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2014 Official Spring Training Thread
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Feb 15, 2014 20:38:03 GMT -5
What's are the odds on AJ getting his first Fenway HR vs inciting a dustup with the MFYs?
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Post by highcheeseandtaters on Feb 15, 2014 20:51:07 GMT -5
I think the last thing we would want is 30+ starts from all 5... if we make it into the playoffs it may be via play-in game, or wild card. With the exception of Lester, I think the staff would be gassed. Bucholz has not proven to be durable enough to carry that load, I just want him to stay healthy, and 200+ innings seems remote for a guy with his injury profile and build. Peavy, he's another I'd be concerned about with respect to how much he has left in the tank. I cant see him making 30 starts and being effective down the stretch or playoffs. It will be interesting to see how they use Dempster (provided he's not packaged and sent off at some point) as well as Workman, Webster, et al. Of interest to me, who (if anyone) makes the biggest strides and forces their way into the rotation or pen from Pawtucket, or from Portland to Pawtucket. But in that scenario, it's a close enough race that the Red Sox aren't going to fool around with spot-starting guys in order to set the staff up for a playoff run. They only way they'd start giving guys extra days off is if they're up fifteen games in mid-august. The reality is that, as long as the Red Sox are in any kind of race, healthy and effective pitchers are going to make all their starts as scheduled. And I don't see any problem with that. It certainly wasn't a problem for Lester or Lackey last year. You completely missed my point... and I didn't so much as insinuate the Sox would or should "spot-start" guys in the middle of a pennant race.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 15, 2014 20:57:02 GMT -5
LOL, I thought it was an eclectic reference to the Cardinals. LOL2, There's no Tagalog version of that show.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Feb 15, 2014 22:04:28 GMT -5
But in that scenario, it's a close enough race that the Red Sox aren't going to fool around with spot-starting guys in order to set the staff up for a playoff run. They only way they'd start giving guys extra days off is if they're up fifteen games in mid-august. The reality is that, as long as the Red Sox are in any kind of race, healthy and effective pitchers are going to make all their starts as scheduled. And I don't see any problem with that. It certainly wasn't a problem for Lester or Lackey last year. You completely missed my point... and I didn't so much as insinuate the Sox would or should "spot-start" guys in the middle of a pennant race. You lost me at "the last thing we would want is 30 starts from all five". That's the last thing? I think you are forgetting basically every other scenario. Getting thirty starts from all five guys means they didn't get hurt and were pitching effectively. Actively rooting against such a lucky outcome due to fear of some cumulative effect come October is really misguided. You want your best pitchers to stay healthy and pitching effectively, not resting/injured/skipped/demoted.
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Post by grandsalami on Feb 15, 2014 22:24:36 GMT -5
Alex Speier ?@alexspeier 2m Andrew Miller and the Red Sox have settled their arbitration case. Miller to make just over $1.9M in 2014
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,968
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Post by jimoh on Feb 16, 2014 7:56:01 GMT -5
Lou Merloni ?@loumerloni 19h Day 1. Not much going on as pitchers reported but didn't exactly do anything. Infielders worked out all morning with Butterfield.
Lou Merloni ?@loumerloni 19h I was impressed with Cecchini. He looked a lot more athletic than the talk about him. Moved his feet well. Good arm. Long arm action
Lou Merloni ?@loumerloni 19h Devin Marrero can pick it. Smooth. No Iggy comparisons. Not fair. But looked good.
Lou Merloni ?@loumerloni 19h ... Saw Lavarnway today at 1B. Oh boy, fighting it with his glove. He's got a lot of work to do
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 16, 2014 9:13:52 GMT -5
But in that scenario, it's a close enough race that the Red Sox aren't going to fool around with spot-starting guys in order to set the staff up for a playoff run. They only way they'd start giving guys extra days off is if they're up fifteen games in mid-august. The reality is that, as long as the Red Sox are in any kind of race, healthy and effective pitchers are going to make all their starts as scheduled. And I don't see any problem with that. It certainly wasn't a problem for Lester or Lackey last year. You completely missed my point... and I didn't so much as insinuate the Sox would or should "spot-start" guys in the middle of a pennant race. So what exactly is your point, and what would you like to see happen with the Sox starters?
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Post by highcheeseandtaters on Feb 16, 2014 10:33:20 GMT -5
You completely missed my point... and I didn't so much as insinuate the Sox would or should "spot-start" guys in the middle of a pennant race. So what exactly is your point, and what would you like to see happen with the Sox starters? My point: Outside of Lester, this is what the rest of the rotation has provided by way of innings pitched & GS since 2010: Lackey: 2010: 215 IP/33 GS 2011: 160/28 2012: --------------- 2013: 189/29Bucholz: 2010: 173 IP/33 GS 2011: 82/14 2012: 189/29 2013: 108/16Peavy: 2010: 107 IP/17 GS 2011: 111/18 2012: 219/32 2013: 144/23Doubront: 2012: 161 IP/29 GS 2013: 162/27(2010 & '11: combined 35 IP at ML level) A couple things I was looking at when I originally posted: I didn't think it was realistic or preferrable that each of the starting 5 get the ball 32 times. This has more to do with innings pitched than starts however. I assumed if each pitcher made 32 starts, the IP would be approaching 180-200 innings per man. I bolded the 2013 stats above for emphasis. In order-- Lackey- a beast in the playoffs last season, and had a strong regular season. 2 seasons removed from surgery, and having pitched 189 innings plus 2 rounds of playoffs and WS-- and at age 35, is it wise for him to pitch 189-200+ innings? Bucholz- Only 30, his only 2 complete seasons seem to be followed by injury-marred ones. Is he physically durable and big enuf to carry that load, consistently? Since his ceiling to date is 189 IP, are you confident if he met or exceeded that number in 2014, that by playoff time he'd still have enuf left for playoffs? And if true to form, 2015 would be a down year. Peavy-Will turn 33 during season, 2010 & '11 were injury years, he rebounded with 219 IP in '12, and managed 144 IP in split duty with us and white sox last season. He faded a bit down the stretch, though he made big starts and didnt stink the joint out, he looked gassed when we got to the playoffs. And that was following a RS with fewer than 150 IP. Doubront- young, age 26, not sure if the 160 innings were a Sox imposed IP threshold, or coincidental. Seeing he's pulled a Lackey and decided to show up in shape, I'd expect them to take the governor off this season on the IP. But how much higher will they let him go? Or will they turn him loose? Assuming all remained healthy (and that's a big assumption) I just dont see some of these guys being able to carry the full load, and without supplementing the rotation along the way, I can see the bullpen having to pick-up the slack in a pennant race, and being over-taxed by the playoffs. We have Dempster, Workman, possibly Webster and whomever else you wanna throw in there from AAA who could lengthen our starting 5 via building in rest, reducing starts. The by-product is seeing what we have with this depth, getting them meaningful work at the major league level. Its a long season and though you do have to make the playoffs to worry about your rotation having to perform, I think we give ourselves a better chance with these guys pitching realistic innings rather than career highs.
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Post by highcheeseandtaters on Feb 16, 2014 10:52:52 GMT -5
So much for Dempster picking up the slack...
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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 16, 2014 14:02:18 GMT -5
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 16, 2014 14:36:03 GMT -5
You completely missed my point... and I didn't so much as insinuate the Sox would or should "spot-start" guys in the middle of a pennant race.We have Dempster, Workman, possibly Webster and whomever else you wanna throw in there from AAA who could lengthen our starting 5 via building in rest, reducing starts. The by-product is seeing what we have with this depth, getting them meaningful work at the major league level. Its a long season and though you do have to make the playoffs to worry about your rotation having to perform, I think we give ourselves a better chance with these guys pitching realistic innings rather than career highs. I'm not sure what you think I meant when I said "sport start", but what I actually meant is exactly what you're describing.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 16, 2014 15:46:16 GMT -5
Alex Speier ?@alexspeier 26m
Steven Wright underwent surgery in late-January to repair a hernia. He's expected to be out until sometime in May.
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Post by iakovos11 on Feb 16, 2014 15:49:36 GMT -5
Too bad. I hope he's ready to go in May, because if he can keep pitching like he did in the 2nd half of last year, he could get a chance to really help the Sox this year with Dempster removed from the depth picture.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Feb 16, 2014 15:55:49 GMT -5
That likely puts either Workman or RDLR back in the starting 5 for Pawtucket to start the season.
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Post by highcheeseandtaters on Feb 16, 2014 17:48:03 GMT -5
You completely missed my point... and I didn't so much as insinuate the Sox would or should "spot-start" guys in the middle of a pennant race.We have Dempster, Workman, possibly Webster and whomever else you wanna throw in there from AAA who could lengthen our starting 5 via building in rest, reducing starts. The by-product is seeing what we have with this depth, getting them meaningful work at the major league level. Its a long season and though you do have to make the playoffs to worry about your rotation having to perform, I think we give ourselves a better chance with these guys pitching realistic innings rather than career highs. I'm not sure what you think I meant when I said "sport start", but what I actually meant is exactly what you're describing. I guess I didn't consider games played in April, May, June, and before all star break "the middle of a pennant race." And I don't see all those guys being healthy the entire season so its probably moot. I still stand by my assertion if healthy, you cant expect the starting 5 to hold-up and each throw 180-200+ effective innings each. You cant whip EVERY horse around the track and expect to have anything left in the end. just my own .02 worth. You seem to disagree.
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Post by jmei on Feb 16, 2014 18:09:37 GMT -5
Games before the All-Star Break count just as much as games after it, and in the AL East, it's rare that one team will run away with it like the Red Sox did last year.
I also think you're taking some of these pitching analogies (the idea that pitchers can't "hold up," "wear down," etc.) too literally. The reason pitchers don't pitch a full season's worth of innings every year is rarely because their arms get too tired because they've pitched too many innings. (That happened to Doubront last year, but it's the exception and typically only takes place with young pitchers yet to establish a routine.)
Instead, pitchers miss starts because there's a small chance that a guy develops an acute injury every time he throws a pitch, because pitching is terrible for your body. It's not like these guys have 160 innings that you can distribute exactly the way you want to. Sometimes you can do everything "right," and a guy still gets injured (see, e.g., the Joba rules or what happened to Strasburg). Skipping a few starts early in the season is no guarantee that Peavy or Buchholz won't strain a muscle or fray a ligament and have to miss significant time anyways. If a guy is sore or tired, sure, go ahead and skip him (because pitchers are more likely to get hurt when they pitch sore/tired), but skipping one of your best pitchers when he feels healthy makes no sense. The benefit that you're assuming is just too uncertain. (If anything, you want to do the opposite and get as many innings out of a pitcher before he breaks down.)
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Feb 16, 2014 18:11:02 GMT -5
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Post by charliezink16 on Feb 16, 2014 19:39:14 GMT -5
Congratulations to the Greenville Drive for getting a shoutout in the new season of House of Cards. I was going to post this, but didn't think it would be wanted. Great post, excellent show.
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Post by highcheeseandtaters on Feb 17, 2014 1:21:43 GMT -5
Games before the All-Star Break count just as much as games after it, and in the AL East, it's rare that one team will run away with it like the Red Sox did last year. I also think you're taking some of these pitching analogies (the idea that pitchers can't "hold up," "wear down," etc.) too literally. The reason pitchers don't pitch a full season's worth of innings every year is rarely because their arms get too tired because they've pitched too many innings. (That happened to Doubront last year, but it's the exception and typically only takes place with young pitchers yet to establish a routine.) Instead, pitchers miss starts because there's a small chance that a guy develops an acute injury every time he throws a pitch, because pitching is terrible for your body. It's not like these guys have 160 innings that you can distribute exactly the way you want to. Sometimes you can do everything "right," and a guy still gets injured (see, e.g., the Joba rules or what happened to Strasburg). Skipping a few starts early in the season is no guarantee that Peavy or Buchholz won't strain a muscle or fray a ligament and have to miss significant time anyways. If a guy is sore or tired, sure, go ahead and skip him (because pitchers are more likely to get hurt when they pitch sore/tired), but skipping one of your best pitchers when he feels healthy makes no sense. The benefit that you're assuming is just too uncertain. (If anything, you want to do the opposite and get as many innings out of a pitcher before he breaks down.) I see what you're saying-- and to a degree you're probably correct. The fact they can get injured at anytime is a given- thus doesn't really prove anything. B/c of age, injury profile, histories/patterns, you can't convince me stretching out/skipping starts wouldn't be prudent in some cases. Sure, its no guarantee, but watching how peavey for instance pitched late in the year and into the playoffs, it sure struck me that he'd had very little left-- which prompted me to wonder, why? Bucholz-- all bets are off. He can get injured with his kid sleeping on his chest. But the probability that he can pitch serious innings given his track record makes me think they handle him with kid gloves. I also get that all games count-- I was referring strictly to pennant races-- which really don't take shape until the 2nd half of the season. Not exactly surrendering a white flag running out a rookie(s) in a few games pre-all star break-- assuming they're not being thrown to the wolves.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 17, 2014 9:17:46 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Feb 17, 2014 15:28:04 GMT -5
Maureen Mullen ?@maureenamullen 5m Farrell: Sizemore will get work in LF as well as CF, his arm is going to play CF or LF.
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Post by buffs4444 on Feb 17, 2014 16:43:40 GMT -5
Lou Merloni ?@loumerloni 19h ... Saw Lavarnway today at 1B. Oh boy, fighting it with his glove. He's got a lot of work to do Billy Beane: It's not that hard, Scott. Tell him Wash. Ron Washington: It's incredibly hard. Scott Hatteberg: What about the fans? Ron Washington: Yeah, maybe I can teach one of them.
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Post by taftreign on Feb 17, 2014 19:39:22 GMT -5
A minor worry to this point but it does support the thinking of proven injury risk with some of the starting staff and the security that having a Dempster on staff protected against.
Workman held his own last season filling in for a few starts and out of the pen. Owens had a sensational year at Salem and Portland. Ranaudo was excellent most of the year for Portland in what was finally a healthy year for him. I'm looking for consistency with those three but I really will be watching Webster, De la Rosa and Barnes to see who can take a step forward after some struggles last season.
It is time for this group to make a case for in season call ups and their future roles starting in 2015. What I like best is having a deep group all in or near the AAA level which should create a little friendly competition to push these players to bring out their best.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 18, 2014 2:04:14 GMT -5
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Post by bjb406 on Feb 18, 2014 4:36:34 GMT -5
Too bad. I hope he's ready to go in May, because if he can keep pitching like he did in the 2nd half of last year, he could get a chance to really help the Sox this year with Dempster removed from the depth picture. in what universe would stephen wright get playing time over ANY of workman, webster, ranaudo, de la rosa, barnes, owens, or britton? I was shocked they didn't release him, and frankly a little disappointed, because it would have allowed us to make sure we held onto Almanzar.
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