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Jeff Samardzija
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Post by jdb on Nov 30, 2014 9:40:59 GMT -5
I agree with Umassgrad that he seems poised to take that next step. With limited milage on that arm I think he would be very high on BCs wish list. I wonder if a third team could get involved and send a good prospect to Oakland for Cespedes while we add Marrero to meet their SS need.
Buster tweet
Pitches thrown in reg. season:Samardzija 12,567; Lester 26,321; Scherzer 20,944; Cueto 19,518; Hamels 27,886; Price 19,336; Shields 29,461.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 30, 2014 10:11:42 GMT -5
IMO Samardzija's next step will come in limiting his walks, which is a hard thing to project when it will happen. His velocity is only going to decrease from where he is now so I doubt he improved his K rate much.
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Nov 30, 2014 11:01:30 GMT -5
I agree with others that Samardzija is a very solid piece to add to our rotation, and also that he's only getting better. However, I do believe it's important to consider how much of that upside we'd get to experience. He is going to be a free agent and last season turned down an extension offer from the Cubs, widely believed to be along the lines of 5yrs and $80M.I'd love to acquire and extend Samardzija, but he's going to get paid like a number 1 starter, and I'm not entirely sure he's worth that. Makes it difficult to speculate as to what he'd actually cost to acquire - though I think it'd be quite a bit more than just Cespedes.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 30, 2014 12:27:17 GMT -5
I agree with others that Samardzija is a very solid piece to add to our rotation, and also that he's only getting better. However, I do believe it's important to consider how much of that upside we'd get to experience. He is going to be a free agent and last season turned down an extension offer from the Cubs, widely believed to be along the lines of 5yrs and $80M.I'd love to acquire and extend Samardzija, but he's going to get paid like a number 1 starter, and I'm not entirely sure he's worth that. Makes it difficult to speculate as to what he'd actually cost to acquire - though I think it'd be quite a bit more than just Cespedes. I agree that he isn't a #1 starter - but next year in free agency he would likely get 6/130 for being a #2 starter. That's just how much #2 starters are making (expected to make - see Lester/Shields) these days. For an ace you're looking at 25-30mil/yr. There's always the draft pick.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 30, 2014 15:12:28 GMT -5
IMO Samardzija's next step will come in limiting his walks, which is a hard thing to project when it will happen. His velocity is only going to decrease from where he is now so I doubt he improved his K rate much. His K rate is already elite, so who cares if he increases it.
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 2, 2014 9:34:59 GMT -5
I wonder if Samardzija's value would be worth more to Oakland at the trading deadline.
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Post by seadogs34 on Dec 2, 2014 11:05:38 GMT -5
Buster Olney @buster_ESPN · 5h 5 hours ago
OAK needs a SS, and depending on how Oakland evaluates BOS SS prospect Deven Marrero, he could be a theoretical match for Jeff Samardzija.
Marrero and young Controlled SP seems like a good start to an offer for Samardzija. Going to take at least one more player but Im intrigued at the possibility of hopefully slotting him in the #2 slot assumuming Lester signs. That moves Buchholz to 3 which is a perfect spot for him.
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 2, 2014 11:13:41 GMT -5
According to the Globe, the Sox are one of several teams interested in Samardzija. Players of interest to the A's include Ranaudo, Holt and Bradley, according to Gottlieb's report.
Be nice if Jaso can be included in this deal, if, indeed it becomes real.
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Dec 2, 2014 11:39:17 GMT -5
Bradley Jr is probably the name in that deal I'd like to include the least. He should start in AAA to see if he can get his offense back on track, obviously. However, even if he cannot, as a defensive standout and a left handed hitter, he is the natural compliment to an outfield of Ramirez, Castillo and Betts. Utlimately if the trade came down to Marrero and Bradley for Shark and Oakland wouldn't budge on anyone else, I'd pull the trigger, but would prefer not to sell what I think of as absurdly low on Bradley.
That said, a trade of Marerro and Ranaudo for Samardzija seems about fair to both teams in my opinion. Would also enable us to have some assets to trade for another SP, likely to fill in the 3 role, or for a very good bullpen arm. If that's what it takes, I hope we get this done.
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Post by jmei on Dec 2, 2014 11:43:40 GMT -5
That said, a trade of Marerro and Ranaudo for Samardzija seems about fair to both teams in my opinion. Would also enable us to have some assets to trade for another SP, likely to fill in the 3 role, or for a very good bullpen arm. If that's what it takes, I hope we get this done. Keep in mind that six months ago, Samardzija returned Addison Russell, one of the consensus top 10 prospects in baseball. We obviously have no idea how Beane values these guys, and that's all that matters, but I'm skeptical that Marrero and Ranaudo gets it done.
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 2, 2014 11:48:04 GMT -5
Bradley Jr is probably the name in that deal I'd like to include the least. He should start in AAA to see if he can get his offense back on track, obviously. However, even if he cannot, as a defensive standout and a left handed hitter, he is the natural compliment to an outfield of Ramirez, Castillo and Betts. Utlimately if the trade came down to Marrero and Bradley for Shark and Oakland wouldn't budge on anyone else, I'd pull the trigger, but would prefer not to sell what I think of as absurdly low on Bradley. That said, a trade of Marerro and Ranaudo for Samardzija seems about fair to both teams in my opinion. Would also enable us to have some assets to trade for another SP, likely to fill in the 3 role, or for a very good bullpen arm. If that's what it takes, I hope we get this done. I think that would be a steal for the Red Sox. They would get a chance to extend him and if not give him a QO
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Post by jrffam05 on Dec 2, 2014 11:49:07 GMT -5
I don't think Bradley gets moved, a combo of not wanting to sell low, and also being a very important depth piece in 2015. Right now we have Ramirez, Castillo, Betts, Victorino, Cespedes, Craig, and Nava on our MLB roster. Theoretically some of those players could be optioned but it is not realistic. Ramirez cannot be traded, Castillo, technically can be but no chance of that happening, and Betts is probably untouchable unless we are talking someone like Sale, which is also unlikely. of the 4 remaining 2 will have to be moved. After that we have very little depth ready to step into an MLB outfield spot. Even with Bradley's offensive problems he is a good player for a 6th outfield spot (he probably starts on some teams right now).
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Post by seadogs34 on Dec 2, 2014 11:51:37 GMT -5
That said, a trade of Marerro and Ranaudo for Samardzija seems about fair to both teams in my opinion. Would also enable us to have some assets to trade for another SP, likely to fill in the 3 role, or for a very good bullpen arm. If that's what it takes, I hope we get this done. Keep in mind that six months ago, Samardzija returned Addison Russell, one of the consensus top 10 prospects in baseball. We obviously have no idea how Beane values these guys, and that's all that matters, but I'm skeptical that Marrero and Ranaudo gets it done. I agree to a point. I think considering the price tag that was given for Samardzija Oakland will need a strong package back. That being said there is a big difference between having him for 2 postseason runs versus only having him in his walk year. His value is clearly lower than it was at the time of that trade. Beane seems to love to buy low on guys from us so I could certainly see him liking guys like JBJ WMB or even Allen Criag. Probably not as a centerpiece to a deal but as a complimentary part.
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Dec 2, 2014 12:11:57 GMT -5
I won't argue what I think is a "worthy" return since there are plenty of people on here that are smarter than I am.
One thing I am taking into account is that Addison Russell (Dan Straily and Billy McKinney) were traded for, potentially, two playoff pushes from Samardzjia (controlled in 2014 and 2015), along with the compensation pick and also returned another of the "bigger" pitching names moved last season in Jason Hammel whom at the time was seen as a very desirable asset.
Keep in mind, I think this was a bad trade from the perspective of the A's since Hammel had nearly a 5.00ERA pitching in for three seasons in the AL and it seemed natural that he was an "NL only" pitcher, so to speak, but it wasn't Russell for one year of Samardzija. At this point, we are now looking one playoff push from Samardzija and the draft pick, which is - at least in my opinion, worth a bit less than the package last July (and I personally think that Theo took Billy Beane to the cleaners on that deal).
I'll put this another way, if Cherington were to trade Swihart, Margot and Bradley Jr (about equivalent, but the A's package being worth slightly more because Russell > Swihart; Margot = McKinney and Bradley Jr = Straily, at least in my opinion) for Andrew Cashner and Ian Kennedy (roughly equivalent in ability and control to Samardzija and Hammel) I would be very upset at that trade from the perspective of a Red Sox fan.
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 2, 2014 12:30:21 GMT -5
According to the Globe, the Sox are one of several teams interested in Samardzija. Players of interest to the A's include Ranaudo, Holt and Bradley, according to Gottlieb's report. Brock Holt makes a huge amount of sense for the A's. Steamer600 projects him for 1.7 WAR, and I'm not sure what position that's at, but if it's the outfield then the A's are likely to be able to get even more value from him. His skillset (defense, no homers) is one that will be significantly underpaid in arbitration. 5 years of Holt for only 1 year of Shark seems almost like an overpay in some ways but since he will be more useful to the A's than to us it looks like a good deal for both sides to me.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 2, 2014 13:51:55 GMT -5
That said, a trade of Marerro and Ranaudo for Samardzija seems about fair to both teams in my opinion. Would also enable us to have some assets to trade for another SP, likely to fill in the 3 role, or for a very good bullpen arm. If that's what it takes, I hope we get this done. Keep in mind that six months ago, Samardzija returned Addison Russell, one of the consensus top 10 prospects in baseball. We obviously have no idea how Beane values these guys, and that's all that matters, but I'm skeptical that Marrero and Ranaudo gets it done. The one question I have is why would the A's trade an elite shortstop prospect that was close the majors in 2014, when they don't have a SS for 2015? I know part of it was the A's going for it, but I get the sense that Billy sold high on Russell.
I would increase my offer from Marerro and Ranaudo to include at least one more good prospect. Would Margot get it done? Seems like a sell high guy to me. Great year, very young seems to have all star potential, but he is a long way off. A lot can happen in the next few years before he's ready for the majors. Hasn't really seen advanced pitching yet. If you don't want to move him include a couple prospect like Coyle, Rijo, Brentz, or Shaw.
Does Marerro, Ranaudo, Coyle, Brentz and Shaw get us Samardzija? Would the A's take a bunch of good but not great/elite prospects? That allows us to hold onto the potential of Margot and players like Rijo.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 2, 2014 14:06:38 GMT -5
I won't argue what I think is a "worthy" return since there are plenty of people on here that are smarter than I am. One thing I am taking into account is that Addison Russell (Dan Straily and Billy McKinney) were traded for, potentially, two playoff pushes from Samardzjia (controlled in 2014 and 2015), along with the compensation pick and also returned another of the "bigger" pitching names moved last season in Jason Hammel whom at the time was seen as a very desirable asset. Keep in mind, I think this was a bad trade from the perspective of the A's since Hammel had nearly a 5.00ERA pitching in for three seasons in the AL and it seemed natural that he was an "NL only" pitcher, so to speak, but it wasn't Russell for one year of Samardzija. At this point, we are now looking one playoff push from Samardzija and the draft pick, which is - at least in my opinion, worth a bit less than the package last July (and I personally think that Theo took Billy Beane to the cleaners on that deal). I'll put this another way, if Cherington were to trade Swihart, Margot and Bradley Jr (about equivalent, but the A's package being worth slightly more because Russell > Swihart; Margot = McKinney and Bradley Jr = Straily, at least in my opinion) for Andrew Cashner and Ian Kennedy (roughly equivalent in ability and control to Samardzija and Hammel) I would be very upset at that trade from the perspective of a Red Sox fan. I would be upset if we traded Swihart, Margot and Bradley for Cashner and Kennedy. The main reason is Cashner isn't Samardzjia, at least not yet. Samardzjia was 26th in WAR for pitchers last year, Cashner was 94th.
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Dec 2, 2014 14:37:16 GMT -5
Fair enough since I agree Samardzija is better than Cashner and was last year, but also figure in Kennedy was quite a bit better than Hammel last season as well (2.9 vs 1.7). Though I admit it was very difficult to find similarly ranked pitchers with similar control to make a parallel and Cashner & Kennedy were the closest I came up with.
However, even with that resultant difference between the two packages, the value might be a bit mitigated since I believe people would admit that Addison Russell is a superior prospect to Blake Swihart. For the mid season rankings (most 2015 aren't up yet) Russell was a consenus top 5 prospect. Swihart was generally between 15-25 from what I could tell. I haven't found any top lists for 2015 as of yet, but I'd bet those numbers remain pretty similar.
Overall, the point was that I think Beane over-paid by quite a bit in that deal. So while I'd like Samardzija, if we're setting his overpayment as a baseline for what we'd need to get a deal done, I don't think it's worth the cost.
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 2, 2014 14:51:02 GMT -5
Fair enough since I agree Samardzija is better than Cashner and was last year, but also figure in Kennedy was quite a bit better than Hammel last season as well (2.9 vs 1.7). Though I admit it was very difficult to find similarly ranked pitchers with similar control to make a parallel and Cashner & Kennedy were the closest I came up with. However, even with that resultant difference between the two packages, the value might be a bit mitigated since I believe people would admit that Addison Russell is a superior prospect to Blake Swihart. For the mid season rankings (most 2015 aren't up yet) Russell was a consenus top 5 prospect. Swihart was generally between 15-25 from what I could tell. I haven't found any top lists for 2015 as of yet, but I'd bet those numbers remain pretty similar. Overall, the point was that I think Beane over-paid by quite a bit in that deal. So while I'd like Samardzija, if we're setting his overpayment as a baseline for what we'd need to get a deal done, I don't think it's worth the cost. Seems reasonable when your chasing the World Series
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Dec 2, 2014 15:07:31 GMT -5
Which is why, generally speaking, teams get more return mid-season than they do in the off-season. I understand this is counter-intuitive (for getting 30 starts out of a pitcher and a pick SHOULD be more valuable than getting 10 starts from them), however it often doesn't work this way.
The reason - I think - is because when you're talking in-season there are fewer options available so the supply is more limited for one. The other big thing is that come July 31st, you have a pretty good idea of where you are that year and if winning a championship is a true possibility. So teams are more likely to over-pay because they're able to have roughly four months of data "proving" they're a good team as opposed to an off-season speculating about it.
I still wouldn't want to use Beane's overpay as a benchmark. It'd almost be like saying "we have to give Hanley Ramirez 7 years because that's what the Nationals gave Jayson Werth". For a well-run organization, a mistake doesn't readjust their benchmark as to what value would be based on that mistake.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 2, 2014 18:54:19 GMT -5
I count Cespedes, Ranaudo, Holt, and Marrero as expendable. That has to be enough to get Samardzija, and either he or Cueto appears to be their top trade target. And it maybe ought to be enough to get Cueto.
BTW, Steamer projects Jaso at 1.1 WAR per 450 PA, and his corresponding career pitch framing rate is -2.4. He's the anti-Vazquez defensively, and below replacement level at catcher even if you heavily regress the pitch-framing.
I can see a multi-team deal where the Reds get Samardzija and a low-level prospect for Cueto, and we get Cueto and maybe a prospect, and the A's get Ranaudo or maybe someone else's better prospect, Holt, and Marrero for Samardzija and maybe a prospect ... I can't work it out any better than that.
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Post by jmei on Dec 2, 2014 19:46:36 GMT -5
Why would the Reds swap Cueto for Samardzija? I could see Marrero and Holt being of interest to Oakland, but there's no need to try to force in a third team.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 3, 2014 1:08:01 GMT -5
Why would the Reds swap Cueto for Samardzija? I could see Marrero and Holt being of interest to Oakland, but there's no need to try to force in a third team. Well, obviously by "low-level prospect" I meant "significant prospect." There would be some trade where the mild one-year downgrade in pitching would be offset by the extra body, and the upgrade for us, if we feel it's worth pursuing, would make sense for us only because we have more tradeable talent than holes to fill.
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brendan98
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Post by brendan98 on Dec 4, 2014 11:30:26 GMT -5
I think Samardzija is the pitcher the Red Sox should trade for as soon as possible. Hopefully, Lester decides to come back to the Red Sox, and Samardzija is #2 in the rotation, but he is a guy that the Sox can go get right now, and I’m not sure why this hasn’t happened already.
It is obvious that Billy Beane is in rebuild mode, looking for young MLB players or close to MLB ready, and the Sox are loaded and arguably overloaded with these types of players: Position players: Middlebrooks, Bradley, Cechhini, Marrero, Coyle, Shaw, Swihart, Betts. Vazquez (to name a few) Pitchers: Rodriguez, Owens, Barnes, Johnson, Ranaudo, Webster, De LaRosa, Workman etc… Obviously, the Sox wouldn’t be willing to include all the names listed in a deal for Samardzija, for me I wouldn’t discuss Betts, Swihart, Owens at all, and not likely Vazquez either, but there is almost certainly still a deal to be made with the leftover players listed. The A’s need players at almost every position, if I’m the Sox and I’m dealing from the names above for Samardzija, I am not overly concerned about a perceived overpay because I am dealing from depth that has been passed up, replaced, or blocked (WMB, JBJ, Cecchini, Marrero), or pitchers who Samardzija should represent a best case scenario if we kept them and they surpassed all expectations.
The industry might view trading Rodriguez, Ranaudo, Bradley, and Marrero for Samardzija as an overpay, but I’d do it without a whole lot of hesitation. Marrero is blocked by Xander, JBJ is blocked by Castillo and Betts, Ranaudo is a back of the rotation MLB starter at best, and while Rodriguez is a tough loss he would have to hit his ceiling to approach what you are getting in Samardzija. Now obviously, I am not saying that I would just give away prospects, obviously the Sox would not and should not make an offer this rich as a starting point, but I think they should be willing to go this far to get it done (and more than likely Beane takes a lesser package before negotiations got that far. Also, the Sox would have to feel somewhat confident that an extension could be worked out with Samrdzija to keep him around past this season if you are going to give up such a package.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 4, 2014 13:41:18 GMT -5
I think Samardzija is the pitcher the Red Sox should trade for as soon as possible. Hopefully, Lester decides to come back to the Red Sox, and Samardzija is #2 in the rotation, but he is a guy that the Sox can go get right now, and I’m not sure why this hasn’t happened already. It is obvious that Billy Beane is in rebuild mode, looking for young MLB players or close to MLB ready, and the Sox are loaded and arguably overloaded with these types of players: Position players: Middlebrooks, Bradley, Cechhini, Marrero, Coyle, Shaw, Swihart, Betts. Vazquez (to name a few) Pitchers: Rodriguez, Owens, Barnes, Johnson, Ranaudo, Webster, De LaRosa, Workman etc… Obviously, the Sox wouldn’t be willing to include all the names listed in a deal for Samardzija, for me I wouldn’t discuss Betts, Swihart, Owens at all, and not likely Vazquez either, but there is almost certainly still a deal to be made with the leftover players listed. The A’s need players at almost every position, if I’m the Sox and I’m dealing from the names above for Samardzija, I am not overly concerned about a perceived overpay because I am dealing from depth that has been passed up, replaced, or blocked (WMB, JBJ, Cecchini, Marrero), or pitchers who Samardzija should represent a best case scenario if we kept them and they surpassed all expectations. The industry might view trading Rodriguez, Ranaudo, Bradley, and Marrero for Samardzija as an overpay, but I’d do it without a whole lot of hesitation. Marrero is blocked by Xander, JBJ is blocked by Castillo and Betts, Ranaudo is a back of the rotation MLB starter at best, and while Rodriguez is a tough loss he would have to hit his ceiling to approach what you are getting in Samardzija. Now obviously, I am not saying that I would just give away prospects, obviously the Sox would not and should not make an offer this rich as a starting point, but I think they should be willing to go this far to get it done (and more than likely Beane takes a lesser package before negotiations got that far. Also, the Sox would have to feel somewhat confident that an extension could be worked out with Samrdzija to keep him around past this season if you are going to give up such a package. It hasn't happened yet because if your scenario really only works if the Sox sign Lester (or Scherzer or Shields), but if they don't they might need some of those pieces to make a trade for a Hamels or a Zimmerman or a Cueto or a Cashner. The Sox are waiting on Lester to see how things shake out. Samardzija is more of a #2 type pitcher. If the Sox do sign Lester than yes, the pieces are there to get the Shark and if the scenario was that the Sox got Lester and Samardzjia and were able to do that without giving up their top prospects and managed to even do it without surrendering Cespedes, they'd still have enough to get a guy like Rick Porcello, too. Of course that seems like wishful thinking at this point. Odds are Lester will be wearing Dodger blue or a different uniform other than that of the Sox. If that's the case the Sox will be looking for somebody in a trade with similar stats to Lester - I would think it would be Hamels. Guys like Hamels, Zimmerman, and Cueto are a step above the Shark, so I would think they'd have to hold their chips to focus on those guys. I would think all of these moves would be tied together for the Sox and come together pretty quickly - most likely next week at the Winter Meetings. I do expect to see them come away with two pitchers, which two I don't know. I'm rooting for Lester and Samardzija, but would anticipate Hamels and Shields instead. I expect one trade and one free agent signing, and I suspect one will be a lefty and the other a righty, although that's only an opinion, not something they'd necessarily require.
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