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Post by mmmrocks on Nov 30, 2013 3:32:41 GMT -5
The backup shortstop position is actually something I've thought about more than any other position. We have an opening at AAA, so we could potentially stash a John McDonald there. For the major league position, I like Alexi Casilla the most. He has the defensive prowess of a Clint Barmes, but has a bit more offensive upside and more value as a pinch runner.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 30, 2013 4:53:09 GMT -5
The backup shortstop position is actually something I've thought about more than any other position. We have an opening at AAA, so we could potentially stash a John McDonald there. For the major league position, I like Alexi Casilla the most. He has the defensive prowess of a Clint Barmes, but has a bit more offensive upside and more value as a pinch runner. Casilla has only played 3 innings of SS the last two years, after being below average in 2011. Overall, he appears to have been an average defender there, but he's been a bit below average overall in many more innings at 2B. He's played very little 3B. He definitely seems to still be a base-stealing threat. Sometime this week I'm going to cook up a a table with Steamer and Davenport projections, and my own fielding projection based on all the available sources. I'll definitely include him.
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Post by mmmrocks on Dec 2, 2013 0:30:08 GMT -5
The backup shortstop position is actually something I've thought about more than any other position. We have an opening at AAA, so we could potentially stash a John McDonald there. For the major league position, I like Alexi Casilla the most. He has the defensive prowess of a Clint Barmes, but has a bit more offensive upside and more value as a pinch runner. Casilla has only played 3 innings of SS the last two years, after being below average in 2011. Overall, he appears to have been an average defender there, but he's been a bit below average overall in many more innings at 2B. He's played very little 3B. He definitely seems to still be a base-stealing threat. Sometime this week I'm going to cook up a a table with Steamer and Davenport projections, and my own fielding projection based on all the available sources. I'll definitely include him. He's played 543 innings at shortstop (SSS, I know) and has a 3.4 UZR. There aren't many quality free agent options available, but Casilla would be one of the more versatile options. Clint Barmes has strong defensive numbers, but he's very one dimensional. He can't hit, he doesn't have value on the basepaths, and he doesn't have a lot of position versatility. It might make more sense to acquire a backup via trade. We have 6-7 major league starters (depending on if you count Workman). I'm sure the Red Sox have a better idea of what backups play good defense than I do. They have scouting departments, where as I only have small sample sizes of stats like UZR. They seemed to do pretty well with Drew despite his overall UZR numbers being poor.
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Post by jmei on Dec 2, 2013 14:40:22 GMT -5
Omar Quintanilla, non-tendered by the Mets today, is another candidate. He's been below replacement level in a pretty big MLB sample, but he's also a career .299/.368/.442 hitter in AAA (in 1579 PAs) and can play solid defense at SS and 2B/3B. He'd be a good get on a minor-league contract.
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 2, 2013 14:47:37 GMT -5
Also, Jayson Nix is a non tender candidate for the Yanks. Slightly above average defense in the infield and he does have some experience in the outfield. Below average bat, but he's shown some prowess with the bat in the minors.
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 2, 2013 19:35:46 GMT -5
Also, Jayson Nix is a non tender candidate for the Yanks. Slightly above average defense in the infield and he does have some experience in the outfield. Below average bat, but he's shown some prowess with the bat in the minors. Nix, like Quintanilla and McDonald, is definitely in the mix for a minor league contract as Pawtucket SS / non-roster invitee, but none of the trio project to be as good as Holt. I haven't finished running the numbers yet, but right now it looks like the viable candidates are Barmes, Furcal, Kawasaki, Santiago, and Carroll among the FAs and Aviles and Pennington via trade. I just don't see them going with Casilla when he has barely played SS for three years.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Dec 3, 2013 0:44:54 GMT -5
So it appears that the NY Mets have non-tendered Jordany Valdespin. He did post a dreadful 60 WRC+ this past season in a small sample of only 144 plate appearances, but he will be only 26 this upcoming season and has success as recently as last 2012 (95 WRC+ in over 200 MLB PA's and a 107 mark in 160 PA's in AAA). He has not played much short since entering the bigs, but did log as many as 146 games at short plus a further 243 at second. Could he possibly be an adequate option as our backup middle infielder? His defensive stats in the bigs are such small samples (NY played him mostly in the outfield and second) that they are almost meaningless.
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 3, 2013 10:43:23 GMT -5
So it appears that the NY Mets have non-tendered Jordany Valdespin. He did post a dreadful 60 WRC+ this past season in a small sample of only 144 plate appearances, but he will be only 26 this upcoming season and has success as recently as last 2012 (95 WRC+ in over 200 MLB PA's and a 107 mark in 160 PA's in AAA). He has not played much short since entering the bigs, but did log as many as 146 games at short plus a further 243 at second. Could he possibly be an adequate option as our backup middle infielder? His defensive stats in the bigs are such small samples (NY played him mostly in the outfield and second) that they are almost meaningless. Clay Davenport's minor league metrics have him bad at 2B (-17 in 173 games) and even worse (-15 in 112) in his limited time at SS. He's been awful in his 400 innings in the OF in MLB, so that doesn't seem to be the answer, either. Someone will give him a shot on a minor league deal, not sure if he fits on the PawSox roster.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 4, 2013 10:34:21 GMT -5
Well, I've crunched a bunch of numbers, and I think the viable MLB candidates can be reduced to four.
Cliff Pennington edges Mike Aviles as a trade option, but the difference is slight, well within the margins of error and slight enough that you'd go for whoever was costing you less.
I have Clint Barmes at 4 or 5 runs less per 150 games (and of course he'd play a lot less than that) than those two, but since he costs nothing to acquire, there's an argument for signing him. It backfires only if there's a major problem with Bogaerts or Middlebrooks, and now your backup SS is playing everyday for a long stretch.
The wild card is Rafael Furcal, for whom I only have a Steamer projection, no Davenpecota. He's the worst defender (-6 or so) and the best hitter, but it's hard to say how much of an edge he has over Aviles and Pennington. He might be the best overall option, or he might be not much better than Barmes. He'll probably be more expensive than Barmes, though, and if you need to end up playing this guy in the postseason, there's an argument for taking the guy who's 16 runs better on defense, since the opposing pitching is going to squash the counterbalancing offensive deficit.
I'd be happy with any of these guys. I wouldn't trade a substantive prospect for Pennington or Aviles when I could just sign Barmes, but if they could get either one for the equivalent of Luis Ortega, that would be great.
(Jamey Carroll, Ramon Santiago, and Munenori Kawasaki don't have enough bat to make up for the defensive edge Barmes has on them.)
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Post by elguapo on Dec 4, 2013 15:25:45 GMT -5
If we have the cash available, which seems more possible with Ellsbury departing, you'd have to think Juan Uribe looks good as a 3B/UTIL option. The Sox have not been shy in giving relatively big money to bench players.
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Post by jmei on Dec 4, 2013 15:30:52 GMT -5
If we have the cash available, which seems more possible with Ellsbury departing, you'd have to think Juan Uribe looks good as a 3B/UTIL option. The Sox have not been shy in giving relatively big money to bench players. It's an interesting idea, but that still leaves you with no backup SS, besides the remote possibility that Pedroia fills that role.
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Post by elguapo on Dec 4, 2013 15:35:27 GMT -5
If we have the cash available, which seems more possible with Ellsbury departing, you'd have to think Juan Uribe looks good as a 3B/UTIL option. The Sox have not been shy in giving relatively big money to bench players. It's an interesting idea, but that still leaves you with no backup SS, besides the remote possibility that Pedroia fills that role. Uribe hasn't played much SS lately but his excellent to phenomenal UZRs at 3b/2b suggest he'd be a competent fill-in, assuming other defensive measures agree. I want Xander playing as close to 162 as possible anyway. (However Uribe's renaissance in 2013 was as unexpected as his decline in 2011-12, which raises some real questions in both directions.) At this point I would bet on a trade for none-of-the-above - I think there are a lot of potential moving parts out there.
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Post by jmei on Dec 4, 2013 15:47:15 GMT -5
Yeah, Uribe was a pretty good defensive shortstop as recently as 2010. If Uribe doesn't attract any suitors and the Red Sox find themselves with cash to burn, I'd explore it. But if we want a starting-caliber SS/3B, I think I'd rather have Stephen Drew and his superior defense and natural platoon with Middlebrooks/Bogaerts.
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Post by curiousle on Dec 4, 2013 16:57:23 GMT -5
I wonder if this problem solves itself with Drew coming back to the Sox? (Reasonable?) Market seems to be dry for him, not unlike Salty or Bourne from last year, so what about a rotation of WMB/XMan/Drew @ short and 3rd with WMB splitting time with Carp @ First (and Napoli walks)
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 4, 2013 17:04:32 GMT -5
I wonder if this problem solves itself with Drew coming back to the Sox? (Reasonable?) Market seems to be dry for him, not unlike Salty or Bourne from last year, so what about a rotation of WMB/XMan/Drew @ short and 3rd with WMB splitting time with Carp @ First (and Napoli walks) I've been thinking about this recently and it's making more sense. But I doubt Drew would want to come back to that situation. I also would hesitate from bouncing Xander around that much.
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Post by curiousle on Dec 4, 2013 17:23:20 GMT -5
I just wonder if we're getting further away on Napoli now and I've always wondered if X sticks at short or moves to third and if we could get more value from WMB @ first....of course I said play Dan Butler and ignore the F/A market.
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Post by okin15 on Dec 4, 2013 17:36:24 GMT -5
You get less value on Middlebrooks at 1B, not more. Drew instead of Napoli is a poor plan for the offense, as you replace one of the best hitters in the line-up with one of the worst... at a time that you're already trying to make up for losing Ells and Salty.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 4, 2013 17:45:22 GMT -5
I wonder if this problem solves itself with Drew coming back to the Sox? (Reasonable?) Market seems to be dry for him, not unlike Salty or Bourne from last year, so what about a rotation of WMB/XMan/Drew @ short and 3rd with WMB splitting time with Carp @ First (and Napoli walks) I honestly think they'd rather have the draft pick than have Drew back dirt-cheap. Trading Jose Igelesias was the sign that they are committed to Bogaerts at SS. Because there's no scenario where it makes more sense to have Drew at SS at anything near market price, plus 1 1/3 years of Peavy at market price, than six cheap years of Iglesias and a draft pick. (The acquisition of Peavy was not designed to improve us in order to get us into the post-season, nor did it end up adding a single win; it was, according to the Sox own Tom Tippett, insurance against Buchholz not coming back and another pitcher being injured. That's not a move you make to downgrade yourself at SS long-term.) The market does indeed seem dry for Drew, but at some point it'll fall to the point where it's worth it for someone to give up the draft pick. And if the Yankees lose Cano, I think they'll be all over Drew, since he'd only cost them one of the two picks they'd be getting for Cano and Granderson (the other having been forfeited for Ellsbury).
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Post by mattpicard on Dec 4, 2013 17:48:38 GMT -5
Drew instead of Napoli is a poor plan for the offense, as you replace one of the best hitters in the line-up with one of the worst... Is someone suggesting Drew's bat would directly replace Napoli's? It would replace Middlebrooks', vs. RHP. Also, reconsider that thought when you compare Drew and Napoli's splits vs. righties in 2013 (and above, jmei was advocating for Drew platooning): Napoli vs. RHP in 2013: .248/.353/.464/.816, .368 BABIP Drew vs. RHP in 2013: .284/.377/.498/.876, .344 BABIP Just sayin'. I hate the hate on Drew! Now, I'm not necessarily arguing that Drew is truly a more valuable hitter in the lineup than Napoli, and Nap's career splits vs. RHPs are a little better than Drew's, but Drew is far from a scrub in the lineup. Also, this has been beaten to death on here, but Napoli's declining contact rates (z-contact in particular) + high 2013 BABIP really scare me.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 4, 2013 18:11:05 GMT -5
What is Drews market though? I have to think if he's back it's because no one is willing to give big money plus a draft pick. Might fall into the Sox hands at 2/20 or 3/25 range.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 4, 2013 20:24:22 GMT -5
Drew instead of Napoli is a poor plan for the offense, as you replace one of the best hitters in the line-up with one of the worst... Is someone suggesting Drew's bat would directly replace Napoli's? Yes, curiosle is kicking the tires on signing Drew instead of Napoli (and then presumably picking up a backup CF who hits RH, or whatever). The three obvious downsides to having Drew fill the backup SS roster spot and platooning him with Middlebrooks: one, you're bouncing Bogaerts continually between two positions, two, you're killing WMB's PT and trade value the year before you expect to trade him while hoping he becomes so great that he forces Cecchini to LF, and three, why would Drew come back here on another one-year deal, anyway? The market may collapse of him, but I don't see it happening to the degree that returning here as a platoon player would make sense. That's sheer market economics. The starting point is what he's worth less the value of the forfeited pick. As his price drops, teams are likelier to get interested, and as soon as two consider it worth doing, it's done. It will make sense for the Reds to upgrade from Cozart or the Royals from Alcides Escobar before his price comes down so far that his coming back here for a year as a platoon player would make sense. Ditto for the Dodgers with Hanley moving to 3B. And as I mentioned earlier, the Yankees are almost sure to be players if Cano goes to Seattle as rumored (and might ven be players if they re-sign him).
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Post by jmei on Dec 5, 2013 22:30:15 GMT -5
Rafael Furcal signs with the Marlins on a one-year, $3.5m deal with incentives to be their everyday second baseman.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 7, 2013 15:32:26 GMT -5
Bump, given that this is pretty much the last piece they need to get.
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 7, 2013 15:54:01 GMT -5
Wouldn't mind trade for Eric Sogard. He seems to be the odd man out with Lowrie, Donaldson, Callaspo and Punto on the 25 man roster. He's a lefty which is a plus in this case IMO. Steamer and Oliver project a 95 and 93 WRC+ for him respectively. Steamer has hi pegged for a 1.0 WAR.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 7, 2013 16:37:54 GMT -5
Wouldn't mind trade for Eric Sogard. He seems to be the odd man out with Lowrie, Donaldson, Callaspo and Punto on the 25 man roster. He's a lefty which is a plus in this case IMO. Steamer and Oliver project a 95 and 93 WRC+ for him respectively. Steamer has hi pegged for a 1.0 WAR. Interesting. I missed him because he hadn't played enough SS. His experience there is 97 games in the minors and 28 starts in the majors. His arm strength is fringy for the left side of the infield, where he'd see almost all of his action. I actually think that Callaspo is their odd man out, anyway; Sogard starts at 2B and Lowrie at SS, with the option of Punto at SS and Lowrie at 2B.
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