SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,935
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 7, 2014 9:00:14 GMT -5
The question of Vazquez vs. Swihart, to me, doesn't HAVE to have an answer. Catch Vazquez 90 games a year, Swihart 70 This could be a viable strategy in the short term, as you suggest, if Vazquez never hit at all. But he has always been regarded both by scouts and by Davenport's numbers as a guy who would be an average hitter for a catcher or maybe a tick above. Nothing elite, but nevertheless an asset hitting 8th or 9th. And if that happens, then your argument begins with "let's take the guy who might secretly be the best player in all of baseball and just play him in 90 games." It's going to be hard to continue with that argument and make it work. Admittedly, there is a workable argument where Swihart catches 40 games and plays 110 at position X, but the target for Swihart's skill set that would be required to make that work is odd and not seemingly in the cards right now. It's probably what the Nats should have done with Harper, BTW, but it requires much more offense and less defense from Swihart than he's currently projecting to have.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,830
|
Post by nomar on Sept 7, 2014 12:35:23 GMT -5
Harper already isn't the most durable guy out there at 21 and his bat is better than Swihart's. I think putting him in the outfield was a fine decision.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,830
|
Post by nomar on Oct 17, 2014 16:29:42 GMT -5
I definitely wouldn't rule out Swihart being traded. Not that it's likely, but definitely possible.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,935
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 17, 2014 17:30:30 GMT -5
I definitely wouldn't rule out Swihart being traded. Not that it's likely, but definitely possible. You don't trade Swihart until you have a better idea how good he is relative to Vazquez. And you'll have that after he's caught some in MLB and compiled some pitch-framing data. Complicating the decision on which one of the two to trade, you won't know how many teams value pitch-framing, and by how much, until you start shopping Vazquez. I'm guessing that almost all teams value it at least a little, but I have no idea how many teams would put Vazquez's skill at the 3.5+ WAR that BP's metrics indicate he has. If they had only Vazquez or Swihart but not both, either would be completely untouchable, like Betts and Bogaerts. It would be cool enough to have developed three up-the-middle guys of that caliber at essentially the same time, but to have doubled down at one of the positions is more than you would ever dare to hope for. Vazquez, who was for so long an afterthought here, is pretty obviously a potential Yadier Molina, with Pudge Rodriguez absolute ceiling. Salvador Perez should relish his repeat at GG, because (assuming that we don't trade him to the NL), Vazquez seems likely to win about the next twelve.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 18, 2014 0:07:03 GMT -5
With zero passed balls last year and similar other defensive metrics so far if not better in some ways, Swihart may actually be a better defender than Vasquez before long. He is trending up quickly. Swihart could get some PT at 3rd, 1st, 2nd or even the OF if they want. He is extremely athletic. He could DH some to give him rest and keep him healthy or they could give some PT eleswhere also.
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Oct 18, 2014 8:38:48 GMT -5
With zero passed balls last year and similar other defensive metrics so far if not better in some ways, Swihart may actually be a better defender than Vasquez before long. I guess he could, but Vasquez could be a Top 5 defensive catcher as soon as next year, with the upside being the best defensive catcher. That's a long way to climb.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,830
|
Post by nomar on Oct 18, 2014 8:58:07 GMT -5
I highly doubt Swihart can ever frame like Vazquez
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 18, 2014 9:19:55 GMT -5
With zero passed balls last year and similar other defensive metrics so far if not better in some ways, Swihart may actually be a better defender than Vasquez before long. He is trending up quickly. Swihart could get some PT at 3rd, 1st, 2nd or even the OF if they want. He is extremely athletic. He could DH some to give him rest and keep him healthy or they could give some PT eleswhere also. I brought up the idea of a position change for Swihart a few weeks back and I like the idea of moving him to 1B. IF all goes well, his readiness for full-time ML duty should coincide nicely with the end of Napoli's contract. 1B is the only place I can see moving him. The RS are loaded with OFers and are likely to acquire a 3B this winter.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 18, 2014 9:44:58 GMT -5
With zero passed balls last year and similar other defensive metrics so far if not better in some ways, Swihart may actually be a better defender than Vasquez before long. He is trending up quickly. Swihart could get some PT at 3rd, 1st, 2nd or even the OF if they want. He is extremely athletic. He could DH some to give him rest and keep him healthy or they could give some PT eleswhere also. I brought up the idea of a position change for Swihart a few weeks back and I like the idea of moving him to 1B. IF all goes well, his readiness for full-time ML duty should coincide nicely with the end of Napoli's contract. 1B is the only place I can see moving him. The RS are loaded with OFers and are likely to acquire a 3B this winter. Swihart is probably athletic enough to move anywhere. But he has most value catching and they're probably not going to move him unless he's a great MLB hitter AND Vazquez develops his bat to be an average hitter.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 18, 2014 10:03:45 GMT -5
I brought up the idea of a position change for Swihart a few weeks back and I like the idea of moving him to 1B. IF all goes well, his readiness for full-time ML duty should coincide nicely with the end of Napoli's contract. 1B is the only place I can see moving him. The RS are loaded with OFers and are likely to acquire a 3B this winter. Swihart is probably athletic enough to move anywhere. But he has most value catching and they're probably not going to move him unless he's a great MLB hitter AND Vazquez develops his bat to be an average hitter. Going with the flow, Swihart's highest value is as a catcher. The Sox would be much better off trading him or Vazquez than either moving either of them or sharing duties. Swihart's trade value as a catcher could be astronomical. None of that is happening until at least next off season so we have lots of time to speculate. It should also be noted that Swihart's value decreases for either the Sox or as a trade chip if he gets called to the majors before mid July. Imagine what a team like the Cubs would be willing to trade for either of them. The Cubs are so desperate that their current future plan is to convert Schwarber to catcher. How long before he's ready to handle a major league pitching staff no matter how well he hits ? Look at all the strong systems, Cubs, Astros, Twinkies, Pirates. None of them has a serious catcher in the wings. Only the Padres and Rangers have a catcher regarded anywhere near Swihart.
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on Oct 18, 2014 10:21:43 GMT -5
Yeah, no way they'll move Swihart to first, imo ... catchers that move to first are either not very good catchers or getting further into their careers and often both. Swihart, by all accounts, is an excellent defensive catcher.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,830
|
Post by nomar on Oct 18, 2014 10:38:41 GMT -5
I know Swihart has a good arm and blocks well, but how's his pitch framing? I never hear much about it, whereas with Vazquez you hear about it all the time.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 18, 2014 10:51:53 GMT -5
I know Swihart has a good arm and blocks well, but how's his pitch framing? I never hear much about it, whereas with Vazquez you hear about it all the time. I've read that it's above average, but there's not any data on just how good it might be.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 18, 2014 10:56:45 GMT -5
I know Swihart has a good arm and blocks well, but how's his pitch framing? I never hear much about it, whereas with Vazquez you hear about it all the time. I've read that it's above average, but there's not any data on just how good it might be. I attempted to watch for that this year but I mostly watched Portland and the Portland camera angles (no CF view) makes it impossible to even take a stab at it. On more than one occasion though I've seen positive comments on it. As jimed said, there's no data available for the minors.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Oct 18, 2014 11:37:24 GMT -5
And it has to be either or why?
Eventually Swihart catches 100-110 games and Vasquez the rest. Swihart subs at first (or third) or DH when Vasquez catches. Two lost cost fine defensive catchers. That is a great luxury.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,935
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 18, 2014 13:09:00 GMT -5
With zero passed balls last year and similar other defensive metrics so far if not better in some ways, Swihart may actually be a better defender than Vasquez before long. I guess he could, but Vasquez could be a Top 5 defensive catcher as soon as next year, with the upside being the best defensive catcher. That's a long way to climb. We have enough of a scouting consensus and MLB performance sample size to state that Vazquez is almost certainly the best defensive catcher in MLB, already (and in fact the best defender at any position). Before he was recalled there was one scouting report that dared to declare him "the best throwing catcher in pro ball, and it's not particularly close." Others were essentially equally enthusiastic. He then proceeded to be just that, in terms of results. DRS had him at +11.5 runs per 120 games; the next best mark in MLB (minimum 250 innings caught) was Rene Rivera at +8.6. His receiving got similar praise, and then he came up and ranked among the top framers, and framing data stabilizes very quickly. BP had him a tiny fraction behind Conger and Jose Molina, while Stat Corner had the same result but with a bit more of a gap between Conger and the other two. (And those two are average or below at throwing.) He's a bit below average on blocking pitches in the dirt, but that's a relatively small part of the package.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 18, 2014 13:12:00 GMT -5
(Sarasoxer post)
Because, if they turn out to be all they can be, a full time Swihart plus what you could get in a trade for Vazquez or a full time Vazquez plus what you can get in a trade for Swihart is worth more than a Swihart/Vazquez platoon no matter what you do with the other while one is catching. Both would have maximum return as full time catchers.
(ericvan post)
Until we see Swihart in the MLB, we can't know which is the better option. Like I said, nothing is likely to change until at least next off season so making a case for one or the other now is a bit pointless. I do agree though that Vazquez is impressive, especially as long as we don't go to automated pitch calling. Because of that possibility, if they are at all close, the wiser decision would be Swihart under the assumption that he's not as good a framer as Vazquez. Lots of components and we'll have a better idea at this time next year.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,830
|
Post by nomar on Oct 18, 2014 13:32:46 GMT -5
And it has to be either or why? Eventually Swihart catches 100-110 games and Vasquez the rest. Swihart subs at first (or third) or DH when Vasquez catches. Two lost cost fine defensive catchers. That is a great luxury. If we have a good 1B and DH then that won't even be necessary because he likely wouldn't outhit them unless he crushes one of lefties/righties in particular.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Oct 18, 2014 13:34:47 GMT -5
I'm not sure the prospect of computer umps is a make-or-break variable worth considering. There's no chance it happens in the next five years, and given the presence of the umpire's union, I'd be surprised if it happened in the next decade.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,830
|
Post by nomar on Oct 18, 2014 13:43:16 GMT -5
I was wondering because some people say that his defense may be close to Vazquez's eventually, but he's have to become a pretty damn good framer to come near Vazquez. Not many players in the MLB have impact defense like him.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 18, 2014 13:50:39 GMT -5
(Sarasoxer post) Because, if they turn out to be all they can be, a full time Swihart plus what you could get in a trade for Vazquez or a full time Vazquez plus what you can get in a trade for Swihart is worth more than a Swihart/Vazquez platoon no matter what you do with the other while one is catching. Both would have maximum return as full time catchers. This is the Mookie argument again. Have to trade him because he loses value moving him off his position. It's all a matter of who wants to give what up for him. It's not like selling gold for a set price.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 18, 2014 13:58:39 GMT -5
(Sarasoxer post) Because, if they turn out to be all they can be, a full time Swihart plus what you could get in a trade for Vazquez or a full time Vazquez plus what you can get in a trade for Swihart is worth more than a Swihart/Vazquez platoon no matter what you do with the other while one is catching. Both would have maximum return as full time catchers. This is the Mookie argument again. Have to trade him because he loses value moving him off his position. It's all a matter of who wants to give what up for him. It's not like selling gold for a set price. True but I'd pretty much guess that a quality cost controlled starting catcher would be the easiest commodity to trade, there are a lot of pretty bad catchers getting starts everyday. The five precious metals, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium and Starting Catchers. ticker
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 18, 2014 14:05:32 GMT -5
One of the subplots that might be brought into this, is whether the Sox will ever have another fulltime DH after Ortiz. I rather doubt it personally, in which case there will be more at bats available, though not necessarily for Vazquez/Swihart. But it does play into the roster construction. I know other posters may see it differently, but I don't think they'll try to replace Ortiz.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 18, 2014 14:09:16 GMT -5
One of the subplots that might be brought into this, is whether the Sox will ever have another fulltime DH after Ortiz. I rather doubt it personally, in which case there will be more at bats available, though not necessarily for Vazquez/Swihart. But it does play into the roster construction. I know other posters may see it differently, but I don't think they'll try to replace Ortiz. Agree with the general idea but having the off duty catcher as the DH is rather restricting.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Oct 18, 2014 14:24:37 GMT -5
One of the subplots that might be brought into this, is whether the Sox will ever have another fulltime DH after Ortiz. I rather doubt it personally, in which case there will be more at bats available, though not necessarily for Vazquez/Swihart. But it does play into the roster construction. I know other posters may see it differently, but I don't think they'll try to replace Ortiz. Agree with the general idea but having the off duty catcher as the DH is rather restricting. Not if you have a 3rd catcher, which we could have without a fulltime DH. Especially with so much positional flexibility having guys like Mookie and Holt on the team.
|
|
|