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Post by mattpicard on Dec 7, 2013 16:55:23 GMT -5
Wouldn't mind trade for Eric Sogard. He seems to be the odd man out with Lowrie, Donaldson, Callaspo and Punto on the 25 man roster. He's a lefty which is a plus in this case IMO. Steamer and Oliver project a 95 and 93 WRC+ for him respectively. Steamer has hi pegged for a 1.0 WAR. Interesting. I missed him because he hadn't played enough SS. His experience there is 97 games in the minors and 28 starts in the majors. His arm strength is fringy for the left side of the infield, where he'd see almost all of his action. I actually think that Callaspo is their odd man out, anyway; Sogard starts at 2B and Lowrie at SS, with the option of Punto at SS and Lowrie at 2B. Was about to say the same. I figure Sogard will grab around 75% of the starts at second, with Punto getting a decent amount of time as well. Callaspo can really only play third base as an adequate level - his range these days doesn't get it done at second. I think Carroll makes the most sense at this point - Barmes works if you want top-tier defense at short, but his lack of experience at third could be an issue since the backup player could easily be looking at more time there than at short. Also, not sure Barmes would want a role that, if things go as planned, would offer minimal playing time.
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 8, 2013 15:22:07 GMT -5
The Nationals are rumored to be looking at left handed relievers. Given our abundance I'd look into a trade of a Britton or Morales centered package for Danny Espinosa. With the emergence of Anthony Rendon he's now their back up infielder. I think they are better off trading him. He was terrible in 2013, but pretty good in 2011-2012. He played decent enough at short stop in a small sample size to at least play it in a pinch.
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Post by mulecrossing on Dec 8, 2013 15:32:36 GMT -5
What about Justin Turner - the Mets just non-tendered him. The last two years he's put up a decent line in a pitcher's ballpark. Limited time at short, but has good defensive numbers when he's played there.
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 8, 2013 15:36:05 GMT -5
What about Justin Turner - the Mets just non-tendered him. The last two years he's put up a decent line in a pitcher's ballpark. Limited time at short, but has good defensive numbers when he's played there. Turner is a pretty bad defender at both second and third base in bigger samples. So I think the solid numbers at SS are small sample size noises.
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 8, 2013 16:06:07 GMT -5
Jon Heyman ?@jonheymancbs 8m #mariners getting lots of calls on their kids. Nick franklin obvs likely to go, maybe others too. Playing to win now.
Another possibility? Not that likely, because the lack of experience. He's a solid prospect though with experience at multiple infield positions.
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Post by jmei on Dec 8, 2013 16:13:34 GMT -5
Espinosa and Franklin are good players, and it's going to take a legitimate prospect package to get one of them. You won't be able to get them for spare parts. Keep in mind that there are plenty of teams looking for starting infielders, and so even though Espinosa had a bad 2013 and Franklin is now blocked, they're not going to come for cheap.
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 8, 2013 16:18:24 GMT -5
Espinosa and Franklin are good players, and it's going to take a legitimate prospect package to get one of them. You won't be able to get them for spare parts. Keep in mind that there are plenty of teams looking for starting infielders, and so even though Espinosa had a bad 2013 and Franklin is now blocked, they're not going to come for cheap. I know that, but I think we're in a good position to trade. I would like a better player than most back ups, since Middlebrooks is a risk. If he struggles again, we need a plan B with Bogaerts moving back to third.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 8, 2013 18:19:09 GMT -5
Espinosa and Franklin are good players, and it's going to take a legitimate prospect package to get one of them. You won't be able to get them for spare parts. Keep in mind that there are plenty of teams looking for starting infielders, and so even though Espinosa had a bad 2013 and Franklin is now blocked, they're not going to come for cheap. I know that, but I think we're in a good position to trade. I would like a better player than most back ups, since Middlebrooks is a risk. If he struggles again, we need a plan B with Bogaerts moving back to third. Right, but his point is that the cost of those guys is high enough that you don't acquire them to be Plan B. Speculation has been that Franklin may be included in a proposal to go get David Price. You may like to have a better backup than what they're going to wind up getting, but that doesn't make it prudent to go get one.
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Post by greenmonster on Dec 8, 2013 19:19:36 GMT -5
I wonder if Josh Rutledge from Colorado is available. Down year last year and lost his 2B job to LeMahieu. Has played SS for an extended period while Tulo was hurt. RH bat with some pop and he can run a little also.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 8, 2013 19:49:03 GMT -5
I wonder if Josh Rutledge from Colorado is available. Down year last year and lost his 2B job to LeMahieu. Has played SS for an extended period while Tulo was hurt. RH bat with some pop and he can run a little also. Very small sample sizes but UZR/150 shows him to be a -4.5 2B and -20.3 SS. Anyone know if the scouting report backs this up?
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Post by mattpicard on Dec 8, 2013 20:05:06 GMT -5
I wonder if Josh Rutledge from Colorado is available. Down year last year and lost his 2B job to LeMahieu. Has played SS for an extended period while Tulo was hurt. RH bat with some pop and he can run a little also. Very small sample sizes but UZR/150 shows him to be a -4.5 2B and -20.3 SS. Anyone know if the scouting report backs this up? Sounds about right based on the scouting reports I can find. John Sickels notes that his range was "limited" and his arm was "so-so" when he played shortstop in the minors, but "looked much better" at second base. I'd also add that his DRS plus/minus numbers hate him even more than UZR, rating him as substantially below average at both positions. Considering the comments on him arm alone, I'd call into question his ability to play third base for us, which is perhaps the position we'd be most reliant on our backup infielder for. And then you find a report on him like this, which states he has "incredible range and arm strength." That's coming from a nobody, though. Edit: here's some video I looked up to get a good idea of his arm. Definitely not much oomph on these throws, but he's not David Eckstein either. wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=24408147&c_id=mlb (jump-throw in the hole) wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=24431133&c_id=mlb (planted throw in hole) wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=25060749&c_id=mlb (rangy spinning play by second)
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Post by greenmonster on Dec 8, 2013 20:45:38 GMT -5
I don't know much about UZR, but those clips looked pretty good to me. Certainly appears to be at least adequate in the field, showing range to his right and left with a strong arm, IMO.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 8, 2013 23:28:37 GMT -5
Meh, on the first two plays, you can tell he was positioned pretty far into the hole to begin with. On the second one in particular, he looks like he wasn't even hustling over to the spot.
Adequate sounds fine.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 8, 2013 23:32:50 GMT -5
I wonder if Josh Rutledge from Colorado is available. Down year last year and lost his 2B job to LeMahieu. Has played SS for an extended period while Tulo was hurt. RH bat with some pop and he can run a little also. Very small sample sizes but UZR/150 shows him to be a -4.5 2B and -20.3 SS. Anyone know if the scouting report backs this up? He's a guy that was on my initial list of trade candidates, and was eliminated because of the evidence that he can't play SS. 598 innings is not actually a very small sample size, based on my analysis of every UZR rating ever recorded (2002-13). The tendency for positive UZR to increase with SSS doesn't kick in until you get down to 950 innings, below which you have to regress to the mean to eliminate that trend. You do that by adding innings back to get to 950, but you add back UZR * .45, not MLB average innings. That empirically eliminates the trend for positive UZR to increase with smaller SSS, but doesn't create an opposite trend. It flattens the relationship between SSS and UZR very nicely. Year-to-year correlations then work down to 200 innings per year. Below that, they collapse. Rutledge was -20 UZR, -25 DRS, -16 Total Zone. Weighting them 2/2/1 and regressing, I've got -17. Now, on average that would project to very roughly half as bad, but the fact is that most of the SS innings were in 2012, so the Rockies clearly tried to diminish his innings there (and increase them at 2B). Doing the same thing with his 2B numbers yields -8. Utility guys are surprisingly only -2 at SS compared to 2B. If you subtract 2 from his 2B numbers and add it to his SS numbers, it's 1161 innings, which is well above not just the threshold for needing regression but the point at which year-to-year correlations don't get stronger. And you get -17 again. So we can actually regard him as a guy who had a -17 year at SS and then was moved to 2B. Now, maybe that was just a bad year (which is why projection models would still project something like half of that), but it happened and the Rockies didn't like it. With all the other viable candidates, he's easy to scratch off the list. Edit: and Clay Davenport had him at -9 in 205 games in the minors.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 9, 2013 1:31:43 GMT -5
Thanks for the awesome info guys
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Post by jrffam05 on Dec 10, 2013 11:28:36 GMT -5
I know that, but I think we're in a good position to trade. I would like a better player than most back ups, since Middlebrooks is a risk. If he struggles again, we need a plan B with Bogaerts moving back to third. Right, but his point is that the cost of those guys is high enough that you don't acquire them to be Plan B. Speculation has been that Franklin may be included in a proposal to go get David Price. You may like to have a better backup than what they're going to wind up getting, but that doesn't make it prudent to go get one. I actually think we match up well with Mariners for Franklin IF they miss out on Price/Tanaka. They are in "win now" mode, they need another starting pitcher, (And this scenario only works if this happens) they miss out on Price/Tanaka and instead of spending money on Garza/Santa/Jimenez they pick up one of Dempster/Peavy to bridge the gap to Paxton and company. We give them back Carp who fits perfectly back in at 1B/LF/DH. We add one more piece out of 3 options, a bullpen arm, preferably a LHP named Morales (or Britton), a backup catcher/DH in Lavarnway/Butler, or a prospect, my thought is somebody ranked lower than Swihart, but could be a AAA starter? Am I way off on the principal here? I feel like this could be either over or an under pay. It is the spare parts approach as it wouldn't change our everyday lineups, but I think it addresses both teams needs. Depends how the market plays out.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 10, 2013 12:46:23 GMT -5
First, you really need to look at where Stephen Drew might end up, because wherever he does, that probably means an incumbent is on the trading block -- an incumbent who may be a good option as a backup. -5.7 WAR. Derek Jeter, Yankees. 0.7. Alcides Escobar, Royals. And a bonus candidate: 1.8. Zack Cozart, Reds. Yes, he's perfectly decent, maybe the 20th best SS in the game ... but he's 28 already and not getting any better. Drew would be a 2-win upgrade in a tremendously competitive division. I still think the Yankees and Royals are candidates, but I missed a team, and that makes this really interesting. As I ran down the SS in reverse order of quality, the very next guy, the first guy I considered good enough to not lose his job, was the Pirates' Jordy Mercer. It turns out that all three available projections have his 2013 as a fluke good offensive year. In fact, his projected value is just about exactly the same as Cozart's, about 2 wins worse than Drew. (And Mercer was mentioned in some old article I stumbled on recently, as a guy who his team would be looking to improve on.) So, two division rivals in the second most competitive division on baseball, each equally in need of an upgrade at SS. Scott Boras is the agent. Is there really a chance that the best deal Boras can find for Drew is to return here? These are teams on the cusp of making the post-season, where a win is worth more like $7M than $5M. There will be a price point for Drew that will make irresistible sense for one of these teams, especially since it will mean keeping him away from the other. And I don't think the Pirates farm system, in particular, will collapse if they lose their first round pick. The Reds, BTW, are of two teams that don't have any kind of backup SS, the others being the Tigers (unless they're planning on using Lombardozzi as the backup). That suggests they've been thinking about Drew, and probably means that Cozart wouldn't be available if he lands there. But Mercer might be a good backup option if Drew signs with the Pirates (who have Josh Harrison as a backup).
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 11, 2013 3:12:42 GMT -5
First, you really need to look at where Stephen Drew might end up, because wherever he does, that probably means an incumbent is on the trading block -- an incumbent who may be a good option as a backup. -5.7 WAR. Derek Jeter, Yankees. 0.7. Alcides Escobar, Royals. And a bonus candidate: 1.8. Zack Cozart, Reds. Yes, he's perfectly decent, maybe the 20th best SS in the game ... but he's 28 already and not getting any better. Drew would be a 2-win upgrade in a tremendously competitive division. I still think the Yankees and Royals are candidates, but I missed a team, and that makes this really interesting. As I ran down the SS in reverse order of quality, the very next guy, the first guy I considered good enough to not lose his job, was the Pirates' Jordy Mercer. It turns out that all three available projections have his 2013 as a fluke good offensive year. In fact, his projected value is just about exactly the same as Cozart's, about 2 wins worse than Drew. (And Mercer was mentioned in some old article I stumbled on recently, as a guy who his team would be looking to improve on.) So, two division rivals in the second most competitive division on baseball, each equally in need of an upgrade at SS. Scott Boras is the agent. Is there really a chance that the best deal Boras can find for Drew is to return here? These are teams on the cusp of making the post-season, where a win is worth more like $7M than $5M. There will be a price point for Drew that will make irresistible sense for one of these teams, especially since it will mean keeping him away from the other. And I don't think the Pirates farm system, in particular, will collapse if they lose their first round pick. The Reds, BTW, are of two teams that don't have any kind of backup SS, the others being the Tigers (unless they're planning on using Lombardozzi as the backup). That suggests they've been thinking about Drew, and probably means that Cozart wouldn't be available if he lands there. But Mercer might be a good backup option if Drew signs with the Pirates (who have Josh Harrison as a backup). That makes sense up to the Tiger's part. I can't see the Tigers parting with the dollars it would take to sign Drew with Iglesias on their team.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 11, 2013 11:15:38 GMT -5
The Reds, BTW, are of two teams that don't have any kind of backup SS, the others being the Tigers (unless they're planning on using Lombardozzi as the backup). That suggests they've been thinking about Drew, and probably means that Cozart wouldn't be available if he lands there. But Mercer might be a good backup option if Drew signs with the Pirates (who have Josh Harrison as a backup). That makes sense up to the Tiger's part. I can't see the Tigers parting with the dollars it would take to sign Drew with Iglesias on their team. "They" = the Reds, as in the team that has Cozart. I mentioned the Tigers just as one of three teams looking for a backup SS; they're among our competition for Barmes, etc.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 11, 2013 11:33:17 GMT -5
OK, got it.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 11, 2013 14:00:43 GMT -5
Now that the tigers need sp, how about that Inglesias kid? (Dempster, straight up)
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Post by patrmac04 on Dec 11, 2013 15:06:53 GMT -5
Now that the tigers need sp, how about that Inglesias kid? (Dempster, straight up) It appears as though the Tigers have been shedding payroll, not to mention that all their starters are better than Dempster currently. I don't think that is a match at all. I'm thinking Diamondbacks or Mariners personally.
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 12, 2013 12:34:38 GMT -5
Barmes is re-signing with the Pirates.
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Post by bmitchsox on Dec 12, 2013 23:34:26 GMT -5
How do you guys feel about Chris Nelson? He hit .301 in 2012 with 9hr's in 111 games, and had a tough year last season. I think he'd be worth a shot in spring training at minimum. My preference would probably be Espinosa though.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 15, 2013 8:52:00 GMT -5
The options that are better than Brock Holt and hence worthy of being on the 40-man are dwindling. If they can't trade for Mike Aviles or Cliff Pennington, or for Zack Cozart if the Reds sign Drew, then I think you add one or wo guys as NRI's.
This hasn't seemed to me to be a well-handled off-season for the last few spots on the roster. Losing Kalish and maybe Castellanos while Morales, Wilson, and Butler (or Lavarnway) remain obvious trade candidates seems inefficient, and maybe they've waited too long on the backup SS market, too.
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