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4/18-4/21 Red Sox vs. Orioles Series Thread
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 19, 2014 8:56:46 GMT -5
Given that he is young...I think it is reasonable to think he will improve...if in fact, this is a weakness in his game. If his bat plays out like we think it will...he only has to be a league average defender to be really valuable. No doubt that the best range defenders have a skill that can't necessarily be taught. I'm sure that his bat will be quite good enough that he can be very valuable even as a 3B. The only problem really is WMB.
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Post by mattpicard on Apr 19, 2014 10:16:49 GMT -5
RF Grady Sizemore 2B Dustin Pedroia DH David Ortiz 1B Mike Napoli LF Mike Carp C David Ross 3B Brock Holt SS Jonathan Herrera CF Jackie Bradley
LHP Felix Doubront
vs.
RF Nick Markakis DH Delmon Young CF Adam Jones 1B Chris Davis LF Nelson Cruz C Matt Wieters SS J.J. Hardy 3B Jonathan Schoop
RHP Bud Norris
Love the commitment to JBJ in center field. Yes, Sizemore's arm is incredibly ineffective, but range trumps throwing in the outfield, and Sizemore is clearly our best option to play RF in Fenway next to Jackie. David Ross hitting sixth, don't see that too often.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Apr 19, 2014 10:19:44 GMT -5
Nice article by Speier, contributing Sox's poor start to faulty defense. Here is an excerpt that is germane to the discussion of X Man's proficiency ( or lack of) at shortstop: The diminutive ensemble of Holt, Jonathan Herrera and Ryan Roberts has lacked the wingspan of Middlebrooks, thus opening up holes in the infield. The range deficiencies of the Sox at third base, in turn, have become even more impactful given that Xander Bogaerts hasn't been able to match the consistently excellent range demonstrated last year by Stephen Drew and Jose Iglesias. At times when Napoli has been absent from first base, Carp and Nava have represented a significant dropoff from the Sox' Gold Glove-caliber regular at the position. He goes on to note that this could change with the return of Shane and Will and leaving Jr. in center. I do not know much. Perhaps you better minds can answer the question of how improvement can be expected from a shortstop, other than learning positioning and improving footwork, or is that enough? Seems they have a certain range at the start and this does not improve, other than through the steps just noted. I am wondering just how much X Man will improve. It's hard to match Iglesias or Drew on Defense; two of the best in the game. But FWIW, Xander has been about league average defensively so far according to Fangraphs - in a small sample size of course. I've always felt that a good first step is the most important part of playing defense, but it is very hard to gauge as a fan because we're trained to watch the pitcher, then the hitter, then the defender - at which point you have already missed the first step (this is usually impossible on TV as we are reliant on the cameras). Has anyone noticed how quick Xander is with his first step? It seems that turning the double play is a skill that improves with age, but I don't have any numbers to back that up.
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Post by godot on Apr 19, 2014 10:28:18 GMT -5
X-Man gets day off and Carp instead of Nava, which explains perhaps Sizemore in right. Also, like the commitment to Jr. The kid does seem to handle adversity and failure well. Might as we let him get his reps in the majors and see what we have, Carp could be a danger to himself in left. Noticed that the Pirates traded for Ike Davis, so there goes one trading partner for Carp. If they keep Bradley when Shane returns, many think Carp could be the odd man out. I wonder if it is Nava. Doesn't he have an option?
Middlebrooks seems a few weeks away. When he comes back, can they keep Herrera and Holt?
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Post by mattpicard on Apr 19, 2014 10:34:15 GMT -5
X-Man gets day off and Carp instead of Nava, which explains perhaps Sizemore in right. Also, like the commitment to Jr. The kid does seem to handle adversity and failure well. Might as we let him get his reps in the majors and see what we have, Carp could be a danger to himself in left. Noticed that the Pirates traded for Ike Davis, so there goes one trading partner for Carp. If they keep Bradley when Shane returns, many think Carp could be the odd man out. I wonder if it is Nava. Doesn't he have an option? Middlebrooks seems a few weeks away. When he comes back, can they keep Herrera and Holt? Nava does have an option. We've discuss the choice the Sox will have to make when Victorino comes back somewhat exhaustively in this thread. Basically, the main arguments are that Nava could go down, preventing the Sox from losing any players, or Carp could be traded since he doesn't offer Nava's defensive flexibility and figures to see the least amount of PA's when everyone is healthy.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 19, 2014 10:34:24 GMT -5
X-Man gets day off and Carp instead of Nava, which explains perhaps Sizemore in right. Also, like the commitment to Jr. The kid does seem to handle adversity and failure well. Might as we let him get his reps in the majors and see what we have, Carp could be a danger to himself in left. Noticed that the Pirates traded for Ike Davis, so there goes one trading partner for Carp. If they keep Bradley when Shane returns, many think Carp could be the odd man out. I wonder if it is Nava. Doesn't he have an option? Middlebrooks seems a few weeks away. When he comes back, can they keep Herrera and Holt? There is no possible way to keep Herrera and Holt. And really no point.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Apr 19, 2014 10:34:31 GMT -5
RF Grady Sizemore 2B Dustin Pedroia DH David Ortiz 1B Mike Napoli LF Mike Carp C David Ross 3B Brock Holt SS Jonathan Herrera CF Jackie Bradley LHP Felix Doubront vs. RF Nick Markakis DH Delmon Young CF Adam Jones 1B Chris Davis LF Nelson Cruz C Matt Wieters SS J.J. Hardy 3B Jonathan Schoop RHP Bud Norris Love the commitment to JBJ in center field. Yes, Sizemore's arm is incredibly ineffective, but range trumps throwing in the outfield, and Sizemore is clearly our best option to play RF in Fenway next to Jackie. David Ross hitting sixth, don't see that too often. WMB and Victorino better get healthy pretty quick as lineups like this are not worth investing 3 and 1/2 hours watching.
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Post by mattpicard on Apr 19, 2014 10:40:00 GMT -5
Middlebrooks seems a few weeks away. When he comes back, can they keep Herrera and Holt? Probably less than that for WMB: Michael Silverman ?@mikesilvermanbb 10m Middlebrooks: "Great, really well" after vigorous jumping/running. Today "big" day in workouts, said Farrell. Rehab stint may begin Mon/Tue No way Holt and Herrera both stick. Both can be optioned, so Holt's ability to get on-base while playing a competent 3B could very well determine who stays. If Holt doesn't open any eyes though, and WMB is ready to play just about everyday, we'll probably stick with Herrera.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 19, 2014 10:44:06 GMT -5
Couldn't we wait to rest Xander when WMB gets back? That looks like a spring training lineup almost.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 19, 2014 10:49:25 GMT -5
Xander is actually one of the players im least worried about.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 19, 2014 11:10:37 GMT -5
I guess in a way the traditionalists and the new schoolers are both getting their way. The replays have corrected a good amount of blown calls but they've shown the human element is still involved as they are still screwing up calls.
They have to get better camera angles on these things. Anybody watching TV replay can see what the call should be. Can't see why MLB is having such issues.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 19, 2014 11:12:02 GMT -5
Another thing. These lineups the Sox are trotting out look terrible and the defense isn't what it was last year. If Marrero hits enough I wouldn't be shocked if he winds up at SS next year or 2016 with Bogaerts at 3b and Cecchini or WMB at 1b and the other one traded.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 19, 2014 11:20:21 GMT -5
Xander actually has a +5 UZR/150 as a major league SS so far but it sure doesn't seem like it. I would think that over time he will be better at positioning for different hitters and he is still so young he probably will not have his range negatively effected for a while. My bet is he clearly gets better defensively.
And look at his early returns so far as a hitter. He's leading the team in walks and OBP and just demolishing the ball on a lot of line drives. A wRC+ of 126. Every indication is that he will be fine as a hitter and probably a stud. To me he is one of the top 3 hitters on the team already.
Xander is the least of our problems. The rookies are doing fine.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 19, 2014 11:30:21 GMT -5
I get the desire for a top defensive SS, improving run prevention substantially. Of course that is hugely important.
But what if we have a tandem on the left side which can give us 30 HR each, average defense and a collective OPS in the 900 range ( per player ). That is absolutely possible with the Bogaerts / Middlebrooks combo within the next 2-3 years. Probably not this year but a good chance to me by next year. Isn't that worth the approach they are taking? That is a ton of offense from the left side. League best offense for the left side potentially.
And look at the player value they are developing, always an extremely important consideration. Even if they do move Xander to 3rd at some point, wouldn't it behoove the team to increase Middlebrook's value before a trade? It almost definitely will be more than it was last year, if they give him a chance this year.
And both of these guys are dirt cheap. The left side configuration going into this year was a huge no brainer to me.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 19, 2014 11:37:52 GMT -5
Xander actually has a +5 UZR/150 as a major league SS so far but it sure doesn't seem like it. I would think that over time he will be better at positioning for different hitters and he is still so young he probably will not have his range negatively effected for a while. My bet is he clearly gets better defensively. And look at his early returns so far as a hitter. He's leading the team in walks and OBP and just demolishing the ball on a lot of line drives. A wRC+ of 126. Every indication is that he will be fine as a hitter and probably a stud. To me he is one of the top 3 hitters on the team already. Xander is the least of our problems. The rookies are doing fine. Defensive metrics are notoriously unreliable. They vary enormously metric-to-metric, and year-to-year for the same metric. That's why some of us were excited about field/fx, though I've heard public release has been put aside for now. The questions I have about Bogaert's defense, after watching him play for a while, are the same ones expressed by scouts including those who do it for this board. His first step can be slow and that's crucial. It means waving at a ball as it goes by, or having to dive and being out of position. We've watched a bit of that. He's effective coming straight in, and he has a good arm. I think his ability to stay at shortstop for any length of time is still an open question. I believe the team will have multiple options going forward, so he may be moving at some point. On the other hand, the hitting is very sweet, just as you point out. You want that bat in the lineup, somewhere.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 19, 2014 12:22:28 GMT -5
Norm, I'm not saying I disagree with you. I do see that a top defensive SS is a huge benefit to any team. No question, and Bogaerts probably is never that guy. He's maybe never even ever going to be average. I think we all see that at this point. So overall, I think we agree.
My point is that we probably do not HAVE to move him for a long time, just as Jeter wasn't moved when the numbers clearly showed that he was below average defensively. A lot of SS play is also positioning and Xander might improve there. And if we move Xander to 3rd or the OF we are taking the bat of whoever he replaces, be it Middlebrooks or Nava or whoever, out of the lineup. Plus he's cost controlled and playing Middelebrooks probably adds to his trade value. Those are all huge considerations.
To me, the left side this year is an investment in the future of the team, in it's ability to field a team which is competitive this year while still staying under the luxury tax limit this year. And the future dividends could be huge for increased trade value from Middlebrooks or Cechinni, Betts...etc if the infield is solid with internal solutions.
I would roll the dice with Middlebrooks and Bogaerts for sure this year.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 19, 2014 12:27:39 GMT -5
Red Sox Stats ?@redsoxstats 19m
Mike Carp has a .429 BABIP with a .190 expected BABIP, Daniel Nava has a .140 BABIP with a .254 xBABIP.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 19, 2014 12:37:14 GMT -5
Red Sox Stats ?@redsoxstats 19m Mike Carp has a .429 BABIP with a .190 expected BABIP, Daniel Nava has a .140 BABIP with a .254 xBABIP. Probably an error, no? In the system. For example, Fangraphs right now has Johnny Peralta's BABIP at .175 with a BA of .196. Sometimes the data just isn't accurate.
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Post by templeusox on Apr 19, 2014 12:49:41 GMT -5
The defense has been as bad as I've ever seen this season. Everyone except JBJ has been incompetent.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 19, 2014 12:49:46 GMT -5
Well, Herrera is not the solution to our defensive problems at SS.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 19, 2014 13:03:44 GMT -5
The amount of double plays this team is hitting into is unbelievable.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 19, 2014 13:05:39 GMT -5
I know these are "professional hitters" but I can't stand it when a pitcher is having questionable control and some yahoo swings at the first pitch. You do it, you better get a hit or you're not welcome over here for dinner and beers.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Apr 19, 2014 13:28:14 GMT -5
Middlebrooks seems a few weeks away. When he comes back, can they keep Herrera and Holt? Probably less than that for WMB: Michael Silverman ?@mikesilvermanbb 10m Middlebrooks: "Great, really well" after vigorous jumping/running. Today "big" day in workouts, said Farrell. Rehab stint may begin Mon/Tue No way Holt and Herrera both stick. Both can be optioned, so Holt's ability to get on-base while playing a competent 3B could very well determine who stays. If Holt doesn't open any eyes though, and WMB is ready to play just about everyday, we'll probably stick with Herrera. Even with a tremendous showing - I don't see how Holt sticks. It's pretty clear the club doesn't see him as a SS option and Pedey rarely gets days off unless he's injured. So the only purpose he might serve would be to give Middlebrooks a day off vs RHP every once in a while. Herrera, despite his faults, can at least play a respectable SS (-1.9 UZR/150 career). The metrics indicate that Holt has been a slightly better base-runner for his career - but I'm guessing this is a bit of a wash. Hoping Marrero is ready to knock both of them out come September.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Apr 19, 2014 13:30:16 GMT -5
Well, Herrera is not the solution to our defensive problems at SS. What are the chances that, if we continue to have some kind of problem on the left side (injury/offensive suckitude, whatever) and Drew continues to be unsigned, that the Sox sign him closer to the draft if/when it becomes clear that no one else is going to sign him before then and so the draft pick issue becomes moot? If no one else wants to make the commitment and give us a draft pick, isn't there a window before the draft where the Sox may actually have an advantage in signing him if they want to?
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 19, 2014 13:35:44 GMT -5
What are the chances that, if we continue to have some kind of problem on the left side (injury/offensive suckitude, whatever) and Drew continues to be unsigned, that the Sox sign him closer to the draft if/when it becomes clear that no one else is going to sign him before then and so the draft pick issue becomes moot? If no one else wants to make the commitment and give us a draft pick, isn't there a window before the draft where the Sox may actually have an advantage in signing him if they want to? Drew has his own thread. I personally doubt Drew is willing to settle for a half-a-year contract, at least before the draft, and I doubt the Sox are willing to give him a longer one.
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