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Xander Bogaerts' defense at shortstop
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Post by jmei on Apr 25, 2014 13:09:27 GMT -5
Figured this would be an important enough topic to deserve its own thread. Xander's defense has really struggled thus far this season, as he's had a slow first step, mediocre range, and a proclivity for bad throws to first. Here's Alex Speier, preaching some patience: Should the Red Sox continue to let Xander play through the growing pains at shortstop? At what point would you be willing to move Xander to another position (most likely third base)? What would the short- and long-term implications of a position switch be? |
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 25, 2014 13:50:50 GMT -5
Here's my take. Bogaerts been bad at everything a shortstop does defensively. His first step has been bad. His range is below average. His hands are hard. And his pivot on the 4-6-3 double play has been pretty much unspeakable - I'm never taking that play for granted again after three weeks of watching Bogaerts do it. So it's not like there's one thing he needs to get better at. I'm skeptical of someone who needs to improve at doing everything that a shortstop does ever getting there.
The thing he can do is hit. Really, really hit. So let him hit. Instead of having him work hard at becoming merely a below average shortstop instead of a bad one, move him to an easier position and let him focus on what he does well. I'm not sure if he can handle third base - that's a hard position too - but he seemed better there in limited exposure last fall than he's looked at shortstop.
I'm going to put out a worst-case comparison. It's a flawed comp, I know, but I'm using it to illustrate a point. I firmly believe that Jesus Montero's bat failed because the Yankees, and then the Mariners, forced him to work so hard at trying to become a catcher that it took away from what him developing what he did well. Yes, Montero also had effort issues, and ate his way out of a job apparently, so there are other factors there. But to me, that's the doomsday scenario - taking a player and having his best skill atrophy because you're so worried about him improving his worst.
What is the end game here? Bogaerts should hit plenty well enough to play any position on the diamond. The Dewan analysis that Speier links to (and you posted a couple days ago) says that Bogaerts has cost the team four runs already this season defensively. So we're not talking about Derek Jeter, who gives some runs back but was such a great hitter that he provided a lot of value anyway. Bogaerts defense is effectively negating his offense. The impact on pitchers shouldn't be forgotten either. We can preach patience, but it's hard to be patient with Bogaerts if him learning to play shortstop is also hindering the development of Felix Doubront, or whichever Triple-A pitcher the team turns to at their first injury. It's hard to be patient with him if his inability to catch the ball means the starting pitcher keeps getting knocked out early, leading to the Red Sox already having a depleted bullpen on April 25th.
There is a fine line between patience and stubbornness.
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Post by dmaineah on Apr 25, 2014 14:09:04 GMT -5
He should be a 1B. Play him at 1B and let him go out there and SMASH for the next 15 years
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Apr 25, 2014 14:41:16 GMT -5
WOW.....these comments are harsh. It is certainly easy after (these) 17 games to become negative. I'm not there. Jeter was a total waste at short in the lower minors, and became dependable. Speier's article was (as usual) real good. The reward of having Xander remain at short (if he becomes average defensively) is immense. I don't think there is anything he can't eventually do on the diamond.
The one point Alex made that made me ponder....was about the pitcher's confidence or lack there of with a below average infield. Valid point and I may change my mind, but just not so quickly.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Apr 25, 2014 15:00:32 GMT -5
I'm for patience:
- According to Fangraphs the net sum of his performance has still been worth 0.3 WAR, so he doesn't seem to be overall making the team worse.
- If they moved him to a new position now, even if the position is easier, it would be very difficult in the short term for him to learn on the fly. Probably as difficult, or more so, than to continue to learn shortstop.
- If he moved to another position then not only would the Red Sox have to move another player, but they would have to find a suitable SS replacement (insert obvious Drew plug here). Who on the team should the Red Sox remove to make room for Xander's new position?
- Is Xander one of the top 25 players available to the team? If yes - then they probably shouldn't be sending him back to the minors at this point. So how do you deal with the position change and new learning curve?
If the Red Sox were 15-8, I don't think this will be an issue for most people on this forum. It's a long season - let's wait until May/June as mentioned by Lovullo and then decide if something has to change. There is a good chance Drew will still be out there.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 25, 2014 15:07:56 GMT -5
Speier's article gives me the impression that the best-case scenario here is that Xander will be as good as a SS in MLB as he was in the minors, and as I understand it that wasn't particularily good either. I don't see any path to him becoming an actually good (as opposed to merely adequate) shortstop, and I think it is a very good idea to have a good shortstop. So in principle I would be willing to move him right now.
There are two main problems with moving Xander to 3rd base: (1) the Sox traded away Jose Iglesias and (2) the Sox did not trade away Will Middlebrooks. I completely understand why the Sox sold high on Iglesias, he had a completely unsustainable BABIP and there was bound to be a team who thought it wouldn't regress as much. But notwithstanding my pessimism on Iglesias' hitting, I thought he was such a spectacularly good defender that it was worth having him even with one of the worst bats in MLB. (Besides, Iglesias is young and hard-working enough that his bat may yet improve to the level of a league-average #7 hitter. Not saying it's likely but it is possible.)
My short-term plan would be to sign Drew, play Bogaerts/Drew against righties and WMB/Bogaerts against lefties while also giving WMB the occasional start at 1B to keep Napoli fresh. (My even shorter-term plan right now would have been to keep WMB at AAA, by the way.) That's probably just not enough plate appearances for WMB's development though so a trade would be on the horizon.
Long-term, though, we need a shortstop. Drew probably has 2 or so good years left. Either Marrero needs to hit his ceiling, or we need to trade for a shortstop of the future.
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Post by okin15 on Apr 25, 2014 15:28:43 GMT -5
I think you have to give the kid at least till September. He's 21 years old for friggin sake! At that point, they'll have to decide where his medium term future is.
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Post by jmei on Apr 25, 2014 15:30:53 GMT -5
Long-term, though, we need a shortstop. Drew probably has 2 or so good years left. Either Marrero needs to hit his ceiling, or we need to trade for a shortstop of the future. I'll note that this upcoming free agent pool is actually pretty stocked at shortstop. Potential starter-caliber options include Hanley Ramirez (who is unlikely to sign with Boston, but may ignite a bidding war between LA and NY that provides some cover to get one of the other available options), J.J. Hardy, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Jed Lowrie. Those last three names sound like the sort of solid-but-unspectacular starters that this front office has liked in free agency of late. |
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 25, 2014 15:53:21 GMT -5
Xander has not been good. But this whole site is about Sox Prospects ... this is what happens with prospects. They fail at something when they first come up, almost uniformly. The question is whether the potential payoff outweighs the current cost. To me, it seems clear that it's at least worth sticking with for a while to see how it goes. I mean, if Xander can even sniff average as a shortstop, he's going to be so outlandishly valuable because he really is a superstar hitter in the making. Around June 1st, he's going to start hitting for real power, and it's gonna be awesome to behold.
Personally, I said back when he was at Salem that I didn't think he'd stick at shortstop, but I actually think he's improved enormously. He's being compared to some elite athletes in MLB shortstops, but footwork, etc, is night and day from what it was. I actually think he might be able to stick, and it's worth the shot.
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Post by burythehammer on Apr 25, 2014 16:11:11 GMT -5
I agree with everyone who says he's been very bad. And I'm not optimistic that he'll ever be good. That said, his current UZR/150 is -21.7, and I'll take the over on that, easily. And even WITH that his updated ZIPS projection is 2.6 WAR. As a 21 year old.
If the Red Sox were 6 games over .500 I'm not sure we'd even be having this thread.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 25, 2014 16:14:09 GMT -5
I agree with everyone who says he's been very bad. And I'm not optimistic that he'll ever be good. That said, his current UZR/150 is -21.7, and I'll take the over on that, easily. And even WITH that his updated ZIPS projection is 2.6 WAR. As a 21 year old. If the Red Sox were 6 games over .500 I'm not sure we'd even be having this thread. Of course we would! We're Red Sox fans. In fact the laments would be "We could bury this division by May if Xander would just stop booting the ball!" |
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Post by godot on Apr 25, 2014 16:20:35 GMT -5
Sometimes it seems like the Sox are a perennial bottom finisher instead of a recent World Series champ, looking at the long term. Feel sorry for X-Man. The Sox are putting him in position where he will fail because of JH's models. How much patience should we have with being patient? Jr. looks over-matched at the bat, and X-Man's ffot work may have improved, but it is the first step that is important. This is what happens when business models and people are used in place of baseball judgment.
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Post by terriblehondo on Apr 25, 2014 16:23:27 GMT -5
The thing I have noticed is he gets horrible jumps. He does not start moving until after the ball is hit. He does not read the batters swing at all. I thought it was the slow to react at 3rd base last year. I thought it would get better moving back to shortstop but I have not seen it. He looks like he has the athletic ability to stick but right now I would hate to be pitching with him behind me. To me I do not know if he will ever be an average infielder. I hope he gets better but as of this time I think he will have to move off the position. But I thought Hanley would have to move off the position also and he is still there.
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Post by jmei on Apr 25, 2014 16:25:07 GMT -5
I agree with everyone who says he's been very bad. And I'm not optimistic that he'll ever be good. That said, his current UZR/150 is -21.7, and I'll take the over on that, easily. And even WITH that his updated ZIPS projection is 2.6 WAR. As a 21 year old. The idea is not that Xander is actively hurting the team at shortstop or that he's below replacement-level. The idea is that the Red Sox might be much better this season if he was playing mostly third base. Xander's defensive problems have mainly been that he has a slow first step and lacks range. This is a big problem at shortstop but a lesser one at third base. In the abstract, the positional adjustment difference between shortstop and third base is 5 runs. But I think Xander at 3B is definitely more than 5 runs better than Xander at SS right now, and that might continue to be true even if he gets reps at SS through the end of the season. If that's the case, it would make the team better this year to move Bogaerts to 3B as long as his replacement at shortstop is a better player than Will Middlebrooks, and the magnitude of that improvement might be enough to make it worth forgoing whatever development gains Xander would get from playing SS the entire season, especially if you think Xander will inevitably have to move off SS. |
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Post by pedroelgrande on Apr 25, 2014 16:28:35 GMT -5
Sometimes it seems like the Sox are a perennial bottom finisher instead of a recent World Series champ, looking at the long term. Feel sorry for X-Man. The Sox are putting him in position where he will fail because of JH's models. How much patience should we have with being patient? Jr. looks over-matched at the bat, and X-Man's ffot work may have improved, but it is the first step that is important. This is what happens when business models and people are used in place of baseball judgment. What business model? the one that has brought 3 WS to a team that had never won anything? Yeah that model has been so unsuccessful its not even funny. They should give 7 year deal to a bunch of 30 something that has proven to be the most successful. The Cardinals the perennial contender do it through player development. I'm sure they have been very unsuccessful since they haven't won it since 2011. |
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Post by jdb on Apr 25, 2014 16:39:29 GMT -5
I think you have to give the kid at least till September. He's 21 years old for friggin sake! At that point, they'll have to decide where his medium term future is. This is kind of where I am to. Making a knee jerk reaction before April ends isn't the way to go. This offseason they thought enough of his potential in the field he at least needs some time. Now if it's obvious by the trade deadline or in the offseason we need to make the move. (Also remember Jimmy Rollins had a run in with Philly management in spring training. He could be an option for a team needing a SS) James Dunn does make some great points though. Do most around here think he could handle 3B or do you want him in LF? |
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Post by burythehammer on Apr 25, 2014 16:41:50 GMT -5
The idea is not that Xander is actively hurting the team at shortstop or that he's below replacement-level. The idea is that the Red Sox might be much better this season if he was playing mostly third base. Xander's defensive problems have mainly been that he has a slow first step and lacks range. This is a big problem at shortstop but a lesser one at third base. In the abstract, the positional adjustment difference between shortstop and third base is 5 runs. But I think Xander at 3B is definitely more than 5 runs better than Xander at SS right now, and that might continue to be true even if he gets reps at SS through the end of the season. If that's the case, it would make the team better this year to move Bogaerts to 3B as long as his replacement at shortstop is a better player than Will Middlebrooks, and the magnitude of that improvement might be enough to make it worth forgoing whatever development gains Xander would get from playing SS the entire season, especially if you think Xander will inevitably have to move off SS. If he's not hurting the team then it's worth suffering the growing pains for the (however small) chance he actually becomes average or better defensively, along with being a stud hitter which would put him in the conversation for best player in baseball. It's not so much Xander's value that would be hurt by moving to 3B, but the long-term effect on the team. The chances of them developting/drafting/signing/trading for a guy who can play SS and hit anywhere near as well as Xander is very slim. Much slimmer than finding that guy at third base, and that's if WMB and Cecchini both don't pan out there (which is very possible admittedly ). There's a reason why people refer to guys like Bogaerts as "cornerstones." |
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Post by iakovos11 on Apr 25, 2014 16:51:34 GMT -5
Sometimes it seems like the Sox are a perennial bottom finisher instead of a recent World Series champ, looking at the long term. Feel sorry for X-Man. The Sox are putting him in position where he will fail because of JH's models. How much patience should we have with being patient? Jr. looks over-matched at the bat, and X-Man's ffot work may have improved, but it is the first step that is important. This is what happens when business models and people are used in place of baseball judgment. Way off thread topic here, but dude you need to get some happiness in your life. Maybe I'm wrong, I have no sabermetric statistics to support my observations, but you seem to be consistently negative and seem depressed about all Red Sox major and minor league developments. Is nothing short of total MLB (and top prospect success) domination each and every year satisfactory for you? Your not just glass half empty, your just no glass exists at all. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 25, 2014 16:52:02 GMT -5
So those who want to move Xander think he was misevaluated by the Red Sox. I'm willing to wait a bit. Not that I think you should compound an error by dragging it out, but they saw something there that they wouldn't have seen if he were this fad at "everything". Maybe he's just over thinking. Maybe he's just slow in the good right now because he's not used to it. He's not driving he ball much either. A lot of weak swings.. Looks to be swinging with his arms.
Also, why isn't this just part of the Xander Bogaerts thread?
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Post by godot on Apr 25, 2014 17:03:51 GMT -5
Sometimes it seems like the Sox are a perennial bottom finisher instead of a recent World Series champ, looking at the long term. Feel sorry for X-Man. The Sox are putting him in position where he will fail because of JH's models. How much patience should we have with being patient? Jr. looks over-matched at the bat, and X-Man's foot work may have improved, but it is the first step that is important. This is what happens when business models and people are used in place of baseball judgment. Way off thread topic here, but dude you need to get some happiness in your life. Maybe I'm wrong, I have no sabermetric statistics to support my observations, but you seem to be consistently negative and seem depressed about all Red Sox major and minor league developments. Is nothing short of total MLB (and top prospect success) domination each and every year satisfactory for you? Your not just glass half empty, your just no glass exists at all. Brilliant, I will now look at some Shirley Temple films. |
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Post by iakovos11 on Apr 25, 2014 17:15:58 GMT -5
I care about my fellow prospect fanatics. I just want to be sure you have some joy in your life. If Shirley Temple works for you, so be it.
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Post by terriblehondo on Apr 25, 2014 17:24:28 GMT -5
This is the 1st time for me to really see Xander on a day to day basis. The drop off from Drew who is a steady but unspectacular defender has been bigger than I thought it would be. This team has been below average defensively at every position except 2nd, 1st and when JBJ is in center. On top of that they are not hitting which makes every play not made crucial and there have been a ton of them. So far it has been ugly to watch.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 25, 2014 17:34:41 GMT -5
I am thankful for this thread...as I can learn from other people's point of view. As far as development goes...He is a first year player learning pitchers, hitting, position, throw, field, game speed, travel.......at the major league level. Are people really that smart that they can determine his peak defensively after 20 games in the majors? Is it that hard to believe that someone can improve defensively, just as they could offensively?
It may be that he is hurting his team defensively, now, but for cryin out loud. People really want to sign Stephen Drew now, and forego that chance...as slight as some may think...that he will the generational combination of an offensive/defensive SS!!!
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 25, 2014 17:45:14 GMT -5
I am not even 5% in favor of moving Xander off SS this year. You guys are looking at an extremely small sample size, with the negative 4 DRS, but he was plus 2 last year in his limited time at SS with a UZR/150 way up there as well. The samples sizes are statistically insignificant at this point.
In terms of scouting, no he doesn't look great but I don't think he's horrible either and he is still very young. Why not give the kid a chance to learn the position at the MLB level some? He still will be a plus 2-3 WAR at minimum at SS for us and by the way, we don't have a good replacement option. Drew is out of the question financially and he will want a multiple year deal and was only barely above average himself defensively.
This is really a no brainer decision. Play Xander at SS. Give Middlebrooks a chance to produce this year at 3rd. Hopefully they work out. My bet is that they will not be much below average at worse case scenario at year end and both are cheap as heck and probably improve over time. And who knows, one of them might well emerge as a true star.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 25, 2014 18:57:44 GMT -5
The missing element from a lot of this discussion - mentioned by a few posters but otherwise absent - is that both he and Bradley are rookies. They need to learn their roles, learn the routine, learn the roster, learn their way around the league. It's rare to have a new player excel in all facets of the game from the get go, especially one as young as Bogaerts. Might be wise to remember that he's all of 4 years into this and he's playing in the majors. Some of you have already written him off at SS and 3rd, despite the fact that's exactly where he played in post-season for the WS champions if I remember right.
Before the season started it was suggested that they might start off slowly but that he should be given time, time that the team was hopefully willing to allow given their success last year. I know the expectations are high, but I think we should cut him some slack. If he doesn't pan out at shortstop, he may well be the first to admit it given his obvious maturity. Meanwhile, we get to watch that OJT, both good and bad.
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