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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 25, 2013 19:15:50 GMT -5
Which is: it would be great to have Brock Holt available to ride the Pawtucket shuttle all year, whenever anyone had to go on the DL, but he may be the best overall option for the big league team.
There are three FA backup SS (including anyone who can play there adequately) who were above replacement level last year: Munenori Kawaskai, Clint Barmes, and Ramon Santiago. (Willie Bloomquist is just an emergency SS these days.)
I can find four guys who were above replacement level and might be available via trade: the Diamondbacks' Cliff Pennington (possibly made redundant by Chris Owings), the Yankees' Jayson Nix (like Holt, primarily a 2B but an adequate defensive SS, available because they re-signed Brendan Ryan), the Mets' Justin Turner (also primarily a 2B; they already have Omar Quintanilla as a pure backup SS and have prospect Wilmer Flores who could also take Turner's job), and old friend Mike Aviles (the Indians could go with rookie Jose Ramirez and save Aviles' $3M salary).
But before I take a look at how Holt compares with those seven (everyone else, please go ahead without me!), there are two other things to consider.
First, you really need to look at where Stephen Drew might end up, because wherever he does, that probably means an incumbent is on the trading block -- an incumbent who may be a good option as a backup.
So let's just run down all the MLB SS who were well below average last year, in reverse order of WAR normalized to 500 PA (averaging bWAR and fWAR). I've bolded the names of teams I think might sign Drew.
-5.7. Derek Jeter, Yankees. Yes, they already have three backup shortstops (Brendan Ryan, Jayson Nix, Eduardo Nunez). And they hope to be unable to afford this, because they've re-signed Cano, signed Beltran, and grabbed Tanaka. But this move would make sense if they had money left to burn; Drew could platoon with Jeter, and against RHP Jeter would share DH with Vernon Wells (and with Beltran on days when Ichiro played RF).
-2.0. Adeiny Hechavarria, Marlins. He shows no signs of getting any better at the plate, but it's hard to imagine the Marlins giving up even a second round pick to invest in Drew.
-1.6. Ruben Tejada, Mets. Latest report is that they're not interested, and the smart thing to do would be to give the kid a chance to bounce back. But the reports may be posturing.
-0.3, Starlin Castro, Cubs, and Jonathan Villar, Astros. Who will be given chances to bounce back and improve, respectively.
0.7. Alcides Escobar, Royals. While he's not this bad, he's not as good as he was in 2012, either. Steamer's projecting him for 1.1, and Clay Davenport (who certainly appears to have an old version of PECOTA stashed on a hard drive) is more in the 0.9 range. Their next-up SS prospect, Orlando Calixte, didn't light it up in AA, so Drew could be a bridge to Adalberto Mondesi. Upgrading to Drew (3.9) could get them halfway to the playoffs.
0.8. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies. He has an $11M option for 2015 that vests with 434 PA. They should be all over Drew like brown on healthy rice, which you could then put on Rollins, who is toast. They could deal Rollins to a team that wants a veteran backup, eat most of this year's contract, and still save enough money to pay for an entire season of Drew. Are they that smart, though? (Their only SS prospect of note, Roman Quinn, struggled a bit (669 OPS) in low A.)
1.0. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians. Ought to come back (and hence negate any Royals' signing of Drew, but who said life is fair?).
And a bonus candidate:
1.8. Zack Cozart, Reds. Yes, he's perfectly decent, maybe the 20th best SS in the game ... but he's 28 already and not getting any better. Drew would be a 2-win upgrade in a tremendously competitive division.
Now, did you remember that I said there were two other things to consider, before we look at the seven initial candidates? I saved this one for the end.
What if Dustin Pedroia was your backup SS? I'm guessing he'd tell you he could still play there.
If Pedroia could be the guy who starts a dozen random games when Xander needs a rest, then you could fill this roster spot with a pure 3B / 2B type. And that expands the list of potential acquisitions significantly, and it means that the bench guy can be more suited to stepping in if Middlebrooks falters.
In particular, after signing Nick Punto, the A's seem likely to deal Alberto Callaspo, who is essentially an average MLB 3B.
So, questions for all:
Is there anyone who you think might be available in trade that I overlooked?
Where do you think Drew is headed?
Do you think Pedroia can be the backup SS?
And who do you like for this roster spot? (I don't have any opinion yet myself, because I've just been trying to identify the candidates.)
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 25, 2013 19:40:26 GMT -5
I believed it was always going to be necessary to bring in someone who could actually play an above level shortstop as a backup. Xander will do fine, but he may have a few hiccups along the way. The thing that actually worries me the most is whether Will Middlebrooks will be a consistent presence for the entire year. Don't get me wrong....I want him to get a full chance this upcoming season, but there may be times when resting Xander or moving him to 3rd at times happens.
I am sure Pedroia would kill himself trying to play on the left side for the team. Not high on that move. But, since Brendan Ryan was already picked up by the Yanks, I think Clint Barmes would be a cheap and steady fix. He will be 35 in March and doesn't hit a lick, but he can be counted on and for me he would be my choice.
Once Drew left, and he will, we needed someone who could backup shortstop....and there are few real candidates.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 25, 2013 19:52:22 GMT -5
How about Danny Espinosa as a trade candidate from a team that could use some more pitching?
I don't see Farrel or BC allowing Pedroia to play SS. Too important a player, too much invested and no longer the young guy he thinks he is.
If I'm the Indians - I'm holding onto Aviles. But he is perfect because he could also offer a 2nd RH bat in the OF when/if necessary. (So Gomes in LF, Aviles in RF and Victorino in CF; if the other option are struggling vs lefties)
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Post by jmei on Nov 25, 2013 21:09:39 GMT -5
A few free agent names I think you've overlooked: Jamey Carroll (primarily played 2B in 2013 but has played significant innings of above-average SS defense as recently as 2012; I've discussed him previously here) Alexi Casilla (was only worth 0.2 fWAR in 2013 but is only 29 and put up a combined 2.6 fWAR in 861 PAs between 2010-12) Luis Cruz (below replacement level last year, but had a 2.4 fWAR in 296 PAs in 2012 and is only 30) I would prefer to have Holt stashed in AAA to start the season to maximize depth. Pedroia won't be the only backup SS-- he hasn't played there in the majors leagues since 2006, and it's asking a lot to have him pick up a more challenging defensive position after not playing it in seven years.
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Post by bentossaurus on Nov 25, 2013 21:12:16 GMT -5
-5.7. Derek Jeter, Yankees. Yes, they already have three backup shortstops (Brendan Ryan, Jayson Nix, Eduardo Nunez). And they hope to be unable to afford this, because they've re-signed Cano, signed Beltran, and grabbed Tanaka. But this move would make sense if they had money left to burn; Drew could platoon with Jeter, and against RHP Jeter would share DH with Vernon Wells (and with Beltran on days when Ichiro played RF). For a second you made me run to open up rotoworld.com.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 25, 2013 21:29:19 GMT -5
Is it necessary to have much more then a temporary or emergency fill-in for short if Xander is the starter and Holt is in AAA?
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,989
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Post by jimoh on Nov 25, 2013 21:58:07 GMT -5
... 0.8. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies. He has an $11M option for 2015 that vests with 434 PA. They should be all over Drew like brown on healthy rice, which you could then put on Rollins, who is toast. They could deal Rollins to a team that wants a veteran backup, eat most of this year's contract, and still save enough money to pay for an entire season of Drew. Are they that smart, though? (Their only SS prospect of note, Roman Quinn, struggled a bit (669 OPS) in low A.) ... Phillies first-round pick J.C Crawford had a great short-season, hitting .345 .443 .465 908 before hitting .208 .300 .226 526 in a few at bats in low A, with great reports on D. They think he's the next big thing, and several people think he's their #2 prospect. Not a factor in 2014 or even 2015, but definitely "of note." (Roman Quinn not only "struggled a bit" but he ruptured his Achilles earlier this month and could miss all of 2014.) They also still like Rollins, who is an average offensive SS who hit 23 hrs in 2012, and they say he still plays good D. Since turning 30 he's stolen 130 base and been caught 28 times (last year 22 sb 6 cs). No other team is going to be as willing to pay him 11M in 2015 as they are.
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Post by sammo420 on Nov 25, 2013 22:03:39 GMT -5
Is it necessary to have much more then a temporary or emergency fill-in for short if Xander is the starter and Holt is in AAA? A good glove defensive replacement late in games would be nice.
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Post by jmei on Nov 25, 2013 22:19:59 GMT -5
Is it necessary to have much more then a temporary or emergency fill-in for short if Xander is the starter and Holt is in AAA? It's a lot to expect Xander to play 150+ games in his first full major league season. It would be nice to have a capable backup if Xander has a day-to-day type of injury or needs a routine day off (or, god forbid, if he pulls a Pedroia circa April 2007).
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Post by taftreign on Nov 25, 2013 22:41:13 GMT -5
Rafael Furcal? How much does he cost at this point? May not be the most cost effective target if the main focus is a glove first SS but worth considering.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Nov 25, 2013 22:55:01 GMT -5
John McDonald? He can't hit worth a lick but he is an excellent defender and cheap.
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Post by elguapo on Nov 25, 2013 23:23:11 GMT -5
Ivan De Jesus - good track record, good on-base ability, even better numbers after leaving the PCL, well seasoned at AAA, entering his prime, minimum salary, ideal utility infielder. You can get a veteran who's guaranteed to be mediocre to bad for more money or give a shot to a young player with some upside.
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Post by jmei on Nov 25, 2013 23:30:37 GMT -5
Ivan De Jesus - good track record, good on-base ability, even better numbers after leaving the PCL, well seasoned at AAA, entering his prime, minimum salary, ideal utility infielder. You can get a veteran who's guaranteed to be mediocre to bad for more money or give a shot to a young player with some upside. He'd be great on a minor-league deal with an invitation to Spring Training (Pawtucket has an opening in the starting infield at 2B or SS (depending where Holt plays)), but he's probably worse than Holt. His great triple-slash in the minors last year heavily relied on an unsustainable BABIP, and his defense at SS is passable at best. His 2014 Steamer projection (.258/.311/.355, 80 wRC+) is a fair bit worse than Holt's (.275/.331/.359, 88 wRC+).
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Post by elguapo on Nov 26, 2013 0:06:13 GMT -5
he's probably worse than Holt. His great triple-slash in the minors last year heavily relied on an unsustainable BABIP, and his defense at SS is passable at best. His 2014 Steamer projection (.258/.311/.355, 80 wRC+) is a fair bit worse than Holt's (.275/.331/.359, 88 wRC+). I like Holt well enough, and in fact they have certain similarities (which likely drew the interest of the Sox in each case) but one of the two has options, and of course De Jesus has the better year in 2013 by a good margin, though without the benefit of a stint in the majors. Steamer projections for minor leaguers I think we can safely disregard. De Jesus has consistently hit for average (.300 for MiL career, .306 AAA) and maintained respectable BB and K rates, and thus a consistently healthy OBP. So I don't think trying to nitpick BABIP in this instance will fly. He also drilled a fair count of xbh last season, at a higher rate than his last two seasons in the PCL.
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Post by jmei on Nov 26, 2013 0:29:58 GMT -5
De Jesus has the better year in 2013 by a good margin, though without the benefit of a stint in the majors. [...] De Jesus has consistently hit for average (.300 for MiL career, .306 AAA) and maintained respectable BB and K rates, and thus a consistently healthy OBP. So I don't think trying to nitpick BABIP in this instance will fly. He also drilled a fair count of xbh last season, at a higher rate than his last two seasons in the PCL. Holt struck out less (16.4% vs 18.8%) and walked more (9.1% vs. 8.7%) than De Jesus in 2013. De Jesus did hit for more power, but much of that was doubles and triples (30 doubles/triples and only 3 HR), which, as I've discussed before, is far less predictive than home run power. De Jesus is a legitimately better power hitter, but Holt's superior BB/K rates and defense makes him my preferred option. (Note that while De Jesus has also been a high-BABIP hitter throughout the minors (career .348), so has Holt (career .351).
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Post by elguapo on Nov 26, 2013 9:17:10 GMT -5
De Jesus did hit for more power, but much of that was doubles and triples (30 doubles/triples and only 3 HR), which, as I've discussed before, is far less predictive than home run power. C'mon, don't be foolish to argue a point. De Jesus had 27 doubles, 3 triples, 3 HR last season at AAA, Holt had 6-0-3, with 2 doubles in Boston. De Jesus had a far better season, period. Yes, as I pointed out, both have good track records. Are you now going to disagree that Holt has options and De Jesus doesn't?
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Post by jmei on Nov 26, 2013 9:37:40 GMT -5
My point is that De Jesus' one advantage in 2013 (doubles/triples power) fluctuates a lot and is less predictive than Holt's superior walk and strikeout rates, which means we should regress it more heavily. De Jesus has hit for much more power at higher levels (career .119 ISO at AAA, compared to .065 for Holt), but a lot of De Jesus' AAA stats were, as you noted, accumulated in the power-inflating PCL. Across their minor leagues careers, Holt's ISO (.100) actually tops De Jesus' (.096).
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Post by elguapo on Nov 26, 2013 10:27:16 GMT -5
My point is that De Jesus' one advantage in 2013 (doubles/triples power) fluctuates a lot and is less predictive than Holt's superior walk and strikeout rates, which means we should regress it more heavily. Regress it as much as you like - he had 3X the xbh - it won't change the conclusion. As I noted, De Jesus actually had better power numbers post-PCL, and besides never saw his HR numbers pop in that environment. Also, as you know but choose to ignore in pursuit of a point, it makes little sense to bypass AAA to point to career numbers driven by respective ISOs in low A to AA, when Holt came out of college and De Jesus was an age-advanced kid out of high school. Yes, Holt had a .150 ISO in short season ball at 21, so helpful to know. What does it matter now that De Jesus had a .099 ISO (and 133 wRC+) at AA as a 21-year-old while Holt had a slightly higher .105 at 23 and while repeating the level at 24?
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Post by jmei on Nov 26, 2013 10:51:02 GMT -5
My point is that De Jesus' one advantage in 2013 (doubles/triples power) fluctuates a lot and is less predictive than Holt's superior walk and strikeout rates, which means we should regress it more heavily. Regress it as much as you like - he had 3X the xbh - it won't change the conclusion. I said in my first post that De Jesus has more power. My point the last few posts is that his 2013 stats likely exaggerate that advantage, and we should see the gap narrow in the future. The real question is whether De Jesus' superior power outweighs Holt's advantage in walks, strikeouts, and defense-- I don't think it does. You raise a very real point re: Holt's options and De Jesus' lack of them, but the fact that De Jesus would come on a minor league deal (and there's no reason he wouldn't-- better players like Yamaico Navarro and Casper Wells have had to settle for them) negates that somewhat. Either way, they'll likely compete for the backup infielder role in Spring Training, but I do think Holt looks a little better from my vantage point.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 26, 2013 13:33:56 GMT -5
Is it necessary to have much more then a temporary or emergency fill-in for short if Xander is the starter and Holt is in AAA? It's a lot to expect Xander to play 150+ games in his first full major league season. It would be nice to have a capable backup if Xander has a day-to-day type of injury or needs a routine day off (or, god forbid, if he pulls a Pedroia circa April 2007). I don't think it's too much to ask at all. In fact, I think it's to be expected (barring injury of course) Pedrioa played 139 games his rookie year because he was terrible in the early going. Had he not struggled to epic proportions (and Cora wasn't so damn good) then he would have hit 150 games easily. Xander fared much better then Pedroia did in his initial stint and his approach is better than what Pedey's was (is?)... Xander also played close to 140 games (not counting playoffs) between all levels last year. He would have made it to 150+ had he played every day in the majors when he got promoted. I get the need to have a short stop as a back-up so this isn't an argument against that. It's just that whoever we have, shouldn't get all that much time there if Xander is the starting shortstop and healthy. If you believe that as I do, then that can change who you target as a utility player. I think a defensive replacement late in the game is a terrible idea. If they choose to go with him at short they need to live and die with that during the majority of the season. He needs the reps in all different situations, including late to improve his game, if that is even an issue, which I don't think it is. The fact they have Holt and Snyder in the minors is huge for depth. Both give them protection at 3b and Holt gives protection at short stop. These aren't guys who you want to pencil in as your starting players, but they are very good options down in the minors to bring in as fill-ins who can do some damage. Snyder had some good games in Boston last year.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 26, 2013 16:56:00 GMT -5
My preference is for a veteran SS who can play close to 40 games. A veteran who can continue to work alongside the coaching staff in helping Bogaert's defensive progression. I'd figure to have Xander playing between 120 to 125 games at SS and the other 20 games the backup plays and Xander slides over to play 3B giving WMB around 140 to 145 games played at 3B. The veteran SS doesn't have to be a defensive specialist in my opinion sacrificing offense. By the time late August roles around I actually think with another full season in the minors Marrero could be a late season roster addition and provide above average major league defense off the bench. Wouldn't be a completely hollow bat either.
As for who that veteran SS is I've not decided. If the right candidate doesn't present itself on the market I wouldn't rule out moving a minor prospect to bring in a veteran SS via a trade.
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 26, 2013 17:08:16 GMT -5
I'm all for Clint Barmes. He can still play a very good SS. His bat is pretty much nothing, but I think in a back up role it won't hurt that bad.
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Post by okin15 on Nov 27, 2013 16:38:28 GMT -5
I don't think we want one of the trade options. A 6+ year vet with little upside but something to prove is the perfect candidate here. Barmes, Kawasaki, Santiago all make sense.
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 28, 2013 4:20:32 GMT -5
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Post by moonstone2 on Nov 28, 2013 20:01:42 GMT -5
John McDonald? He can't hit worth a lick but he is an excellent defender and cheap. Don't ask me why I thought this. But I had thought that this was the idea when they acquired John this year. The benefits of making him the backup SS are that he could act as a defacto infield coach and help Xander with his defense and that he would likely sign a minor league deal, which would save the team a 40 man roster spot until April. Either way I would fully expect JMac would be with the Sox in some capacity in 2014 either as an instructor, NESN analyst, or player. Given his ties to the area, I would imagine that he will either play for the Sox or retire.
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