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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 9, 2014 0:43:00 GMT -5
I don't see Vasquez as elite overall. Real solid defensively but no indication the bat will be near elite level.
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 9, 2014 9:37:12 GMT -5
I don't see Vasquez as elite overall. Real solid defensively but no indication the bat will be near elite level. Looks like a better hitter than Lavarnway was.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 9, 2014 9:43:05 GMT -5
I don't see Vasquez as elite overall. Real solid defensively but no indication the bat will be near elite level. Looks like a better hitter than Lavarnway was. This thread turned into a slow-pitch softball game.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 9, 2014 11:21:50 GMT -5
I think they're both starting catchers. It's a good problem to have, but at some point it will be just that, a problem. Decisions will have to be made... At some point.I'm in favor of kicking that can for as long as possible. Unless the Red Sox have a really good idea that one of these guys is highly overvalued right now, they might as well wait as long as possible to get the best picture of what both of these players are going to be before they make any decision, especially since there's scenarios where it makes sense to keep both.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 9, 2014 13:55:51 GMT -5
Everyone is welcome to their opinion. I don't see Vasquez as anywhere near an elite bat. Feel free to extrapolate his 68 mlb PA to whatever conclusion you want to reach. To me he will be lucky to put up average MLB numbers for a catcher, and admittedly that bar is very low. Not hating the kid. I hope he is Johhny Bench and Yadier Molina in triplicate. It's just the numbers do not indicate beyond an average bat at best. He had a .340 BAPIP to put up the numbers he did this year in AAA, which was one of his highest BAPIP ever. At least he is trending up, which is a big factor.
Edit: Why are we even worried about which one is better? We should keep both of these guys. We will need them. And at some point the data sample and scouting will be extensive enough to probably give a clear picture of the situation, and if that changes over time then fine. If they play well they start. If they don't they don't. Easy problem to solve.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 9, 2014 14:10:57 GMT -5
What's interesting about Swihart is that he doesn't trouble adjusting to a new level. In fact, his OPS has improved each of the last two years, a period time in which he's jumped three levels.
2012 with Greenville - .702 2013 with Salem - .794 2014 with Portland/Pawtucket .834.
Most of the improvement has been in slugging, which has gone .395, .428, .486. The OBP improved a ton from 2012 to 2013 before dropping back a bit this year: .307, .366, .348.
If he turns out to be an .800 to .830 OPS guy, I wouldn't mind seeing him get a shot at 1B. His readiness for the big leagues should coincide nicely with the end of Napoli's contract, which runs through next year. Vas could catch the majority of the games, with Swihart taking about 30 (all 30 of those coming against RHP) while getting most of his time at 1B.
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Post by saysbill on Aug 9, 2014 15:02:00 GMT -5
In the scenario you suggested, with Vazquez catching most of the games and Swihart playing most of his time at another position, do you think that he has the athleticism to play OF (LF)? I ask because I see Craig sliding over to 1B after Napoli is gone because he will 31-32 and has had injury issues with his feet. It might make most sense to put him there and maybe take less toll on his body while being able to benefit from Swihart's bat and athleticism in the OF. That OPS that you suggested would play up in LF too, right?
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Post by bulldougy on Aug 9, 2014 15:45:41 GMT -5
Swihart played some shortstop in high school. That doesn't mean he'll be able to do that as a pro but may show he does have the athleticism to play some other position.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Aug 9, 2014 16:24:53 GMT -5
I don't see Vasquez as elite overall. Real solid defensively but no indication the bat will be near elite level. A couple things on this. First, I don't think anyone is/was ever expecting Vazquez to be elite with the bat. Secondly, because he provides elite value defensively (he is much more than "real solid", see Eric's posts and/or the Fangraphs piece on his incredible defensive value), his floor is considerably higher and his bat doesn't matter as much as if he was merely average defensively. You could just be watching the games and seeing how truly incredible he is behind the dish. I am a huge Vazquez believer. I think barring injury he will go down as one of the great catchers to play this game. Call me crazy if you want, but I see his bat progressing as well to an above average level (for a catcher, at least). That makes him truly elite. I'm probably biased since I just love watching the way the guy approaches and plays the game. His energy level (and defense and arm) is top notch. I like Swihart too. Good problems to have for the Red Sox front office.
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Post by zil on Aug 9, 2014 17:06:55 GMT -5
Catcher is the position where you need the most days off anyway. It's not a problem if they wind up splitting time until we figure out which one to keep and which one to deal.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 9, 2014 17:35:14 GMT -5
One possibility that hasn't been mentioned is that given his athleticism and emerging bat Swihart could also learn 3rd base. He has the arm, the quickness and gamer attitude. He could play 110 games at 3rd when Vazquez is catching and the rest of the time be the backup catcher. Holt becomes what he is, the super ute, Mookie eventually takes over RF with JBJ in center.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 10, 2014 17:10:19 GMT -5
It's not like one has to stay and one has to go.
In a couple years we could have a rotating DH. We don't know what the finished product with either will be.
And as far as Vazquez's offense goes, it looks fine to me. Yadi looked awful for years, nobody thought he'd make it where he has with his bat. Catchers' bats develop much slower than other players. Vazquez K/BB is impressive and his frame suggests he'll have average pop at least. I'd give him plenty at time to adjust. He most likely isn't the next Yadi, but he is and will be an asset to any team.
If you have to choose between the two, I think Vazquez would be undervalued by other teams, whereas Swihart wouldn't be. Take that as you will. We shouldn't feel pressured to have to choose one anytime soon.
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Post by SoxInTx on Aug 10, 2014 18:16:48 GMT -5
It's not like one has to stay and one has to go. In a couple years we could have a rotating DH. We don't know what the finished product with either will be. And as far as Vazquez's offense goes, it looks fine to me. Yadi looked awful for years, nobody thought he'd make it where he has with his bat. Catchers' bats develop much slower than other players. Vazquez K/BB is impressive and his frame suggests he'll have average pop at least. I'd give him plenty at time to adjust. He most likely isn't the next Yadi, but he is and will be an asset to any team. If you have to choose between the two, I think Vazquez would be undervalued by other teams, whereas Swihart wouldn't be. Take that as you will. We shouldn't feel pressured to have to choose one anytime soon. I agree with this here. I think Vazquez will be a light hitting version of Y. Molina and I think that would be good enough and Ortiz can't play forever so at some point RS will need a new DH and I could see Swihart take that role when Vazquez is behind dish.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Aug 10, 2014 19:13:11 GMT -5
Catcher is the position where you need the most days off anyway. It's not a problem if they wind up splitting time until we figure out which one to keep and which one to deal. If they both pan out, why EVER trade either of them unless you get a ridiculously kingly ransom for one of them? Play 'em both 80 games a season and save both of their careers. Or if Swihart becomes an even more elite hitter than currently envisioned and Vazquez is an elite+ catcher defensively, play Vazquez there more and give Swihart a complementary position in a platoon somewhere (1B or 3B maybe?) If you could save both their bodies by sharing the defensive load more equitably than is usually done, maybe the catching can be super-covered for a LONG time.
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Post by michael on Aug 11, 2014 11:20:05 GMT -5
I'm not predicting but I see Sweihart as a Victor Martinez type hitter WITH real defensive skills. Vasquez as a Molina adopted son, defensively. There is no condition under which these guys are an either/or choices. As suggested above let CV catch all but 2 days a week and have BS (aren't those unfornate initials) DH/1st unless he's catching. NUFF' SED ?
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Post by suttree on Aug 11, 2014 15:37:29 GMT -5
I would hold onto both. Swihart is the star and Vazquez is a very capable backup. Vazquez might be good enough to stick as a regular somewhere but in a selfish way it makes more sense to pay him 500-600K for a few years as a backup. When he hits arbitration we reevaluate, but trading for another 4th or 5th starter type does not sound very appealing.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 11, 2014 15:39:26 GMT -5
It probably won't be long until Vazquez is getting treated like JBJ for putting up a 60 wRC+.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 12, 2014 5:35:57 GMT -5
I would hold onto both. Swihart is the star and Vazquez is a very capable backup. Vazquez might be good enough to stick as a regular somewhere but in a selfish way it makes more sense to pay him 500-600K for a few years as a backup. When he hits arbitration we reevaluate, but trading for another 4th or 5th starter type does not sound very appealing. PECOTA predicts Vazquez, as of now, to be about 0.4 WAR offensively over a full season, including position adjustment. The best throwing catchers are in the range of 0.4 - 0.6 WAR for limiting stolen bases in an ordinary year. Toss in a bit for making tough plays around the plate and that's a 1.0 WAR player, which is indeed a backup. But he's framing pitches so far at a 3.5 WAR rate. And this is a skill that's very evident to the eye; if you're watching for it, in its own perverse way watching CV steal third strikes is as exciting as watching JBJ run down fly balls. 4.5 WAR last year would make you the 35th most valuable player in MLB. I don't know about you, but that guy can start on my team. He may be the best defensive player in baseball, in the sense of being in the discussion with Simmons (and, again, that is something that scouts would endorse, too, at least the ones who understand how valuable "receiving" can be). Since we have little idea how good Vazquez's bat will play in the long run, ditto for Swihart, and even less idea about Swihart's pitch framing, there is no way of saying right now whether we'll want to trade Swihart, trade Vazquez, or keep Vazquez as the starting catcher and Swihart as the starter elsewhere + backup catcher (which works if his bat is great but pitch-framing is subpar). I'm amused that people want to offer their guesses now, but that's all they really are.
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Post by suttree on Aug 12, 2014 12:19:16 GMT -5
I would hold onto both. Swihart is the star and Vazquez is a very capable backup. Vazquez might be good enough to stick as a regular somewhere but in a selfish way it makes more sense to pay him 500-600K for a few years as a backup. When he hits arbitration we reevaluate, but trading for another 4th or 5th starter type does not sound very appealing. PECOTA predicts Vazquez, as of now, to be about 0.4 WAR offensively over a full season, including position adjustment. The best throwing catchers are in the range of 0.4 - 0.6 WAR for limiting stolen bases in an ordinary year. Toss in a bit for making tough plays around the plate and that's a 1.0 WAR player, which is indeed a backup. But he's framing pitches so far at a 3.5 WAR rate. And this is a skill that's very evident to the eye; if you're watching for it, in its own perverse way watching CV steal third strikes is as exciting as watching JBJ run down fly balls. 4.5 WAR last year would make you the 35th most valuable player in MLB. I don't know about you, but that guy can start on my team. He may be the best defensive player in baseball, in the sense of being in the discussion with Simmons (and, again, that is something that scouts would endorse, too, at least the ones who understand how valuable "receiving" can be). Since we have little idea how good Vazquez's bat will play in the long run, ditto for Swihart, and even less idea about Swihart's pitch framing, there is no way of saying right now whether we'll want to trade Swihart, trade Vazquez, or keep Vazquez as the starting catcher and Swihart as the starter elsewhere + backup catcher (which works if his bat is great but pitch-framing is subpar). I'm amused that people want to offer their guesses now, but that's all they really are. Projecting 20 games into a full season is something I would never do in any serious discussion. Since you mentioned Simmons, his defensive value has swung wildly between the past two years. One of many examples why defensive value cannot be counted on based off of small samples. I like Swihart because he has a well-rounded skillset. If a player were a stock portfolio, you would want to diversify. Generally the best players in the game are not the best at anything but really good at a lot of things. Regardless, there is a reason Swihart is a top prospect and Vazquez is not.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 12, 2014 12:25:47 GMT -5
Catchers have way more chances to affect every game. A shortstop might not get opportunities to make an above average play. I bet there is a lot less variance in catchers.
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Post by jmei on Aug 12, 2014 12:52:45 GMT -5
Projecting 20 games into a full season is something I would never do in any serious discussion. Since you mentioned Simmons, his defensive value has swung wildly between the past two years. One of many examples why defensive value cannot be counted on based off of small samples. I like Swihart because he has a well-rounded skillset. If a player were a stock portfolio, you would want to diversify. Generally the best players in the game are not the best at anything but really good at a lot of things. Regardless, there is a reason Swihart is a top prospect and Vazquez is not. Vazquez's elite defense is well-established, though, including what may be the best arm in the league and pitch-framing skill that is widely lauded and fairly self-evident. You can quibble somewhat with the exact magnitude of his defensive value, but it should be clear that he adds a ton of it. ADD: I should also mention that offensive statistics vary just as wildly as defensive ones (see, e.g. Wil Myers). Indeed, because of the high number of chances, pitch-framing skill almost certainly stabilizes more quickly than defensive stats at other positions or even offensive production. So while there are still large error bars involved, it seems likely that Vazquez has a good chance of at least being a Ryan Hanigan-esque second-division starter. As for the well-rounded bit-- of course the best players in the league are great at everything-- that's why they're the best players in the league. However, it is not at all clear that you'd prefer a catcher who grades as a 60 all-around guy over a 75 defender with a 45 bat. I think Vazquez has been grossly underrated by the prospect-watching community, largely because elite catcher defense is more difficult to quantify and value. Maybe Swihart ends up the better player (and I probably think he does), but I think it'll at least be a lot closer than you suggest here.
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Post by suttree on Aug 12, 2014 13:37:24 GMT -5
Projecting 20 games into a full season is something I would never do in any serious discussion. Since you mentioned Simmons, his defensive value has swung wildly between the past two years. One of many examples why defensive value cannot be counted on based off of small samples. I like Swihart because he has a well-rounded skillset. If a player were a stock portfolio, you would want to diversify. Generally the best players in the game are not the best at anything but really good at a lot of things. Regardless, there is a reason Swihart is a top prospect and Vazquez is not. As for the well-rounded bit-- of course the best players in the league are great at everything-- that's why they're the best players in the league. However, it is not at all clear that you'd prefer a catcher who grades as a 60 all-around guy over a 75 defender with a 45 bat. I think Vazquez has been grossly underrated by the prospect-watching community, largely because elite catcher defense is more difficult to quantify and value. Maybe Swihart ends up the better player (and I probably think he does), but I think it'll at least be a lot closer than you suggest here. My point exactly. It's very hard to know what Vazquez's pitch framing is actually worth. We can agree it is very good, but it's pretty early both in terms of sample and the way framing is currently quantified, to be jumping to conclusions about value. The difference between 1 WAR and 3 WAR is not quibbling. That is the difference between starters and backups, regulars and all-stars, etc. Front offices and scouts have access to the same types of analytics we do, and typically ones that are much better. I don't think Vazquez is the victim of some market failure, as much as he is valued according to the level of uncertainty surrounding him.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Aug 12, 2014 15:18:13 GMT -5
Actually, in the days of pitchfx, I think pitch framing is one of the few defensive stats that's pretty empirical. One guy gets more strikes called outside the zone than another guy. Not much ambiguity to that ... as opposed to things like JBJ's defensive worth, which I find much less rigorous at this point.
But it's also completely unknowable at the minor league level, so it makes it hard to gauge the relative worth of Swihart to Vazquez. Maybe Swihart is close to equal to Vazquez as a receiver ... who knows? He looks good back there. But Vazquez is elite, so the odds are against it.
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Post by suttree on Aug 12, 2014 15:51:58 GMT -5
Actually, in the days of pitchfx, I think pitch framing is one of the few defensive stats that's pretty empirical. One guy gets more strikes called outside the zone than another guy. Not much ambiguity to that ... as opposed to things like JBJ's defensive worth, which I find much less rigorous at this point. But it's also completely unknowable at the minor league level, so it makes it hard to gauge the relative worth of Swihart to Vazquez. Maybe Swihart is close to equal to Vazquez as a receiver ... who knows? He looks good back there. But Vazquez is elite, so the odds are against it. There are other variables to consider than just where the pitch ends up. The umpires obviously play a huge role, and how often the pitcher misses his location influences the call. You need a pretty big sample to iron out those variables, and because most of the pitches caught come from a small number of pitchers, there will always be a reverse-causality concern (good pitchers get good calls/bad pitchers don't, etc.). It's far more complex and prone to uncertainty than you might think.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 12, 2014 16:57:47 GMT -5
Bottom line to me is, if Swihart hits well enough to provide 'plus' offense at DH/LF/1B for 50-90 games a year, you keep him and Vazquez. If he's only a good enough hitter to be a catcher (think AJP when he was doing decent this year, but inexplicably played DH as well), maybe you have to choose.
I think Swihart hits enough and Ortiz is done enough by 2016 that you keep both, and they give you more combined value over replacement, than keeping one and hoping that whatever you get in return is a plus bat.
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