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Battle for top 11 (protected) draft picks in 2015 draft
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Post by sammo420 on Aug 18, 2014 3:49:09 GMT -5
Yes, HS players are at higher risk of busting, but they usually also have higher ceilings than college talent available at similar spots in the draft. That's the trade off-- high risk, but high reward. Tyler Beede comes to mind as a great example. Bregman and Fulmer do as well.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 18, 2014 10:47:57 GMT -5
Yes, HS players are at higher risk of busting, but they usually also have higher ceilings than college talent available at similar spots in the draft. That's the trade off-- high risk, but high reward. I know that is the theory, but it really is more of one of those ideas in baseball that people accept without really challenging, but when challenged, it doesn't appear to be true. It certainly isn't true in the case of the Red Sox. Their first round (or first pick) high school draft choices have yielded two players in ten years who made it to the major leagues, Bowden and Kelly. There probably will be a couple more in the next couple of years in Swihart and Owens, but there also are the college guys, Johnson, Marrero, and Barnes who almost certainly will get their shots. I just did a quick pass through of all the first round picks from 2004 on and I did not see any evidence supporting that theory. I didn't look close enough to see opposite evidence, either. What stood out was the sort of randomness of it all: first picks in the first round not making it out of the low minors, both high school and college stars with big bonuses never getting close to the majors. In every draft, with only a handful of exceptions, there is no order to the rate of success. There usually are what turn out to be better players further down in the list. So the history shows the estimates of who are the best players at the time of each pick in the draft have a poor record of accuracy. The one year I looked at in detail was 2004. There were some good players drafted in the first round. High schoolers included Homer Bailey, Neil Walker, Billy Butler, Phil Hughes, and Gio Gonzalez. College players included Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, Stephen Drew, J.P. Howell, and Huston Street (the second to last pick in that round). There seemed to be a relatively even balance between successful and unsuccessful high school and college players, and there were quite a few of both. Being a first round pick is no guarantee of success. Some of the later drafts show that even better. Most amusingly was the fact that, arguably, the best player in the 2004 draft, at least the best position player, was not picked until the second round when the Red Sox nabbed Dustin Pedroia.
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Post by cardsox on Aug 18, 2014 11:03:04 GMT -5
Yes, HS players are at higher risk of busting, but they usually also have higher ceilings than college talent available at similar spots in the draft. That's the trade off-- high risk, but high reward. I know that is the theory, but it really is more of one of those ideas in baseball that people accept without really challenging, but when challenged, it doesn't appear to be true. It certainly isn't true in the case of the Red Sox. Their first round (or first pick) high school draft choices have yielded two players in ten years who made it to the major leagues, Bowden and Kelly. There probably will be a couple more in the next couple of years in Swihart and Owens, but there also are the college guys, Johnson, Marrero, and Barnes who almost certainly will get their shots. I just did a quick pass through of all the first round picks from 2004 on and I did not see any evidence supporting that theory. I didn't look close enough to see opposite evidence, either. What stood out was the sort of randomness of it all: first picks in the first round not making it out of the low minors, both high school and college stars with big bonuses never getting close to the majors. In every draft, with only a handful of exceptions, there is no order to the rate of success. There usually are what turn out to be better players further down in the list. So the history shows the estimates of who are the best players at the time of each pick in the draft have a poor record of accuracy. The one year I looked at in detail was 2004. There were some good players drafted in the first round. High schoolers included Homer Bailey, Neil Walker, Billy Butler, Phil Hughes, and Gio Gonzalez. College players included Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, Stephen Drew, J.P. Howell, and Huston Street (the second to last pick in that round). There seemed to be a relatively even balance between successful and unsuccessful high school and college players, and there were quite a few of both. Being a first round pick is no guarantee of success. Some of the later drafts show that even better. Most amusingly was the fact that, arguably, the best player in the 2004 draft, at least the best position player, was not picked until the second round when the Red Sox nabbed Dustin Pedroia.
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Post by cardsox on Aug 18, 2014 11:08:44 GMT -5
The main problem with your looking at only the Sox is they have been drafting later most years. I would guess most of the top hs talent has been taken by then and the bust chance goes way up. Drafting this high should increase our chance to find a more sure thing, although we all know there is no sure thing.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 18, 2014 13:12:34 GMT -5
The main problem with your looking at only the Sox is they have been drafting later most years. I would guess most of the top hs talent has been taken by then and the bust chance goes way up. Drafting this high should increase our chance to find a more sure thing, although we all know there is no sure thing. I don't think drafting position has much to do with it. In the last five drafts: There were 139 high school players drafted and 119 JC/college players picked. Picks 1-10: 24 high school, 26 college 11-20: 18 high school, 32 college 21-30: 28 high school, 21 college 31-40: 29 high school, 20 college 41-50: 18 high school, 12 college 51 and up: 22 high school, 8 college That more high school players are picked towards the end of the first round than elsewhere is about the only consistency among these drafts. There is a fairly even distribution otherwise. And you are right, there are no sure things. There have been quite a few busts among the first ten picks. I haven't yet compared the bust rate between all draft picks by high school and college. What I do notice is that there are quite a few college players from the last five drafts already in the majors and very few high school players. That is to be expected, but I don't think it evens out over time. I'll have something on that at another time.
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Post by cardsox on Aug 18, 2014 20:25:48 GMT -5
From your chart I guess I would be most curious about the 24 hs picked in top 10. Still early to see most of them in ML, but maybe looking at where they stand in top prospect lists would be interesting.
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Post by sibbysisti on Aug 19, 2014 6:44:31 GMT -5
That shouldn't be hard to do. After identifying the player and the org. that drafted him, go to mlb.com and look up in top 20 prospects under "roster". Or you could go to BA to get its top 100.
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Post by arzjake on Aug 19, 2014 19:54:32 GMT -5
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Post by Gwell55 on Aug 19, 2014 21:00:36 GMT -5
They already have him ... his name is Manuel Margot
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 19, 2014 22:31:26 GMT -5
If the season ended today:
1. TEX ---- 2. HOU (Aiken supplemental pick, locked in at #2) 3. COL -1.0 4. HOU -4.5 5. ARI -4.5 (four-game losing streak) 6. PHI -6.5 7. CHC -7.0 8. MIN -7.5 9. BOS -8.0 10. NYM -10.0 11. CWS -10.5 12. SDO -10.5 13. CIN -12.5 14. TBR -13.0
BOS is 2.5 games out of an unprotected pick.
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, CWS, CHC, MIN, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, CIN, TEX, TBR, BOS)
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Post by sibbysisti on Aug 20, 2014 7:53:52 GMT -5
Thank you for these updates. It's kind of a downer, though. Kind of like being a visitor at hospice care. Sox, on a brighter note, are only one and a half games from the sixth spot, though there's still a lot of baseball to be played.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 20, 2014 8:01:21 GMT -5
Thank you for these updates. It's kind of a downer, though. Kind of like being a visitor at hospice care. Sox, on a brighter note, are only one and a half games from the sixth spot, though there's still a lot of baseball to be played. Dr. Kevorkian should end this season for us. Merciful.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 20, 2014 8:40:59 GMT -5
The last six weeks of the season is critical to try to get some of the youngsters acclimated to the majors. We've obviously seen that the jump from AAA to the majors is not an easy or smooth one, so six weeks of non-pressurized major league baseball should pay long-term dividends for the organization.
Or you can focus on the team's record and whine about it. Or, to follow with the metaphor, you can end your own season and we'll see you in spring training, miraculously healed.
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 619
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Post by alnipper on Aug 20, 2014 9:35:43 GMT -5
Do we lose a 2nd round pick if we sign a free agent who has a Q.O.?
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 20, 2014 9:57:19 GMT -5
If we have a protected pick, we would lose our next highest pick.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 20, 2014 10:16:26 GMT -5
If we have a protected pick, we would lose our next highest pick. If the Oakland pick was the next highest, would we lose that as well? How does draft picks that were traded factor in?
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 20, 2014 10:28:56 GMT -5
If we have a protected pick, we would lose our next highest pick. If the Oakland pick was the next highest, would we lose that as well? How does draft picks that were traded factor in? Competitive balance picks can be forfeited for signing QO players. BOS's competitive balance pick is after its second round pick. Therefore, if BOS were to sign two QO players (hypothetically), it would lose its top two unprotected picks. If its first pick was in the top eleven, and therefore protected, BOS would lose its second round pick and its competitive balance pick (assuming it does not QO Koji and then lose him, gaining a comp pick).
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Post by sammo420 on Aug 20, 2014 11:18:03 GMT -5
That poor horse, what the hell did he do to you anyway?
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Post by rangoon82 on Aug 21, 2014 21:44:49 GMT -5
Its been a banner week for this thread so far.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 21, 2014 21:56:09 GMT -5
If the season ended today, BOS would have the #8 pick:
1. TEX ---- 2. HOU (Aiken supplemental pick, locked in at #2) 3. COL -1.0 4. ARI -3.0 (six-game losing streak) 5. HOU -4.0 6. CHC -5.5 7. PHI -6.5 8. BOS -6.5 (five-game losing streak) 9. MIN -7.0 10. CWS -9.5 11. NYM -10.0 12. SDO -10.0 13. CIN -11.0 (six-game losing streak) 14. TBR -12.5
BOS is 3.5 games out of an unprotected pick.
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, CWS, CHC, MIN, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, CIN, TEX, TBR, BOS)
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Post by lonborgski on Aug 22, 2014 7:55:24 GMT -5
If the season ended today, BOS would have the #8 pick: 1. TEX ---- 2. HOU (Aiken supplemental pick, locked in at #2)3. COL -1.0 4. ARI -3.0 (six-game losing streak) 5. HOU -4.0 6. CHC -5.5 7. PHI -6.5 8. BOS -6.5 (five-game losing streak) 9. MIN -7.0 10. CWS -9.5 11. NYM -10.0 12. SDO -10.013. CIN -11.0 (six-game losing streak) 14. TBR -12.5BOS is 3.5 games out of an unprotected pick. (tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, CWS, CHC, MIN, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, CIN, TEX, TBR, BOS)Because the Sox lose the tiebreaker to every other team, we are really only two (2) wins "ahead" of SDO to avoid the first unprotected pick. For example, if the Sox go 17-18, they finish at 73-89; if SDO wins 3 less in their last 36 (14-22), then they tie us with a 73-89 final record and they pick ahead of us because of the tiebreaker. The good news is we have a four game cushion on CIN, so it's really a San Diego losing streak we should be worrying about.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 22, 2014 9:19:34 GMT -5
A recent scouting report from BP.com has him profiling as a 4th OF, unable to handle CF on more than a part-time basis. If we had spent our #7 pick on a HS LFer, ...
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 23, 2014 6:48:55 GMT -5
With last night's Koji implosion and the team's sixth straight loss, BOS is currently in the #7 spot.
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Post by sibbysisti on Aug 23, 2014 8:47:26 GMT -5
C'mon Cubbies!
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Post by saysbill on Aug 23, 2014 11:28:41 GMT -5
According to espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/group/9, the Sox currently have the 6th pick and are 2.5G behind ARZ for the 3rd pick (really 3G out from the 3rd pick due to tiebreakers?).
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