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Potential RHB to Platoon with Bradley?
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 14, 2013 17:19:17 GMT -5
Using the term "first rd pick" was where I was sloppy. Ill end this here as I agree with most of what you are saying I get all of it but think you're either missing what I am trying to say or just don't see it that way. If it's the former, it's my error and poor writing and if it's the later we just completely disagree.
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Post by docman on Nov 14, 2013 20:09:11 GMT -5
Having said that, I (obviously) think he's a better hitter than you do. When I look at his numbers over the past 5 years, I see 2013 as an aberration. I see him closer to a .270 hitter than a .260 hitter, and his lowest OBP before 2013 was .327, so I'm certainly not projecting anything as low as .294 or .307 (and yes, those are bad numbers). I just see him rebounding/progressing next year into at least an average hitter at 1B. If you disagree, that's fine. Here's the thing: if Middlebrooks can hit, say, .270/.320/.480, he'd be roughly a three win player at 3B (assuming he's an average defender there). Shift him to first base, however, and he'd only be a two win player, even assuming he's an above-average defensive 1B. No matter how well he hits, there's pretty much no reason he should primarily be a first baseman-- if you think he's really that good with the bat, the answer is not to play him at 1B, but rather to not sign Stephen Drew to block him and instead spend that money on a first baseman. Well, like I said, I think it's a moot point, because I strongly suspect Nap will be back. My original point was simply that If the Sox aren't able to re-sign Nap, it's not the end of the world. My go-to option at that point would be Beltran in LF. After that, I couldn't think of another 1B option, off the top of my head, so I proposed Drew simply because he did so well with the glove last year. As you point out, though, bringing Drew back would mean sacrificing hitting for fielding. In any case, if Nap comes back, hey, I'll welcome him. If he doesn't (for some odd reason), then Beltran would be my next option. I would put Hart in the mix, but not after two knee surgeries. Looking at the free agency possibilities on Sox Prospects, I don't want Morneau, I'm not exactly thrilled about Morales, and looking at Trumbo's stats, well, power is certainly there, but he's not much of a hitter.
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Post by jhenrywaugh, prop. on Nov 14, 2013 21:43:52 GMT -5
I see 3 options regarding 1B 1. Re-sign Nap 2. Sign Beltran to play LF, Nava/Carp at 1B.2. Re-sign Drew, move Bogaerts to 3B and Middlebrooks to 1B Since Nap and the Sox both appear to want to get the deal done, I'd say #1 is the favorite, but I wouldn't lose any sleep over 2 or 3. I may be too preoccupied with run production, but it's the reason I only like the first two options. Free-agency only presents three solid options for the Sox in Napoli, Beltran, and McCann. Obviously trades would be an option, and the Sox have plenty of assets, but if Ben is hell-bent on hanging on to them, I think he's going to have to get at least one of these bats if he intends to start using some of these assets. I think there's a good chance that all three of X, WMB, and JBJ are productive out of the gate, and I actually like JBJ's chances best because of his superior D and ability to work the count. I wouldn't complain about signing Young as a contingency plan, but they didn't do that with Pedroia, and they already have Victorino if they need a CF. I'd really like to see the kids sink or swim, but only if there's a little more run production in the lineup.
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Post by jmei on Nov 14, 2013 22:01:32 GMT -5
I may be too preoccupied with run production, but it's the reason I only like the first two options. Free-agency only presents three solid options for the Sox in Napoli, Beltran, and McCann. What about Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, Curtis Granderson, Jhonny Peralta, etc.? Many of those guys have potential question marks, but so do Napoli, Beltran and McCann.
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Post by jhenrywaugh, prop. on Nov 15, 2013 22:22:28 GMT -5
I may be too preoccupied with run production, but it's the reason I only like the first two options. Free-agency only presents three solid options for the Sox in Napoli, Beltran, and McCann. What about Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, Curtis Granderson, Jhonny Peralta, etc.? Many of those guys have potential question marks, but so do Napoli, Beltran and McCann. You're right. I was a bit limited, focusing on the players I like. I do think Ellsbury is out based on price and alternatives in JBJ and Victorino. I wouldn't be upset with Choo at the right price, his platoon split is a problem, and he's not coming in at the right price. Granderson is intriguing. Very curious to see where he comes in. Could be an ideal candidate for a pillow contract. Slipped my mind. I don't see Peralta as much of an upgrade to anyone position he could fill on the roster. Some assurance at third, could be a pricey utility player that would make us all feel better. That could make a bit of sense, though he's not much insurance in the field at SS.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 16, 2013 0:23:46 GMT -5
I think the real question that should be asked here is this: if the Sox re-sign neither Ellsbury nor Napoli, what should they do? Bradley fills one roster spot, but who fills the other?
So this question is actually secondary to the larger one: should they first pursue Beltran, Choo, Granderson, or some other OF? In which case, Nava and Carp share 1B.
Or should they trade for Pablo Sandoval, who would also function as a backup 3B and emergency catcher? Or some other, as yet unrumored 1B fix? In that scenario, Carp returns as the first bat off the bench.
Only if you pass on both of these fallback options (or are forced to pass on them), making Carp the regular 1B, do you start to think about filling the last roster spot with a bench player. The clear defensive need is for someone who can play RF, so that Nava is not your backup RF.
But it's not obvious that this last man should hit right-handed and hence be a platoon option for Bradley and Carp. If you end up with Carlos Ruiz or Ryan Hanigan at catcher, you might be pinch-hitting for them with some frequency, and it might make more sense to have a lefty bat on the bench (along with Gomes) to do so. I'm not saying that's so, but it is worth discussing. Because if Bradley turns out to hit lefties OK, this extra RH bat on the bench is suddenly less useful than you thought he'd be.
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Post by jdb on Nov 16, 2013 10:21:05 GMT -5
Looking at some potential targets I was surprised UZR says Corey Hart has played a pretty average RF the last few years, granted before his knee injury. If you sign him for 1B he could play 30 ish games in RF whenever Victorino or JBJ needs a day off.
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Post by ikonos on Nov 16, 2013 15:16:02 GMT -5
Redsox production this year out of SS + 3B was not that great to start with. I think production from XB + WMB + JB will more or less equal the production Sox got out of SS + 3B + CF this year. They had a better defensive year overall out of those three combined positions this year than they potentially could get next year. I fully expect WMB will hit (even with ton of K's) next year to the tune of 700-750 OPS with a positive surprise to the upside and with out looking at the numbers I think that was more than this years production from 3B. XB and WMB will provide the RH power the team needs in addition to Napoli (I think he will be back). I dont think the sox will have problems putting up runs though they might be inconsistent. The question is whether the Sox pitching will have a good year or not after having a long year this year. Ton of tired arms in the BP with Taz, Uehara and Workman logging lot of innings this year.
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