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Possible extension for Lester
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Aug 2, 2014 9:31:03 GMT -5
Copied from the game thread. “Any time you negotiate with a team and it doesn’t go the way everyone wants it, there’s always a little bit of disappointment, but that’s not to say the effort wasn’t there on both sides to get something done. But my time in Boston will be something I always remember and cherish, from 2002 to yesterday. I’ve got nothing but great things to say about the organization, the way they treated me, treated my family through the good times and bad times. We’ll see where that relationship goes later on, but right now I’m an A and I’m going to go out and perform for these guys and do the best I can to bring the championship here.” - Jon Lester Hopefully this ends the "they blew it by offending him with a lowball offer" crap. Lester and his agents have done a masterful job winning the PR over the Red Sox. The above message reads to me like a "Dear John" letter from Lester to the Red Sox as it is pretty clear that the Red Sox weren't wiling to commit the dollars and years it would take to sign Lester. I don't foresee that changing in the offseason as Lester will likely get offers north of 5 years and $125 million from one or more teams.
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Post by bjb406 on Aug 2, 2014 11:37:16 GMT -5
I don't see why people are so pessimistic about the chances he comes back. We know he prefers Boston to somewhere he has never been, Oakland wont be able to afford him, we have more than enough money to throw at him. This isn't like with Jacoby, where signing him made like no sense with Bradley on the team. I think he ends up signing for like 5/120 or something.
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Post by britalb on Aug 2, 2014 12:06:41 GMT -5
I don't see why people are so pessimistic about the chances he comes back. We know he prefers Boston to somewhere he has never been, Oakland wont be able to afford him, we have more than enough money to throw at him. This isn't like with Jacoby, where signing him made like no sense with Bradley on the team. I think he ends up signing for like 5/120 or something. This. Actually, I've a suspicion the Sox worked out approximate terms before the trade. They're building a team with a good shot at doing well next season, assuming they can find an ace. If things seemed as uncertain as the media is reporting, don't you think they would have traded for prospects? Or at the very least, for MLB players with more years of control? As I and many others have noted, the A's are a safe partner for Lester, as they can't afford him next year. To get starting pitching that can thrive in the AL East, you have to overpay, either in prospects or cash. With the new CBA, top prospects are worth even more than they used to be. The Sox are not adverse to handing out generous contracts to talent they believe in. Why does everyone assume they'd overpay for anyone but Lester? That's not to say, of course, that they won't try to trade their Rule 5 guys for someone interesting. But I doubt they'll dump their best prospects to get an ace. If I were Sox management, I'd take a perverse pleasure out of letting the media carry the message to other GMs that Lester is too risky, letting talking heads rile up the fan base with talk of how cheap we were, only to sign Lester to a reasonable market rate.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 2, 2014 12:20:47 GMT -5
I also think the Yankees will go for Scherzer instead of Lester... I don't think they get both considering the CC and Tanaka debacles. That still leaves us competing with the LA teams and Detroit but I think we can field a competitive offer, and if not we can get Shields and maybe trade for someone.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 2, 2014 12:22:15 GMT -5
I don't see why people are so pessimistic about the chances he comes back. We know he prefers Boston to somewhere he has never been, Oakland wont be able to afford him, we have more than enough money to throw at him. This isn't like with Jacoby, where signing him made like no sense with Bradley on the team. I think he ends up signing for like 5/120 or something. This. Actually, I've a suspicion the Sox worked out approximate terms before the trade. They're building a team with a good shot at doing well next season, assuming they can find an ace. If things seemed as uncertain as the media is reporting, don't you think they would have traded for prospects? Or at the very least, for MLB players with more years of control? As I and many others have noted, the A's are a safe partner for Lester, as they can't afford him next year. To get starting pitching that can thrive in the AL East, you have to overpay, either in prospects or cash. With the new CBA, top prospects are worth even more than they used to be. The Sox are not adverse to handing out generous contracts to talent they believe in. Why does everyone assume they'd overpay for anyone but Lester? That's not to say, of course, that they won't try to trade their Rule 5 guys for someone interesting. But I doubt they'll dump their best prospects to get an ace. If I were Sox management, I'd take a perverse pleasure out of letting the media carry the message to other GMs that Lester is too risky, letting talking heads rile up the fan base with talk of how cheap we were, only to sign Lester to a reasonable market rate. I believe Ellsbury was quoted at some point that he wanted to stay in Boston. Just after the 2013, Gammo had a piece where he claimed he had talked to Ellsbury's parents, siblings and wife and they all agreed "Boston is the best place for him." Maybe Ells was genuine too, but having met several pro athletes over the years as well as coaches and managers, most - not all - but most measure themselves against their peers or certain peers not by their stats but by how much they make. Remember Pedro saying he wanted "one more dollar than Curt Schilling"? I know Lester seems like a different cat, but for any of us in our jobs, if someone approached you and offered you a job for 40% or more than any other employer at a point where you only have 4-6 more years left in your carreer, and you knew that job included the same benefits as all the other offers - if not more - and that all it required was moving to another city where you can live in any style you like and working with other people, some of whom you already know, oh, and you only have to live that city for 6 or 7 months a year, well, I most of us would think pretty long and hard, too. Hell, I hate the Yankees as much as anyone here, but if they offered me $154M I'd get their logo tattooed on my forehead. Then again, I guess I'm a little easy cause I'd even do it for $150M.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 2, 2014 12:50:57 GMT -5
When he signed for a little below market with the Sox, Schilling said he already had made more money than he ever could spend. I guess there is a lesson there, but it's not a good one.
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 2, 2014 12:56:39 GMT -5
I don't see why people are so pessimistic about the chances he comes back. We know he prefers Boston to somewhere he has never been, Oakland wont be able to afford him, we have more than enough money to throw at him. This isn't like with Jacoby, where signing him made like no sense with Bradley on the team. I think he ends up signing for like 5/120 or something. Bingo. My thoughts.
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Post by britalb on Aug 2, 2014 13:17:27 GMT -5
This. Actually, I've a suspicion the Sox worked out approximate terms before the trade. They're building a team with a good shot at doing well next season, assuming they can find an ace. If things seemed as uncertain as the media is reporting, don't you think they would have traded for prospects? Or at the very least, for MLB players with more years of control? As I and many others have noted, the A's are a safe partner for Lester, as they can't afford him next year. To get starting pitching that can thrive in the AL East, you have to overpay, either in prospects or cash. With the new CBA, top prospects are worth even more than they used to be. The Sox are not adverse to handing out generous contracts to talent they believe in. Why does everyone assume they'd overpay for anyone but Lester? That's not to say, of course, that they won't try to trade their Rule 5 guys for someone interesting. But I doubt they'll dump their best prospects to get an ace. If I were Sox management, I'd take a perverse pleasure out of letting the media carry the message to other GMs that Lester is too risky, letting talking heads rile up the fan base with talk of how cheap we were, only to sign Lester to a reasonable market rate. I believe Ellsbury was quoted at some point that he wanted to stay in Boston. Just after the 2013, Gammo had a piece where he claimed he had talked to Ellsbury's parents, siblings and wife and they all agreed "Boston is the best place for him." Maybe Ells was genuine too, but having met several pro athletes over the years as well as coaches and managers, most - not all - but most measure themselves against their peers or certain peers not by their stats but by how much they make. Remember Pedro saying he wanted "one more dollar than Curt Schilling"? I know Lester seems like a different cat, but for any of us in our jobs, if someone approached you and offered you a job for 40% or more than any other employer at a point where you only have 4-6 more years left in your carreer, and you knew that job included the same benefits as all the other offers - if not more - and that all it required was moving to another city where you can live in any style you like and working with other people, some of whom you already know, oh, and you only have to live that city for 6 or 7 months a year, well, I most of us would think pretty long and hard, too. Hell, I hate the Yankees as much as anyone here, but if they offered me $154M I'd get their logo tattooed on my forehead. Then again, I guess I'm a little easy cause I'd even do it for $150M. I just think this notion the Sox won't spend is overblown. But you're right - if Lester winds up with a deal as bad as Ellsbury's, all bets are off. Still, the Sox are trading like a team that wants to win next year. This makes sense, with the clock running out on Ortiz, Victorino, Cespedes, and (assuming they sign him) Uehara - but only if they can sign an ace who can cut it in the AL East. As their recent contracts with starting pitchers prove, that's a rare commodity. Lester makes the most sense, and all the griping about fiscal responsibility might only motivate them further.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 2, 2014 14:17:49 GMT -5
Pete Abraham ?@peteabe 40m Asked Pedroia about Lester, a long-time teammate, being traded. “Think we could be teammates again,” he said. “Wouldn't be surprised." Soooooooooooo?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 2, 2014 14:19:45 GMT -5
Pete Abraham ?@peteabe 40m Asked Pedroia about Lester, a long-time teammate, being traded. “Think we could be teammates again,” he said. “Wouldn't be surprised." Soooooooooooo? I don't know. I just can't see Pedroia in a Yankees uniform.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 2, 2014 14:21:30 GMT -5
Joe McDonald ?@espnjoeymac 57m A few Red Sox players this morning said they're convinced Jon Lester will re-sign with Boston in the offseason.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 2, 2014 14:22:40 GMT -5
Joe McDonald ?@espnjoeymac 57m A few Red Sox players this morning said they're convinced Jon Lester will re-sign with Boston in the offseason. WInk wink deal
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 2, 2014 14:54:50 GMT -5
If they wanted to sign him, they would have signed him. They will assign a value to him and not go beyond it. It's the Redsox way. If it wasn't we'd be watching Abreu play every night. They apparently were not even close on Tanaka. And if anyone could project both guys it should have been the Redsox.
Now we are potentially looking at extending Cespedes for a lot more than Abreu got.
Edit: It's not impossible for Lester to come back but it's not likely either.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Aug 2, 2014 15:04:37 GMT -5
If they wanted to sign him, they would have signed him. They will assign a value to him and not go beyond it. It's the Redsox way. If it wasn't we'd be watching Abreu play every night. They apparently were not even close on Tanaka. And if anyone could project both guys it should have been the Redsox. Now we are potentially looking at extending Cespedes for a lot more than Abreu got. Edit: It's not impossible for Lester to come back but it's not likely either. They were extremely close on Abreu, and it was blind bidding. I'm guessing they would've gone over the White Sox offer if they had known what it was. Are you upset that we didn't get Tanaka? I'm extremely happy. The Yankees are going to pay a ton of money for like 2 years of Tanaka. He might not be the same pitcher, or the league might adjust to him too
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Post by britalb on Aug 2, 2014 15:06:06 GMT -5
If they wanted to sign him, they would have signed him. They will assign a value to him and not go beyond it. It's the Redsox way. If it wasn't we'd be watching Abreu play every night. They apparently were not even close on Tanaka. And if anyone could project both guys it should have been the Redsox. Now we are potentially looking at extending Cespedes for a lot more than Abreu got. Edit: It's not impossible for Lester to come back but it's not likely either. When it became clear they had to wait until the offseason, trading him made sense. Sure, the comp pick might have decreased the market a tiny bit, but not much. This way they get a pick, and the offense they needed. They traded Lester to a great team that is World Series bound, sent Gomes along to keep him company, and have a better chance than anyone to resign him. Listen to the interviews on WEEI, particularly with Farrell. There's mutual trust and admiration. If he and Miller are signed, they'll return to a Sox team with better preseason odds than 2013. It should be a fun ride.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 2, 2014 15:47:33 GMT -5
If they wanted to sign him, they would have signed him. They will assign a value to him and not go beyond it. It's the Redsox way. If it wasn't we'd be watching Abreu play every night. They apparently were not even close on Tanaka. And if anyone could project both guys it should have been the Redsox. Now we are potentially looking at extending Cespedes for a lot more than Abreu got. Edit: It's not impossible for Lester to come back but it's not likely either. They were extremely close on Abreu, and it was blind bidding. I'm guessing they would've gone over the White Sox offer if they had known what it was. Are you upset that we didn't get Tanaka? I'm extremely happy. The Yankees are going to pay a ton of money for like 2 years of Tanaka. He might not be the same pitcher, or the league might adjust to him too Latin players aren't subject to blind bidding. This isn't the Japanese posting system we're talking about. Offers can and do get shopped - just as with other free agents. The Red Sox knew what they were up against and simply drew the line short of what the White Sox were willing to pay. Our loss.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 2, 2014 20:48:13 GMT -5
I don't see why people are so pessimistic about the chances he comes back. We know he prefers Boston to somewhere he has never been, Oakland wont be able to afford him, we have more than enough money to throw at him. This isn't like with Jacoby, where signing him made like no sense with Bradley on the team. I think he ends up signing for like 5/120 or something. Bingo. My thoughts. There's no way the Yankees or somebody doesn't offer Lester a 7 year deal. Somebody will do it. Lester is going to get to free agency and see what offers are on the table. I believe he'll see a seven year $170 million offer and if that is indeed the case 5 years and $120 million won't cut it and I don't see the Sox going six years at an annual value of $25 million/year, so I think he isn't coming back. I'm hoping that I'm very wrong about this. It's encouraging to hear the Sox players openly and outwardly saying that something will get done, because the Sox desperately need him. And if they did sign him, that would make me happy that the Sox got Cespedes, because to me, with the Sox farm system about a year or so away from overloading with players from almost all positions and pitchers, they needed a young power hitting corner OF who's near major league ready and a young up and coming ace like pitcher (I had hopes of Josh Bell and Dylan Bundy coming the Sox way for Lackey and Lester), because those are the only thing this farm system lacks, and I felt the Sox missed their chance to get them with the trade chips that they had. But if Lester returns then the Sox are in much better shape for 2015. Certainly a much better alternative than trading prospects for Cole Hamels (or Matt Latos), as I'd rather see those chips saved for Stanton or signing a veteran like James Shields (while forfeiting a draft pick) or dealing for Cliff Lee, who would now be off the table now that he's injured. I've got my fingers crossed.
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Post by jmei on Aug 2, 2014 23:01:34 GMT -5
They were extremely close on Abreu, and it was blind bidding. I'm guessing they would've gone over the White Sox offer if they had known what it was. Are you upset that we didn't get Tanaka? I'm extremely happy. The Yankees are going to pay a ton of money for like 2 years of Tanaka. He might not be the same pitcher, or the league might adjust to him too Latin players aren't subject to blind bidding. This isn't the Japanese posting system we're talking about. Offers can and do get shopped - just as with other free agents. The Red Sox knew what they were up against and simply drew the line short of what the White Sox were willing to pay. Our loss. There were reports that Abreu was a blind bid situation: hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/10/05/report-marlins-all-in-on-signing-jose-abreu/
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 3, 2014 8:38:53 GMT -5
Will resigning Lester or Miller or both cost draft picks if offered arbitration? I heard (can't recall where) that Lester's contract has a provision similar to that of Cespedes.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 3, 2014 8:56:30 GMT -5
No, no draft picks for either.
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Post by godot on Aug 3, 2014 10:11:44 GMT -5
Absence makes the heart grow fonder. Maybe some of you guys do not get, but JH calls the shots now. He can be a cold, analytic hedge fund type thinker , but he can also be realistic and knows the value of emotion and "intangibles". We shall see how he works out Lester's leaving and his decision.
I am not the biggest fan of the analytic form of thought and formulas used in economic and hedge funds. They by design are models, often divorced from reality (and assuming outdated models of human nature and society) , but somehow are suppose to predict reality (not explain). Many in contemporary economics and the social sciences are moving away from or modifying this approach, thankfully. Many on the board seem to parrot James without really understanding his thinking and methodology, but that's another story.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Aug 3, 2014 10:38:49 GMT -5
I believe all these "winks and nods" when I see the Red Sox are willing to commit 5 or 6 years and $125 to $150 million to sign Lester this offseason. Anything less is not going to convince him to sign with the Red Sox.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 3, 2014 11:41:55 GMT -5
One thing that nobody is mentioning but that could be a real barrier to Jon returning is that he's likely to want a no-trade clause and the RS - with rare exceptions - do not give those. MLB players get no-trade protection when they have five CONSECUTIVE years with their team and 10 years in the bigs. Jon's run with the Red Sox has been broken, which means he'd have to wait five additional years for his NTP to kick in again - unless he negotiates something.
If he's coming back to Boston because it's where his heart is, I can't imagine he's going to want to leave himself open to being shipped out again. And who could blame him?
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Post by chavopepe2 on Aug 3, 2014 12:18:24 GMT -5
One thing that nobody is mentioning but that could be a real barrier to Jon returning is that he's likely to want a no-trade clause and the RS - with rare exceptions - do not give those. MLB players get no-trade protection when they have five CONSECUTIVE years with their team and 10 years in the bigs. Jon's run with the Red Sox has been broken, which means he'd have to wait five additional years for his NTP to kick in again - unless he negotiates something. If he's coming back to Boston because it's where his heart is, I can't imagine he's going to want to leave himself open to being shipped out again. And who could blame him? Welcome to the community tearsin04. This is a good point regarding Lester having lost his 10-5 rights with this trade. I would think the Red Sox would make an exception and give him a no trade clause given the unique circumstances should he resign.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 3, 2014 12:24:26 GMT -5
They gave one to Pedroia and gave "trade approval" to Varitek (because signing any new contract with language that said "no trade" would've triggered a no trade in Manny's contract), so they have done it.
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