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Potential Free Agent Starter for Next Year?
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Post by remember04 on Oct 27, 2012 7:20:35 GMT -5
Jackson/Kuroda are excellent supplementary targets, but this team needs an infusion of top end talent on the level of what Darvish would have provided if he were acquired last offseason. Greinke, Josh Johnson....those are the type of top end acquisitions this team needs to start the offseason, then add the secondary pieces like a Jackson after that. I'll keep stumping for it as long as it makes sense, you grab the only ace on the market and sign Greinke, which allows you to keep your trade assets for the harder acquisition (middle of the order hitter). I don't want to turn this into a discussion of what an ace is but I view Johnson and Greinke as just below that. They have had periods where they were an ace but next year and in the years after I don't see that. There are also certain ~sigh~ intangibles that a pitcher can have that can increase their value to a staff beyond just their stuff on the mound. I think of a slightly diminished Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling for examples. I don't think either one of those two has those intangibles. I would be in favor of a Greinke signing or Johnson trade if the cost was right however I don't see that happening and we get out of either of them going forward I don't see as being worth what it would take. Johnson might be more available than some might think right now as I think the Marlins might want to trade him before any value he has is gone but Greinke seems to be the Angels number one goal this off season so I see him right now as unattainable. Think of Jorge Soler where the Cubs said get your best offer and come back and we'll top it.
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Post by raftsox on Oct 27, 2012 9:43:37 GMT -5
Something I've been thinking about recently with regards to the pitching staff is the lack of "leadership" within the rotation. I know that's a nebulous thing, but I think back to when the team was good and there was always a starter that "lead" the staff. It seems that during the last few years we've lacked that; everyone has hoped that Lester or Beckett could be that person, but I don't think they're able to do it. A leader doesn't need to be the best pitcher on the staff, but they need to be good enough to control the situations, to be someone that the rest of the staff respects and will listen to. I don't see that acquisition happenning soon, so hopefully a coach or Farrell can somehow be that outside leadership, a la an actual manager in the business sense.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 27, 2012 11:03:39 GMT -5
It sure looks like a few other potential starters will be on the market. I'm talking about Haren and Santana. There are some I really don't see us being a fit or going after (for different reasons).
Greinke is going to sign for 5 to 6 years at a per year cost that will be unreasonable.
Kuroda will almost certainly re-sign with the Yankees.
Kyle Lohse, although I like him, is looking for 3 or more years, and will probably get it. At his age, I don't see the Sox going there.
Edwin Jackson is a Boras client and will be over-payed.
We NEED, at least, one starter.....and I'd rather not trade any of our TOP prospects for him. I personally like Marcum, McCarthy, and Dan Haren for a 2 year contract. Scared somewhat of guys like Santana and Liranio....but they do have good arms.
I love the kids we have coming that could be ready by 2014, and I do not want to impede their opportunity.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 27, 2012 11:29:16 GMT -5
I'm not as desperate as others about finding another starter. Lester and Buchholz admittedly had off-seasons. There is nothing wrong with them physically. It appears that their mechanics or thought processes gor screwed up. With a new regime and their familiarity with Farrell, their problems can be corrected.
Lackey, according to reports, was throwing 95 mph in his Ft. Myers rehab and is rested and ready to go. Doubront has the benefit of a complete ML season and was effective at the end of the 2012 season.
That leaves the fifth spot. I like the way Morales threw for the Sox when he was placed in the rotation and before his injury. He deserves a chance.
And Rubby has already played in 14 mMLgames, having started 13 for the Dodgers in 2011. His TJ sidelined him this year. But, according to reports, he is good to go. I'd like to see what we have in Morales and DeLa Rosa before committing funds and/or prospects to land another starter who may not be any better than what we now have.
If this is a "bridge" year, why not let the kids play? If they're lacking, or the Sox surprisingly find themselves in a playoff hunt at the trade deadline, then explore available veteran starters at that time.
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Post by remember04 on Oct 27, 2012 11:55:32 GMT -5
Something I've been thinking about recently with regards to the pitching staff is the lack of "leadership" within the rotation. I know that's a nebulous thing, but I think back to when the team was good and there was always a starter that "lead" the staff. It seems that during the last few years we've lacked that; everyone has hoped that Lester or Beckett could be that person, but I don't think they're able to do it. A leader doesn't need to be the best pitcher on the staff, but they need to be good enough to control the situations, to be someone that the rest of the staff respects and will listen to. I don't see that acquisition happenning soon, so hopefully a coach or Farrell can somehow be that outside leadership, a la an actual manager in the business sense. That's one of the reasons I wanted Halladay back when he may or may not have been available. I expected him to age well and even once things started to fade I thought he'd still have value that didn't show up in the box scores.
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Post by fan on Oct 27, 2012 12:31:38 GMT -5
A sports writer friend of mine , emailed me, saying, do to RHP. Kyle Lohse's age (34), Scott Boras is talking 2 years, at around 28M. Since Yankee's Cashman may be interested, the RS are lurking also. Will be a long winter !
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Post by mainesox on Oct 27, 2012 12:56:52 GMT -5
It sure looks like a few other potential starters will be on the market. I'm talking about Haren and Santana. There are some I really don't see us being a fit or going after (for different reasons)... We NEED, at least, one starter.....and I'd rather not trade any of our TOP prospects for him. I personally like Marcum, McCarthy, and Dan Haren for a 2 year contract. Scared somewhat of guys like Santana and Liranio....but they do have good arms. I like the idea of Anibal Sanchez. I think he could be had for something like 4/60, which would only have him under control through his age 33 season, and he is an easily above average pitcher. He's not quite on Greinke's level, but he will take half as much (probably in years, and dollars) to sign, and the gap between the two isn't that big. He's also probably a safer bet than Haren given how last year went for Haren, and he's better than guys like Marcum, Santana, or Liriano.
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Post by sdsoxfan on Oct 27, 2012 20:22:56 GMT -5
Need ace to contend. Want Ben to make bold move for experienced guy who as been #1 in past.
Peavy/Haren could be available for 2 years at $12-15m per.
Ben traded for Beckett in 2005, Theo traded for Schilling in 2003, Duquette for Pedro in 1997.
Sox have not developed an ace since Clemens in 1985/86.
Felix/Johnson/Lincecum all have different level of cost in prospects and $$. Look what Gonzalez trade did for Nationals this year.
Hope Ben dares to be great if a reasonable opportunity to get a potential #1 presents itself.
Slotting Peavy/Haren/Johnson into #1 takes pressure off Lester/Buch and gives rotation a chance to be top 10 rotation with Farrell in charge.
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 27, 2012 20:51:59 GMT -5
So, you're saying Peavey and Haren are aces, but Lester and Buchholz are not? I'm not convinced any of the 4 are AL East aces. Also not convinced that is required to at least be in hte AL wild card picture.
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Post by mredsox89 on Oct 28, 2012 1:23:16 GMT -5
Last 5 years WAR, just for comparison's sake.
Peavy: 14.5 (2.9 avg) Haren: 24.9 (4.98 avg) Johnson: 19.5 (3.9 avg) Lohse: 10.7 (2.14 avg) Sanchez: 3 year average at 4.00 Greinke: 25.4 (5.08 avg)
Lester: 24.3 (4.86 avg)
I think people are vastly underrating Lester based off a shaky last 1.5 years in which the entire staff was god awful and the team wasn't competitive. Is he on the same level as Felix, Sabathia Lee, and Halladay? Not right now, but he's also younger than all but Hernandez. But to say some of these guys are supposed "aces" and just throw Lester out of the conversation is poor.
Buchholz is another story. Clay has one very good year and five other ok seasons. At this point, he's a good middle of the rotation starter at low cost with a very high ceiling.
They need another SP, and have the $ to get one. But the team isn't doomed if they don't get one of those 5 or so "aces", especially when they do in fact have a guy who is in the top 10 overall pitchers in the last 5 years.
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Post by jmei on Oct 28, 2012 8:37:21 GMT -5
Ah yes, the yearly "Lester is not an ace" debate.
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Post by buffs4444 on Oct 28, 2012 9:11:44 GMT -5
People allow too much subjective influence into their categorization of "what is an Ace?", IMHO. Far easier to go with "front of the rotation starter" and avoid the tangents that always come into play with the term "Ace".
As far as team construction this year and the near future, do we need another front of the rotation starter? Unless you're convinced Buchholz is one, and even his most ardent supporters have a shaky time with that argument, this is an easy answer. Need for front of the rotation starter: Yes.
Given that, what is the current cost of a front of the rotation starter? Hamels was more of a special case since he was a lefty and Philly was desperate to keep him from returning to the left coast, so lets go with Cain. Front of the rotation starter current cost: 6/$126m.
The rest from there is easy. Do we have the available resources to shop for a front of the rotation starter? Yes. Is there one available in free agency? Yes.
Done deal: Greinke 6/$126M. Very few free agents are "worth" their contracts, at least as far as statistical measures (WAR, etc) are concerned. Given his durability, performance, and ages covered by a 6-year deal, I'd say he's likely to come closer than most.
And FWIW, Lester is also in the category of front of the rotation starter and, after a year with Farrell, he'll render any discussion otherwise moot. That's a nice two headed monster to top your rotation with for the next few years, especially with the talent/potential coming up through the organization.
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Post by rsnationiowa on Oct 28, 2012 10:24:46 GMT -5
Farrell was around for possibly the best years of Lester and Buch, so I am hoping he can help them get back to the top of their game. If so, Lester is very much an ace and Buch a very nice #2. A healthy Lackey is also a good #3. Felix will be in the rotation, and I fully expect Farrell to help his progression into a very good ML starter. He will be a very good #4. Obviously everyone would like to see a front end guy come in, but I don't see it happening.
In listening to Farrell on WEEI the other day, it is clear that he is very fond of Aceves. Do the Sox roll the dice and let Aceves and Morales fight it out for the last spot? Is Tazawa a possibility?
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 28, 2012 10:54:23 GMT -5
Farrell was around for possibly the best years of Lester and Buch, so I am hoping he can help them get back to the top of their game. If so, Lester is very much an ace and Buch a very nice #2. A healthy Lackey is also a good #3. Felix will be in the rotation, and I fully expect Farrell to help his progression into a very good ML starter. He will be a very good #4. Obviously everyone would like to see a front end guy come in, but I don't see it happening. In listening to Farrell on WEEI the other day, it is clear that he is very fond of Aceves. Do the Sox roll the dice and let Aceves and Morales fight it out for the last spot? Is Tazawa a possibility? Don't count out Rubby. As for Tazawa, while he was initially signed as a starter, he hasn't played in that capacity for almost two years. Following TJ, he was eased back by taking a relief role. He has excelled in that area as witnessed by his performance at the big league level last year. I can't see him returning to a starting role for this club.
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Post by sdsoxfan on Oct 28, 2012 16:05:28 GMT -5
Supreme Court Justice Stewart defined pornography as "I know it when I see it."
Stats don't define ace. Lester has stuff to be an ace but not the confidence and swagger to deliver with season riding on his shoulder. He lost game 7 against Rays in 2008 and game 1 against Angels in 2009 (first loss after 9 straight wins against Halos) setting stage for Sox getting swept.
In 2011, when Beckett didn't step up to stop slide, Lester went 1-5 with ERA over 5.
He also lost to Detroit as opening day starter. Yankees never won with Pettitte as #1, but he was exceptional as a #2/3.
Don't ask Lester to fill a role he is uncomfortable with.
It is another level of pressure to be #1 or to close. I didn't say Peavy or Haren are aces - simply that they have been #1's before and could potentially assume that role for Sox while at same time taking some pressure off Lester and Buch.
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Post by buffs4444 on Oct 28, 2012 16:54:35 GMT -5
FWIW, Haren's velocity has been off a lot recently. Not sure if something else is going on, but it's a red flag, especially with the question marks in our rotation already.
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Post by sdsoxfan on Oct 28, 2012 19:05:16 GMT -5
Only Greinke is relative sure thing,but you have to pay $20-25m over 5-6 years and he hasn't proven yet that he can deliver elite stats in Boston.
I'd rather trade you young stud or give pillow contract 1-2 years to Peavy or Haren. Then if they excel in Boston Sox could extend for longer term.
Wish we had extended Beltre and Martinez who both excelled with Sox rather than pay ransom for Lackey, Crawford and Gonzalez that threatened to hamstring us financially for years.
Don't think Ben will pay max contract to Greinke.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 28, 2012 19:23:03 GMT -5
Supreme Court Justice Stewart defined pornography as "I know it when I see it." Stats don't define ace. Lester has stuff to be an ace but not the confidence and swagger to deliver with season riding on his shoulder. He lost game 7 against Rays in 2008 and game 1 against Angels in 2009 (first loss after 9 straight wins against Halos) setting stage for Sox getting swept. In 2011, when Beckett didn't step up to stop slide, Lester went 1-5 with ERA over 5. quote] I agree with your premise - Jon Lester clearly isn't an ace, but he's been one in the past. I see the examples you gave, but then I'll give you other examples. In 2007 Jon Lester became the 2nd BoSox pitcher in our lifetime to claim that they were the winning pitcher in the World Series clinching game. In the 2008 ALDS, the Angels would have sworn he was an ace as he beat them in Game 1 and had a lead in Game 4 before Masterson sqandered the lead (before Lowrie's series winning single in the 9th). If the ALDS had an MVP of the Series (an award it currently doesn't have), I'm sure Lester would have gotten it. And in Game 7 of the ALCS, Jon Lester pitched very well - 3 runs in 7 innings - the Sox didn't hit Matt Garza and missed an 8th inning opportunity against the bullpen. By 2009, it looked like Lester was headed toward Verlander or Price territory where it was just a matter of time before he won the Cy Young - but he went the other way and at this point his best hope is that Farrell can figure out what he was doing wrong. If he doesn't, the Sox will be pretty bad in 2013, too. The Red Sox best hope for an ace is that De La Rosa develops as hoped - getting Pedro Martinez to work with him might help him immensely in my opinion, but of course this is far from a guarantee. The other option is one I don't agree with - try to sign Zack Greinke. He'll cost about six years and around $140 - $150 million. I wouldn't want the Sox to gamble on his makeup and how he fits the Sox' environment. I'd rather the Sox sit on that money and wait for King Felix (or David Price) to become a free agent.
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Post by mainesox on Oct 28, 2012 19:23:04 GMT -5
Wish we had extended Beltre and Martinez I'd rather have Barnes, Owens, Swihart, and Bradley.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 29, 2012 7:31:39 GMT -5
Supreme Court Justice Stewart defined pornography as "I know it when I see it." Stats don't define ace. Lester has stuff to be an ace but not the confidence and swagger to deliver with season riding on his shoulder. He lost game 7 against Rays in 2008 and game 1 against Angels in 2009 (first loss after 9 straight wins against Halos) setting stage for Sox getting swept. In 2011, when Beckett didn't step up to stop slide, Lester went 1-5 with ERA over 5. He also lost to Detroit as opening day starter. Yankees never won with Pettitte as #1, but he was exceptional as a #2/3. Don't ask Lester to fill a role he is uncomfortable with. It is another level of pressure to be #1 or to close. I didn't say Peavy or Haren are aces - simply that they have been #1's before and could potentially assume that role for Sox while at same time taking some pressure off Lester and Buch. "Stats don't define an ace, single game sample sizes of stats define an ace"
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 29, 2012 8:25:56 GMT -5
OK.......the season is over. Congrats Giants!!!!
NOW we can get down to business boys and girls!!
I'm sure Ben has a "short" list for guys he would like to target. In just 5 days ALL free agents can sign. We definitely need to find, at least, a #3 starter.
Go Ben Go!!!
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Post by wildcardwillie on Oct 29, 2012 13:44:08 GMT -5
any pitcher that we dont have to get into a bidding war would be a great thing. you have to have depth i would rather see a trade on someone like a lincecum buy low hes had more good years than bad
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Post by pedroiayouk1520 on Oct 29, 2012 13:56:29 GMT -5
I'd simply look a signing 2 starting pitchers to 1-2 year deals . Lohse, Peavy, Haren, Kuroda, McCarthy and others may be available to short-term deals. The last thing the Sox should be doing is signing someone like Greinke or Sanchez to a long-term deal at high salaries. Remember what kinda mess we got into when we handcuffed the flexibility of the rotation by giving big deals to Beckett, Lackey, AND Matsuzaka. I'd prefer to start the year with 3 young starters (Lester/Buchholz/Doubront) and 2-3 proven starters on short contracts (Lackey/Free agents). Keep Morales/Aceves in the pen for spot start depth and stash the prospects in the minors until they are ready.
You can enter then season with depth or without it. Plus, the Sox will be nowhere near the luxury tax threshold for the next 2 years.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 29, 2012 14:00:41 GMT -5
While watching the Series, I was wondering what everyone thought of Anibal Sanchez's performance. Several of you have written about offering him something like 3 years for $40-$45 million. Do you all feel he is worth that much?
Not sure I do, but would love to hear comments.
He would certainly sit at the #3 slot pretty well. Durable? Consistent?
I'm more of a fan of signing Brandon McCarthy for 2 years at less dollars, but maybe a good argument could persuade me.
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Post by remember04 on Oct 29, 2012 15:11:04 GMT -5
Am I the only one here worried about McCarthy taking a liner off the noggin?
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