year to lock down the full-time 3B spot, and the offensive baseline at 1B is much, much higher. The guy had 17/49 in 347 ab. And, yeah, he didn't lock down 3B because he stumbled so badly out of the gate. Everybody seems to remember him struggling in September, but even then he hit .244. In August he was on fire at .322. Putting the two together, he hit .276/8/24 after he came back. Of course, he went into a slump late season and got replaced by Bogaerts, so everyone is questioning him. Fair enough. Then there are questions about his intangibles. Is he willing to work hard enough to make himself better? I can't speak for anyone else, but I see all the tools for the guy to be a better hitter than Napoli, so yeah, I'm willing to throw in his name for consideration, with the caveat that if he isn't willing to put in the work, he'll go out and prove me wrong.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Nov 14, 2013 15:46:43 GMT -5
Who has questioned his intangibles? To the best of my knowledge, noone has ever indicted Middlebrooks' work ethic or attitude.
The issue is just that he's not a good enough hitter to play first base. Both his career line of .254/.294/.462 (100 wRC+) and his 2014 Steamer projection of .260/.307/.460 (105 wRC+) are well below-average for a first baseman (AL 1B hit .252/.330/.444 (113 wRC+) in 2013). Even his overall post-sabbatical line of .276/.329/.476 (114 wRC+) is only averagish. There's no scenario in which you pencil him in as a starter at 1B as long as Mike Carp and Daniel Nava are in the organization (although Middlebrooks might justifiably get some playing time there versus lefties). Hell, I might even prefer Alex Hassan there more than Middlebrooks. If Will is going to stay on the roster, it's going to have to be on the basis of his play at 3B.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Nov 14, 2013 16:38:13 GMT -5
If another team signs Napoli they don't have a first round pick. If the Sox do, they still have one. whether you choose to consider that a difference or not, is another story, but I can promise you it affect the way a team thinks. Even if I accepted you as an authority on the thinking of the GMs of every Major League team - which seems unlikely in many respects - consider that there remain many teams who either have a protected first round pick or will receive a compensation pick at the end of the first round, plus those receiving extra competitive balance selections, plus those who have already forfeited (or plan to forfeit) their first round pick to sign another free agent. So your contrast is, at minimum, factually incorrect. either you are completely missing my point or we'll just have to agree to disagree. Perhaps, my last post was sloppy. I never said all those things were not a factor when a team is deciding whether to sign a free agent or not. I actually agree that they all factor into a teams decisions. This is a question of gaining a pick versus losing a pick. If you want to argue the Sox earned that pick the second Napoli turned down arbitration, that's fine, there's basis to that, but then it puts them in a different category than the teams without compensatory picks. Add to that the fact that the Sox have 3 of these players in total and it puts them into an even different category. You seem to think that the Sox will look at Mike Napoli just as they would any other free agent with a QO attached to them, which I disagree with. The Red Sox and their thinking about their own free agent is different from an outside free agent.. The Red Sox won't shy away from signing Napoli because they can get a pick if they don't. I don't see how this is debatable since they've already stated a desire to bring him back even after he declined the offer. Yet they will shy away from signing outside free agents with a pick attached to them. I believe this to be proof that that they look at these two situations differently., which is my point. No one is saying that other teams wouldn't sign Napoli because of the QO. It was just listed as a negative, which it clearly
|
|
|
Post by docman on Nov 14, 2013 16:38:16 GMT -5
Who has questioned his intangibles? To the best of my knowledge, noone has ever indicted Middlebrooks' work ethic or attitude. The issue is just that he's not a good enough hitter to play first base. Both his career line of .254/.294/.462 (100 wRC+) and his 2014 Steamer projection of .260/.307/.460 (105 wRC+) are well below-average for a first baseman (AL 1B hit .252/.330/.444 (113 wRC+) in 2013). Even his overall post-sabbatical line of .276/.329/.476 (114 wRC+) is only averagish. There's no scenario in which you pencil him in as a starter at 1B as long as Mike Carp and Daniel Nava are in the organization (although Middlebrooks might justifiably get some playing time there versus lefties). Hell, I might even prefer Alex Hassan there more than Middlebrooks. If Will is going to stay on the roster, it's going to have to be on the basis of his play at 3B. Some guy on a Sox board questioned his intangibles (for what that's worth). Personally, I think it's a moot point, because I believe the Napoli deal will get done. Having said that, I (obviously) think he's a better hitter than you do. When I look at his numbers over the past 5 years, I see 2013 as an aberration. I see him closer to a .270 hitter than a .260 hitter, and his lowest OBP before 2013 was .327, so I'm certainly not projecting anything as low as .294 or .307 (and yes, those are bad numbers). I just see him rebounding/progressing next year into at least an average hitter at 1B. If you disagree, that's fine.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Nov 14, 2013 16:51:52 GMT -5
Having said that, I (obviously) think he's a better hitter than you do. When I look at his numbers over the past 5 years, I see 2013 as an aberration. I see him closer to a .270 hitter than a .260 hitter, and his lowest OBP before 2013 was .327, so I'm certainly not projecting anything as low as .294 or .307 (and yes, those are bad numbers). I just see him rebounding/progressing next year into at least an average hitter at 1B. If you disagree, that's fine. Here's the thing: if Middlebrooks can hit, say, .270/.320/.480, he'd be roughly a three win player at 3B (assuming he's an average defender there). Shift him to first base, however, and he'd only be a two win player, even assuming he's an above-average defensive 1B. No matter how well he hits, there's pretty much no reason he should primarily be a first baseman-- if you think he's really that good with the bat, the answer is not to play him at 1B, but rather to not sign Stephen Drew to block him and instead spend that money on a first baseman.
|
|
|
Post by elguapo on Nov 14, 2013 16:56:41 GMT -5
either you are completely missing my point or we'll just have to agree to disagree. Perhaps, my last post was sloppy. You said that any team that signed Napoli would lose their first round pick, and I pointed out that is not accurate. I'm not sure how I could make that more clear to you. There is zero evidence that this is true. There is a great deal of evidence to the contrary, as the Sox have reportedly considered signing free agents for which they would forfeit a pick - last offseason with Swisher and Kuroda, among others, this offseason with Beltran & McCann. It seems very clear to me that the Sox put a value on the pick that would be lost (or gained) and factor that into their evaluation of a player's overall value. Beltran & McCann are likely to command too much of a commitment plus the pick, similar to Ellsbury - and there is a fair chance Napoli will fall into the same category.
|
|
|
Post by anthonyws2013 on Nov 14, 2013 17:02:19 GMT -5
Having said that, I (obviously) think he's a better hitter than you do. When I look at his numbers over the past 5 years, I see 2013 as an aberration. I see him closer to a .270 hitter than a .260 hitter, and his lowest OBP before 2013 was .327, so I'm certainly not projecting anything as low as .294 or .307 (and yes, those are bad numbers). I just see him rebounding/progressing next year into at least an average hitter at 1B. If you disagree, that's fine. Here's the thing: if Middlebrooks can hit, say, .270/.320/.480, he'd be roughly a three win player at 3B (assuming he's an average defender there). Shift him to first base, however, and he'd only be a two win player, even assuming he's an above-average defensive 1B. No matter how well he hits, there's pretty much no reason he should primarily be a first baseman-- if you think he's really that good with the bat, the answer is not to play him at 1B, but rather to not sign Stephen Drew to block him and instead spend that money on a first baseman. I 100% agree we have seen that Middlebrooks can more than handle himself at third base playing average or above league average defense. His bat was suspect this year and I really hate how fast an entire organization can turn on a 25 year old player who struggled in his first real season as a pro. Taking a look at close to one full year in the MLB for Will Middlebrooks, in 169 games he has 32 HR's 103 RBI's and a .254 average... I would take that in a third baseman playing above average defense every year. Why move a player where its all about the offensive output and little about defense because its the easiest position on the diamond to play. Leave him at third base and let him play and he will figure it out or will find himself out of Boston either why will find out if he is our third baseman of the future paired along with Xander.
|
|
|