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Battle for top 11 (protected) draft picks in 2015 draft
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Post by sammo420 on Aug 23, 2014 11:49:18 GMT -5
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Post by saysbill on Aug 23, 2014 12:53:02 GMT -5
Ah, right. Thanks for pointing that out.
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Post by charliezink16 on Aug 23, 2014 16:13:13 GMT -5
Cubbies are in a delay w/ Baltimore, but lead 4-2 in the 2nd. If they hold on in that game, Boston has moved up to the 6th slot.
God this thread is so depressing.
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Post by soxfan06 on Aug 23, 2014 16:14:31 GMT -5
Cubbies are in a delay w/ Baltimore, but lead 4-2 in the 2nd. If they hold on in that game, Boston has moved up to the 6th slot. God this thread is so depressing. Depresssing but exciting at the same time. If we can get a top 5 pick, I'll be ecstatic.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 23, 2014 17:27:58 GMT -5
I am still thinking we end the year with the third pick.
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 23, 2014 18:30:17 GMT -5
I am still thinking we end the year with the third pick. Then we'd need the second worst record, that isn't happening. Best pick they'd get is 4, but I'm predicting 7 again.
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 23, 2014 20:07:48 GMT -5
Fangraphs projects us for the 6th worst record (7th pick). It's all very close though, we could realistically end up anywhere between the #4 or 5 pick or an unprotected pick.
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Post by Jonathan Singer on Aug 23, 2014 20:20:10 GMT -5
With the unpredictability of the pitching staff and this teams inability to score runs I see them on the worse side and a definite protected pick.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Aug 23, 2014 21:26:22 GMT -5
I don't think they are THAT bad (talking about the worst of the worst here) so they'll probably end up 7th as fangraph has them projected right now. Maybe Big Papi picks up an injury (not that serious of an injury though). That's the only way I see them really bottoming out. I do think they are safe for a protected pick though.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 23, 2014 22:28:42 GMT -5
The Sox have an outside shot at the 4th pick. The Sox are bad enough to do it. The starting pitching should be pretty lousy from hereon out. There's no Lester or Lackey to consistently provide quality and quantity of innings. So the bullpen should be pretty abused, too.
The offense is still lousy, Cespedes or no Cespedes, and you can't count on Castillo, who hasn't played in a year and a half to make any impact on the offense.
So the bottom can drop out on the Sox. They have moved from 10 games under to 17 games under in a week's time. At 56-73, it's not out of the realm of possibility they go 11-22 to finish 67-95. More likely, they go 13-20 to finish 69-93 again.
I think that record can finish worse than Philly and the Cubs. Only Texas, Colorado, Houston, and Arizona should be worse. If the Red Sox finish 67-95, then maybe Houston and Arizona finish ahead of them.
At this point rooting for wins is pretty meaningless. If they're going to stink, finish last, and embarrass themselves, they might as well go all the way.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 23, 2014 22:44:35 GMT -5
If the season ended today, BOS would have the #6 pick:
1. TEX ---- 2. HOU (Aiken supplemental pick, locked in at #2) 3. COL -2.0 4. HOU -5.0 5. ARI -5.0 6. BOS -6.5 (seven-game losing streak) 7. CHC -7.5 8. PHI -7.5 9. MIN -8.5 10. CWS -9.5 (five-game losing streak) 11. SDO -10.0 12. NYM -10.0 13. CIN -12.0 14. TBR -13.5
BOS is 3.5 games out of an unprotected pick.
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, CWS, CHC, MIN, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, CIN, TEX, TBR, BOS)
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Post by zil on Aug 23, 2014 23:05:15 GMT -5
It sure would be nice if those grievances filed by the union cost Houston one or two of those picks.
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Post by azblue on Aug 24, 2014 10:29:16 GMT -5
...or if Houston is allowed to sign Aiken after the July 18 deadline as has been suggested by a national writer.
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Post by stevedillard on Aug 24, 2014 10:48:49 GMT -5
...or if Houston is allowed to sign Aiken after the July 18 deadline as has been suggested by a national writer. Not sure I see the benefit in that. Either hou gets a pick and Aiken goes in draft, or Hou signs him and loses pick. Either way the same players will be available to us.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Aug 24, 2014 10:54:58 GMT -5
...or if Houston is allowed to sign Aiken after the July 18 deadline as has been suggested by a national writer. Not sure I see the benefit in that. Either hou gets a pick and Aiken goes in draft, or Hou signs him and loses pick. Either way the same players will be available to us. Aiken isn't a lock to be a top 8 player in this draft, so we're better off if he signs with Houston IMO.
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Post by redsox4242 on Aug 24, 2014 12:46:50 GMT -5
With the remaining schedule and the way we have been playing lately, i think its possible we can get the 1st pick. We're playing bad baseball.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Aug 24, 2014 13:40:29 GMT -5
With the remaining schedule and the way we have been playing lately, i think its possible we can get the 1st pick. We're playing bad baseball. The first pick is exciting when there is a Strasburg or Harper at the top of the draft-eligible pile (and even they haven't really proved themselves as franchise players yet). There is no indication of any stud like that for next year's draft, is there? If not, the real question is how much of a first tier is there, versus where the pick is. To be honest, I'm more enthused about the fact that the Sox will get to pick near the top of EACH round rather than just the first round. The franchise has drafted well enough given their usual near-the-back-of-the-pack status that I'm anxious to see what happens when the team picks near the top of each round and has a better chance of picking up the best loose change each pick than always j-u-s-t missing out on players that were picked before their turn.
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Post by saysbill on Aug 24, 2014 17:22:54 GMT -5
Considering that the Sox won't be able to sign an IFA over $300K for the next two seasons, I'm excited about the bonus pool drafting so high will net them and what they could potentially do with it.
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Post by sammo420 on Aug 24, 2014 18:17:41 GMT -5
Considering that the Sox won't be able to sign an IFA over $300K for the next two seasons, I'm excited about the bonus pool drafting so high will net them and what they could potentially do with it. They can trade portions of their IFA pool away to other teams, hopefully they can get a comp pick in the draft from somebody for some of that IFA cap space. Doubt it happens but that's my dream.
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Post by Gwell55 on Aug 24, 2014 18:24:36 GMT -5
Considering that the Sox won't be able to sign an IFA over $300K for the next two seasons, I'm excited about the bonus pool drafting so high will net them and what they could potentially do with it. They can trade portions of their IFA pool away to other teams, hopefully they can get a comp pick in the draft from somebody for some of that IFA cap space. Doubt it happens but that's my dream. Maybe there is a loop hole they can find in the IFA bonus pool and they trade it to the yankees and visa versa so they get to spend more... Ya never know ... if they have a good enough lawyer.
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Post by sammo420 on Aug 24, 2014 19:26:14 GMT -5
They can trade portions of their IFA pool away to other teams, hopefully they can get a comp pick in the draft from somebody for some of that IFA cap space. Doubt it happens but that's my dream. Maybe there is a loop hole they can find in the IFA bonus pool and they trade it to the yankees and visa versa so they get to spend more... Ya never know ... if they have a good enough lawyer. I don't see that happening. Personally I'm not concerned about not being able to spend over 300k on IFA"s because they're such a crapshoot that the expensive ones have just as much chance of flaming out as a 250k does of becoming an all star, with me the pool money is an asset, though, and it's one that'll most likely have a good portion of it going to waste because our record gives us more pool money in the IFA market, too.
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Post by dewey1972 on Aug 24, 2014 22:43:31 GMT -5
With the remaining schedule and the way we have been playing lately, i think its possible we can get the 1st pick. We're playing bad baseball. The first pick is exciting when there is a Strasburg or Harper at the top of the draft-eligible pile (and even they haven't really proved themselves as franchise players yet). There is no indication of any stud like that for next year's draft, is there? If not, the real question is how much of a first tier is there, versus where the pick is.To be honest, I'm more enthused about the fact that the Sox will get to pick near the top of EACH round rather than just the first round. The franchise has drafted well enough given their usual near-the-back-of-the-pack status that I'm anxious to see what happens when the team picks near the top of each round and has a better chance of picking up the best loose change each pick than always j-u-s-t missing out on players that were picked before their turn. There isn't, at the moment, a consensus #1 pick the way Harper and Strasburg were. In general, I would've agreed with that assessment before the new CBA. Now, though, the value of the top pick is determined perhaps just as much by the slot value of the pick. The slot values increase dramatically near the top, especially in the top 4: last year the values went (in millions) 7.9, 6.8, 5.7, 4.6, 3.9, 3.6... If you don't think there's a big difference between the two guys you're choosing from at #4, you can see which will sign for half a million under slot (which would still be more than their slot value at #5) and then have that money to use later in the draft. If you can do that at the #1 spot, you can maybe save over a million. Of course, all of this is unlikely to affect the Sox, as odds are they won't slip that far. On the other hand, I actually don't think the protected pick is that important this year for the Sox. Hard to imagine them wanting to give out the kind of contract for a free agent that would require a draft pick from this year's crop. Certainly nice to not have it be as big a consideration, though.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 25, 2014 23:37:38 GMT -5
If the season ended today, BOS would have the #6 pick:
1. TEX ---- 2. HOU (Aiken supplemental pick, locked in at #2) 3. COL -2.0 4. HOU -3.0 5. ARI -3.5 6. BOS -5.5 7. CHC -7.0 8. MIN -7.0 9. PHI -7.5 10. CWS -8.0 (six-game losing streak) 11. SDO -9.0 12. NYM -9.5 13. CIN -11.5 14. TBR -12.5
BOS is 3.5 games out of an unprotected pick.
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, CWS, CHC, MIN, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, CIN, TEX, TBR, BOS)
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 26, 2014 6:06:36 GMT -5
Considering that the Sox won't be able to sign an IFA over $300K for the next two seasons, I'm excited about the bonus pool drafting so high will net them and what they could potentially do with it. The Red Sox always spend to their pool limit, regardless of their IFA pool, so I'm not sure I see the relation. I would say this eases the pain of another last place finish more than anything.
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Post by sammo420 on Aug 26, 2014 11:35:24 GMT -5
If the season ended today, BOS would have the #6 pick: 1. TEX ---- (assumes Mon win) 2. HOU (Aiken supplemental pick, locked in at #2)3. COL -2.0 (assumes Mon win) 4. HOU -3.0 5. ARI -3.5 6. BOS -5.5 7. CHC -7.0 8. MIN -7.0 9. PHI -7.5 10. CWS -8.0 (six-game losing streak) 11. SDO -9.0 (assumes Mon loss) 12. NYM -9.513. CIN -11.514. TBR -12.5BOS is 3.5 games out of an unprotected pick. (tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, CWS, CHC, MIN, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, CIN, TEX, TBR, BOS)I'd love to move up a spot or two but think this is where we end up picking. Maybe they can shut Papi down for teh season as a precaution?
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