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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 23, 2014 20:01:43 GMT -5
Does anyone else here loathe "extension" talks & rumors as much as me? I wish they were all "proactive" and behind the scenes like Pedey's-- unlike Papi's & Lester's. So much speculation & conjecture, and they tend to drag on forever with endless reading of the tea leaves. A lot of wasted energy and needless distraction if you ask me. Maybe its just me... LOL, in the story they are already talking delays. The delays are hype, a deal is unlikely to happen until after the season starts because anything before that would affect his 2014 AAV. Same situation with Petey last year. It's nothing underhanded, it's what both sides negotiated and agreed to in the last two CBAs.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 23, 2014 21:12:29 GMT -5
I don't see how Lester will extend for less than 5 years and $110 mil. The Yankees just gave effectively $175 mil over 7 years for Tanaka. Lester is a least a proven commodity and he has also been a proven playoff guy who has been durable. All those things are valuable. If he makes it to FA he probably gets close to $140 mil ( assuming he has another year like the last one ). When a player has a solid year like Ortiz just had or Scherzer you start hearing a lot about how they want an extention. How much they love playing in boston...etc. Sometimes it is just better to see how they do and either take the pick or do a deal then. I'm in that mode with Lester unless he gives some hometown discount. We could be in the same mode with Peavy. We may end up with 2 picks before it is done. Did you not read the tweets? He said he was willing to give a hometown discount. That's exactly what he said he's prepared to do. Tanaka was essentially on the free market, he has no place in this conversation. Let's see if what he considers is a hometown discount is a discount to us. Schilling gave us a hometown discount once and was on the DL within weeks. Lester is saying all the right things now and then again, don't they always say the right things? Damon said all the right things. How did that work out? Lester will be on the free market in a year unless we extend him. What he might get on the free market is relevant. I think the market has changed so much that you guys are underestimating Lester's marketability. Then again, most of you did the same thing with Tanaka also until the week before he signed. As in off by $50 mil.
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Post by grandsalami on Jan 23, 2014 21:14:07 GMT -5
Did you not read the tweets? He said he was willing to give a hometown discount. That's exactly what he said he's prepared to do. Tanaka was essentially on the free market, he has no place in this conversation. Let's see if what he considers is a hometown discount is a discount to us. Schilling gave us a hometown discount once and was on the DL within weeks. Lester is saying all the right things now and then again, don't they always say the right things? Damon said all the right things. How did that work out? Lester will be on the free market in a year unless we extend him. What he might get on the free market is relevant. I think the market has changed so much that you guys are underestimating Lester's marketability. Then again, most of you did the same thing with Tanaka also until the week before he signed. As in off by $50 mil. you are not getting it…. Lester is like pedroia, both of whom are willing to take massive (open market wise) discounts to stay with the sox….. If Pedroia was on the open market right now what would he be getting?
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Post by ray88h66 on Jan 23, 2014 21:22:44 GMT -5
Did you lose a bet Lavanrnwayguy? I see a change in your avatar.
I disagree with most of your posts but admire you for sticking around no matter what crap you get.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 23, 2014 23:57:00 GMT -5
Did you lose a bet Lavanrnwayguy? I see a change in your avatar. I disagree with most of your posts but admire you for sticking around no matter what crap you get. When the Yanks signed Tanaka, posts were flying fast and furious with everyone. People were having fun so I said "The Empire Strikes Back" and then said "I'm on my way to Dagobah now!". I then changed my Avatar from Yoda to Ross but no one either got it or thought it was funny anyway. Ross is my new disguise. I'm actually in hiding in Dagobah! I was all over stopping the Yanks from emerging again. I think it's too late now. But the baseball will be better. It's always great to have a worthy opponent. It's the Carlos Castenada in me!
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 23, 2014 23:59:09 GMT -5
grandsalami: [/quote]you are not getting it…. Lester is like pedroia, both of whom are willing to take massive (open market wise) discounts to stay with the sox….. If Pedroia was on the open market right now what would he be getting?[/quote]
Lester might be like Pedroia or he might not be. What is the sample size on that data? You may be right or you may be wrong....
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 24, 2014 0:29:22 GMT -5
I think Lester will sign. I get what Lavarnway is saying but it's not like the Sox are going to give him a 4 year $70 million deal and tell him here's the discount contract. I doubt it will be the $/year that they'll haggle over, but more the length of contract. My guess is the Sox and Lester will find a happy medium and it will be either five or six years rather than seven. My guess is 5 years $105 million with an option in year six. It's pretty obvious Lester really wants to stay. If he didn't he wouldn't have went as far out on the limb as he did. He just wants the Sox to be reasonably fair and the Sox want him and they won't screw him. There's definitely a deal here to be had. What's nice is that the Red Sox will have 3 Red Sox-for-life players in Ortiz, Pedroia, and Lester should he sign - guys you identify as Red Sox. That's a good thing - guys who WANT to be Red Sox for their careers. Let's hope Xander feels that way down the road. Maybe Tek can advise him how to have Boras to get the Sox to bid against themselves for his services. That would be cool.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 24, 2014 0:50:20 GMT -5
...It's the Carlos Castenada in me! Pass the jimson weed....
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 24, 2014 4:32:01 GMT -5
I think it would be cool to bring back Lester. I like having some players with us for their entire careers and I think it's in the team's interest also. But it usually ends up costing the team more to do that when they are near the end of their careers. For example Lowell. Players are popular sometimes and they don't want to move their families and everyone starts singing a Kumbaya song and we end up overpaying them to keep them under contract. This happens particularly when a team wins a World Series. The players self esteem gets tied up with the team success also. Their sense of belonging. Often it's a good thing and is what helps breed future success. What establishes heritage. But sometimes it's the Jeter situation also where they still pay the guy a lot even when they know he's no longer worth it.
You could make a point that we have gotten hometown discounts from Pedroia, Ortiz and Lester in the past and I'm willing to overpay a little now but it's sometimes not a good business decision except for the good will value, but that is significant in itself. We grow attached to these players. They are family.
As with any family though, disagreements can happen over money. And maybe Lester is not confident he can put up another year like the last one, because if he doesn't, he loses millions. It's smart business for guys like him and Ortiz, both big World Series heros, to want capture the moment. His negotiating position may never be higher.
It looks like Norm is searching for his worthy opponent right now out there in the desert!
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jan 24, 2014 9:43:20 GMT -5
I doubt it will be the $/year that they'll haggle over, but more the length of contract. My guess is the Sox and Lester will find a happy medium and it will be either five or six years rather than seven. My guess is 5 years $105 million with an option in year six. These seems about right to me ... but there may be some kind of vesting option on IPs or something like that to tack on another year or two at a good salary, something to give Lester some upside in the contract but protect the team if his health starts to go south. Although Lester's been remarkably durable. He's not been consistent with his results, but the guy has taken the ball pretty much every fifth day for years now. I'd be very surprised if this doesn't get done at a rate that's friendly to the team but sets up Lester and his descendants for quite some time.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 24, 2014 9:48:56 GMT -5
One important note from last night, and only because it's been discussed here. Lester's offseason home is in Atlanta, not Washington State area. So any talk about being closer to home is irrelevant. He even said his kids and wife call Boston home and before you chalk that up to athletes speak, he took this discussion to a whole new level. Vesting options for any 6th year and beyond makes sense. Seems like it should get done fairly easily and it's a necessity for Boston.
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Post by jimoh on Jan 24, 2014 11:07:18 GMT -5
I would get a copy of Pedroia's contract and a red pen, change a few words and dates, and send it over to him
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Post by rjp313jr on Jan 24, 2014 12:06:05 GMT -5
Pedeys contract is too many years and too few dollars per year for Lester. As much as we want to compare Pedey to Cano he's not that type of guy.
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Post by elguapo on Jan 24, 2014 12:38:47 GMT -5
you are not getting it…. Lester is like pedroia, both of whom are willing to take massive (open market wise) discounts to stay with the sox….. If Pedroia was on the open market right now what would he be getting? Pedroia was not on the open market, wasn't close to being on the open market when he signed his extension, and the general consensus on SP when he signed the extension was that it was a fair deal for both sides. One of the reasons Lester is likely to sign for less than a free agent deal is that the Red Sox assumes the risk that Lester is injured or declines in 2014. Quantify that risk and add it to the actual extension and you get a lot closer, if not equal to, his free agent value. Yes, home town discounts exist, players are people, et cetera, but risk avoidance is a huge part of the equation.
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Post by grandsalami on Feb 16, 2014 19:50:57 GMT -5
paul hoynes ?@hoynsie 5m Heard Reds getting close to 6-year deal in $100 million range with Homer Bailey. Bound to influence Indians talks with Justin Masterson.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 16, 2014 21:15:54 GMT -5
paul hoynes ?@hoynsie 5m Heard Reds getting close to 6-year deal in $100 million range with Homer Bailey. Bound to influence Indians talks with Justin Masterson. I keep seeing this point. Beyond the Box Score has been tweeting about it for the last couple hours. And with all due respect to our own, awesome Alex Skillin (who is a contributor there), their points are misleading, nearly to the point of being intentionally so. Comparing their stats over the past three seasons ignores the fact that it's 2011 that gives Masterson the advantage - Bailey has been significantly better since the start of 2012, which is when he put himself together. Bailey is also over a year younger, and has better pure stuff. The comparison is wrong. Furthermore, I'm not sure one deal actually influences others in this way. Individual contracts don't set the market, the market sets the individual contracts, if that makes sense. Dustin Pedroia taking an under-market deal didn't change how much Cano got, because the market for Robinson Cano was the same.
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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 17, 2014 14:58:43 GMT -5
Maureen Mullen ?@maureenamullen 2 min. Jon Lester, if he would still take hometown discount: "I'm not going to go back on what I said."
Maureen Mullen ?@maureenamullen 55 sec. Lester, on finishing career in BOS: I want to stay here. This is all I've known. I don't deal well with change.
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Post by buffs4444 on Feb 17, 2014 16:46:22 GMT -5
paul hoynes ?@hoynsie 5m Heard Reds getting close to 6-year deal in $100 million range with Homer Bailey. Bound to influence Indians Red Sox talks with Justin Masterson next winter. fixed...
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 17, 2014 18:44:24 GMT -5
If the number for Lester is 5-110 that's $22m annually. If they signed him early, before first game, I'm assuming they'd take the 13m owed this year and for taxes it would be $20.5. Is this right? Is his tax number 13m this year because it's an option? If so it only adds 7.5m and they just opened up 13m so they still saved 5.5m. Is saving 1.5m tin tax calculation money the least bit important over the next 5 years?
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 17, 2014 18:48:34 GMT -5
If the number for Lester is 5-110 that's $22m annually. If they signed him early, before first game, I'm assuming they'd take the 13m owed this year and for taxes it would be $20.5. Is this right? Is his tax number 13m this year because it's an option? If so it only adds 7.5m and they just opened up 13m so they still saved 5.5m. Is saving 1.5m tin tax calculation money the least bit important over the next 5 years? If it's an extension starting in '15, he would count for $22m in '15.
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Post by grandsalami on Feb 17, 2014 18:54:41 GMT -5
Also if you are expecting any announcement, expect one after the start of the season, like they did with a-gon and JB, (for lux tax reasons)
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Post by elguapo on Feb 18, 2014 8:50:31 GMT -5
Also if you are expecting any announcement, expect one after the start of the season, like they did with a-gon and JB, (for lux tax reasons) The point is that if we have lots of unused cap space this season, they could take the hit this season while they have the space, and reduce the AAV in future years.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 18, 2014 14:01:27 GMT -5
Thanks guapo, I thought that was clear in my post but really didn't feel like going back and forth. It was a question on logistics and if my calculations were right. Only 1.5m in savings isn't significant but if you are going to have unused spa this year then why wouldn't you take any savings in the future you could get?
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Post by grandsalami on Mar 1, 2014 19:19:50 GMT -5
Nick Cafardo ?@nickcafardo 30s The Red Sox and Jon Lester 's agents have already engaged in at least two conversations concerning an extension for the lefty
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 2, 2014 14:39:47 GMT -5
Curios, what is everyone "high water mark" for an extension? The point you wouldn't go beyond? I realize it could be different based on years, but let's use 5 and 6 year contracts as I think it's unrealistic to think he signs for 4 or that the team goes 7.
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